Obama '08?

sozobe wrote:

As in, if these people have to choose between Rudy McRomney and a Democrat, they might choose Obama -- but not Edwards or Hillary.

In which states would there be a significant number of people who'd vote for Obama but not for either Edwards or Hillary?

Edwards and Hillary do well, apparently, on opposite ends of the scale - Hillary does better, or as well as, Edwards in mobilised blue states, while Edwards does clearly better in the red and purple states.

In national polls, Obama has long outperformed Hillary in the "electability" test of match-up polls against Rudy McRomney, but has either run even with or only edged out Edwards. (Not just recently.)

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RealClearPolitics is a conservative site but it gathers poll data the same that other sites do. Plus, they maintain a rolling average.

See their page on the Democratic presidential nomination

And then they keep a graph that tracks how their rolling average has developed over the last three months, and currently it looks like this (plus, you get the current Intrade market prices thrown in as bonus):

http://img522.imageshack.us/img522/3198/rcppollsdemif6.jpg

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Talking about triangulation... TNR The Plank observes Hillary:

Quote:

HILLARY'S IRAQ VOTE:

This paragraph from the Washington Post is a real classic. Try to count how many times her position ping-pongs:

Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.), the 2008 Democratic presidential front-runner, has long opposed setting a withdrawal date. But she voted for the Feingold measure as a message to Bush. Later, she sought to distance herself from the amendment by stressing its procedural nature, though when pressed by reporters, she acknowledged that she supports the Feingold proposal. Still, she said, "I'm not going to speculate on what I'm going to be voting on in the future."
Similarly, a rival campaign flags these clashing headlines:

AP: [b]After hedging, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton commits to Iraq withdrawal deadline[/b] (Devlin Barrett, 5/16/07, [url=http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/politics/20070516-1600-clinton-iraq.html]SignOnSanDiego.com[/url]) AP: [b]Clinton Won't Commit on Iraq Deadline [/b](Devlin Barrett, 5/16/07, [url=http://www.spokesmanreview.com/ap/story.asp?AP_ID=D8P5Q0Q00]Spokesman-Review[/url])

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Yeah, I kind of squinted at what I wrote after I read it. I'm not sure. Don't have a strong case anyway.

Thanks for this graph, it's cool. I'm surprised to see Obama doing so well, actually, if it's still dispiritingly low compared to Hillary. Especially that uptick at the end.

Why's Gore so high? Weird. I wonder who those people will go to if he stays out?

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sozobe wrote:

Yeah, I kind of squinted at what I wrote after I read it. I'm not sure. Don't have a strong case anyway.

Thanks for this graph, it's cool. I'm surprised to see Obama doing so well, actually, if it's still dispiritingly low compared to Hillary. Especially that uptick at the end.

Why's Gore so high? Weird. I wonder who those people will go to if he stays out?

Obama is okay. It's like Basketball; you need to be within a certain distance going into the last few minutes, and then play well. Leads evaporate quick in this biz.

In fact, I wonder: have any of us kept in mind how absolutely, completely crazy this year's campaign season is going to be??!?! Iraq is still going to suck, Bush will be scandal-ridden the whole time and taking incredible heat... it's going to be a madhouse.

Gotta keep an eye on the media... grr... I'll never forget how they f*cked Dean over.

Cycloptichorn

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And what's more, the Republicans are absolutely eating each other over this immigration bill. This will be unbelievably fun to watch. The Dems, all of them, need to just let this run for a while - while keeping the investigations going, of course.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2007/5/17/162243/280

Cycloptichorn

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Cyclo says,
In fact, I wonder: have any of us kept in mind how absolutely, completely crazy this year's campaign season is going to be??!

Well, yes, sure.

On watch for the Dean thing --- who can prepare against an amped microphone? (as I understood the circumstance). The weirdness was that that mattered.

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Soz,

Thought you might be interested in this:

Here's the announcement:

Quote:

There are currently nine videos available and we will continue to update more as well as regularly feature closed captioning in future videos.
"You know, in many ways, this constituency has been forgotten," says Tom. "Obama's campaign is the first to take this seriously and do something about it, and he's got my support."

Here's the link to the cc'd videos:

http://origin.barackobama.com/closedcaptioning/

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ossobuco wrote:

Cyclo says,
In fact, I wonder: have any of us kept in mind how absolutely, completely crazy this year's campaign season is going to be??!

Well, yes, sure.

On watch for the Dean thing --- who can prepare against an amped microphone? (as I understood the circumstance). The weirdness was that that mattered.

The weirdness of Dean was exposed, thats all, and people realized he was a whacko.

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He's been doing pretty well since for a "wacko", architecting much of the Dems' 2006 victory and all..

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Agreed, Nimh! Laughing

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Oh, thanks Butrflynet!

I contacted them too, but I don't have as good of a story I guess. Hmph.

I suspect a lot of people contacted them and this was the guy they chose to be the symbol. (Vet, etc.)

Anyway, it's good news and I salute 'em.

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I'm reading an interesting article about Bloomberg and the possibility that he might run as an independent. As I read the reasons that he wants to do so and why people think it's viable, like, "People are so sick of the polarization of politics and he could make the case that it's time to move beyond the two parties and that he's the one to lead us," I wonder...

If Obama doesn't get the Democratic nomination, should he run as an Independent?

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Interesting idea, Sozobe. I wonder if he would.
I sort of like Bloomberg, in contrast to many others running. But, natch, not at the top of my list.

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I don't see how Bloomberg's decision to run as an independent would depend on Obama not getting the nomination. And I doubt that was Sozobe's question. I think her question was whether Obama should pull a Lieberman if he loses the nomination. And if this was indeed her question, my answer would be no -- not if Obama intends to run on a platform of non-polarization.

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sozobe wrote:

I'm reading an interesting article about Bloomberg and the possibility that he might run as an independent. As I read the reasons that he wants to do so and why people think it's viable, like, "People are so sick of the polarization of politics and he could make the case that it's time to move beyond the two parties and that he's the one to lead us," I wonder...

If Obama doesn't get the Democratic nomination, should he run as an Independent?

Come on Soz... Dude is WAY too far left. Who do you think wins a three way race between Left, Left and Right. Laughing

YOU would be against it.

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I'm sure you guys are right. Just a spare thought. (Sure hope he wins the Dem nomination...)

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sozobe wrote:

I'm sure you guys are right. Just a spare thought. (Sure hope he wins the Dem nomination...)

Fugeddaboudit. At this point of the election cycle, Hillary Clinton is invincible, just as Gary Hart and Paul Tsongas were ... oh, wait!

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You forgot the lean mean Dean Machine. Laughing

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2 Speeches Show Contrasting Campaign Styles

(source: Washington Post Sunday, 20.05.07, page 4)

Quote:

Obama Offers Inspiration; Clinton Details Action Plan
...
Obama has generated considerable enthusiasm on college campuses as a candidate who promises the sharpest break with the polarized politics of the past decade, while Clinton is counting on support from younger women to help fuel a potentially history-making campaign that is more grounded in the political establishment.

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