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US AND THEM: US, UN & Iraq, version 8.0

 
 
hamburger
 
  1  
Reply Wed 24 Aug, 2005 04:43 pm
ican wrote : " The next most important criterion is which of these three strategies will most probably lead to the fewest worldwide civilian deaths over the next 7 or more years."

perhaps "jimmy, the greek (snyder)" might be asked what odds are - should be interesting to get an "expert" opinion. hbg
0 Replies
 
old europe
 
  1  
Reply Wed 24 Aug, 2005 05:14 pm
ican711nm wrote:
[...] prisoners are to be incinerated at a rate that [...]


I think I've read that somewhere before... Must have been somewhere in the Wannsee Conference documents...
0 Replies
 
hamburger
 
  1  
Reply Wed 24 Aug, 2005 05:22 pm
old europe : i'm glad it was you, not me, who wrote that ...
i was close to it ... but decided to close down the computer and look at my stamp-collection ! hbg
0 Replies
 
old europe
 
  1  
Reply Wed 24 Aug, 2005 05:31 pm
hamburger, given the above post I'm kind of glad that ican is living in Texas (assuming that's true) in 2005 and posting on an internet board.
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Wed 24 Aug, 2005 06:35 pm
old europe & hamburger

I infer you do not like and/or are offended by the Third strategy.

Do you like either of the other two strategies. If so why?

Do you recommend an alternate strategy? If so why?

I recall that the nazi malignancy gased millions of european civilians and then burned their remains.

I think the nazi malignancy deserved to be incinerated for perpetrating that horror. You will recall that thousands were by means of thousands of incendiary bombs dropped from allied aircraft!

THE PRIMARY PROBLEM IS A PSYCHOLOGICAL PROBLEM

Some people think perpetrators, their victims, and society are all responsible for the crimes perpetrators commit.

While other people think only perpetrators are responsible for the crimes they commit.

The psychological problem is that some think perpetrators are caused to be criminals by psychological forces not under control of the perpetrators’ own free wills.

While others think perpetrators are caused to be criminals by psychological forces under control of the perpetrators’ own free will.

Some think holding only perpetrators responsible for their crimes corrupts collective responsibility, encourages resentment, and promotes crime.

While others think failure to hold only perpetrators responsible for their crimes corrupts individual responsibility, encourages cowardice, and promotes crime.

I think Ayn Rand was right! We are in the midst of a conflict between collectivists and individualists. If the collectivists win, we shall all – those that survive -- be uniformly miserable, and be uniformly held responsible for all that any of us perpetrate. If the individualists win, almost all of us except collectivists and perpetrators will be happier.
0 Replies
 
hamburger
 
  1  
Reply Wed 24 Aug, 2005 06:45 pm
old europe : i wonder if ican would personally want to incinerate the "malignancy prisoners" or will someone else have to do it for him ?
from what i understand even "malignancy prisoners" are members of the humen race - whether ican likes it or not.
this is just getting a little too weird for me.
signing off. hbg
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Wed 24 Aug, 2005 07:41 pm
hamburger wrote:
old europe : i wonder if ican would personally want to incinerate the "malignancy prisoners" or will someone else have to do it for him ?


If no one better were availble, willing and able, I'd volunteer!

[ican] Posted: Tue Aug 23, 2005 5:56 pm Post: 1530725 -
Quote:

dyslexia wrote:
so ican, since we are currently losing the war against the malignancy, how long/how many more deaths do you think we should endure?

I truly wish that your question were relevant.

I do not like my solution in any absolute sense. In fact, I detest it. I nonetheless recommend it, because after much thinking on the subject, I truly think it is the least worst solution available to us. By least worst solution I mean I think it probably the solution whose consequences are the least murdered Iraqi civilians -- and ultimately the least murdered civilians worldwide.

I would be delighted if you or anyone else came up with a better way to stop, or at least curtail, malignancy and neutralize its relentless worldwide effort to institutionalize its doctrine of Die And Make Die.

You asked:
Quote:
[H]ow long/how many more deaths do you think we should endure?

Unfortunately, that isn't our choice; that isn't under our control; we cannot control the time or the number of deaths to any specific time/number we can endure. I wish we could! The best we can do is select that way that we think can most likely succeed in limiting the time/number of deaths we have to endure to rid ourselves of malignancy or neutralize malignancy.

