Cycloptichorn
 
  2  
Sun 27 Jun, 2010 06:30 pm
@ican711nm,
You have to take the period off the end -

http://www.bls.gov/cps/eetech_methods.pdf

Cycloptichorn
ican711nm
 
  -1  
Sun 27 Jun, 2010 06:52 pm
@Cycloptichorn,
Cycloptichorn wrote:
You have to take the period off the end -

http://www.bls.gov/cps/eetech_methods.pdf

OK! I read the note at that link.

I was unable to find anything "not comparable" within the Total Civilian Employment numbers for the years 2003 through 2009 for which Note 1 applies. While the non-comparability among 2001 with 2003 through 2009 may be significant, it is not relevant to my argument about the changes in Total Civilian Employment 2003 through 2009.

0 Replies
 
realjohnboy
 
  2  
Mon 28 Jun, 2010 03:39 pm
Go Figure:
Rasmussen's poll of President Obama's approval drops to -9. That is the best it has been since the first of May. 28% Strongly Approve while 37% Strongly Disapprove. It had been as high as -20 or so.
The 37% Strongly Disapprove is the lowest in 8 months.
Overall, 49% at least Somewhat Approve vs 50% who at least Somewhat Disapprove.
I believe that this is the first poll taken entirely after the McChrystal firing/resignation. Rasmussen uses a 3 day polling cycle.
okie
 
  -1  
Mon 28 Jun, 2010 09:44 pm
@realjohnboy,
realjohnboy wrote:
It had been as high as -20 or so.

Correct, I think it was a Minus 23 at one point, rjb. However, the numbers don't mean anything anyway, because cyclops says Rasmussen is too biased!
Cycloptichorn
 
  4  
Tue 29 Jun, 2010 10:07 am
@okie,
okie wrote:

realjohnboy wrote:
It had been as high as -20 or so.

Correct, I think it was a Minus 23 at one point, rjb. However, the numbers don't mean anything anyway, because cyclops says Rasmussen is too biased!


I never said that they 'don't mean anything,' but yes - Ras is consistently biased towards Republicans, and I doubt you could find anyone who disagrees with that.

Cycloptichorn
okie
 
  -1  
Tue 29 Jun, 2010 10:37 am
@Cycloptichorn,
Cycloptichorn wrote:

I never said that they 'don't mean anything,' but yes - Ras is consistently biased towards Republicans, and I doubt you could find anyone who disagrees with that.

Cycloptichorn

Cyclops, seriously, that is a dumb statement. You are implying virtually everyone agrees with you and that Rasmussen is not considered credible by hardly anyone, which is silly on its face. If Rasmussen was not any more credible than that, he would not be in business. In fact, cyclops, whether you admit it or not, Rasmussen is one of the top and most well respected pollsters among all of them.
Cycloptichorn
 
  3  
Tue 29 Jun, 2010 10:51 am
@okie,
okie wrote:

Cycloptichorn wrote:

I never said that they 'don't mean anything,' but yes - Ras is consistently biased towards Republicans, and I doubt you could find anyone who disagrees with that.

Cycloptichorn

Cyclops, seriously, that is a dumb statement. You are implying virtually everyone agrees with you and that Rasmussen is not considered credible by hardly anyone, which is silly on its face. If Rasmussen was not any more credible than that, he would not be in business. In fact, cyclops, whether you admit it or not, Rasmussen is one of the top and most well respected pollsters among all of them.


Do you understand that 'biased in favor of Republicans' and 'not considered credible' aren't the same thing? If Ras is usually +3-5% in favor of Republicans over ALL other pollsters - which they are - that doesn't mean you can't still identify trends across multiple polling dates.

I'm sure Ras is the most respected pollster on the right-wing, without a doubt; he constantly tells you exactly what you want to hear.

Cycloptichorn
hawkeye10
 
  1  
Tue 29 Jun, 2010 11:05 am
Quote:
We are in deep, deep gumbo.

The Obama administration feels it should get a great deal of credit for its economic stimulus efforts, its health care initiative, its financial reform legislation, its vastly increased aid to education and so forth. And maybe if we were grading papers, there would be a fair number of decent marks to be handed out.

But Americans struggling in a down economy are worried about the survival of their families. Destitution is beckoning for those whose unemployment benefits are running out, and that crowd of long-term jobless men and women is expanding rapidly.

There is a widespread feeling that only the rich and well-placed can count on Washington’s help, and that toxic sentiment is spreading like the oil stain in the gulf, with ominous implications for President Obama and his party. It’s in this atmosphere that support for the president and his agenda is sinking like a stone.
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/29/opinion/29herbert.html?hp

Herbert nailed it.
hawkeye10
 
  0  
Tue 29 Jun, 2010 11:07 am
@Cycloptichorn,
Quote:
If Ras is usually +3-5% in favor of Republicans over ALL other pollsters - which they are
What is the source? The knock on him has been that he tends to ask the questions that makes the right look good, not that his numbers are wrong.
Cycloptichorn
 
  2  
Tue 29 Jun, 2010 11:11 am
@hawkeye10,
hawkeye10 wrote:

Quote:
If Ras is usually +3-5% in favor of Republicans over ALL other pollsters - which they are
What is the source? The knock on him has been that he tends to ask the questions that makes the right look good, not that his numbers are wrong.


