Obama '08?

@OCCOM BILL,

Mixed the damn quote-boxes, sorry.

0 Replies

@Lash,

Lash wrote:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080825/ap_on_el_pr/cvn_pelosi;_ylt=AvVMUilhtO2mtzJ7RoYUi5PCw5R4
Pelosi admits to in-fighting...
Women---the powerhouse constituency of the Dem party...ain't feelin him.

Actually, thats not what Pelosi says - I mean, for what that's worth. She says, as I understand it, that Obama already benefits from the gender gap that traditionally puts the Dems in the lead among women, but that nevertheless more still needs to be done to unite the party.

Lemme look at recent polls...

OK, this is the breakdown by gender I could find back from (national) polls conducted in the past two weeks:

Code:

ABC/WaPo 

Aug 19-22



.......... Obama .. McCain .... Net



Women ..... 55% ..... 37% ..... +18

Men ....... 41% ..... 50% ..... - 9





CBS/NYT

Aug 16-19



.......... Obama .. McCain .... Net



Women ..... 45% ..... 37% ..... + 8

Men ....... 44% ..... 47% ..... - 3





LA Times/Bloomberg

Aug 15-18



........... Net



Women ..... +11

Men ....... - 8





Quinnipiac

Aug 12-17



.......... Obama .. McCain .... Net



Women ..... 53% ..... 39% ..... +14

Men ....... 41% ..... 46% ..... - 5





Gallup daily tracking poll, aggregated

Aug 11-17



.......... Obama .. McCain .... Net



Women ..... 49% ..... 39% ..... +10

Men ....... 42% ..... 48% ..... - 6





GWU (Lake/Tarrance - "Battleground poll")

Aug 10-14



........... Net



Women ..... +13

Men ....... -18

So, basically, Obama has a lead among women of somewhere between 8% and 18%, depending on the pollster; but the average is 12.3%, and the median 12%.

He is behind among men by somewhere between 3% and 9%, if we disregard the GWU poll which is all off on its own on this one. Including GWU, the average he's behind by is -8.2% (if you disregard GWU it's -6.2%). The median is -7% or -6%, resp.

OK, now for the kicker -- here's the data by gender from the 2004 and 2000 exit polls:

Code:

.......... KERRY ... BUSH ..... Net



Women ..... 51% ..... 48% ..... + 3

Men ....... 44% ..... 55% ..... -11



.......... GORE .... BUSH ..... Net



Women ..... 54% ..... 43% ..... +11

Men ....... 42% ..... 53% ..... -11

In short, despite all the wailing by PUMAs, Obama does a lot better among women now than Kerry did in the elections; he's ahead by about 10 points more than Kerry was. He's about in line with how Gore did among women. Among men, meanwhile, he does a bit better than either of 'em.

0 Replies

Oh, and I hate it that I now need to use ...s to be able to evenly space these tables even when using "code" tags.

Also, in I think every single poll I listed above, when the numbers were split by gender, men were listed first, women underneath. And no, that wasnt because they were alphabetically listed, because the options to other questions weren't. Odd.

1 Reply

@nimh,

Code:

           KERRY     BUSH       Net



Women       51%       48%       + 3

Men         44%       55%       -11



           GORE      BUSH       Net



Women       54%       43%       +11

Men         42%       53%       -11

Should work now if you clear your cache, but it still has extra line breaks.

1 Reply

Predictable, and it was predicted here, that sooner rather than later some whiteys would try to shoot candidate Obama.

Typically, when you see their pictures, it is remarkable how un-supreme these "white supremacists" look.

Well done, the Denver Police.

2 Replies

@Robert Gentel,

Thanks Robert!

0 Replies

@McTag,

What?

2 Replies

@sozobe,

Who saw the Michelle speech?

I'm reading analyses, looks like it was good!

0 Replies

@sozobe,

Here we go:

Quote:

DENVER -- The Secret Service, FBI and other law enforcement agencies were investigating a possible assassination plot against Barack Obama by white supremacists, and at least three people were in custody, sources confirmed Monday.

Denver's CBS television affiliate reported that those arrested were connected to a potential attempt to kill Obama at Invesco Field, the open-air stadium where the nominee is to deliver his acceptance speech Thursday.

"It's premature to say that it was a valid threat or that these folks have the ability to carry it out," a U.S. government official familiar with the investigation told the Associated Press.

http://www.suntimes.com/news/politics/obama/1126388,fbi082608.article

Well, that sucks. I'm going to take heart from that last paragraph though.

0 Replies

Sozobe:

Quote:

Here we go:

Quote:
DENVER -- The Secret Service, FBI and other law enforcement agencies were investigating a possible assassination plot against Barack Obama by white supremacists, and at least three people were in custody, sources confirmed Monday.

Denver's CBS television affiliate reported that those arrested were connected to a potential attempt to kill Obama at Invesco Field, the open-air stadium where the nominee is to deliver his acceptance speech Thursday.

"It's premature to say that it was a valid threat or that these folks have the ability to carry it out," a U.S. government official familiar with the investigation told the Associated Press.

http://www.suntimes.com/news/politics/obama/1126388,fbi082608.article

Well, that sucks. I'm going to take heart from that last paragraph though.

