Dispatches from the COVID-19 Financial Front

The human tragedy and cost of COVID-19 are of course awful and are only going to get worse. I'm not trying to minimize that with this discussion.

Rather, I don't want to ignore another big, fat elephant in the room, the one with the dollar sign painted on his/her back.

There is a large financial cost here, and there will be more, in no real order:

1. Lost incomes from deceased or permanently disabled workers due to COVID-19
   
2. Layoffs, furloughs, and reduced pay
   
3. Price gouging
   
4. Price increases not due to gouging but due to shortages from the already erratic supply chain
   
5. Lost revenues to leaseholders and landlords, car dealers and other creditors, due to people's inability to pay their bills
   
6. Credit scores falling
   
7. Businesses shutting their doors for good (if you think every restaurant will come back whole after this, you've got another think coming)
   
8. Affected housing market (people can't visit in person, virtual tours aren't a great substitute, folks saving $ and not looking to buy, etc.)
   
9. 16 million new unemployment claims in the last 3 weeks, with an estimate of about 10% of jobs vaporizing (see: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf)

That's probably enough, eh?

Currently, the CARES Act (that's the relief package) stands at $2 trillion. Something like $364 billion of that is supposed to go to small business loans. Most of those loans will be forgiven if businesses don't lay off more than 25% of their workforce. But there are also businesses which by definition aren't eligible, like casinos, the cannabis industry (probably even medical), etc. Even with the limitations on it, this program is already in trouble and running out of money (see: https://www.forbes.com/sites/sarahhansen/2020/04/10/most-small-businesses-applied-to-the-paycheck-protection-program-and-most-are-still-waiting-for-the-money/#5c537cef54fb). Currently, the feds are looking to add another $250 billion to this program, but that, too, will likely not be enough.

Around $425 billion of the CARES Act is going to state governments. There's more in the text of the bill (see below for the URL).

Then there's the $ for American individuals. $1,200 per person who makes less than $100,000 per year ($150,000 if filing jointly) and $500 per minor dependent. Undocumented persons are not eligible for the relief checks. Oh, and currently only $425 billion is set aside for this purpose (see: https://www.congress.gov/116/bills/hr748/BILLS-116hr748enr.pdf)

Current US population is around 329.5 million (see: https://www.census.gov/popclock/). Current population of undocumented immigrants is about 10 million (see: https://www.brookings.edu/policy2020/votervital/how-many-undocumented-immigrants-are-in-the-united-states-and-who-are-they/)

A little under 30% of all Americans make $100,000 per year (see: https://www.statista.com/statistics/203183/percentage-distribution-of-household-income-in-the-us/). And about 76% of the population is over 18 (see: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_United_States).

Let's pull the 10 million undocumented folks and 98.850 million folks making over $100,000 per year right off the top. That leaves us with 220.65 million people eligible for a stimulus check. 76% of them are 167.694 million. $1200 apiece for them is $201.2328 billion. The other 24% (children) is 52.956 billion. $500 each for them is $26.478 billion.

Add those together, and the payout is expected to be around $227.7108 billion. This doesn't account for people who the feds can't find for whatever reason. But be that as it may, the $425 billion set aside for payouts to individuals will be a one-time, possibly a two-time thing and that's it.

I realize it's inevitable that this discussion will become political. Please try to be civil to your fellow human beings. But if you want to claim this is all a hoax or due to 5G or any other such nonsense, go peddle your bullshit elsewhere and don't pollute my thread with it.

Thank you for your anticipated cooperation.