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The US, UN & Iraq III

 
 
Steve 41oo
 
  1  
Reply Sun 18 May, 2003 05:13 am
Nice posts McTag

I guess I've been scratching round for reasons to explain the inexplicable. I agree with you actually, Blair did have a choice and the fact that he chose GWB above Europe is what I find inexplicable - for a man who leads a left of centre party, a committed "European" and has (or rather had) ideas about Britain leading in Europe. Blair is an intelligent man. He must have known the stories about WMD to be at best exaggerated, at worst complete fabrications. Yet he used that as a reason to commit British forces to provide GWB with a political fig leaf (they were never needed militarily) for an adventure which if it went "right" would split his party and the country and terminate Britain's ambitions in Europe, and if it went "wrong" would end his career and probably New Labour as well. Inexplicable.
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Steve 41oo
 
  1  
Reply Sun 18 May, 2003 05:31 am
Re the James Lacy article above.

I think it quite ludicrous to suggest that Saddam did not know the full extent of his WMD programmes. This was a man who knew everything in Iraq. He knew people who were a threat to him and killed them even before they themselves knew it. You did not deceive or lie to Saddam if you wished to continue drawing breath.
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Joe Nation
 
  1  
Reply Sun 18 May, 2003 08:01 am
The Lacey scenario is still possible though, and not as ludicrous as it sounds. It's a time honored tradition in the military to con the bureaucrats, tell them you have 5000 men in arms (when you have 4000) and need the appropriate provisions, then when the food, munitions etc arrive you make a tidy profit by selling the extra stuff, either to the locals or wherever it's necessary to go. We did it too. I seem to remember a couple of quartermasters going to jail in 70's when it was revealed they were offloading supplies from one plane at Cam Ranh Bay and flying them out to the Phillipines on another. Everybody split the money on Saturday night.
It wouldn't be so hard to do a Billy Sol Estes on mobile labs. You show the government dudes some photos of ten trailers all nice and lined up at one spot, if they want to see them in person you tell them "Well, okay, but between you and me, those labs aren't what you call squeaky clean, so watch what you touch." So maybe they want to see them from a safer distance, you know? And you get yourself a three or four sets of ID plates and decals and what you know !!-- you got yourself fifty mobile labs that they are sending you stuff for every month. Sweet.
==
Now they could fool the Iraqi paper pushers, but could they fool the Central Intelligence Agency? (You mean the guys who were only looking for confirmations of their exalted leader's expectations? Natch) The second thing we learned in Air Force Intelligence was to ignore your expectations and study the facts.

Joe
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cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Sun 18 May, 2003 10:37 am
Joe Nation, Trying to determine what are "facts" can be daunting in and of itself. Wink c.i.
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blatham
 
  1  
Reply Sun 18 May, 2003 10:45 am
NOT IRAQ

The US, scourge of bad guys and great releiver of human misery wherever it appears (pshaw on oil) will surely mount a campaign equal to the one against Sadaam when the administration hears about the Congo...it will be days at most, I'm sure.
http://slate.msn.com/id/2083029/
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Tartarin
 
  1  
Reply Sun 18 May, 2003 10:52 am
What are their energy assets, Blatham? Their importance to the interests of American multinationals? Should we bother?
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Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Sun 18 May, 2003 10:55 am
Certainly, blatham. Especially, since last month the Congolese government and a US oil company have signed production sharing contracts for offshore oil permits in Republic of Congo territorial waters.
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Scrat
 
  1  
Reply Sun 18 May, 2003 06:57 pm
Re: d
Gelisgesti wrote:


Your NYTimes link didn't work for me, but the first source I found (AP byline) certainly seems to dispute the claim:

Quote:
U.S. Administrator Touts City Council in Northern Iraq
Sunday, May 18, 2003
Associated PressL. Paul Bremer, Iraq's civilian administrator, said the United States remained committed to establishing an interim national government without delay.

"We are intent on moving as quickly as possible," Bremer said.

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,87177,00.html
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mamajuana
 
  1  
Reply Sun 18 May, 2003 10:58 pm
Goody goody for Bremer, who reports back to the WH. And that's a quote from Fox News, which we are supposed to take seriously? Says a whole lot, doesn't it?

Hey, joe nation, Billy Sol Estes? Haven't thought of him for a long time. Isn't that the Texan who sold the farmers empty fertilizer tanks?
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Scrat
 
  1  
Reply Mon 19 May, 2003 03:00 am
mj - It is an AP wire story. Where I happened to find it and link to it is irrelevent to all but the blindly biased.

Anyone got a link that works to any story clarifying the claim Gelis' story seems (from her quote--link still does not work) to be making?
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nimh
 
  1  
Reply Mon 19 May, 2003 03:18 am
Scrat wrote:
Anyone got a link that works to any story clarifying the claim Gelis' story seems (from her quote--link still does not work) to be making?


