Obama '08?

FOX and daffy duck doesn't have much credibility in my world.

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JPB wrote:

<note to self: don't pack the "Bill's a scumbag t-shirt">

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cicerone imposter wrote:

FOX and daffy duck doesn't have much credibility in my world.

Is Susan Estrich Daffy Duck, or are you being funny, CI?

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Lash wrote:

snood wrote:
For me, the bottom line on Obama is this:
From all indications, this country isn't ready for a black person or a woman in the oval office, and won't be anytime soon. So while its entertaining musing about Condie, Hillary, Barack and Colin, the person occupying that white house on November 8th will be a white man.

Could you explain what you meant by that? I've heard it, but don't quite understand it.

I don't understand what you don't understand. At the time I wrote that, I was expressing my deep skepticism that this country was ready to put a black man in the oval office.

Does it just mean enough people won't vote for a black or female candidate?..or is there something else?

No, that's about it - I meant enough people wouldn't vote for a black or a woman to make them president.

Has your opinion changed? If so, what changed it?

My attitude has changed some over the last year, and I attribute it wholly to Obama (and maybe some to the optimism and vigor of supporters like Sozobe). I didn't even think he'd run at first; when he did, I adjusted from "If he did, he wouldn't have a real chance", to "Holy Shyt! He's actually gonna try it, so I'm gonna get behind him." His audacity and boldness made me rethink. The reaction he's gotten from certain conservatives I know has made me rethink. Reading his second book and getting a grasp on just how nuanced and studied he is made me rethink.

Condi on Barack

Please Lash, if you get the chance, if you read nothing else from Obama's book read the chapter called simply 'Race'. Here's an excerpt (one excerpt doesn't do the chapter justice, but it's a taste):

"...I maintain, however, that in today's America such prejudices are far more loosely held than they once were-and hence are subject to refutation. A black teenage boy walking down the street may elicit fear in a white couple, but if he turn's out to be their son's friend from school he may be invited over for dinner. A black man may have trouble catching a cab late at night, but if he is a capable software engineer Microsoft will have no qualms about hiring him."

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snood wrote:

Lash wrote:
snood wrote:
For me, the bottom line on Obama is this:
From all indications, this country isn't ready for a black person or a woman in the oval office, and won't be anytime soon. So while its entertaining musing about Condie, Hillary, Barack and Colin, the person occupying that white house on November 8th will be a white man.

Could you explain what you meant by that? I've heard it, but don't quite understand it.

I don't understand what you don't understand. At the time I wrote that, I was expressing my deep skepticism that this country was ready to put a black man in the oval office.

Does it just mean enough people won't vote for a black or female candidate?..or is there something else?

No, that's about it - I meant enough people wouldn't vote for a black or a woman to make them president.

Has your opinion changed? If so, what changed it?

My attitude has changed some over the last year, and I attribute it wholly to Obama (and maybe some to the optimism and vigor of supporters like Sozobe). I didn't even think he'd run at first; when he did, I adjusted from "If he did, he wouldn't have a real chance", to "Holy Shyt! He's actually gonna try it, so I'm gonna get behind him." His audacity and boldness made me rethink. The reaction he's gotten from certain conservatives I know has made me rethink. Reading his second book and getting a grasp on just how nuanced and studied he is made me rethink.

Condi on Barack

Please Lash, if you get the chance, if you read nothing else from Obama's book read the chapter called simply 'Race'. Here's an excerpt (one excerpt doesn't do the chapter justice, but it's a taste):

"...I maintain, however, that in today's America such prejudices are far more loosely held than they once were-and hence are subject to refutation. A black teenage boy walking down the street may elicit fear in a white couple, but if he turn's out to be their son's friend from school he may be invited over for dinner. A black man may have trouble catching a cab late at night, but if he is a capable software engineer Microsoft will have no qualms about hiring him."

Why should I read it? What you quoted sounds like basic common knowledge.

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OK, I'm going to take a stab at this.

Disclaimer -- Edwards has been on the campaign trail a lot longer than Obama. I thinks it's Edwards' only full-time job right now, not sure about that. (He doesn't currently hold elective office anyway.) Obama officially threw his hat in the ring only this month. So I think it makes sense that Edwards would be MORE specific than Obama, and I won't make any claims there. I do fully expect that as the campaign matures there will be more and more specifics.

Nonetheless, I'll see what I can find in the book.

Krugman wrote:

With Americans changing jobs more frequently, more likely to go through spells of unemployment, and more likely to work part-time or be self-employed, health insurance can't just run through employers anymore. It needs to be portable. The market alone can't solve our health-care woes -- in part because the market has proven incapable of creating large enough insurance pools to keep costs to individuals affordable, in part because health care is not like other products or services (when your child gets sick, you don't go shopping for the best bargain). And finally, whatever reforms we implement should provide strong incentives for improved quality, prevention, and more efficient delivery of care. With these principles in mind, let me offer just one example of what a serious health-care reform plan might look like. We could start by having a nonpartisan group like the National Academy of Science's Institute of Medicine (IOM) determine what a basic, high-quality health care plan should look like and what it should cost. In designing this model plan, the IOM would examine what which existing health-care programs deliver the best care in the most cost-effective manner. In particular, the model plan would emphasize coverage of primary care, prevention, catastrophic care, and management of chronic conditions like asthma and diabetes. Overall, 20 percent of patients account for 80 percent of the care, and if we can prevent diseases from occurring or manage their effects through simple interventions like making sure patients control their diets or take their medicines regularly, we can dramatically improve patient outcomes and save the system a great deal of money. Next, we would allow...

