sozobe wrote:Well, then you weren't responding to FreeDuck's quote, here.
Oh fer chrissakes. Yes, I
was responding to FreeDuck's quote. I was merely taking another variable into consideration.
To be sure, yes, in the primary polls Hillary has been leading in all the non-early primary states but that in itself doesnt say much, since people there just havent paid much attention. Those numbers will change now. Plus, as you say, a lot of black voters have been hesitant to choose for Obama because they were afraid a black man would be unelectable. That last dynamic especially will change too, as they are encouraged and dare to switch to Obama. That should show up in SC especially, and lead to a surge in Obama support and a drop in Hillary support.
But we were talking about whether Edwards would still have a chance to get back in the race thanks to the South.
FreeDuck said she thought he might - at the cost of Hillary, natch, not Obama. And I'd love to believe it. But what Hillary's surprisingly positive match-up numbers against the Republicans in the South tell me is that she might have an unexpectedly broad appeal in those states. Broader than Obama's, in fact, and the difference almost certainly lies among white voters. And if white voters are receptive enough to the idea of Hillary as President for her to outdo Kerry's election result there even more, clearly more, than in the rest of America, that tells me that the South wont be helping much to knock her out of the primaries. It tells me that between her and Obama, the region doesnt offer Edwards much of a chance.
But I'd love to be proven wrong of course.
