Obama '08?

real life wrote:

Cycloptichorn wrote:

realjohnboy wrote:

real life wrote:

Whose 'electoral map' are you referring to (sorry if I've missed it, I've been away from this thread quite a bit lately) and on what basis are they saying 'this is solid, and this over here isn't' ?

The two cited by Cyclo are pollster.com (which has Obama up 292-192). and electoral-vote.com (Obama up 284-147).
Both are derived from amalgamations of regular polling and each of them explains how they made the determinations.

From pollster.com -

Quote:

What is the basis of the classification of each race?
For 8 or more polls, we calculate a "confidence interval" around the trend estimate. This reflects the uncertainty in the estimate due to random noise in the polling data.

If a race shows a lead that is outside the 95% confidence interval, then we classify this as a "strong" lead. If the lead is between the 68% and 95% confidence intervals, then we classify it as a "lean". If the race is inside the 68% confidence interval, then we classify the race as "too close to call".

For races with fewer than eight polls, we use the same cutoff points for the confidence interval, but base that interval around either the regression estimate (for 4-7 polls) or the mean of the polls (for 1-3 polls). With few polls, we use a confidence interval based on the average sample size for the available polls.

By their account, 231 of Obama's electoral votes are currently Strong - which is to say, he has a solid lead across many polls. McCain only has 75 'strong' electoral votes; that's a big difference!

Cycloptichorn

ok thanks

I've previously said that I currently rate Obama about a 2-1 favorite to win at this point.

Not that I'm glad to make that appraisal, it just appears accurate to me at this juncture.

Lots of good reasons why it shouldn't be, but I am hopeful that as the American public 'tunes in' to the election after the conventions that this will change.

I think we are in a distinct minority of those who pay very close attention to these things nearly year round.

Most Americans don't.

real, Share that info with H2O and ican will ya? They're still under the impression that it's still a close race.

cicerone imposter wrote:

O'Bill, What gets to me about those poll charts is that the tv media people are saying that McCain is catching up with Obama. How in the hell do they come to that conclusion? It looks like McCain is slipping away to goner status - slowly, but surely.

I don't know, but can only assume, this reflects the simple truth that a closer race is a better story and therefore increases ratings. Look how long after Hillary was toast they pretended she wasn't. IMO, they are simply increasing their market share by catering to the ignorant... who refuse to take 30 seconds to fact check before making fools of themselves. (shrugs)

INTRADE.COM is still offering 2 to 1 if the morons want to put their money where their mouths are. I'd wager they don't. :wink:

On January 30, 2007, Barack Obama introduced the Iraq War De-Escalation Act of 2007 (S 433). The plan would have stopped the 2007 U.S. Troop Surge of 21,500 in Iraq, and would also have begun a phased redeployment of troops from Iraq with the goal of removing all combat forces by March 31, 2008.

Quote:

On January 30, 2007, Barack Obama introduced the Iraq War De-Escalation Act of 2007 (S 433). The plan would have stopped the 2007 U.S. Troop Surge of 21,500 in Iraq, and would also have begun a phased redeployment of troops from Iraq with the goal of removing all combat forces by March 31, 2008.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iraq_War_De-Escalation_Act_of_2007

Obama was wrong on the surge then and now.

It has worked.

Who proposed it?

hmmm, I think it was John McCain.

Even now while praising the results of the surge, Obama stubbornly refuses to acknowledge his poor judgement.

O'Bill, What gets to me about those poll charts is that the tv media people are saying that McCain is catching up with Obama. How in the hell do they come to that conclusion? It looks like McCain is slipping away to goner status - slowly, but surely.

INTRADE.COM is still offering 2 to 1 if the morons want to put their money where their mouths are. I'd wager they don't.

OCCOM BILL wrote:

cicerone imposter wrote:

O'Bill, What gets to me about those poll charts is that the tv media people are saying that McCain is catching up with Obama. How in the hell do they come to that conclusion? It looks like McCain is slipping away to goner status - slowly, but surely.

I don't know, but can only assume, this reflects the simple truth that a closer race is a better story and therefore increases ratings. Look how long after Hillary was toast they pretended she wasn't. IMO, they are simply increasing their market share by catering to the ignorant... who refuse to take 30 seconds to fact check before making fools of themselves. (shrugs)

INTRADE.COM is still offering 2 to 1 if the morons want to put their money where their mouths are. I'd wager they don't. :wink:

So people who believe McCain will win are morons now? I guess that's par for the course since people who don't believe Obama will win are clearly racists.

You really should learn how to do this RJB. :wink:

OCCOM BILL wrote:

You really should learn how to do this RJB. :wink:

Yes, I should. I am really dumb at this computer thing. The band, Bella Morte, comes off their month and a half long tour tomorrow. Some of them work for me and are much more savvy about navigating this thing. I will try to get help.

cicerone imposter wrote:

They're still under the impression that it's still a close race.

Yeah, it's head-to-head and Obama is slipping while McCain gains strength.