Got tired of typing!! Will either come back to this or see if I can copy and paste from his website.

All typos mine.

pp 184-185. Goes until p.187.

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Lash wrote:

snood wrote:
Lash wrote:
snood wrote:
For me, the bottom line on Obama is this:
From all indications, this country isn't ready for a black person or a woman in the oval office, and won't be anytime soon. So while its entertaining musing about Condie, Hillary, Barack and Colin, the person occupying that white house on November 8th will be a white man.

Could you explain what you meant by that? I've heard it, but don't quite understand it.

I don't understand what you don't understand. At the time I wrote that, I was expressing my deep skepticism that this country was ready to put a black man in the oval office.

Does it just mean enough people won't vote for a black or female candidate?..or is there something else?

No, that's about it - I meant enough people wouldn't vote for a black or a woman to make them president.

Has your opinion changed? If so, what changed it?

My attitude has changed some over the last year, and I attribute it wholly to Obama (and maybe some to the optimism and vigor of supporters like Sozobe). I didn't even think he'd run at first; when he did, I adjusted from "If he did, he wouldn't have a real chance", to "Holy Shyt! He's actually gonna try it, so I'm gonna get behind him." His audacity and boldness made me rethink. The reaction he's gotten from certain conservatives I know has made me rethink. Reading his second book and getting a grasp on just how nuanced and studied he is made me rethink.

Condi on Barack

Please Lash, if you get the chance, if you read nothing else from Obama's book read the chapter called simply 'Race'. Here's an excerpt (one excerpt doesn't do the chapter justice, but it's a taste):

"...I maintain, however, that in today's America such prejudices are far more loosely held than they once were-and hence are subject to refutation. A black teenage boy walking down the street may elicit fear in a white couple, but if he turn's out to be their son's friend from school he may be invited over for dinner. A black man may have trouble catching a cab late at night, but if he is a capable software engineer Microsoft will have no qualms about hiring him."

Why should I read it? What you quoted sounds like basic common knowledge.

Hmmm... maybe you shouldn't.

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I watched Edwards on Bill Maher last night. He way overplayed the "I'm honest" card for admitting his error about Iraq and that his healthcare plan would require raising taxes. When asked about both, his answers were all about being honest, instead of the subject. It didn't seem to sell well even to the choir... though did get the requisite applause. By election time; everyone will have been reminded that he's a world class liar... so he'd better polish up his act a little if he wants to sell it. I don't think he can.

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Obama wrote:

Overall, 20 percent of patients account for 80 percent of the care, and if we can prevent diseases from occurring or manage their effects through simple interventions like making sure patients control their diets or take their medicines regularly, we can dramatically improve patient outcomes and save the system a great deal of money.

I'm all for prevention of disease... of course that would take a major shift in the way the medical industry practices medicine (right now it is more worried with treating illness than preventing it) not just a plan some politician puts together... but that is another discussion.

What caught my eye was the part about simple interventions... exactly why does he think we have the ability to make patients control their diets and take their medicine? Many health problems are caused by a lifetime of unhealthy diets/choices (heart disease, diabetes, some cancers) and not taking medicines is one of the largest problems facing the mentally ill. It may sound nice to say a "simple intervention" would force people to change their lifestyles and start taking medicine as they should, but I think that the audacity of hope in that statement is bordering on wishful thinking.

+++++++++++++++++++++

As a side note... I've been following this thread for awhile and haven't gotten involved until now. I haven't made up my mind on Obama yet, but I certainly would rather see him than any of the other democratic candidates at this point. My thinking is, Hillary is his biggest hurdle/enemy right now. If he makes it past her, I think he has a real shot at this. An Obama/Giuliani race could be very very interesting.

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Actually it's something my mom has talked about a lot (she's a lifelong nurse, many different jobs in that field). There is often a disconnect between what the doctor knows needs to happen and real life. The patient may be hustled out without gaining a full understanding, or may not have resources, or whatever. My mom's done a lot of that kind of intervention with very good results.

I don't think anyone thinks it'd be 100%. And there is only so much we can do -- if someone truly understands all of the variables and just refuses, that's their perogative. But this type of intervention (which can be home visits, community programs, etc.*) are often effective.

*Even just changing the packaging on medication -- Target is using that new system that was developed by some... graphic designer? -- after finding that people routinely mis-read their medications and end up taking the wrong ones. That's been a real problem.

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sozobe wrote:

Got tired of typing!! Will either come back to this or see if I can copy and paste from his website.