Link Gelis' gave seems to work for me: Here it is again.

It quotes AP as well, so I dont know whether AP contradicted itself, NYT editorialised the story differently or the story simply changed over the weekend - haven't followed it myself.

This is, in addition to what G posted, from the NYT story:

NY Times wrote:
Mr. Bremer, who was accompanied by John Sawers, a British diplomat representing Prime Minister Tony Blair, told the Iraqi political figures that the allies preferred to revert to the concept of creating an "interim authority" - not a provisional government - so that Iraqis could assist them by creating a constitution for Iraq, revamping the educational system and devising a plan for future democratic elections.

"It's quite clear that you cannot transfer all powers onto some interim body, because it will not have the strength or the resources to carry those responsibilities out," The Associated Press quoted Mr. Sawers as saying. "There was agreement that we should aim to have a national conference as soon as we reasonably could do so."

One Iraqi who attended the meeting said Iraqi opposition leaders expressed strong disappointment over the reversal.
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nimh
 
  1  
Reply Mon 19 May, 2003 03:24 am
But I came here to point out a related development in Europe: in the Belgian elections yesterday, the ruling government won. I'll just copy a post I made about it in the Belgian 'Malcolm X' ... thread here; there's more detailed info there too.

nimh, on th'other thread ;-) wrote:
The result is a resounding victory for the ruling "purple" government of liberals and socialists, by the way. In 1999, the Christian Democrats were removed from a long-standing hold on power and replaced by a government of liberals (who are considered right-wing here), socialists and greens.

The government attracted an unusual degree of international attention with its sharply worded position against the war in Iraq. It does not appear to have done the parties involved any harm.

Though the Green vote did collapse Belgium-wide, the Socialist and Liberal gains more than made up for it. The (Wallonian liberal) party of foreign minister Louis Michel, for example, gained 4% and as many seats.

Liberals and Socialists now will have a majority in parliament by themselves, and are thus likely to continue the "purple" experiment, sans Greens.
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nimh
 
  1  
Reply Mon 19 May, 2003 03:47 am
The NYT followed up the story with this one yesterday:

------
Shiite Group Says U.S. Is Reneging on Interim Rule
By EDMUND L. ANDREWS

BAGHDAD, Iraq, May 18 - One of Iraq's largest Shiite political groups accused the United States' new civilian administrator today of reneging on promises to support the rapid creation of an Iraqi-led interim government.

"We were talking about an interim government, with authority to make decisions," said Adel Abdel Mahdi, political adviser to the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq. But, he continued, a draft resolution sponsored by the United States at the United Nations is "clearly something else."

The Supreme Council and its newly returned leader, Ayatollah Muhammad Bakr al-Hakim, have close ties to Iran and have long been critical of the United States. But the Shiite group's unhappiness and suspicion regarding recent American statements echo sentiments in a wide range of other parties, including the two main Kurdish political groups and the strongly pro-American Iraqi National Congress under Ahmad Chalabi.

But the new American civilian administrator, L. Paul Bremer III, insisted today that he had no plans to delay the creation of an interim Iraqi authority and said he would hold more meetings with Iraqi political leaders within the next two weeks.

"I don't accept the hypothesis that there has been any delay," Mr. Bremer said during a trip to Mosul, in northern Iraq. "I don't know where these stories are coming from, because we haven't delayed anything."

But Mr. Bremer continued to use the phrase "interim authority," rather than "interim government," and Iraqi political leaders from several factions said he had made it clear to them on Friday that the United States wanted to retain control over crucial levers of power for an indefinite period.

Even as Mr. Bremer toured Mosul and praised it as a "great example of embryonic democracy," ethnic Kurds and Arabs in the nearby city of Kirkuk continued to clash over control of land and houses in the Kurdish-dominated north.

On Saturday, at least 9 people were killed and more than 40 were injured during battles between Kurds and Arabs, with casualties on both sides. Today a crowd of 200 to 300 Arabs in Kirkuk marched through town carrying the coffin of a man they said had been killed by American forces this morning.

It was unclear today whether American soldiers had killed the man. But the protesters peppered their demonstration with shouts that "America is the enemy of God."

[..] The United States Central Command said today that three Americans were killed and four were injured in three separate incidents in Iraq.
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nimh
 
  1  
Reply Mon 19 May, 2003 03:57 am
Meanwhile, I stumbled over something in yet another NYT story, though. One thing many critics of war have always emphasised was that the Bush government had no realistic plans for post-war Iraq worked out. Yet this critical article verges on gloating when it notes that

Quote:
Long before President Bush ordered the attack against Iraq, the White House and the Pentagon drew up a plan for rebuilding and running the country after the war that was nearly as meticulous as the battle plan.

