@Cycloptichorn,
Cycloptichorn wrote:
Besides, I could turn right around and say you fit the exact same bill. Right? I mean, for how many years now have you predicted runaway inflation that has, over and over again, failed to materialize?
Cycloptichorn
That is an interesting issue. The historical record leaves little doubt that larger increases in the money supply are a precursor to inflation. Indeed the founding charter of the Federal Reserve is based in major part on that observation and the need to control the money supply so as to limit the danger associated with such inflation.
To reduce risks arising from the 2007 collapsing real estate bubble and associated market collapse the Government, through the TARP program, and later the Fed, through its normal activity, added enormous liquidity in a largely successful effort to stem an unfolding banking crisis. Since then, our government, and governments in Europe have struggled with an entirely separate crisis of far greater long-term signifcance arising from historically very high levels of government debt in the U.S. and Europe - compounded in the U.S. by rapidly expanded annual deficits and associated additions to already dangerously high debt levels. As a result local market collapses for government bonds have already occurred in Europe, with further contaigon already threatened in Italy and beyond. So far the U.S. has been insulated from risk simply by being the least immediately risky haven for money looking for a shelter from the storm. ( That is a deludingly comfortable situation that could end suddenly and without warning.)
However, we too have already seen a reduced demand for our government debt. This quietly growing problem has been temporarily tamped down by the Federal Reserve's massive QE2 program and subsequent massive purchases of Federal debt, all of which have even more massively added to the money supply, thereby creating significant potential for an inflationary spiral should the economy begin to recover significantly.
This continuing problem of a stagnant economy and high (and still rising) levels of government debt has got us in a very dangerous corner from which there is no escape without serious economic risks - continued stagnation, or inflation .... or both. There are also historical patterns that add to the uncertainty. Governments burdened with high levels of debt relative to economic output very often resort to inflationary policies as a way of escaping their debt in real economic terms by diluting the wealth of holders of their currencies.
It is true, as Cyclo writes, that inflation has not yet occurred despite the large scale expansion of our money supply. However, it is also true that the Fed, tied as it is to a government that requires low borowing costs to continue so as to sustain its high spending levels, is no longer able to perform its mandated function of limiting the inflation danger. There's a lot of liquidity out there and no available means of restraining it while we're in this corner.