Doesn't really suprise you, does it?

1 Reply

@snood,

snood wrote:

Sozobe:

Quote:
Here we go:

Quote:
DENVER -- The Secret Service, FBI and other law enforcement agencies were investigating a possible assassination plot against Barack Obama by white supremacists, and at least three people were in custody, sources confirmed Monday.

Denver's CBS television affiliate reported that those arrested were connected to a potential attempt to kill Obama at Invesco Field, the open-air stadium where the nominee is to deliver his acceptance speech Thursday.

"It's premature to say that it was a valid threat or that these folks have the ability to carry it out," a U.S. government official familiar with the investigation told the Associated Press.

http://www.suntimes.com/news/politics/obama/1126388,fbi082608.article

Well, that sucks. I'm going to take heart from that last paragraph though.

Doesn't really suprise you, does it?

Yeah. Not surprised at all.

T
K
O

1 Reply

@Diest TKO,

I must confess that I'm a little surprised. My stepson and I were talking about a possible assassination attempt just the other day and I tried to blow it off by remembering when Harold Washington was elected as the first black mayor of Chicago. I/we were terrified that someone would try and kill him. Chicago was/is such a racist city. But there were no actual attempts so I had hopes that it would be the same this time too. Alot of grumbling, some threats maybe but no actual attempts on his life.

And you have to wonder, is the FBI trying to play it down or is this the media trying to play it up?

2 Replies

@eoe,

I'm worried the media will try to play it up, and what that would mean.

So far it doesn't seem to be too bad. McTag's comment was the first I heard of it, and that was after my early-morning headline scan (hence "what?"), and I had to track it down via Google.

A serious attempt (as in, one that either does what it sets out to do or comes very close) would surprise me, yes. That has more to do with the level of security around the nominees and the president (if Obama gets there) than people's motivations, per se.

Aw crap, lead story right now on CNN, before stuff about the convention. That's exactly what I'm worried about.

1 Reply

@sozobe,

sozobe wrote:

Aw crap, lead story right now on CNN, before stuff about the convention. That's exactly what I'm worried about.

That went better than feared. They teased with it right at the beginning... then a whole bunch of convention stuff... then at the very end they came back to it with "actually, seems to be no big deal." Sounds like there was some guy with a gun and drugs who was stopped (for whatever reason) and he started talking about friends of his who were making threats about Obama, but sounds like it was likely just bluster, and a guy with a gun (for whatever other reason). "No credible threat" is the current FBI take.

1 Reply

Every presidential candidate faces assassination threats. I do think Obama breaking the color barrier probably increases the nutbars who'd like to kill him. I have been concerned about this ever since I thought he might run. Hoping the Secret Service is up to this.

1 Reply

@Lash,

There was the white powder sent to a McCain office a few days ago, so all policians are at risk.

2 Replies

@okie,

Random anecdote:

I moved here (Columbus, OH) a bit over four years ago. At this point in the 2004 election, I saw a lot of Kerry/Edwards bumper stickers and a lot of "W" bumper stickers. I think Kerry/Edwards had the edge, but there were a lot of each.

I swear on a stack of religious texts that I have not seen a single solitary McCain bumper sticker yet, and the place is crawling with Obama bumper stickers. And t-shirts. And hats. And posters. And yardsigns. And and and and...

I have seen some McCain yard signs but that's about it. And they're vastly outnumbered.

1 Reply

@okie,

okie wrote:

There was the white powder sent to a McCain office a few days ago, so all policians are at risk.

Well, white powder doesn't put McCain in risk. It has to be a real threat such as Anthrax etc. His office experienced a threat from some idiots who don't have any real desire to do harm.

People being arrested is another thing...

T
K
O

0 Replies

@sozobe,

sozobe wrote:

Random anecdote:

I moved here (Columbus, OH) a bit over four years ago. At this point in the 2004 election, I saw a lot of Kerry/Edwards bumper stickers and a lot of "W" bumper stickers. I think Kerry/Edwards had the edge, but there were a lot of each.

I swear on a stack of religious texts that I have not seen a single solitary McCain bumper sticker yet, and the place is crawling with Obama bumper stickers. And t-shirts. And hats. And posters. And yardsigns. And and and and...

I have seen some McCain yard signs but that's about it. And they're vastly outnumbered.

But all of the polls say...

1 Reply

@eoe,

eoe wrote:

I must confess that I'm a little surprised. My stepson and I were talking about a possible assassination attempt just the other day and I tried to blow it off by remembering when Harold Washington was elected as the first black mayor of Chicago. I/we were terrified that someone would try and kill him. Chicago was/is such a racist city. But there were no actual attempts so I had hopes that it would be the same this time too. Alot of grumbling, some threats maybe but no actual attempts on his life.

And you have to wonder, is the FBI trying to play it down or is this the media trying to play it up?

Good question. Either way, I bet security in the rafters is pretty high.

T
K
O

0 Replies

Related Topics

Quick Links

My Account

able2know