Obama '08?

Economic models predict clear Obama win in November

Fri Aug 1, 2008 5:03pm BST
By Alister Bull

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - It really is the economy, ...... ! Economic models that have correctly predicted the winner of almost all post-war U.S. presidential elections say recession fears will secure a victory for Barack Obama in November.

Three separate studies showed the Democratic presidential hopeful winning between 52 and 55 percent of the popular vote on November 4, based on current gloomy economic estimates.

Any further darkening in the economic outlook -- many analysts think things will get worse between now and November -- would reinforce that election outcome.

"The economy is certainly not going to be a positive for the Republicans," said Ray Fair, an economics professor at Yale university who built the earliest of the models in 1978.

His model, which assumed tepid U.S. economic growth of 1.5 percent and a 3 percent rate of inflation, predicted the Republican candidate John McCain's share of the vote would be 47.8 percent, handing Obama 52.2 percent.

It's just the opinion of Ed Rooney's secretary, Grace.

Don't get me wrong, I enjoyed the Venn diagram. It was very clever -- which is why I'm sure you didn't do it. But I wouldn't have made the mistake of confusing a Venn diagram with a poll.

I don't know of many people, except on a2k, who would vote for a candidate that will continue to hurt their pocket book.

cicerone imposter wrote:

I don't know of many people, except on a2k, who would vote for a candidate that will continue to hurt their pocket book.

Yeah, most here seem hell bent on supporting the hurtful democratic candidate.

This makes no sense at all.

They ARE meaningless and I am glad you spend all your time hazing the Net to find one you like. The only "poll" that counts comes on 11-4.

List of lawmakers charged with crimes since 2000
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The Associated Press just sent out a list of federal lawmakers who have been charged with crimes since 2000:

• July 29, 2008: Sen. Ted Stevens, R-Alaska, indicted on seven counts of falsely reporting hundreds of thousands of dollars worth of services he received from an oil services company that helped renovate his home.

• Feb. 22, 2008: Rep. Rick Renzi, R-Ariz., indicted on charges of extortion, wire fraud, money laundering and other crimes in an Arizona land swap that authorities say helped him collect hundreds of thousands of dollars in payoffs.

• June 11, 2007: Sen. Larry Craig, R-Idaho, arrested in a bathroom sex sting at the Minneapolis airport. He pleaded guilty to disorderly conduct. He is now asking a state appeals court to let him withdraw his guilty plea.

• June 4, 2007: Rep. William Jefferson, D-La., indicted on federal charges of racketeering, soliciting bribes and money laundering in a long-running bribery investigation into business deals he tried to broker in Africa.

• Jan. 19, 2007: Former Rep. Bob Ney, R-Ohio, sentenced to 2 years in prison for trading political favors for gifts and campaign donations from lobbyist Jack Abramoff.

• March 3, 2006: Former Rep. Randy "Duke" Cunningham, R-Calif., sentenced to eight years and four months in prison. He collected $2.4 million in homes, yachts, antique furnishings and other bribes in a corruption scheme.

• Oct. 3, 2005: Former Rep. Tom DeLay, R-Texas, charged with felony money laundering and conspiracy in connection with Republican fundraising efforts in 2002. One charge has been dropped and two others are being argued before a state appeals court.

• Aug. 29, 2003: Rep. William Janklow, R-S.D., charged with felony second-degree manslaughter and three misdemeanors after his car struck and killed a motorcyclist. He was convicted of vehicular homicide and sentenced to 100 days in prison.

• May 4, 2001: Rep. James Traficant, D-Ohio, indicted by a federal grand jury on charges of tax evasion, bribery, racketeering, conspiracy and obstruction of justice. He was sentenced to eight years in prison after being convicted of racketeering and accepting bribes.

You don't have to be a meteorologist to forecast what appears likely in North Carolina's elections. There are many indications that state Democrats may enjoy big victories at the polls November 4th.

For starters, elections officials report huge increases in numbers registering to vote. Some 257,000 have been added to the rolls since January, 51,000 of them since the May primaries. Of that number 145,000 registered as Democrats, while only 17,000 listed the Republican Party, an eight to one registration advantage for Democrats.

95,000 registered as Unaffiliated. Who are these people? We are told many are young and African Americans registering for the first time. It is a safe assumption many have registered to vote for Barack Obama.

We now have 5.9 million registered voters and Bob Hall of the watchdog group Democracy North Carolina is advising local officials to expect a large turnout and long lines, recommending more polling sites for early voting and more polling staff on Election Day. The record turnout of two million in the May primaries would certainly signal heightened voter interest.

Now for a more meaningful graphic.

How is Obama doing, relative to how Kerry did?



As you can see, the ONE group he is behind on is 'Democrats.' This is a hold-over effect from Clinton's attempt at the nomination. I fully expect that number to turn around after the convention and as we get closer to election day.

As it is, it shows why McCain is losing; Obama is FAR ahead of where Kerry was, on almost every single metric.

Cycloptichorn

Cycloptichorn wrote:

Now for a more meaningful graphic.

How is Obama doing, relative to how Kerry did?



As you can see, the ONE group he is behind on is 'Democrats.' This is a hold-over effect from Clinton's attempt at the nomination. I fully expect that number to turn around after the convention and as we get closer to election day.

As it is, it shows why McCain is losing; Obama is FAR ahead of where Kerry was, on almost every single metric.

Cycloptichorn

Hey Cyclo, interesting. What is the data based on? Are the Kerry numbers based on the exit polls from the actual election? And the Obama ones from a recent poll, I guess? Which one?

Looks like we have a horse race

Right on both counts!

The Obama ones are from an average of the last three weeks of Gallup polling. This whole thing comes to us per Nate Silver, rising star in political polling!

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/08/obama-outperforming-kerry-among-nearly.html

Only if McCain dramatically changes his tactics and somehow rises in the polls in 10-15 different states, that is.