Re: Bush's poll approval rating state by state
parados wrote:JustWonders wrote:kelticwizard wrote:As stated previously, Zogby has gotten the popular vote margin correct in the last three presidential elections using a sample of only 1,000 voters for the entire nation. If these polls average 600 people per state, that is the equivalent of 30,000 people for the nation-much, much larger than any poll I have ever seen.
Suffice it to say that the sample size in these polls is more than adequate.
Just wondering. Is that the same Zogby that on 11/02/04 predicted that Kerry would win New Mexico, Florida, Ohio and Iowa and get a whopping 311 electorl votes?
LOL.
Zogby predicted a Kerry win on 11/2? Got any evidence to support that claim? Zogby is pretty good about noting the margins of error and would NOT have predicted a win based on a 1-2% lead in a poll for those states because such a lead would be in the margin of error. They would have called it a toss up.
Evidence? How about his bragging about his prediction on his website.
Quote:Zogby predicts Kerry victory
Utica pollster John Zogby said polling results indicate Sen. John Kerry will defeat President Bush in today's election. "I think we're looking at a Kerry victory," Zogby said Monday night. Zogby expects a very large turnout among young voters, with at least 55 percent voting in today's election. Among voters ages 18 to 29, polls indicate that 0 percent are undecided, Zogby said. He believes that group will give Kerry the edge. Kerry will get 64 percent of those votes followed by Bush with 35 percent and third-party candidate Ralph Nader with just 1 percent, Zogby said. (11/2/2004)
- The Observer Dispatch
Source
Of course, Zogby always wished and hoped Kerry would win. A few months before the election he predicted the election was Kerry's to lose.
And lose he did
