Obama '08?

But then, why Guiliani over McCain or Romney?

The growing level of support in the evangelical/RR community for Guiliani is really interesting. I've been reading a few catholic blogs and animosity towards him even there is pretty acute for a lot of contributors (likely not all contributors are catholic, of course).

Previously, the consensus opinion of anyone I read was that he would have no chance of winning the primary because of his pro-choice position, his stance on gays, and his multiple marriages/infidelity. These had been considered by everyone (does anyone know of even a single pundit/analyst exception even a year ago?) as make or break issues for this constituency.

One factor must be dwindling options...heading for the "lesser evil". But still, that demonstrates a bite-the-bullet resiliency on key issues that folks didn't really imagine would appear. Establishing a third party seemed perhaps as likely and it has been threatened by folks like Viguerie and Dobson. No ideal candidate (or even close, really) is available. Perhaps these folks are getting a bit brighter on why that is the case - any candidate openly professing a Dobsonian agenda has no chance electorally.

But then, why Guiliani over McCain or Romney?

My supposition is that he represents authoritarian leadership far moreso than the other two or three options. And this is a community that really likes authoritarians.

blatham wrote:

But then, why Guiliani over McCain or Romney?

Because he looks like he could win. Better a compromised winner than a more principled loser.

OCCOM BILL wrote:

blatham wrote:

But then, why Guiliani over McCain or Romney?

Because he looks like he could win. Better a compromised winner than a more principled loser.

For someone like you, I'd accept that thesis of pragmatism. But I don't perceive or consider the religious right portion of the party to be motivated similarly. Certainly not this early on. I think they seem to kind of love the guy. And that response, if I have it right, points elsewhere.

blatham wrote:

OCCOM BILL wrote:

blatham wrote:

But then, why Guiliani over McCain or Romney?

Because he looks like he could win. Better a compromised winner than a more principled loser.

For someone like you, I'd accept that thesis of pragmatism. But I don't perceive or consider the religious right portion of the party to be motivated similarly. Certainly not this early on. I think they seem to kind of love the guy. And that response, if I have it right, points elsewhere.

Put yourself in the mind of the RR (or any Republican/Conservative) Hillary Vs. Rudy... is there any contest at all? Further, I don't believe even the RR is single-minded… there are degrees to all beliefs.

Are you just unwilling to accept my thesis that some people are happier or more comfortable within a highly authoritarian framework or that even if that is so, it doesn't apply to that 'group'?

bla--

I meant to do that.


I differ from Bill's assessment of the RR. I think they have a template....which they divined one evening as they threw herbs into a cauldron and walked in a slow circle wearing hooded robes...

But, that's just me...

blatham wrote:

Are you just unwilling to accept my thesis that some people are happier or more comfortable within a highly authoritarian framework or that even if that is so, it doesn't apply to that 'group'?

No, I accept your thesis loosely as well... but don't share yours and Lash's opinion that the RR are blind-stupid-sheep that will act in unison on command. That their collective opinions tend to coincide (VERY predictably) is not evidence of a lack of consideration on an individual basis. Empirically; I've heard Church-goers grinding about their Pastor's erroneous politics more than once. No matter how much they may behave like it; people are not sheep.

Giuliani has administrated with very tangible success in at least two dramatic situations.

Do you really give a **** how many times he's been married, Miller?

Is Obama black enough?

The Democratic hopeful Barack Obama could become the US's first black president. Yet, with his mixed-race background, Ivy League education and midwestern accent, one of his greatest challenges has been convincing African-Americans that he is 'one of us'.

"When black Americans refer to Obama as 'one of us', I do not know what they are talking about," wrote the African-American columnist Stanley Crouch in November. "He has not lived the life of a black American ... If we end up with him as our first black president, he will have come into the White House through a side door - which might at this point be the only one open."

This kind of talk made the journalist Marjorie Valbrun, who is Haitian-American, mad: "It makes me angry," she wrote in the Washington Post recently. "I'm angry for Obama, too. People are asking whether he's black enough to represent them. I ask, black enough by whose standards? Why must Obama's life follow the same track of 'authentic' black folk to pass this litmus test?"

It's not just a talking point among African-Americans. During an interview with CBS's Steve Kroft, who is white, just two weeks ago, the line of questioning went as follows:

Kroft: Your mother was white. Your father was African?

Obama: Right.

Kroft: You spent most of your life in a white household?

Obama: Yeah.

Kroft: I mean, you grew up white.

Obama: I'm not sure that would be true. I think what would be true is that I don't have the typical background of African-Americans . . .

Kroft: You were raised in a white household?

Obama: Right.

Kroft: Yet at some point, you decided that you were black?

It is a debate which tells us at least as much, if not more, about America's racial, ethnic and political obsessions than it does about Obama. So do these perceptions matter? Why do they matter? And how?

Blacks Shift To Obama, Poll Finds

By Dan Balz and Jon Cohen
Washington Post Staff Writers
Wednesday, February 28, 2007; Page A01

The opening stages of the campaign for the 2008 Democratic presidential nomination have produced a noticeable shift in sentiment among African American voters, who little more than a month ago heavily supported Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton but now favor the candidacy of Sen. Barack Obama.

Clinton, of New York, continues to lead Obama and other rivals in the Democratic contest, according to the latest Washington Post-ABC News poll. But her once-sizable margin over the freshman senator from Illinois was sliced in half during the past month largely because of Obama's growing support among black voters...


...On the January weekend when she announced her candidacy, Clinton led the Democratic field with 41 percent. Obama was second at 17 percent, Edwards was third at 11 percent and former vice president Al Gore, who has said he has no plans to run, was fourth at 10 percent.
The latest poll put Clinton at 36 percent, Obama at 24 percent, Gore at 14 percent and Edwards at 12 percent. None of the other Democrats running received more than 3 percent. With Gore removed from the field, Clinton would gain ground on Obama, leading the Illinois senator 43 percent to 27 percent. Edwards ran third at 14 percent. The poll was completed the night Gore's documentary film "An Inconvenient Truth" won an Academy Award.
Clinton's and Obama's support among white voters changed little since December, but the shifts among black Democrats were dramatic. In December and January Post-ABC News polls, Clinton led Obama among African Americans by 60 percent to 20 percent. In the new poll, Obama held a narrow advantage among blacks, 44 percent to 33 percent. The shift came despite four in five blacks having a favorable impression of the New York senator.
African Americans view Clinton even more positively than they see Obama, but in the time since he began his campaign, his favorability rating rose significantly among blacks. In the latest poll, 70 percent of African Americans said they had a favorable impression of Obama, compared with 54 percent in December and January.
Overall, Clinton's favorability ratings dipped slightly from January, with 49 percent of Americans having a favorable impression and 48 percent an unfavorable impression. Obama's ratings among all Americans improved over the past month, with 53 percent saying they have a favorable impression and 30 percent saying they have an unfavorable impression.
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