joefromchicago wrote: OCCOM BILL wrote:Sez you. A rather silly time to resort to such a tactic, too; since for two quotes in a row I was recognizing the reasonable difference of opinion we have on assigning rank to our objectives.
Not silly at all. The time to conclude that you are convincingly, irretrievably wrong is at the point where all possibility of persuasion is exhausted. That happened when you said that it was time for us to agree to disagree.
Having never seen any demonstration of a propensity towards any possibility of persuasion from you, on this thread or any previous DP discussion, that's a sorry excuse for your Sez me. I too, tend to believe in my conclusions until they are proven false, but have frequently demonstrated a better ability to admit to such an occurrence.
joefromchicago wrote:OCCOM BILL wrote:No Joe, that isn't complete nonsense. Your response however, is. I made no claim that the death penalty was the only punishment; I said it was what the ultimate punishment could be. I'd like to give you the benefit of the doubt and consider this a misunderstanding on your part, but you're becoming increasingly obvious in your attempts to discredit my valid arguments with nonsense yourself.
But that still does not explain why there appears to be a direct correlation between executions and murders in the period up to 1960 and an inverse correlation afterwards. If more executions = less murders, then we would expect that the pre-1960 period would show a rise in murders -- but it doesn't.
Try to follow along here, Joe. Prior to the 60's era anti-DP success, there was no reason to consider an execution/murder ratio (per my theory) because it was well established and common knowledge that the DP could be the ultimate punishment for murder... though the fact that the ratio remained relatively constant could lend some credibility to the theory that the later absence of DP was (at least in part) responsible for the spike in murders in the next period. During the following period, when the DP was near-non-existent to non-existent; the murder rates spiked up dramatically. Next, the resumption of DP in earnest coincides with the numbers being cut in half once again. So far this isn't opinion, Joe; it's a simple reflection of historical trends.
Previously, I tipped my hat to Thomas' expertise and conceded that there may well be an alternative explanation for the obvious trend (though none has been provided, by anyone), but "Joefromchicago said so" isn't one of them. Thus far you've offered no alternative explanation for the obvious deviation... rather you've chosen to snidely draw attention to my non-expert-admission while implying that
you are better qualified to explain it. Why haven't you?
joefromchicago wrote:I suppose it's possible you're suggesting that there were just fewer executions because deterence was actually working, such that the pre-1960 period saw the following cycle at work: capital punishment --> fewer murders --> fewer murderers --> fewer executions. If that's the case, though, we should see the same cycle reiterated some time after 1976, when the USSC declared that the death penalty could be constitutional. It has been thirty years since death again could be the ultimate punishment -- the same amount of time between 1930 and 1960, at the left end of your graph. So why hasn't the pattern reestablished itself?
The above explanation strikes me as sound enough, but your conclusion bares no recognition of the information contained in that graph. (And you think I'm the one having trouble reading it?)1976 is when the USSC declared the DP constitutional, but as demonstrated by the graph it was scarcely utilized until later... so couldn't be expected to provide much of a deterrent. As for re-establishment, you're either looking at a different graph or are displaying an acute inability to read one. By the year 2000, the murder rate had dropped to 5.5... which is approximately where it was at in 1960. Coincidentally(?), this occurred just after the DP rates had returned to pre 1960 levels. After the big bubble of discrepancy, the graph indicates that the execution/murder ratio returned to essentially the same level as they were before the DP moratorium debacle.
Next let's check and see if they stayed there, shall we?
According to this chart from the FBI, the murder numbers have remained fairly consistent since the graph ended in 2000.
Now lets cross reference the FBI's murder numbers to the execution numbers and examine the ratio between them. I'll use the numbers from the DPIC (your source):
2000 executions-85- 5.5 per 100,000
2001 executions-66- 5.6 per 100,000
2002 executions-71- 5.6 per 100,000
2003 executions-65- 5.7 per 100,000
2004 executions-59- 5.5 per 100,000
As you can see, the execution/murder ratio has returned to a relative lockstep, much like it was prior to the anti-DP campaign's success.
Do you still wish to contend that the pattern has not reestablished itself?
joefromchicago wrote:OCCOM BILL wrote:Yes Joe; I freely admit I'm neither an expert in law nor history nor statistics. That's why I suggested everyone would have to interpret them for themselves. (This type of sniping is as unnecessary as it is inappropriate.)
I do not subscribe to the Protestant notion that everyone is qualified to interpret the evidence for themselves. As you amply demonstrate, there is no reason to assume that everyone is even competent to read and interpret a simple graph. That you choose to do so despite your obvious limitations is a reflection on you and your argument, whether you like it or not.
Actually Joe, I agree with your words, just not the snide sentiment. In fact, I take pride in my ability to admit my limitations. Your seeming inability to do the same says just as much about you.
(See above to clarify which one of us really has trouble reading a graph :wink:)
joefromchicago wrote: OCCOM BILL wrote:Here again; you've deliberately misinterpreted my words. I googled up a sufficient number of murders to satisfy myself that the number would exceed six. May I remind you that even those six have yet to be proven to be erroneous State executions. Your rant may be convincing to those predisposed to agree with you but is utterly lacking in content.
Those six cases are important to you, not to me, so I regard your attempts to counter them as irrelevant. For the purposes of this argument, I really don't care if six innocent persons were executed or if a hundred were or if none were. Frankly, I don't think that any of those six cases have been conclusively found to be innocent, but then that's the nature of these cases: when the state kills its mistakes, there are few people who can be bothered with correcting them.
That beats the hell out of your earlier uncalled for sarcasm since my argument against the fact that recidivism causes more innocent death than the State is damn near irrefutable. Thanks for the late concession. Better late than never.
joefromchicago wrote:What you need to do (and what you still haven't done) is show why capital punishment is preferable to life without parole.
I've done so all along. Look below.
joefromchicago wrote:OCCOM BILL wrote:McDuff remains a perfect example of what can and has happened when condemnation is commuted to life imprisonment.
No, it's a perfect example of what can happen when a murderer is released on parole.
And therein lies the problem, Joe. Sentencing laws do change and have resulted in condemned-> commuted to life-> to parole-> recidivism... as well as additional dangers to guards, prison employees and inmates alike. Historically, DP has proven to be the only proven safeguard against recidivism.
Now, you still have yet to provide an alternative explanation for the enormous spike (double) in murder rates that accompanied the lack of executions and coincidentally(?) dropped back in half upon their resumption in earnest.