But over the past two to three weeks, the wheels have threatened to come off their vehicle for establishing the peace.


Of course I know that each of us war critics is an individual with separate arguments so its not like any of us needs to be consistent with any other, but still, its either one or the other: the Bush gvt went into war without elaborating a proper realistic post-war plan, or it had one all meticulously lined out, and its now falling apart ...

On the whole interim authority vs interim government thing, finally, this latter article notes

Quote:
The message that reached the White House from two recent meetings with potential Iraqi leaders, officials say, was that it would be foolish to start experimenting with democracy without making people feel secure enough to go back to work or school, and without giving them back at least the basic services they received during Saddam Hussein's brutal rule.


You can, in sympathising with the frustrated Iraqi opposition, reject this as part of a devious plan to rob the Iraqis of their self-determination; you can also refer to the UN and OSCE having followed pretty much the exact same logic in Bosnia and Kosovo. First the basic service back in place; only then elections. In fact, there's been several consecutive elections (every two years) in Bosnia and still Ashdown is there as well, with authority superceding the government's, and a right to impose new legal arrangements that he uses often. Critics of the UN say this has made Bosnia de facto a UN protectorate, and has fostered a spirit of dependence and resignation. Defenders of the UN will point out that the elections at first (and now, again) returned the 'parties of war' as victors, and that without international oversight the country could have well slipped into narchy or ethnic violence again. All the same dilemmas hold in Iraq.
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Scrat
 
  1  
Reply Mon 19 May, 2003 03:58 am
nimh - Thanks for the information. It sounds as though some changes are being made (not a surprise given what needs to be dealt with) and some people are not happy with the changes (this is always true in politics). Your citation gives a bit more balanced view of the story than what was originally quoted here.

In this case--given a choice of believing Bremmer's "there's no delay" and the Shiites' "indefinite delay"--I tend to assume the reality is somewhere in between. Things will not move forward as smoothly and quickly as Garner claimed they would (and why is he replaced with Bremmer?), but they will move forward. (That's just an opinion based on what little I know.)
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Steve 41oo
 
  1  
Reply Mon 19 May, 2003 07:13 am
The chaos in Iraq is all part of the plan.
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dyslexia
 
  1  
Reply Mon 19 May, 2003 07:31 am
BAGHDAD, Iraq - Thousands of Shiite Muslims marched peacefully through the capital Monday to protest the American occupation of Iraq (news - web sites) and reject what they feared would be a U.S.-installed puppet government.
Latest news:
ยท Shiites openly mark Mohammed's birthday in Iraq as lawlessness still reigns
Small groups of U.S. infantrymen, including snipers on nearby rooftops, watched the rally but did not intervene. Several dozen Shiite organizers armed with AK-47 assault rifles patrolled the area. They, too, were left alone by the Americans.
Up to 10,000 people gathered in front of a Sunni Muslim mosque in Baghdad's northern district of Azimiyah, then marched across a bridge on the Tigris River to the nearby Kadhamiya quarter, home to one of the holiest Shiite shrines in Iraq.
It appeared to be the largest protest against the U.S. occupation since the war ended.
"What we are calling for is an interim government that represents all segments of Iraqi society," said Ali Salman, an activist.
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Kara
 
  1  
Reply Mon 19 May, 2003 08:47 am
scrat, just an aside here. Gelisgesti is not a "her." Unless he's been fooling me for a couple of years. Smile
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Scrat
 
  1  
Reply Mon 19 May, 2003 08:52 am
Here's an interesting spin I hadn't considered. Does make a certain irrational sense...
Quote:
The Potemkin Bomb
Was Saddam Hussein unwittingly telling the truth when he claimed not to have weapons of mass destruction? That's the intriguing theory Jim Lacey, who covered the war as an embedded reporter for Time, puts forth in National Review Online:

Quote:
It is likely that if Saddam no longer had a WMD program he did not know it. Why else would he endure over a decade of crippling sanctions? If Saddam had ended his quest for WMDs, it would have been in his best interest to open the doors wide and let the world see. By playing as the model citizen he would have regained control of his oil wealth and quickly been able to make Iraq a regional superpower again.

Instead, his henchmen did everything possible to obfuscate the true WMD picture and to thwart any inspection teams. If they had nothing to hide, they sure worked hard at trying to hide it. What if they were not just hiding a possible WMD program from inspectors, but also hiding from Saddam the fact that no such program existed?

If this theory is true, it makes the war no less justified. U.N. resolutions obliged the regime not only to destroy all weapons of mass destruction but to document the destruction, something it never did.
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cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Mon 19 May, 2003 09:02 am
My post on May 17 makes more sense every day. How frightening - this bush presidency. c.i.
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