I suppose we also could try praying for some sort of "spontaneous remission."It cannot hurt. Possibly it will help. But in the meantime, let's do what we think will actually work and not what we merely prefer to work.


hamburger wrote:
from what i understand even "malignancy prisoners" are members of the humen race - whether ican likes it or not.
this is just getting a little too weird for me.
signing off. hbg


Yes, the malignancy are members of the human race.

Yes, their murder victims past, present and future are members of the human race.

I'm definitely biased. I favor would be murder victims over would be murderers.

Forced to choose, I recommend doing whatever is necessary and sufficient to reduce the number of malignancy's murder victims. I think that means choosing a strategy that works and not merely one that is emotionally and psychologically acceptable.

What strategy do you recommend?
0 Replies
 
Kara
 
  1  
Reply Wed 24 Aug, 2005 09:16 pm
I'm off to look at my stamp collection.
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cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Wed 24 Aug, 2005 09:30 pm
I'm off to look at my picture collection. Wink
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McTag
 
  1  
Reply Wed 24 Aug, 2005 11:36 pm
PDiddie was posting on another thread:

BATTLE HYMN OF THE REPUBLICANS


Mine eyes have seen the bungling of that stumbling moron Bush;
he has blathered all the drivel that the neo-cons can push;
he has lost sight of all reason 'cause his head is up his tush;
The Doofus marches on.

I have heard him butcher syntax like a kindergarten fool;
There is warranted suspicion that he never went to school;
Should we fault him for the policies - or is he just their tool?
The lies keep piling on.

Glory! Glory! How he'll Screw Ya'!
Glory! Glory! How he'll Screw Ya'!
Glory! Glory! How he'll Screw Ya'!
His wreckage will live on.

I have seen him cut the taxes of the billionaires' lone heir;
As he spends another zillion on an aircraft carrier;
Let the smokestacks keep polluting - do we really need clean air?
The surplus is now gone.

Glory! Glory! How he'll Screw Ya'!
Glory! Glory! How he'll Screw Ya'!
Glory! Glory! How he'll Screw Ya'!
Your safety net is gone!

Now he's got a mighty hankerin' to bomb a prostrate state;
Though the whole world knows it's crazy - and the U.N. says to wait;
When he doesn't have the evidence, "We must prevaricate."
Diplomacy is done!

Oh, a trumped-up war is excellent; we have no moral bounds;
Should the reasons be disputed, we'll just make up other grounds;
Enraging several billions - to his brainlessness redounds;
The Doofus marches on!

Glory! Glory! How he'll Screw Ya'!
Glory! Glory! How he'll Screw Ya'!
Glory! Glory! How he'll Screw Ya'!
THIS...DOO...FUS...MAR...CHES...ON
0 Replies
 
Gelisgesti
 
  1  
Reply Thu 25 Aug, 2005 05:19 am
http://photos27.flickr.com/36599439_9740a9994b.jpg
0 Replies
 
Gelisgesti
 
  1  
Reply Thu 25 Aug, 2005 05:33 am
Quote:
A Constitution That Means Nothing To Ordinary Iraqis
by Robert Fisk

August 15, 2005
The Independent
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EMail Article to a Friend

Behind ramparts of concrete and barbed wire, the framers of Iraq's new constitution wrestled yesterday to prevent - or bring about - the federalisation of Iraq while their compatriots in the hot and fetid streets outside showed no interest in their efforts.

Today is supposed to be "C" day, according to President Bush and all the others who illegally invaded this country in 2003. However, in " real" Baghdad - where the President and Prime Minister and the constitutional committee never set foot - they ask you about security, about electricity, about water, about when the occupation will end, when the murders will end, when the rapes will end.

They talk, quite easily, about the "failed" Jaafari government, so blithely elected by Shias and Kurds last January. "Failed" because it cannot protect its own people. "Failed" because it cannot rebuild its own capital city - visible to it between the Crusader-like machine-gun slits in the compound walls - and because it cannot understand, let alone meet, the demands of the "street".

