Obama '08?

Vietnamnurse wrote:

O'Bill....lighten up on Teeny Boone...she is a good person. She is fed up with everything that has happened for far too long. I have known her on Abuzz and on the PUPS. She doesn't want to leave the US any more than I do...but sometimes you get the feeling that Nova Scotia or Scotland wouldn't be so bad when you have a mad man (Cheney), and his stooge (Bush) in power.

I have said this before and I will say it again....Abraham Lincoln had very little practical experience in governing in 1860 and look how that turned out. Cheney, on the other hand, and Rumsfeld....well experience doesnt show me a damn thing!

Hi there!
Thanks for the head's up! I remember you, too! Don't know the poster, but he should not think, what I posted doesn't pertain to him! Ever heard of martial law? I have a sinking feeling that Bush is going to try a coup d'etat!
They've tried everything else! What? You mean it isn't 1984? Coulda fooled me! This Al Quaida freak isn't about color, it's about power! The Jose Padilla trial starts today. Can't believe they're actually going to try him, after holding him over 4 years, most of the charges dropped, because they won't stick! The man was tortured, denied his rights as an American and you have people running around calling hispanics, "Macaca", when their people have been in North America, as long as the Native Americans! Moving to Canada or the Bahamas!

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OCCOM BILL wrote:

nimh wrote:
Hhmm.. see what Soz says..
She ducked the question... What's that tell ya?

Are you addressing me? Not ducking; ignoring, is more like it! Unless, you've walked a mile in my shoes, yada, yada, don't have to justify my 60 plus years, as a Black woman, to anyone! Not going to! Sick and tired of being sick and tired! Southern born, City bred, can tell a phony a mile away! Not even poor Blacks are ALL on welfare, the way the media portrays us and as one Democrat put it, "He's so articulate and so CLEAN"! What? Yeah, I ignore IG-norance! Read some Black History, like Malcolm X or the history of why the Black Panthers were organized, so as not to be mixed up with the mild-mannered ML King and other passive agressive, protest figures! Never followed King, or X! Neither one lived, where I did, really gave a schitt, what happened to us anyway, really! Don't believe in having another Black, designated as my leader! My leader, is God and it's personal! No, just ignoring you, if you mean me! If not, never mind! Thanks again, to a progressive Pupsters, like you, Nurse! Cool

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"Soz" is me, teenyboone.

And the "macaca" comment was about an Indian man, not Hispanic. (Indian as in India [though he was born here], not Native American.)

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From Wikipedia:

Macaca[1] is a pejorative epithet used by francophone colonialists in Central Africa's Belgian Congo for the native population.[2] It may be derived from the name of the genus comprising macaque monkeys. The word macaque has also been used as a racial slur. The macaque's genus name, Macaca, is a latinization of the Bantu (Kongo) ma-kako,[3] meaning "monkey".

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sozobe wrote:

I'm wondering about the import. Obama seems to be having a general down moment -- the debrates were OK but not slam-dunks, perhaps, or people who liked him in a general way learned more about his specific opinions about various issues, I don't know.

Well, the SurveyUSA poll was also simply weird in how it had Obama doing so badly in comparison with Hillary and Edwards. Those proportions are not reflected (or not yet) in most other polls.

The data therefore primarily has, I think, interesting info about the comparison between Edwards and Hillary; and regarding Obama's numbers, the interest doesnt lie so much in his totals in this set of polls, but in their geographical distribution.

Eg, Obama apparently does strikingly well, relative to the other candidates, on the Pacific coast - California, Oregon and Washington.

On the other hand, there is the South. The fact that Obama loses against a Republican in the South may seem a duh thing, even if it is against a relative unknown like Fred Thompson (who in this poll fares clearly worse against all three Democrats than Giualiani or McCain do). But the fact that he loses in four of the five Southern states included while Hillary and Edwards actually win, big, even - that's significant.

It depends on whether you believe the Dems can win without making inroads in the South. If you dont, then the fact that Obama seems to clearly run into larger problems than the others (because of his race?) is troubling.

sozobe wrote:

also am not sure if this generic Republican idea, while interesting, is that useful. McCain and Giuliani had their high-flying moments, and it's very unclear whether Fred Thompson will survive the current high-flying moment (not to mention whether he'll actually run).

