Bush's poll approval rating state by state

Based on this, I would say there was some bad fish in Ohio on election day. They have a disapproval rate as high as states like NY and CA, and yet Ohio went for Bush. Are a lot of people just regretting their vote or is mischief to blame? The already thick plot thickens...

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Re: Bush's poll approval rating state by state

BumbleBeeBoogie wrote:

Bush's poll approval rating state by state:

http://www.surveyusa.com/50StatePOTUS0805.htm

also day by day:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Bush_Job_Approval.htm

They only did 600 people in each state? Where were the people living that were polled? Were they in the cities or the country? Cities have a tendency to be Democrat and Rep's have a tendency to live in the country.

I wonder what the demographics were?

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Re: Bush's poll approval rating state by state

Baldimo wrote:

BumbleBeeBoogie wrote:
Bush's poll approval rating state by state:

http://www.surveyusa.com/50StatePOTUS0805.htm

also day by day:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Bush_Job_Approval.htm

They only did 600 people in each state? Where were the people living that were polled? Were they in the cities or the country? Cities have a tendency to be Democrat and Rep's have a tendency to live in the country.

I wonder what the demographics were?

As usual, you are looking for a way to make Bush's approval rating better. Can't be done no matter how many magic wands you wave over his pointy head.

BBB

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Re: Bush's poll approval rating state by state

BumbleBeeBoogie wrote:

Baldimo wrote:
BumbleBeeBoogie wrote:
Bush's poll approval rating state by state:

http://www.surveyusa.com/50StatePOTUS0805.htm

also day by day:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Bush_Job_Approval.htm

They only did 600 people in each state? Where were the people living that were polled? Were they in the cities or the country? Cities have a tendency to be Democrat and Rep's have a tendency to live in the country.

I wonder what the demographics were?

As usual, you are looking for a way to make Bush's approval rating better. Can't be done no matter how many magic wands you wave over his pointy head.

BBB

I could careless what his approval rating is, I'm happy with his over all performance. I do see things he could do better. I just always wonder how these ratings are done. It would lead others to see that he isn't doing so well and when asked they wouldn't know what he is doing so they would go with the polls.

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Baldino
Baldino wrote: "I could careless what his approval rating is, I'm happy with his over all performance. I do see things he could do better. I just always wonder how these ratings are done. It would lead others to see that he isn't doing so well and when asked they wouldn't know what he is doing so they would go with the polls."

What things do you think Bush should do better?

BBB

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My biggest concern is the border. He should also try and apply some muscle to China to even the trade deficit. Just to name 2.

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Baldimo:

Zogby has been getting the vote totals correct within one percentage point for three straight presidential elections, polling only 1,000 people for the whole country.

So 600 people per state, percentagtewise, should be more accurate. Although vote totals for states are more volatile than for the country as a whole.

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Cool

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Green Witch wrote:

Based on this, I would say there was some bad fish in Ohio on election day. They have a disapproval rate as high as states like NY and CA, and yet Ohio went for Bush. Are a lot of people just regretting their vote or is mischief to blame? The already thick plot thickens...

Ohio was a squeaker in the last election--and yes, there have been allegations that the Republican machine acted to interfer with the vote. I waited more than two hours to vote, and i was in a county that had worked hard to prepare for a high predicted voter turn-out (the turn-out was even higher than had been predicted). In many urban precincts, notably in Cleveland and Cincinatti, people waited longer than that, and the strictly anecdotal evidence was that this was no accident, the story being that it was hoped the working class would not be able to take such a long time off work, leaving stay-at-home moms, the elderly and the affluent the hammer in the vote. Can't vouch for any of that, that's just the buzz which circulated after the election.

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Green Witch:

Very good point about Ohio. While the poll shows Bush dipping below 50% in many states which voted for him, in most of those Red States he is shown as being only slightly below 50% today.

Not so Ohio. Allegedly slightly for Bush in 2004, it now has Bush approval ratings like the bluest of the Blue States. Isnt it odd that this inconsistency shows up in the one state which gave the election to Bush in 2004?

