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Election Day 2020

 
 
Reply Tue 3 Nov, 2020 07:38 am
Well, the day is finally here after months of campaigning. Biden got the first shot off, winning Dixville Notch, NH 5-0, the first sweep there since Nixon swept Kennedy. (Of course that didn't work out well for Nixon.) Trump struck back quickly winning Millsfield 16-5, the exact margin he won with in 2016.
 
engineer
 
  -1  
Reply Tue 3 Nov, 2020 08:43 am
Early voting totals 47% of all registered voters. I think the participation in the 2016 election was 58% all in.

https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/election-results-and-news-11-03-20/
Quote:
More than 100 million Americans voted nationwide before the polls opened on Election Day, according to a survey of election officials by CNN, Edison Research, and Catalist.

These votes represent more than 47% of registered voters nationwide. Twenty-one states and Washington, DC, have seen more than half of their registered voters cast ballots already.

Pre-Election Day voting has skyrocketed nationwide during the ongoing coronavirus pandemic. At least six states, including Texas, Hawaii, Nevada, Washington, Arizona and Montana have surpassed their total turnout from the 2016 general election in recent days.
0 Replies
 
jespah
 
  -2  
Reply Tue 3 Nov, 2020 08:45 am
@engineer,
30 minutes soup to nuts here. We got there at 705 (polls opened at 7 AM) and the line was already wrapped around the building. But it went fast, as some of that line was social distancing. I saw 100% mask use and there was hand sanitizer pretty much everywhere (they were also cleaning the pens between usage).

4 ballot initiatives -
1) Right to repair law, which would give indie gas stations the right to get maintenance data from car computers
2) Ranked choice voting
3) Nonbinding, IIRC it had to do with climate change?
4) Also nonbinding, it was a request to put all of the local legislative work online

In addition to President, we had races for Senate (Ed Markey's seat), Congress (our rep is Ayanna Pressley), and some local races like Town Clerk.

Friendly, mostly quiet crowd (the caffeine hadn't kicked in yet, I bet), and the poll workers were way younger than we'd ever seen before. Crowd also skewed younger. Cops manned the place where you put your ballot in for scanning, but they always do.

That was the only security presence I saw.
engineer
 
  0  
Reply Tue 3 Nov, 2020 08:53 am
The final take from 538.com

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/
Quote:
Our 2020 forecasts — presidential, Senate, House — are all now officially frozen, meaning we won’t be ingesting any new polls or updating the odds in any race. At the end of a loooooong campaign, here’s where we stand: Joe Biden is favored to beat President Trump (though Trump still has a 1-in-10 chance); Democrats have a 3-in-4 shot at taking back the Senate; and the House will most likely remain under Democratic control (Democrats might even expand their majority by a few seats). The big picture is clear: The overall electoral environment favors Democrats, which is one reason they have decent odds of controlling the presidency, Senate and House (a 72 percent chance, according to our forecast). Of course, there’s always the chance of a polling error, which tends to be correlated from state to state when it happens. Trump needs a bigger-than-normal error in his favor, but the real possibility that polls are underestimating Trump’s support is why he still has a path to win reelection. A 10 percent chance of winning is not a zero percent chance. In fact, that is roughly the same odds that it’s raining in downtown Los Angeles. And it does rain there. (Downtown L.A. has about 36 rainy days per year, or about a 1-in-10 shot of a rainy day.)
0 Replies
 
engineer
 
  -1  
Reply Tue 3 Nov, 2020 08:58 am
@jespah,
I have a meeting shortly but then I'm going to walk to the local polling place. It is cold (southern cold, 40's) and clear here, nice day for voting.
jespah
 
  -1  
Reply Tue 3 Nov, 2020 03:45 pm
@engineer,
Happy voting!
engineer
 
  0  
Reply Tue 3 Nov, 2020 05:36 pm
@jespah,
There was absolutely no line when I walked by. NC has great early voting procedures, I think a lot of people voted that way. The news said turnout was slow and consistent.
0 Replies
 
engineer
 
  -1  
Reply Tue 3 Nov, 2020 05:38 pm
Polls are closed in R strongholds of Indiana and Kentucky.
0 Replies
 
McGentrix
 
  4  
Reply Tue 3 Nov, 2020 05:45 pm
Stood in a short line. 5 districts in our ward that all vote at same location.

Everyone was distanced and wearing masks. There were more men manning the polling stations this year than years past. I thought that was odd. Cast my ballot and went to dinner.
roger
 