Hmm, I think there is a misunderstanding there. Despite all the flattering media coverage of hium as a kind of potential knight on white horse, Fred Thompson is not at all having a "current high-flying moment". Look at this poll that I analysed. All three of the Democrats beat Thompson in almost all of the states. The Democrats do much worse against McCain and certainly Giuliani than they do in this match-up against Thompson.

That is actually what I was trying to say with that "generic Republican" thing. Those who choose Thompson over Hillary or Obama would largely, I am guessing, vote for any Republican over that particular Democrat. So basically, (I am hypothesising), a match-up against Thompson measures almost solely how many voters the three Democratic candidates respectively chase in or keep out of the "any Republican" category.

Thats why I think it might be a better comparative measure of the attraction of the respective Democrats than when you pit them against a well-known Republican contender like Giuliani who exerts his own push and pull effects. Thompson, being still so unknown, exerts little of either.

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I did misunderstand, sorry -- the first result in the poll (Kentucky) showed Thompson beating Obama, I didn't pay close enough attention to the rest.

Quote:

But the fact that he loses in four of the five Southern states included while Hillary and Edwards actually win, big, even - that's significant.

Maybe. I'll have to come back to this. (Thought I'd have a few minutes, just got an important email.)

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nimh wrote:

Hmm, I think there is a misunderstanding there. Despite all the flattering media coverage of hium as a kind of potential knight on white horse, Fred Thompson is not at all having a "current high-flying moment". Look at this poll that I analysed. All three of the Democrats beat Thompson in almost all of the states. The Democrats do much worse against McCain and certainly Giuliani than they do in this match-up against Thompson.

Uhm, apologies for excessive italicization..

(I should make that my sig line..)

I know it comes across as hectoring. Sorry about that.

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nimh wrote:

I found an interesting poll of Survey USA, which pits the three main Democratic candidates against Fred Thompson, and measures the outcome state-by-state across 16 states. [..]

Surprisingly, Obama fares badly in this poll, matching up worse than Hillary in 11 of the 16 states. Thats odd, as in national polls he usually outdoes Hillary in match-ups against Republicans.

Have to add here that, by sheer coincidence, "My Yahoo" pulled up an article today from Angus-Reid Global Monitor (which tracks opinion polls from around the world), which shows the same pattern: Obama doing actually worse than either Hillary and Edwards in match-ups with Republicans.

Hillary, Edwards Lead Republicans in U.S. Race

It lists the results of a Marist poll this month that has Hillary and Edwards beating McCain by 5% and 10%, respectively, while McCain would supposedly beat Obama by 7%. Similarly, Hillary and Edwards are listed as beating Giuliani as well, by 5% and 6%, respectively, whereas Giuliani would beat Obama by 2%.

I dunno. For now I'd still dismiss these two polls, on this particular count, as outliers. A quick check on Polling Report shows that other recent polls by Newsweek, Quinnipiac Univ. and Diageo/Hotline all still have Obama doing clearly better than Hillary in match-ups against Giuliani and McCain, and slightly better than Edwards or running even with him. So thats three polls against two.

If instead of two outliers, this would become a trend, it would have grave consequences for Obama's candidacy, because it would hack right at one of its main pillars. Many Obama sympathisers support him because he is the anti-Hillary - eloquent where she is wooden, conciliatory where she is polarising - and, not least, electable where she is not. For people who were afraid that Hillary would never, ever make it in a general election, the Obama candidacy has been an infusion of hope: here's someone who would be able to do it. But if polls start showing Obama actually doing worse in match-ups than not just Edwards, but even Hillary, that rationale dissolves rapidly.

Well, just two polls, with a year to go..

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nimh, I believe your observations on current polls are pretty accurate, and I agree with you. However, I also believe that Obama will show a stronger lead as we get closer to November 2008. I'm a believer in Obama.

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That was kind of what I thought re: the Thompson poll, in terms of differentials, that it reflected an Obama downswing in general.

But I came here to say it was a crazy day and my brain isn't functioning very well so I'll goof around a bit (that I can do with a low-functioning brain) and then try to recover whatever thoughts I started to have when I said I'd come back to this later, later.

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Well I've got some goofy material to enjoy for this thread as well, as it happens.. Smile

Quote:

Tiny Irish Village Is Latest Place to Claim Obama as Its Own

Washington Post
May 13, 2007

MONEYGALL, Ireland -- Here they call him O'Bama.

Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois, Democratic candidate for president, is the talk of this village because recently unearthed records indicate that he is a son of Moneygall.

