Deja Vu all over again?

Forums: Politics, Iran
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With past as prologue, this all could portend something very worrisome:

Quote:

Iran Threatens to Block U.N. Inspections
Jan 13, 11:58 AM (ET)

By ALI AKBAR DAREINI

TEHRAN, Iran (AP) - Iran threatened on Friday to block inspections of its nuclear sites if confronted by the U.N. Security Council over its atomic activities. The hard-line president reaffirmed his country's intention to produce nuclear energy.

The move came a day after France, Britain and Germany - backed by the United States - said that nuclear talks with Iran had reached a dead end after more than two years of acrimonious negotiations and the issue should be referred to the Security Council ...

Quote:

Israel Urges Sanctions Against Iran

Jan 13 1:30 PM US/Eastern
By AMY TEIBEL
Associated Press Writer

JERUSALEM

Israel on Friday urged the international community to threaten Iran with sanctions if it doesn't abandon its nuclear ambitions, following new threats from Tehran to block U.N. inspections of its atomic sites.

Israeli officials said they remain hopeful that diplomacy can end the crisis, but they warned a military strike led by others against Iranian nuclear facilities may be necessary ...

Quote:

Fighters deploy

Coinciding with increased tensions with Iran over the resumption of illicit uranium enrichment, the U.S. Air Force has dispatched additional warplanes to the region in a not-so-subtle sign, military sources say.

An entire wing of F-16s, the Air National Guard's 122nd Fighter Wing based in Fort Wayne, Ind., left for a base in southwest Asia on Tuesday. A wing is usually about 72 aircraft and several hundred support personnel.

F-16s and support personnel from the 4th Fighter Squadron of the 388th Fighter Wing based at Hill Air Force Base, Utah, also deployed recently to Iraq ...

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Have lessons been learned?
Will they be applied?
Tune in next time for the answers to these and other questions...

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Iraq would look like a cake-walk in comparison to an attempted invasion of Iran.

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Timber - also a certain aircraft carrier left San Diego for the "region" a week or so ago. I wondered about that at the time heard about it......(hello, Tehran?)

Oh - that ANG wing from Indiana is much smaller than usual, though. It's only comprised of about 15 aircraft IIRC.

<And don't forget the Iranian plane that crashed recently, killing that military bigwig and 12 others...cause unknown>

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An invasion of Iran is unlikely. What is more likely is an Israeli air strike against any Iranian nuclear facility, much like the 1981 strike that destroyed the Iraqi nuclear facility at Osirak and that is briefly alluded to in the second linked article posted by timberlandko. There are some very significant obstacles to such a strike, not the least of which is that any potential target is outside the effective range of Israeli bombers. Furthermore, Israeli planes would probably fly over Iraq on their way to Iran, which would make the US complicit in the eyes of the Iranians. Any counter-strike, then, would just as likely be against US forces in Iraq as it would be against Israel.

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Perhaps that's what we want?

Israel bombs Iran, they attack us, we use that as justification to attack them.

Man, I feel bad for the Iraqi people, caught up in the middle of all this mess, sheesh. I doubt that Iraq will allow us to use their country as a staging point for an invasion of Iran.

Cycloptichorn

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I doubt Iran could be defeated by the US, the reverse if anything.

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JustWonders wrote:

Timber - also a certain aircraft carrier left San Diego for the "region" a week or so ago. I wondered about that at the time heard about it......(hello, Tehran?)

Oh - that ANG wing from Indiana is much smaller than usual, though. It's only comprised of about 15 aircraft IIRC.

<And don't forget the Iranian plane that crashed recently, killing that military bigwig and 12 others...cause unknown>

Quote:

Navy's USS Ronald Reagan takes first mission in western Pacific

(San Diego, California-NBC) Jan. 4, 2006 - The newest ship in the Navy's fleet was deployed for the first time Wednesday.

The nuclear powered aircraft carrier Ronald Reagan left California's Naval Air Station Tuesday morning around 9:00 local time. The ship, which is longer than three football fields, will lead a six-ship strike group conducting anti-terrorism operations in the western Pacific.