In the Alice-in-Wonderland Iraq of Messrs Bush and Blair - inhabited, too, by the elected government of Iraq and its constitutional drafters and quite a few Western journalists - there are no such problems to cope with. The air-conditioners hiss away - there are generators to provide 24-hour power - and almost all senior officials have palatial homes in the heavily protected "Green Zone" which was once Saddam Hussein's Republican Palace compound. No power cuts for them, no petrol queues, no kidnaps and murders.

As an Iraqi academic just returned from Paris and Brussels told me yesterday: "Europeans understand politics through the Green Zone level. They have no idea that the rest of Iraq - save for Kurdistan - is a place of anarchy and death. One asked me: 'Do you think federalism is really a danger to the Sunni?' I answered him: 'Do you think the fear of constant death is not a danger to Sunnis, Shia and Kurds?' His eyes glazed over. It was not what he wanted to talk about. But it is what we talk about."

Those few Iraqis who bother to read the government press in Baghdad - their low circulation mirrors the same phenomenon of disbelief that existed under Saddam's regime - are told every nuance of the constitutional debate. The name of the state has been agreed (The Iraqi Republic), the distribution of financial resources according to demographic areas rather than provinces (bad news for the Kurds), and that Islam should be "one" of the sources of legislation (bad news for those who want an Islamic republic).

There is a "constitutional committee" and a "constitutional commission" (comprising 55 elected parliamentary deputies) with 15 unelected Sunnis (because the Sunni population largely boycotted last January's election), each committee divided into five sub-committees, each one studying one chapter in the constitution. The actual writers of this massive document - they allegedly include at least two professors - remain anonymous for "security reasons". And all live in the heavily guarded Green Zone, safe - more or less - from the insurgents and, more importantly, safer from ordinary Iraqis who have to endure the violence of the American occupation, the oppression of the insurgents and the daily threat of mass, organised crime.

Everyone knows the real issue behind the constitution: will it allow Iraq's three principle communities - the Shias, the Sunnis and the Kurds - to form their own federal states? And if so, will this mean the break up of Iraq? The Sunnis, the only one of the three whose homes do not sit on oil reserves, are naturally against such a division which would, incidentally, allow the Americans and the other Western nations, who still claim to have liberated Iraq for "democracy", to reach oil deals with two weakened entities rather than a potentially united Iraqi nation.

Add to all this Kurdistan's demand that the future demography of Kirkuk - the Arab population injected by Saddam, the Kurdish population of the city exiled by Saddam and its minority Turkomans - be settled before the constitution is written, and you get a good idea why even the Americans are beginning to lose patience. The Kurds want oil-rich Kirkuk to be the capital of Kurdistan - a state which already exists although no Iraqi seems to be prepared to admit this - and thus further cut away at the frontier between " Arab" Iraq and "Kurdish" Iraq.

The problem is that all these issues are played out not in Iraq but in the Alice-in-Wonderland world already described. This is a unique place in which Saddam's trial is always being predicted to start in two months' time - on at least four occasions this has happened - in which Iraqi reconstruction is always about to restart and in which insurgent strength is always weakening. In fact, Iraqi guerrillas are now striking at the Americans 70 times a day and so fearful are senior American officers of an increase in attacks that this has become their principle reason for trying to prevent the release of 87 further photographs and videotapes of the Abu Ghraib prison torture and abuses.

In Real Iraq, it makes no difference. For the "street", Saddam is history, there is no reconstruction and the filth of Abu Ghraib causes no great surprise - because most Iraqis knew all about it months before the West opened its horrified eyes to the pictures.

As for the constitution, I asked an old Iraqi friend what he thought yesterday. "Sure, it's important," he said. "But my family lives in fear of kidnapping, I'm too afraid to tell my father I work for journalists, and we only have one hour in six of electricity and we can't even keep our food from going bad in the fridge. Federalism? You can't eat federalism and you can't use it to fuel your car and it doesn't make my fridge work."
0 Replies
 
revel
 
  1  
Reply Thu 25 Aug, 2005 07:13 am
Quote:
The problem is that all these issues are played out not in Iraq but in the Alice-in-Wonderland world already described. This is a unique place in which Saddam's trial is always being predicted to start in two months' time - on at least four occasions this has happened - in which Iraqi reconstruction is always about to restart and in which insurgent strength is always weakening


I think most people have finally caught on to Bush's "around the corner" rhetoric, surely?

