Obama '08?

I expect Iowa to really impact those numbers though. Again and again, I've seen black people say that they'd love to vote for Obama but just don't think he can win. He can win.

McCain especially, if he emerges, would easily beat Obama.

nimh wrote:

Perhaps surprisingly, Hillary doesnt look badly positioned at all in the southern states.. better than Obama, actually (perhaps because of race?).

I expect Iowa to really impact those numbers though. Again and again, I've seen black people say that they'd love to vote for Obama but just don't think he can win. He can win.

but I think there is a big difference between Iowa and Alabama, if you know what I mean.

I share your affinity for Huckabee. That's a personal response arising from appreciation of both his sense of humor and what I consider to be a fundamentally honest and charitable nature.

To me, the great blessing of his win and future prospects relates to a serious realignment within the modern conservative movement, a realignment which will (unless the republicans en masse are really as stupid and ideological as the Coulter, Limbaugh crowd). If they are that stupid, they'll really get crushed. But such a crushing seems surely to mean that the party will be forced, slowly or more quickly, back towards a less extremist set of policy positions and values.

McCain especially, if he emerges, would easily beat Obama.

I think this scenario will look more likely in the near future although I hope Edwards somehow gets the nomination.

As the voting begins in earnest, what are we to make of the Republican candidates? That the "conservative base" is dissatisfied with the GOP field is probably the single most common observation of this presidential campaign season. The second most common observation is probably that the Republican candidate, whoever it turns out to be, is doomed to defeat. National Review ran a recent cover story positing not only that the GOP is likely to lose the presidency in 2008, but that the loss may mark the beginning of a long period of wandering in the wilderness as the party gropes to redefine itself after George W. Bush's calamitous tenure. Ramesh Ponnuru and Richard Lowry write:

Conservatives tend to blame their travails on Republican politicians' missteps and especially on their inability to communicate. But the public's unhappiness with Republicans goes much deeper than any such explanation. A mishandled war, coupled with intellectual exhaustion on the domestic front, has soured the public on them. It is not just the politicians but conservative voters themselves who are out of touch with the public, stuck in the glory days of the 1980s and not thinking nearly enough about how to make their principles relevant to the concerns of today. Unforeseen events could yet change the political environment radically. As it stands, Republicans are sleep-walking into catastrophe.[1]

There's an excitement about this year's election that I haven't seen in many, many years. MSNBC was saying that this is the first true non-imbumbancy election in 80 years. I'm not sure how they are defining that, but maybe that's the source of the excitement.

FreeDuck wrote:

Clearly I'm no political analyst, but I see your dream as a distinct possibility. The southern states are yet to come.

Perhaps surprisingly, Hillary doesnt look badly positioned at all in the southern states.. better than Obama, actually (perhaps because of race?). It's more likely in the Midwest and Northwest that Obama has all the advantage. I dont know that either offers Edwards the chance to squeeze in between after all - tho I sure appreciate the hopeful note!

MSNBC was saying that this is the first true non-imbumbancy election in 80 years. I'm not sure how they are defining that, but maybe that's the source of the excitement.

I just had to bound back and turn on the TV to see if Obama had given his speech yet. Huckabee was giving his (in front of scary Chuck Norris and scary, overly-emotive blonde)