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Columbus also had very long lines and rain, too.

I personally have met a lot of people like Phoenix, who just couldn't bring themselves to vote for Kerry but were suspicious of Bush, and are having their suspicions confirmed more and more.

Remember also that people who are polled may not have voted at all. As in, they may not have liked Kerry OR Bush, which is consistent with not liking Bush now.

On top of all of that, we have a big scandal going on with our Republican governor, which could be souring people on Republicans in general/ make them more willing to look critically at the Bush presidency and not like what they see.

I'm not at all discounting the possibility of fraud, but pointing out various ways that the poll numbers can make sense without fraud being part of the picture.

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latest poll updates
see the latest poll updates.

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Re: Bush's poll approval rating state by state

BumbleBeeBoogie wrote:

Bush's poll approval rating state by state:

http://www.surveyusa.com/50StatePOTUS0805.htm

also day by day:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Bush_Job_Approval.htm

See the latest poll updates.

BBB

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Sozobe wrote:

I personally have met a lot of people like Phoenix, who just couldn't bring themselves to vote for Kerry but were suspicious of Bush, and are having their suspicions confirmed more and more.

I am really disenchanted with Bush. I am also pissed off that the Democrats did not have anyone better to offer than Kerry. I think that the Bush presidency has had far reaching ramifications that will go well beyond the end of the eight years. And I don't like it!

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Re: Bush's poll approval rating state by state

BumbleBeeBoogie wrote:

As usual, you are looking for a way to make Bush's approval rating better. Can't be done no matter how many magic wands you wave over his pointy head.

BBB

Actually, no. Though I disagree on Baldimo on many issues, I would have to agree with him here, even if it does mean making Bush's approval rating look better.

You see, 600 people is not statistically valid. The larger the sample size, the better. Also, sampling has to be completely at random, ensuring a good mix of people from the countryside and the cities. If not, the study is statistically invalid.

The questions he asks are very valid and you should ask them too whenever you see any poll or statistically based analysis, whether it be showing a result that favours Democrats or Republicans.

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Curious how it can be said that 600 people polled aren't enough to be statistically valid. This statement is based on what, I wonder?

In any case, polls make for good discussion, but I'd be curious to see if this dissatisfaction translates into changes in Congress in '06...

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Re: Bush's poll approval rating state by state

Wolf_ODonnell wrote:

You see, 600 people is not statistically valid. The larger the sample size, the better.

As stated previously, Zogby has gotten the popular vote margin correct in the last three presidential elections using a sample of only 1,000 voters for the entire nation. If these polls average 600 people per state, that is the equivalent of 30,000 people for the nation-much, much larger than any poll I have ever seen.

Suffice it to say that the sample size in these polls is more than adequate.

Wolf_ODonnell wrote:

Also, sampling has to be completely at random, ensuring a good mix of people from the countryside and the cities. If not, the study is statistically invalid.

These are all from a professional polling organizations which can be counted on to take these things into account. Granted, some polls seem to be able to nail it better than others, but in that case, the inaccuracy is as likely to favor Bush as go against him. The trend among almost all states is against Bush. Baldimo is just trying to throw up some smoke here.

States, being smaller than the nation, can swing one way or the other quite quickly. But here, we see almost all the states swinging against Bush-the trend is clear.

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As far as the question of bias in the polling orgainization

In Alabama Survey USA showed Bush would beat Kerry by 18 points-it turned out he beat him by 26 points. In Rhode Island, however, Survery USA showed Kerry beating Bush by only 13 points-he ended up beating him by 20. Add up all the margins of error in all 50 states, and SurveyUSA averaged a 1% lean toward Kerry. That is not much.

In half the 30 states polled, SurveyUSA got it within 2 points.

Survey USA also showed Republican Senate candidates finishing an average of 1.5% better than they did. So the survey is pretty balanced.
Source.

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Thanks Keltic. Appreciated.

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Bush's poll approval rating state by state

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