  1  
Reply Tue 3 Nov, 2020 08:30 pm
@McGentrix,
I voted last week, but drove past the polling place at a similar time. Parking lot seemed somewhat more crowded today, but not overflowing.
0 Replies
 
Wilso
 
  6  
Reply Tue 3 Nov, 2020 10:15 pm
I'm not an expert on the US electoral system, but I can't see at the moment how Biden can possibly win.
maporsche
 
  -1  
Reply Wed 4 Nov, 2020 06:09 am
@Wilso,
Wilso wrote:

I'm not an expert on the US electoral system, but I can't see at the moment how Biden can possibly win.


As you said, you’re are not an expert.

At this point there are several paths to victory and he appears more likely to win than Trump, though only slightly.
engineer
 
  -1  
Reply Wed 4 Nov, 2020 06:48 am
@maporsche,
I think Georgia and North Carolina are going Trump. Both are reliable R states, Georgia more than NC but still. Still lots of votes to count in Michigan and Wisconsin and both are pretty close. It is telling that Ohio which shares their demographic went very Trump. Pennsylvania has a long way to go to count the vote, but it is very much like Michigan and Wisconsin so it's going to be close.
engineer
 
  -1  
Reply Wed 4 Nov, 2020 07:48 am
@engineer,
My key takeaways.
- There was no repudiation of Trump or his governing philosophy, no blue wave. If anything there was a red pushback.
- States pretty much fell into their historical ranges, there was no giant alignment shift.
- Incumbent senators are pretty much safe bets. Susan Collins did not lose in Maine, Tom Tillis hasn't been called yet but is ahead in North Carolina (even with the Democratic governor winning), Lindsey Graham won big in SC.
- The republicans gained back some house districts they lost in 2018 where moderate Democrats won in red districts.
0 Replies
 
revelette3
 
  -2  
Reply Wed 4 Nov, 2020 09:41 am
There are a lot of mail-in ballots yet to counted and other ways people voted other than on election day. So far this morning, any traction on that point has gone into Biden's lead. It is not as big as some have thought, but I predict Biden wins by the end of the week. However, depending how long the republican court cases drag out and some stupid lawsuit makes to the Supreme with their newest confirmed justice taking her place on the court, the election could go to Trump unless there are enough true conservative state loving justices who will vote to let the States rule. We'll see .I am pretty sure Roberts is that way, not sure of the rest.

I wish more leftist (progressives, democratic or left leaning independents) would make the choice of judges the main issue when it comes to voting like the republicans do.
engineer
 
  -1  
Reply Wed 4 Nov, 2020 09:44 am
@revelette3,
Yes, it really comes down to where the undercount is at this point. I see Michigan has a Biden lead as more votes come in this morning. If it's the Detroit area that is now reporting, that's going to continue Biden. If there are issues in some rural areas, that's going to swing the other way.
0 Replies
 
engineer
 
  -1  
Reply Wed 4 Nov, 2020 09:46 am
Let's say Trump wins NC and GA, Biden wins NV. It then comes down to who wins 2 of 3 between MI, WI and PA. Right now Biden has the slimmest leads in MI and WI and in PA, a lot of the vote has not been counted but Trump has a lead.
engineer
 
  -1  
Reply Wed 4 Nov, 2020 09:51 am
Quote:
A Republican candidate for North Dakota’s state legislature won his election, despite dying from COVID-19 nearly a month earlier.

David Andahl died on Oct. 5 at age 55 due to complications from COVID-19. His mother, Pat Andahl, had told the Bismarck Tribune that her son was hospitalized with the virus and died just four days after getting sick. She told the outlet she had “no idea” how he contracted COVID-19, saying he was “very careful.”

Andahl won one of the two seats available in North Dakota’s eighth district, alongside Dave Nehring. They had already won a competitive primary race in June, edging out Rep. Jeff Delzer, a longtime Republican member of North Dakota’s House of Representatives who is the chairman of the House Appropriations Committee.
0 Replies
 
revelette3
 
  -2  
Reply Wed 4 Nov, 2020 10:28 am
@engineer,
I am no good with math or specifics but I just read some encouraging news on Vox. (it is partisan, but you can check the math or whatever guys like you Silver use to figure these out. Trump's electoral votes hasn't increased this morning. and the tallies being counted today are favoring Biden. I am pretty confident this time around of a Biden/Harris win for the Presidential election today.