Stephen Neill, a local Anglican rector, said church documents he has found, along with census, immigration and other records tracked down by U.S. genealogists, appear to show that Obama's great-great-great-grandfather, Fulmuth Kearney, was reared in Moneygall, then left for America in 1850, when he was 19. [..]

Kearney sailed to New York aboard the S.S. Marmion at a time when legions of Irish were leaving their famine-stricken island. The shoemaker's son made a life in America, and his family line eventually produced Ann Durham, who was born in Kansas, [..] married a Kenyan, [and] had a son [who is] now a leading candidate to become president of the United States.

While neither Obama nor his campaign has confirmed the connection, it has created a buzz in Moneygall, which has one stoplight, two pubs and a population of 298.

"Sure, it's great!" said Henry Healy, 22, a villager who said family records indicate he is distantly related to Obama. Like many Moneygall residents, he is suddenly following the U.S. presidential race more closely and rooting for his kinsman. "It would be brilliant if he won because for one thing, he is related to me, and also it would be good for the village."

When Ronald Reagan became president, it brought notoriety and tourism to his ancestral home in Ballyporeen, in County Tipperary. Moneygall, on the Tipperary-Offaly border, wouldn't mind that kind of a boost; there is already talk here of a need for a coffee shop to cater to the curious who might stop by. [..]

Despite Ireland's rapid urbanization, Moneygall remains a quiet stop on the busy N7 road that runs through the green, hilly heart of the country, a place where families still have cows and time to chat.

"It's brought an uplift to the village," said Daphne Powell, who serves soft ice cream on the main street. There hasn't been such excitement here since a locally bred horse, Papillon, won the prestigious Grand National in England seven years ago, overcoming 33-1 odds. [..]

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Cool! :-D

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I read the NY article a bit ago now. Uh, not whelmed. I'm less interventionist than him and most other save the world folk. He seems all too happy to get along, to me, wise as he may be, and as real as I think that his mediating instinct and motivation is.

Not that I won't vote for him, but I'm not whooping.

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sozobe wrote:

I did? What question? If he's insane? Not at all, I think it's interesting stuff.

Now, it may well be that I'm insane too for finding it interesting, but that's another question...

If that's all it took, I'd qualify too. I must not be very clear; that thin-line crack was a high compliment.

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Poor grades help Barack Obama learn about campaigning
Poor grades help Barack Obama learn about campaigning
By Steven Thomma
McClatchy Newspapers
5/15/07

WASHINGTON - Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois is going to school on the presidential campaign trail, and he just got a lesson from what's arguably the most important union in Democratic Party politics.

Obama got poor marks from the International Association of Firefighters for a speech he gave in March courting union support. Even worse, the union gave several rivals, including Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York, much better grades.

The problem, union President Harold Schaitberger said in an interview, is that Obama all but ignored the union issues that firefighters care about. His lofty speech seemed aimed more at the C-SPAN audience outside the Capitol Hill ballroom.

"There was a view that Senator Obama seemed to be a little somber, a little sobering," Schaitberger said, referring to a survey he took of the roughly 1,000 union leaders who heard Obama and 10 other candidates that day. "The issues he shared weren't necessarily on point.

"Senator Obama was probably not overly pleased with my opinion," Schaitberger added. "But I was being honest."

By comparison, Clinton punctuated her speech with repeated references not only to her personal connection to firefighters in New York but also to her support for issues they care deeply about, such as health care for those hurt or made ill by work at the World Trade Center site or better radio and search gear to help guide them through another disaster.

Firefighters also thought highly of Sens. Joseph Biden of Delaware and Christopher Dodd of Connecticut, former Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina and Gov. Bill Richardson of New Mexico. "All five of them did a terrific job," Schaitberger said.

Among the Republicans, they were unimpressed by Sen. John McCain of Arizona. "They view him as a real American hero," Schaitberger said. "But he didn't seem to have the passion or energy to deliver the message, on that day at least."

On Friday, Obama got a chance for a makeover. The firefighters invited him and the five Democrats who did well to meet for follow-up interviews with about 80 union leaders gathered in Portsmouth, N.H.

Obama literally phoned it in, from a campaign stop in Iowa, but he acknowledged the faux pas and blamed his staff for not scheduling him to be there in person. Then he got more specific about firefighter issues and ended up with a much better grade.

