Obama '08?

@Foxfyre,

Foxfyre wrote:

Rasmussen has been accused of having a conservative bias, but he has ranked #1 in accuracy in the last two elections. How biased could he be?

I don't think that's actually true; once the final vote totals were out, Ras was off by considerably more than the next-day totals.

Cycloptichorn

1 Reply

@Cycloptichorn,

I find that we talked about this at some length back on about page 1242-1243 of this thread. Unless there is some new data, aren't we just rehashing an old conversation?

1 Reply

@realjohnboy,

LOL...you remember the page number? Smile

Here's one link I used for that information in case anybody cares:
http://www.fordham.edu/images/academics/graduate_schools/gsas/elections_and_campaign_/poll%20accuracy%20in%20the%202008%20presidential%20election.pdf

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@Foxfyre,

You will note that the date on that is 11/5; the final results weren't in for another week or so.

See -

http://able2know.org/topic/71145-1243#post-3641608

Ras was not the most accurate this cycle. But they were damn close.

Cycloptichorn

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Aw, page 1243. I remember it well.
Rasmussen intends to ask 1,000 people this question:
"To protest bailouts, should Americans boycott GM and refuse to buy GM cars?"
What % of respondents do you think will say "Yes"?
As a hint, useful or otherwise, 73% of respondents to an earlier Ras poll opposed a GM bailout.

2 Replies

@realjohnboy,

Will the poll specify GM cars that are made here and those made in China?

1 Reply

@H2O MAN,

No. I quoted it from Rasmussen.

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@Foxfyre,

Foxfyre wrote:

LOL...you remember the page number?

Here's one link I used for that information in case anybody cares:
http://www.fordham.edu/images/academics/graduate_schools/gsas/elections_and_campaign_/poll%20accuracy%20in%20the%202008%20presidential%20election.pdf

Note the ones bringing up the rear, Foxfyre. Newsweek dead last, well deserved I am sure.

"13. NBC/WSJ (11/1-2)
14. ABC/Post (10/30-11/2)
15. Marist College (11/3)
16. CBS (10/31-11/2)
17. Gallup (10/31-11/2)
18. Reuters/ C-SPAN/ Zogby (10/31-11/3)
19. CBS/Times (10/25-29)
20. Newsweek (10/22-23)"

1 Reply

as of may 29, 2009;

http://sas-origin.onstreammedia.com/origin/gallupinc/GallupSpaces/Production/Cms/POLL/cusrq5svd0udikizqetopq.gif

http://sas-origin.onstreammedia.com/origin/gallupinc/GallupSpaces/Production/Cms/POLL/0w-hpadla0ktlbhyz-4jqa.gif

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@DontTreadOnMe,

DTOM, it kind of puts Obama into perspective, and if his poll numbers drop, he will look to be one of the poorer presidents in terms of popularity or success. So far, he manages to match Jimmy Carter. I have a hard time believing his poll numbers can rise, but it would not be surprising to see them fall, especially given the fact that he will increasingly own this economy as time goes on.

The following Rasmussen has Obama at plus 5, but its dropped 4 points in only a couple days or so I think. I think it will take a more notable occurence to make a drastic shift in this graph.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/var/plain/storage/images/media/images/obama_index_06022/223103-1-eng-US/obama_index_0602.jpg

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@okie,

okie wrote:

Foxfyre wrote:

LOL...you remember the page number?

Here's one link I used for that information in case anybody cares:
http://www.fordham.edu/images/academics/graduate_schools/gsas/elections_and_campaign_/poll%20accuracy%20in%20the%202008%20presidential%20election.pdf

Note the ones bringing up the rear, Foxfyre. Newsweek dead last, well deserved I am sure.

"13. NBC/WSJ (11/1-2)
14. ABC/Post (10/30-11/2)
15. Marist College (11/3)
16. CBS (10/31-11/2)
17. Gallup (10/31-11/2)
18. Reuters/ C-SPAN/ Zogby (10/31-11/3)
19. CBS/Times (10/25-29)
20. Newsweek (10/22-23)"

Without casting any aspersion on Johnboy who has maintained a professionalism and non confrontive and and most amicable presence on these threads despite his only flaw.......he's a tad left of center I think.......he mentioned that Rasmussen is seen as more conservative or right of center than other groups. He is correct that this is the perception at least from many on the Left. I don't think a lot of folks on the right share that perception, but I can't speak for anybody but me.

But I do wonder, looking at all those Alphabet networks etc. at or near the bottom of the list, and also Gallup who is generally hired by those same networks to do their polling, I wonder why it is never suggested that any of them are left of center?

It is a puzzlement.

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@DontTreadOnMe,

I think comparison polls are great, but what's missing is how the country is doing in that given moment in time for each president. Obama has some of the toughest problems facing him from the moment he took over the white house. I wonder how those ratings would compare if those issues were included in the mix from who had it the easiest to who had it the toughest?

1 Reply

@cicerone imposter,

cicerone imposter wrote:

I wonder how those ratings would compare if those issues were included in the mix from who had it the easiest to who had it the toughest?

Lousy. Any other questions?

1 Reply

Obama Kicks Off Trip to Woo Muslims

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@Foxfyre,

Okie and Fox..
You guys keep trotting out this PRELIMINARY report on poll accuracy when it has been pointed out it IS PRELIMINARY and the numbers they used for final voting are off by 1.2 percentage points.

Rasmussen is NOT the most accurate poll and the Newsweek poll is from 2 weeks before the election when many polls were far off. The FOX news poll from 10/29 was farther off than the CBS/NYTimes Poll from 10/29.

And to top it off, ALL the polls were withing the margin of error compared to the final vote.

There is nothing more than statistical noise in this list. The biggest noise being those that trot it out as some kind of evidence that some polls taken 2 or more weeks apart are more accurate than others.

1 Reply

@okie,

okie, You would never understand the meaning of "job performance" if your life depended on it. It has much to do with the difficulties of the job that has no history to rely on, and the skill with which the individual is able to resolve them.

Go crawl back into the cave from which you emerged.

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@Foxfyre,

Thank you for the comment, Foxy. I do try.
I must admit that I came to the "Rasmussen tends to lean a bit to the right" conclusion based on the incredibly in-depth contributions by Nimh during the primaries and general election. His pretty charts and graphs were astounding. He is still around but is not as active as he was.
I read what he wrote about polls and there evidently are subtle nuances in polling (time of day, phrasing of questions etc, etc) that can lead to conclusions about a pollster's "bias." Bias is too strong a word, but I can't think of a word with a less sinister meaning. Perhaps Nimh could give a us a lesson on the subject.

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@parados,

I still have yet to see either of them admit that the data they are using is false; and I'd be willing to bet that it will rear it's ugly head again in the future.

Cycloptichorn

0 Replies

@realjohnboy,

realjohnboy wrote:

Rasmussen intends to ask 1,000 people this question:
"To protest bailouts, should Americans boycott GM and refuse to buy GM cars?"
What % of respondents do you think will say "Yes"?
As a hint, useful or otherwise, 73% of respondents to an earlier Ras poll opposed a GM bailout.

I got an email today from Rasmussen saying that predictions on the outcome of this poll end tonight. The (mode?) average pick is 32% of the 1000 will say boycott GM. They wanted to know if I wanted to change my pick of 12%.

3 Replies

@realjohnboy,

If you want to follow a trend, it is best to pick a single poll, and stay with it. If you want hard fact, polls are only opinion. Let's stay with Rasmussen.

0 Replies

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