What is the source of what? If you don't believe that they consistently favor the Republican position - both in terms of questions asked and in terms of internal bias in their likely voter model - just go to Pollster.com and look at their record as compared to other pollsters. They consistently favor the Republican position in both terms of opinion polling AND upcoming races.

Cycloptichorn
Irishk
 
  1  
Tue 29 Jun, 2010 11:19 am
@hawkeye10,
[quote="hawkeye10"[/quote]
Quote:
We are in deep, deep gumbo.


LOL I had to go to the link to make sure he really said that. He did Smile
0 Replies
 
hawkeye10
 
  0  
Tue 29 Jun, 2010 11:19 am
@Cycloptichorn,
Quote:
Democratic pollster Mark Mellman told Politico, "I think they write their questions in a way that supports a conservative interpretation of the world. In general, they tend to be among the worst polls for Democrats, and they phrase questions in ways that elicit less support for the Democratic point of view."
http://www.politicsdaily.com/2010/01/04/rasmussens-polling-stirs-bias-debate/

You see this kind of thing over and over on the net, what you don't see is serious people claiming that the Rasmussen polling numbers are wrong. The results are the correct results for the questions asked, but it is claimed that the questions are framed in such a way to make the right look good. I dont have a big problem with that, though I would prefer most polling to be non-biased.
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  0  
Tue 29 Jun, 2010 11:55 am
ARE THESE BIASED? IF YOU THINK SO, WHAT IS THEIR BIAS?

http://www.pollster.com/
http://www.pollster.com/polls/us/jobapproval-obama.php
http://www.pollster.com/polls/us/10-us-house-genballot.php
http://www.pollster.com/polls/us/issue-rdwt.php

Cycloptichorn
 
  4  
Tue 29 Jun, 2010 12:19 pm
@ican711nm,
Pollster.com is a poll aggregator site. They don't do independent polling of their own.

How can you not understand that just by looking at it?

Cycloptichorn
okie
 
  -4  
Tue 29 Jun, 2010 01:21 pm
@Cycloptichorn,
Cycloptichorn wrote:

Do you understand that 'biased in favor of Republicans' and 'not considered credible' aren't the same thing? If Ras is usually +3-5% in favor of Republicans over ALL other pollsters - which they are - that doesn't mean you can't still identify trends across multiple polling dates.

Has it ever ocurred to you that there is a pretty good possibility that all other pollsters may be the ones that are more biased and wrong. After all, we do know that they are more often than not biased toward the Democrats. And if Rasmussen is proven to be pretty close in regard to elections, while his competition is mostly more inaccurate in regard to actual election results, then it is Rasmussen that shines forth as being uniquely accurate, not biased.

Quote:
I'm sure Ras is the most respected pollster on the right-wing, without a doubt; he constantly tells you exactly what you want to hear.

Cycloptichorn

It is not so much that I want to hear what I want to hear, its a matter of wanting to hear what is accurate. I follow Rasmussen because I think he may be more accurate than his competition. For example, I don't pay much attention to any poll taken by Newsweek, because I consider Newsweek to be a highly biased, slanted, and inaccurate organization, and I think their polling results compared to election results have shown them to be inaccurate as well.

So has it ocurred to you, cyclops, that maybe you don't like Rasmussen not because of his supposed bias in your view, but because he is actually producing more accurate results, and that perhaps more accurate results reflect that not everyone in this country is liberal as you are, just perhaps not everyone buys into your radical views as you think they do or that they should? Just maybe there is still a silent majority that is much more conservative than you would prefer? After all, there are still many people that value human life over the life of a rat or a worm.
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  -1  
Tue 29 Jun, 2010 03:07 pm
@Cycloptichorn,
Cyclo, this post of yours does not answer my question!
Cycloptichorn wrote:
Pollster.com is a poll aggregator site. They don't do independent polling of their own.
How can you not understand that just by looking at it?

I asked:
ARE THESE BIASED? IF YOU THINK SO, WHAT IS THEIR BIAS?
realjohnboy
 
  2  
Tue 29 Jun, 2010 03:23 pm
Huh? Who is "their?"
Did you read, Cyclo, about Daily Kos and the polling firm Research 2000? The Daily Kos hired Research 200o to conduct polls and is now claiming that results were completely fabricated.
Research 2000 has not responded to the allegations and has thus far declined to turn over raw polling data.
Cycloptichorn
 
  3  
Tue 29 Jun, 2010 03:24 pm
@ican711nm,
Unbelievable! You have no clue what you are even looking at, Icann.

Poll averages, like the one you linked to, are not biased in any way.

Cycloptichorn
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Tue 29 Jun, 2010 03:26 pm
@realjohnboy,
realjohnboy wrote:

Huh? Who is "their?"
Did you read, Cyclo, about Daily Kos and the polling firm Research 2000? The Daily Kos hired Research 200o to conduct polls and is now claiming that results were completely fabricated.
Research 2000 has not responded to the allegations.


Yeah, I read that. Good for DKos for dumping them after they found out. To be specific, the DKos researches found inaccuracies which couldn't be explained by any normal means - they didn't accuse them of making up results from whole cloth.

Either way, I'm glad to see the site admit that the pollster they were using is bad - and retract posts based on that polling.

Cycloptichorn
Irishk
 
  1  
Tue 29 Jun, 2010 03:34 pm
@Cycloptichorn,
Didn't Markos use them for around 18 months, though? I wonder why he didn't question the results sooner, or why he kept them around so long.
 

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