The USS Ronald Reagan carries more than 80 combat aircraft and some 6,000 sailors.

This is the Reagan's first full-scale deployment since being commissioned in July 2003. The mission is scheduled to last about six months.

The Indiana ANG's 122nd FW is a full-strength Wing, with components based at several locations, as well as associated assets based other than in Indiana; I do recall, however, that in the most recent BRAC rounds, 15 of its F-16s, a squadron, were slated to be retired. Dunno if that came about.

As for the Iranian military plane crashes (there have been several recently), I gotta figure maintenance and training shortcomings are the key factor there. And as for Iran's miltary capability overall, I strongly suspect many, including the Iranians themselves, greatly overestimate it.

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Does the invasion of Iraq act as a deterrent or an encouragement to Iran?

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source of merriment

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I think its saber rattling in order to see if there would be an indication by Iran to make some concessions. I personally have no enthusiasm for messing with Iran, although I think their nuclear program is definitely a threat in the region and possibly getting into the hands of terrorists. I think their military could easily be defeated, but beyond that, the problems would be alot more problematic than Iraq.

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timberlandko wrote:

As for the Iranian military plane crashes (there have been several recently), I gotta figure maintenance and training shortcomings are the key factor there. And as for Iran's miltary capability overall, I strongly suspect many, including the Iranians themselves, greatly overestimate it.

Well, that's what I meant by "cause unknown" - of course it's never "pilot error" with them.

They did blame the latest crash on us, though, (embargo against aircraft parts, blah blah blah). Even when it was a French plane that went down.

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I suspect the hardliners at the top of the Iranian government believe the US has her hands tied with current operations, and perceive opportunity for themselves in the US commitments to the region. I believe also the Iranians take this tack at their own peril. While it is true we have cosiderable force presence in the region, some 150,000 troops ina ll between the Iraq theater andf the Afghanistan theater, that amounts to just about 10% of our active duty military, without even considering the Guard and Reserve components of our total force structue.

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How many troops could we concievably field, in toto? And can we remove our troops from Iraq without opening the door to the terrorists? 'cause that's what Bush keeps sayin...

Cycloptichorn

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so you going to invade timber?

that is timber, i ask you, is usa going to invade iran?

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For whatever the relative quality of the current Iranian military, they demonstrated in their war with Iraq that they could deal effectively with an army equipped with (then) state-of-the-art equipment even though not so equipped themselves. I also contend that the Big Bird is painting a ridiculously rosey picture of the human resources we have available for such a venture. I have already explained by i consider this to be the Wrong Time, Wrong Place, Wrong War.

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Iran is four times larger in area and the Persian Gulf is controlled by Iran unlike Iraq which had only a small shore line. Besides the majority of Iraqis are Shiites. They could get themselves into the Iran fight by aiding the Sunnis in fighting Bushites.

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And then there's China, Russia, ...

One has to wonder, just why it is that Israel is allowed, aided and abetted in possessing nuclear weapons.

I wonder what spoonful of sugar will help this hypocrisy go down.

This'll likely be the clincher that'll win over the hearts & minds of all folks within the Arab world.

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Setanta wrote:

Wrong Time, Wrong Place, Wrong War

Unless there is alot more to this than we know now, I think I agree.

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Thanks set for your post on the folly of invading Iran. Truly informative and well reasoned. I'm currently reading Robert Fisk, The Great war for Civilisation, he goes into the Iran Iraq conflict in some detail (literally).

I'm sure you are correct about the physical difficulty of invading a country like Iran. What horrified me about what Fisk had to say on Iran was that they have an absolute and perfect belief that they (Iranian soliders) are immortal. Hence children ride mopeds into minefields to clear a path. Old men and women volunteer to become martyrs for Islam. The Iran Iraq war united Iran and completed the Islamic revolution. They have God on their side, we dont stand a chance, not just because of geography but ideology and religion. Personally I have no doubt western forces will not try to invade. But I do think we will try to forment revolution and maybe launch selective military strikes.

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Deja Vu all over again?

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