Mexican Elections 2024

For Mexico City, I’m with Salomón Chertorivski, without a doubt. He knows the problems of the city, cares about the people, was a very good Health secretary, and an excellent representative.
Brugada is a partisan populist, and Taboada does have links with the so-called “Real Estate cartel”.

For Congress, it’s very important that Morena and allies do not get a majority, their route is to have an all-powerful central government, no counterbalances and to brake the judiciary brand to make it dependent on the ruling party. It would be a setback for Mexican democracy.
The party that has pushed a democratic and progressive agenda -and the one who votes the least with Morena- is Movimiento Ciudadano.
Since our system is hybrid, and turns out to be mostly proportional, my votes for the Chamber of Deputies, Senators and Mexico City Congress will also be for MC.
The Front’s candidates are mostly the outgoing, stiff, political class.

For the borough mayor, it’s a winner-take-all race. We’ve been governed both by Morena and PAN and I don’t see the difference. Will wait and see.

For President, I’m certainly not voting for Sheinbaum, mainly not because of her, but because of the danger of a Maximato (the period 1928-34, in which former president Calles was the real boss, the Maximum Leader of the Revolution), now with López Obrador as the leader of “the fourth transformation”, as he loves to say (the former three being the independence, the reform-victory over the French and the revolution… the man has a big ego)
If Xóchitl has a chance, I’d vote for her; if not, I’ll go Máynez.

I’m sorry to hear about Jane.
I still direct the newspaper here in Mexico, but will retire in a few months, right after the election.
Yes, we had a good time in Albuquerque, but -alas- it was too short.

Yes, it was. I don't think there is a week that goes by where I don't think about Dyslexia.

I definitely empathize with that feeling. I feel like the US is a great example of a distant, all-powerful central government--that no longer feels the need to represent the will of the people.
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I really appreciate you taking the time to share the details of the parties and the candidates. Now, I can follow the news of the election with at least some understanding.

Really enjoying the thread.
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So, you're a newspaper man?? Can I access your paper online? I know we often don't like our irl lives to collide with a2k--and I have no interest in that at all, but I'd love to see your paper if you're comfortable with that.

(What a life I imagine that to be! Journalist or editor or business manager of a newspaper!)

Wooing the Catholic vote (and offsetting each other)

Yesterday there was a huge demostration against AMLO's proposed Constitutional changes that endanger democracy (availed by Sheinbaum).



The antidemocratic reforms will not pass. The government coalition does not hace the two thirds majority necessary to change the Constitution.

Bravo

How can you be so on point and open minded on this topic and so far off the reservation on US politics???

Campaigns are now in full gear.

Sheinbaum has stressed the social help programs issue (where people get pensions for age, scholarships for attending public school, and help money for several reasons), which has been López Obrador´s most popular policy.

Gálvez has stressed the violence security problems, which happen to be Lopez Obrador's most impopular policy, And also signed, with a drop of her blood, a commitment not to suspend any of the social help programs.

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After the start came a pollution contingency in Mexico City, and it was Máynez's turn to make a move: he blamed the refinery of nearby Tula, who works with heavy fuel oil, and demanded it be closed (the refinery system, operated by the state company Pemex, has losses of 10 billion US dollars a year), same with the polluting refinery in Cadereyta, near Monterrrey.
Gálvez said she would "modernize" Tula, but not close it, and added the refinery of Ciudad Madero to the list.
Sheinabum said nothing, but AMLO went on to say that the opposition candidates want Mexico to lose its "energy sovereignity" and give the riches of the nation to foreigners (with a false quotation of late president López Mateos, 1958-64).

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The bishops wanted the candidates to sign a commitment for peace; a document with basic elements of policy against organized crime.
Of course, all three did (no one wants to dismiss the bishops). But Sheinbaum signed "with reserves" because she didn't agree with the diagnosis of growing power of the cartels (a sign of the failure of AMLO's strategy). Máynez wants to legalize some drugs, starting with mariguana and fund more local police; Gálvez wants to built a "megajail" for cartel kingpins.

I really appreciate your updating of Mexican politics. It's something that is not carried as well as it used to be. Even here in Texas where it used to be front page.

Today was the first debate for the governorship of Jalisco. I didn’t watch it. Pundits say it was a tossup between Pablo Lemus (MC) and Laura Haro (Front), with Claudia Delgadillo (Morena) having a bad day. Polls say otherwise: Lemus, clear victor, followed by Delgadillo and Haro,
Perhaps it has something to do with preferences before the debate, as the latest poll has:

Lemus (MC) : 47%
Delgadillo (Morena): 39%
Haro (Front): 13%

Also on Sunday, the debate for Mexico City was pretty entertaining, Clara Brugada (Morena and allies) and Santiago Taboada (Front) embarked in an all-in mud fight. Chertorivski (MC) laid down his proposals and then took a bag of pop-corn to watch the others tear themselves apart.



