Obama '08?

Whose 'electoral map' are you referring to (sorry if I've missed it, I've been away from this thread quite a bit lately) and on what basis are they saying 'this is solid, and this over here isn't' ?

real life wrote:

Whose 'electoral map' are you referring to (sorry if I've missed it, I've been away from this thread quite a bit lately) and on what basis are they saying 'this is solid, and this over here isn't' ?

The two cited by Cyclo are pollster.com (which has Obama up 292-192). and electoral-vote.com (Obama up 284-147).
Both are derived from amalgamations of regular polling and each of them explains how they made the determinations.

What is the basis of the classification of each race?
For 8 or more polls, we calculate a "confidence interval" around the trend estimate. This reflects the uncertainty in the estimate due to random noise in the polling data.

If a race shows a lead that is outside the 95% confidence interval, then we classify this as a "strong" lead. If the lead is between the 68% and 95% confidence intervals, then we classify it as a "lean". If the race is inside the 68% confidence interval, then we classify the race as "too close to call".

For races with fewer than eight polls, we use the same cutoff points for the confidence interval, but base that interval around either the regression estimate (for 4-7 polls) or the mean of the polls (for 1-3 polls). With few polls, we use a confidence interval based on the average sample size for the available polls.

McCain announced that he will bring in Osama bin Ladin, and put him on trial.


Senile? Yup!

I see the dumbmasses in Europe are easily fooled by Obama as well ...

The Democrat's selection process was flawed from the start. It was a media movie.

Please go on ....

okie wrote:

real life wrote:

Obama's health care plan does not exclude illegal immigrants.

You'll pay for their health care.

Fellow citizens of the world, ....

Okie, with respect, Real Life never said anything against Foreign Aid.

realjohnboy wrote:

real life wrote:

Whose 'electoral map' are you referring to (sorry if I've missed it, I've been away from this thread quite a bit lately) and on what basis are they saying 'this is solid, and this over here isn't' ?

The two cited by Cyclo are pollster.com (which has Obama up 292-192). and electoral-vote.com (Obama up 284-147).
Both are derived from amalgamations of regular polling and each of them explains how they made the determinations.

From pollster.com -

Quote:

What is the basis of the classification of each race?
For 8 or more polls, we calculate a "confidence interval" around the trend estimate. This reflects the uncertainty in the estimate due to random noise in the polling data.

If a race shows a lead that is outside the 95% confidence interval, then we classify this as a "strong" lead. If the lead is between the 68% and 95% confidence intervals, then we classify it as a "lean". If the race is inside the 68% confidence interval, then we classify the race as "too close to call".

For races with fewer than eight polls, we use the same cutoff points for the confidence interval, but base that interval around either the regression estimate (for 4-7 polls) or the mean of the polls (for 1-3 polls). With few polls, we use a confidence interval based on the average sample size for the available polls.

By their account, 231 of Obama's electoral votes are currently Strong - which is to say, he has a solid lead across many polls. McCain only has 75 'strong' electoral votes; that's a big difference!

Cycloptichorn

Cycloptichorn wrote:

realjohnboy wrote:

real life wrote:

Whose 'electoral map' are you referring to (sorry if I've missed it, I've been away from this thread quite a bit lately) and on what basis are they saying 'this is solid, and this over here isn't' ?

The two cited by Cyclo are pollster.com (which has Obama up 292-192). and electoral-vote.com (Obama up 284-147).
Both are derived from amalgamations of regular polling and each of them explains how they made the determinations.

From pollster.com -

Quote:

What is the basis of the classification of each race?
For 8 or more polls, we calculate a "confidence interval" around the trend estimate. This reflects the uncertainty in the estimate due to random noise in the polling data.

If a race shows a lead that is outside the 95% confidence interval, then we classify this as a "strong" lead. If the lead is between the 68% and 95% confidence intervals, then we classify it as a "lean". If the race is inside the 68% confidence interval, then we classify the race as "too close to call".

For races with fewer than eight polls, we use the same cutoff points for the confidence interval, but base that interval around either the regression estimate (for 4-7 polls) or the mean of the polls (for 1-3 polls). With few polls, we use a confidence interval based on the average sample size for the available polls.

By their account, 231 of Obama's electoral votes are currently Strong - which is to say, he has a solid lead across many polls. McCain only has 75 'strong' electoral votes; that's a big difference!

Cycloptichorn

ok thanks

I've previously said that I currently rate Obama about a 2-1 favorite to win at this point.

Not that I'm glad to make that appraisal, it just appears accurate to me at this juncture.

Lots of good reasons why it shouldn't be, but I am hopeful that as the American public 'tunes in' to the election after the conventions that this will change.

I think we are in a distinct minority of those who pay very close attention to these things nearly year round.

Most Americans don't.

Obama wears a Kippah in Israel and then jumps for joy in front of 100,000 Germans (minus the Kippah).

Did Obama also visit the remains of German death camps while in Germany?

They're still under the impression that it's still a close race.

Obama wears a Kippah in Israel and then jumps for joy in front of 100,000 Germans (minus the Kippah).

Did Obama also visit the remains of German death camps while in Germany?

O'Bill, What gets to me about those poll charts is that the tv media people are saying that McCain is catching up with Obama. How in the hell do they come to that conclusion? It looks like McCain is slipping away to goner status - slowly, but surely.