Quote:Clinton leads Giuliani in swing state poll
Four hundred fifty-some days before the 2008 election, we get a little queasy when we see the words "Florida," "Pennsylvania" and "Ohio" in the same sentence, let alone in the same poll.
Here we go, anyway.
In a Quinnipiac University swing state poll out this morning, Hillary Clinton holds slim, within-the-margin-of-error leads over Rudy Giuliani in Florida and Pennsylvania and is tied with him in Ohio.
In other possible matchups, Giuliani holds small leads over Barack Obama in Florida and Ohio and a larger lead over him in Pennsylvania, but both Obama and Clinton hold big leads over Fred Thompson in all three states.
Quinnipiac's Peter Brown says the big news here is that Clinton seems to be picking up support from people who didn't use to think much of her. "Not only does she lead by a nose in two of the most important swing states in the Electoral College, but she is turning around independent and Republican voters who previously viewed her negatively," Brown says in a Quinnipiac press release. "In the last two months the share of voters who view her favorably has increased to about 50 percent -- an important milestone -- while the numbers who view her unfavorably has dropped. It is not huge movement, but it is consistent across all three states."
http://www.salon.com/politics/war_room/
Not being one of that low sort of human who revels in "cough...I...uh...cough, cough...told you so" I obviously won't say it here.
My guess is that this trend suggest by the poll is accurate and that it will continue to manifest in further polls as time goes on. It is, I think, a consequence of several factors:
- her performance in the debates (competence/knowledge, projection of warmth, projection of strength),
- the dissatisfaction among moderates and even republicans with their candidate choices (related here is the breakdown of conservative movement unanimity/certainty),
- the growing broad electoral dissatisfaction with Bush and republican governance/ideology,
- the competence of her campaign
Assuming that her campaign makes no major error (and that no unsettling event occurs in the interim) then her impediments will be the primaries, and if those go well for her then the problem/task will be to best the slime-machine that the right will set to no-holds-barred (was Foster murdered by one of Hillary's lesbian friends from Moscow? etc). How much bite any of that will have with moderates (okie and McG are always famished, it is in their natures) isn't certain yet. But I'm optimistic that the broad and growing distrust, across the electorate, with what has gone on over the last six years will prove a significant and effective temper against the slime and fear-mongering.