Thanks -- I keep forgetting that my correspondents can't cut and paste from a paper book to a computer. I'll wait with my comments until you get around to his answers to the other questions. (Summary plus page number will work for me. No need to type pages of original text verbatim.) Otherwise I'll probably start a mud fight with someone about the first item on the list, and we'll never find time to discuss the others. Smile

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sozobe wrote:

*Even just changing the packaging on medication -- Target is using that new system that was developed by some... graphic designer? -- after finding that people routinely mis-read their medications and end up taking the wrong ones. That's been a real problem.

Love those Target medicine bottles!

My wife brought one along with her to a Dr visit so she had her correct doasage and everything, and when the Dr saw it, he became physically excited about it. He loved the color coding, ease of reading and info available on the bottle. He started recommending his patients go to Target for their drugs. Score another one for the free market!

As far as the whole getting people to take their medicine/control their diet thing... perhaps the word intervention is what scares me. When you talk about making sure patients understand and doctors and patients having all the information and home visits... that is an idea I can get behind. In my mind, an "intervention" has a very different meaning. Does he expand on the idea of these interventions at all?

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I don't think so. When I see "intervention" in that context, that's the kind of thing I think of though. "Early intervention" for deaf kids = deaf mentors, socializing opportunities with other deaf kids, rich language environment, storytelling, etc. I think some of what my mom has done was called intervention (home visits mostly). Pretty standard terminology for that kind of thing.

Score another one for graphic designers, too! She did a great job.

Gotta go, I'll come back to the Obama stuff. Will try summarizing, hoping that the website will have stuff ready to copy and paste (haven't checked yet).

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heh...

Quote:

Techpresident.com has been charting the number of friends on 2008 presidential candidates' MySpace pages (not all pages are official), and so far, Barack Obama has been crushing his Democratic competitors. Obama has over 50,000 friends while second-place Dem Hillary Clinton has about 25,000. Republican candidates, meanwhile, are proving less popular: Texas congressman Ron Paul tops that list with just under 3,000 friends.

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In today's Washington Post:

Blacks Shift To Obama, Poll Finds

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Walter Hinteler wrote:

In today's Washington Post:

Blacks Shift To Obama, Poll Finds

I find this surprising.

Quote:

In the Republican race, former New York mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani, who recently made clear his intentions to seek the presidency, has expanded his lead over Sen. John McCain of Arizona. Giuliani holds a 2 to 1 advantage over McCain among Republicans, according to the poll, more than tripling his margin of a month ago.

The principal reason was a shift among white evangelical Protestants, who now clearly favor Giuliani over McCain. Giuliani is doing well among this group of Americans despite his support of abortion rights and gay rights, two issues of great importance to religious conservatives. McCain opposes abortion rights.

I find this evangelical support even more surprising when you consider Giuliani, like McCain, was cheating on his wife.

Quote:

THERE is one woman who could cause Rudy Giuliani, the former New York mayor, more problems than Hillary Clinton in the race for the White House: she is Donna Hanover, his second wife, writes Sarah Baxter.

Hanover, an actress and broadcaster, was enraged by Giuliani's flagrant infidelity towards the end of their 18-year marriage and the divorce case was vicious. Giuliani's advisers fear that she could be a loose cannon in the 2008 campaign.

Giuliani was acclaimed as the "mayor of America" for his heroic role during the attacks on September 11, 2001 and is revered for his leadership. At the time he was living in the spare room of an apartment belonging to gay friends after Hanover forced him out of Gracie Mansion, the official residence.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/article1290219.ece

It seems conservative Republicans will vote for ex-alcoholics, drug users and wife cheaters but, lo, let a Democrat do this and he's the most venal vermin known to mankind.

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One small correction; ex-drug users.

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The growing level of support in the evangelical/RR community for Guiliani is really interesting. I've been reading a few catholic blogs and animosity towards him even there is pretty acute for a lot of contributors (likely not all contributors are catholic, of course).

Previously, the consensus opinion of anyone I read was that he would have no chance of winning the primary because of his pro-choice position, his stance on gays, and his multiple marriages/infidelity. These had been considered by everyone (does anyone know of even a single pundit/analyst exception even a year ago?) as make or break issues for this constituency.

One factor must be dwindling options...heading for the "lesser evil". But still, that demonstrates a bite-the-bullet resiliency on key issues that folks didn't really imagine would appear. Establishing a third party seemed perhaps as likely and it has been threatened by folks like Viguerie and Dobson. No ideal candidate (or even close, really) is available. Perhaps these folks are getting a bit brighter on why that is the case - any candidate openly professing a Dobsonian agenda has no chance electorally.

But then, why Guiliani over McCain or Romney?

My supposition is that he represents authoritarian leadership far moreso than the other two or three options. And this is a community that really likes authoritarians.

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That is weird. I get that they don't trust McCain, and Giuliani is the other guy who seems to have the best chance. But still weird.

Thanks for posting the poll/ article, Walter. I expect Obama to steadily gain ground. Just not sure how far it'll go...

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