My personal opinion is that the debate was Brugada's to lose, and she didn´t, even if she's not very articulate. Taboada was uncapable to dodge some of her attacks and his own were not that harmful. Chertorivski played "good kid" and only threw a couple jabs to each of the other contenders.

According to pundits, Chertorivski won. According to polls, it was Brugada.

The first presidential debate was held on April 7.
My opinion is that it was quite boring.
Everyone agrees that Xóchitl Gálvez lost in it a great opportunity, since it was about 3 of the weaknesses of AMLO's government: health, education and the fight against corruption.
Instead, Gálvez -who seemed unconfortable in a power dress- went after Sheinbaum personally, mostly talking about results in Mexico City (where it is not half as bad as the rest of the country). Sheinbaum defended herself with blatant lies and no emotions. Gálvez called her "The Ice Lady", which I don't know if its good or bad. Meanwhile, Máynez showed a fake smile all the time, and, while he probably made the best proposals, he wasn't convincing.

The consensus is that Xóchitl lost the debate and Sheinbaum didn't lose it.

Latest national poll, by GEA-ISA

Sheinbaum 53%
Gálvez 39%
Máynez 8%

By GEA-ISA, Sheinbaum lost 3 percentage points in the last month; 2 were gained by Máynez

The poll gives other insights:
The is NO bias by gender/sex.

Máynez is stronger with the young. Sheinbaum is lowest with the under 25.

Gálvez and Máynez are stronger with College graduates; Sheinbaum with people with High School or less.

Maynez and Sheinbaum do well among voters who consider themselves "liberal"; Gálvez, with "conservatives".
But it's not at all like the US: Gálvez gets 33% of the vote among those who define themselves as "radical left", and Sheinbaum gets 45% among those who define themselves as "radical right".

Race: Sheinbaum leads by 10 points among self declared "whites"; by 19 points among mestizos and is tied with Gálvez among indigenous people.

Religion: Máynez is the most competitive among non-affilliated

THE BIG DIVIDE
Sheinbaum gets 60% of the vote among people who earn less than 750 dollars a month (Gálvez 33%); and Gálvez gets 54% of the vote of those who earn more (Sheinbaum 37%).

We are now less than two weeks away from election day.

So, a few more or less random bits.

29 candidates, from all different parties and coalitions have been murdered.
All of them ran for local offices. Some for mayor, others for councils.

Most of the murders have been in zones controlled by organized crime. That’s the criminal”s way of voting,
Only one of them was from a city of more than 100 ooo inhabitants, the Morena candidate for Celaya. She was murdered hours after she presented her plan on security.

The states where this is more common are Chiapas (for the first time) and Michoacán (as usual)

Dayum! That sure is a poor way to run a country.

Keep your head down and don't make waves.

And I didn’t count the many candidates who have stepped down in local races in those zones, because of threats,

There are 9 governor races on June 2nd.
6 of those states are governed by Morena, 3 by the opposition.

Morena will repeat the win Tabasco and Chiapas, two poor southern states, by a landslide.
AMLO is very popular in his home state, Tabasco.
Morena will most probably retain the important state of Puebla, though not by a landslide.
The opposition front of PAN-PRI-PRD will very likely retain the states if Guanajuato (PAN’s greatest stronghold) and, seemingly, Yucatán.
Movimiento Ciudadano is on route to retain the important state of Jalisco, its stronghold.

Now, 3 other states are on the brink, according to most polls:

Mexico City seems like a toss-up between Brugada and Taboada, with the best candidate, Chertorivski, in a distant third place. The two big coalitions are putting all the marbles in the city fir the last days of the campaigns,

The big state of Veracruz seemed like a cinch for Morena, even after the lousy governorship of their man, Cuitláhuac García, because of the social and political composition of the state (poor, seldom near the conservatives), but Morena”s candidate, handpicked by president López Obrador, Rocío Nahle, is very bad. Several properties of her were uncovered, and several frauds revealed. Now candidate Yunes (of a not trustworthy political family) has a chance for PAN-PRI-PRD.

Finally, the small state of Morelos was disastrously run by exfootballer Cuauhtémoc Blanco, Morena split and the candidate not chosen by AMLO decided to run for the coalition of opposition parties. Two women contend. Morena is ahead in the polls but by a small margin.

So… the best case scenario for Morena is to retain their 6 governorships, but they may lose up to three of them (Mexico City being the crown jewel).

Thanks for this thread. You are the only one I know of who consistently keeps the focus on Mexico.

Election day is tomorrow.

All serious polls favor Sheinbaum, but the margin of victory differs a lot: from 4 to 14 percentage points.
Three pollsters favor Gálvez, the biggest difference is 3 points.
About 6 pollsters favor Sheinbaum by very big margins: some herded around a 20 point difference; one went over the fence and favors her by 36 points.