Quote:



It’s pretty simple: Biden has already taken the lead in Michigan and Wisconsin, and he is expected to take the lead in Pennsylvania as well, as more mail ballots are counted. Those three states would be enough for Biden to top the 270 electoral votes needed to win, even if he loses every other state that has not yet been called.

Apart from the trio of key swing states, there are four other important states that have not yet been called — Georgia and North Carolina in the Southeast, and Nevada and Arizona in the West. Some combination of those states could become a backup plan of sorts for Biden, if he doesn’t end up winning Pennsylvania.

As far as Trump’s path to victory, Pennsylvania is looking increasingly crucial. Unless Michigan or Wisconsin swings back toward the president, Trump really has no other option than to win the state.

Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania would be enough for Biden
Trump won the presidential election in 2016 because he managed to win the traditionally Democratic states of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, each by less than 1 percentage point.

And he will lose this presidential election if he doesn’t manage to win at least one of those states again — the most important of which, due to its large number of electoral votes, is Pennsylvania.

It’s been known for weeks, though, that all three of these states would be rather slow to count an unprecedented number of mail ballots due to the Covid-19 pandemic — and that those ballots will favor Biden, since Democrats were more likely to vote by mail than in-person on Election Day.

As of Wednesday morning, Wisconsin appears to be the furthest along in its vote count — the New York Times estimates that 97 percent of the vote total has been counted. Biden currently leads by a little less than 1 percentage point, but the remaining ballots are expected to expand that lead.

Next is Michigan, with the Times estimating that 90 percent of the vote is counted there. Biden currently leads by a mere 0.2 percentage points, but there are many votes yet to be counted in Democratic strongholds.

Finally, there is Pennsylvania, which has been the slowest to count votes among the three states — it’s only about 76 percent done, per the Times. Trump has not yet lost his lead, due to his strength in in-person Election Day voting, in the state. But the Times’ Nate Cohn writes that “the remaining vote in Pennsylvania appears to be overwhelmingly for Biden.” That includes both the remaining mail ballots, and some in-person ballots in Philadelphia.

These states haven’t yet been called for a reason — they’re close. But Biden currently looks like he has a good shot of winning all three, which would give him the presidency.

Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona, and Nevada also haven’t yet been called
If Biden holds on to Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, he technically doesn’t need any more uncalled states. But winning elsewhere, rather than depending on one close state, could help limit Trump’s prospects of trying to flip the outcome in a knock-down, drag-out legal brawl.

If Biden ends up losing Pennsylvania (or Michigan or Wisconsin), he’ll have to make up that ground elsewhere.

One possible path to 270 electoral votes for Biden without Pennsylvania is through winning both Arizona and Nevada. Biden currently leads in the two states, but by a very small margin in Nevada. (Nevada’s secretary of state says their next batch of results won’t be released until Thursday morning.) Meanwhile, some networks have already called Arizona for Biden, but Vox’s partner Decision Desk is being more cautious here. It’s fair to say though that Biden seems favored in Arizona at this point, which is bad news for Trump.

Beyond that, there are two more key uncalled swing states in the Southeast — Georgia and North Carolina. Trump is currently leading in both states by about 2 percentage points, but those margins will shift as more votes are counted. In Georgia, in particular, there are many votes yet to be counted in the Atlanta area, which is expected to heavily favor Biden. Again, Biden may not need either of these states — but Trump likely can’t afford to lose either one.

Overall, a range of outcomes is plausible — from an Electoral College win of 300+ electoral votes for Biden, to a much closer win for Biden, to a win for Trump. But given what we think we know about the remaining votes to be counted in each state, Biden’s chances look better than Trump’s at this point.



MSN/VOX
engineer
 
  -1  
Reply Wed 4 Nov, 2020 02:28 pm
@revelette3,
I'm not comfortable enough to say "confident" just yet. WI and AZ have been called for Biden. They should go ahead and call NC and GA for Trump as his lead is substantial there. That leaves MI, NV and PA. Biden is looking good in MI. The lead for Trump is shrinking but is still substantial in PA. Then is comes down to NV and NV has a lot of vote counting still to do. AZ is more red than Nevada and Biden won there, but you have to count the votes.
 

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