You gave that some really good thought and I mostly agree. The favorite of the majority of the film critics is not that likely to win either. That's rarely been true, even though many film critics play the "what will Oscar like" game. That we see all the films and have our favorite performances, cinematography, music, direction and on that basis come up with a best picture that the film doesn't get the Oscar doesn't make it any less of a film (especially with "Brokeback's" string of awards -- it can give the impression of greed although I don't think that is the case). The editing Oscar is really perculiar as that is where the artistic really bridges over into the technical. The best picture, even if it doesn't get the most awards has not won the Oscar without winning the editing prize is an extraodinary precedent.
Although there has been some suspicious tactics surrounding this year's award, it might happen every year without anyone trying to expose it. Members of the academy confessing they did not see all the films, stating they will not see a film for some personal reason that remains superficially explained, strong rumors in the industry that there was a campaign to actually contact voting members to lobby against a film. Ebert and Roeper being associated with the actual show and Ebert especially campaigning for the film -- all of this has a funny smell.
I don't know where this will end up but in the end, Oscar will likely remain omnipotent even if it now seems impotent to many people. Not that we ever want to see the statue get a hard-on.
(Ooops, wait, is that a sword or are you just happy to see me).