"Obama did a much better job," Schaitberger said. "He was more on point. He acknowledged this. He made it clear that he really wanted to pursue our support. Today was a very different presentation."

Democratic candidates are courting lots of unions, including such big ones as the 1.4-million-member American Federation of State County and Municipal Employees and the 1.8-million-member Service Employees International Union.

But the much smaller, 280,000-member firefighters union might be even more powerful in Democratic caucuses and primaries. One major reason: They're everywhere there's a firehouse. Another: They're popular, especially since Sept. 11.

In 2004, the two big unions supported Howard Dean for the Democratic nomination - but couldn't carry him over the finish line in Iowa. The firefighters backed John Kerry.

Even though the union was unimpressed by McCain and loathes former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani for ordering firefighters to stop searching for the remains of fallen colleagues in the World Trade Center rubble, Schaitberger said the firefighters' union remains open to backing a Republican.

The next step is conducting research on the candidates, first with focus groups and then with a summertime poll of its members. The goal is to endorse one of them by Labor Day.
--------------------------------------

Steven Thomma is chief political correspondent for the McClatchy Washington bureau. Write to him at: McClatchy Newspapers, 700 12th St. N.W., Suite 1000, Washington, DC 20005-3994, or e-mail [email protected].

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I never came back to this, sorry.

I THINK what I was getting at is just that the Thompson poll could indicate part of a general downswing for Obama -- which is confirmed by the other poll you mention later -- and doesn't necessarily have any special significance other than that. As in, if it differs from previous polls, maybe it's one of the first that happened to map the fact that Obama is losing some ground, rather than the fact that the "generic Republican" idea yields new info.

I do think that the polls which have established candidates running against established candidates are more meaningful because of the sort of triangulation that inevitably happens among moderates/ swing voters. (I don't think you disagree.) There are people who would love some paragon of Republican-ness who nonetheless are put off by McCain, Giuliani, or Romney, and who would seriously consider voting for Obama. As in, Obama is not their ideal, but given the real-world options, he might be the best of a bad lot.

OK, that was kind of quick and "eek I never got back to this," I might need to change things and/or elaborate further later, but that's the best I can reconstruct from what I was trying to say earlier.

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The republican candidates are staying away from their core conservative convictions, and campaigning on "current events" that has little to do with what the American Public is interested in for the long-term health of our country. If they stick with abortion and immigration, they'll certainly further lose their conservative base in 2008. They already look bad on Iraq - IMHO.

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Re: Poor grades help Barack Obama learn about campaigning

BumbleBeeBoogie wrote:

Poor grades help Barack Obama learn about campaigning
By Steven Thomma
McClatchy Newspapers
5/15/07

WASHINGTON - Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois is going to school on the presidential campaign trail, and he just got a lesson from what's arguably the most important union in Democratic Party politics.

The firefighters union is "arguably the most important union in Democratic Party politics?" What an arguably dumb thing to say. The NEA and AFSCME are far more important in the Democratic universe, not to mention traditional labor unions like the UAW. Compared to them, the firefighters are small potatoes.

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sozobe wrote:

I THINK what I was getting at is just that the Thompson poll could indicate part of a general downswing for Obama -- which is confirmed by the other poll you mention later -- and doesn't necessarily have any special significance other than that.

I dont disagree that the overall relative weakness in the poll of Obama vs the other two could be part of a temporary downswing - hell, far as I'm concerned his relatively low totals in this poll is just as likely to have been a statistical fluke.

But then I find the relatively low overall totals for Obama vs the other two in any case the least interesting aspect in the entire poll. Thats why I spent about 90% of my analysis of the poll on other things that it tell us, or suggests at least.

The geographical distribution of each Democratic candidate's strength and weaknesses, and how their geographical reach then compares with each other, is far more interesting to me about that poll. As in: you could just, in your mind, increase Obama's score in each state by 10 points if you suspect his low overall numbers are something a fluke, like I do - and then look at what the state-by-state distribution tells us about each of the three candidates. Thats what I tried to focus on, anyhow.

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OK, yeah, I see that and agree with that element.

Part of what I'm getting at with triangulation is that Giuliani and McCain and Romney might put off a big chunk of the people in the states where Obama does particularly badly, and Obama tends to appeal to the moderates/ swing voters. As in, if these people have to choose between Rudy McRomney and a Democrat, they might choose Obama -- but not Edwards or Hillary.

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