Quote:
Support for the war has dropped in recent polls, and criticism of President Bush's handling of the conflict has grown. The latest CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll, taken Aug. 5-7, found that 54 percent of those surveyed thought the 2003 invasion of Iraq was a mistake.


Another Vietnam

I think that if we had succeeded in restoring Iraq and making lives Iraqi lives better than before the invasion and if our troops were able to come home in victory the support for Iraq would have increased than it was before the invasion regardless of the absence of WMD and the strong arming stretching of truth tactics of the administration. It is the utter failure of Iraq that has eroded support for this hopeless misadventure; and rightly so.
0 Replies
 
McGentrix
 
  1  
Reply Thu 25 Aug, 2005 07:18 am
Iraq is no Vietnam

IRAQ WAR skeptics and critics have been invoking Vietnam almost from the day the fighting began. So Senator Chuck Hagel of Nebraska was hardly breaking new ground when he joined the invokers on Sunday. ''We are locked into a bogged-down problem," he said on ABC's ''The Week," ''not . . . dissimilar to where we were in Vietnam."

Run-of-the-mill stuff on the Democratic left, but since Hagel is a Republican, his words instantly leaped to the top of the news cycle. ''GOP Senator Says Iraq Looking Like Vietnam," was the headline on AP's widely reprinted story.

Yet in so many ways, Iraq doesn't look like Vietnam at all. Vietnam was never the central battleground of the Cold War, while Iraq has become the focal point of the war on terrorism. Americans had no reason to feel that their own security was at risk in Vietnam, whereas 9/11 made it clear that the enemy we face today poses a lethal threat here at home as well. The jihadis in Iraq don't have the backing of superpowers; North Vietnam and the Viet Cong were armed to the teeth by China and the Soviet Union. In South Vietnam, the United States was allied to an unpopular and incompetent regime; in Iraq, the United States toppled a brutal tyranny and is trying to nurture a democracy in its place.

But of all the ways in which the Iraq war is not like Vietnam, perhaps the most telling is the attitude of the troops.

''When I was in Vietnam," retired Army Colonel Jack Jacobs, a 1969 Medal of Honor recipient who had just returned from a fact-finding trip to the Sunni Triangle, told NBC News in May, ''if you asked anybody what he wanted more than anything else in the world, he'd say: to go home. We asked . . . hundreds of soldiers, low-ranking soldiers, in both Afghanistan and Iraq . . . the same question. And the response, to a man and a woman, was, 'To kill bad guys.' . . . The morale is just over the top -- just really, really enthused about what they're doing. And I think the reason is they perceive that they're making progress. Success will do a lot to morale."

Indeed it will, as the ''Today" show's Matt Lauer discovered when he visited Baghdad last week. He tried valiantly to coax some Vietnam-style disillusionment out of the soldiers he met, but as NBC's transcript makes clear, the troops weren't having any of that:

Lauer: We've heard so much about the insurgent attacks, so much about the uncertainty as to when you folks are going to get to go home. How would you describe morale?

Chief Warrant Officer Randy Kergiss: My unit morale's pretty good. . . . People are ready to execute their missions, and they're pretty excited to be here.

Lauer: How much does that uncertainty of knowing how long you're going to be here impact morale?

Sergeant Jamie Wells: Morale's always high. Soldiers know they have a mission, they like taking on the new objectives and taking on the new challenges. . . . They're motivated, ready to go.

Lauer: Don't get me wrong, I think you guys are probably telling me the truth, but there might be a lot of people at home wondering how that could be possible with the conditions you're facing and with the insurgent attacks . . .

Captain Sherman Powell: Well, sir, I tell you -- if I got my news from the newspapers also, I'd be pretty depressed as well.

Lauer: What don't you think is being correctly portrayed?

Powell: Sir, I know it's hard to get out and get on the ground and report the news. . . . But for of those who've actually had a chance to get out and go on patrols . . . we are very satisfied with the way things are going here. And we are confident that if we're allowed to finish the job we started we'll be very proud of it and our country will be proud of us for doing it. . . .

Lauer: How would you feel about US forces being withdrawn before -- you're shaking your head -- before the insurgency is defeated?

Powell: Well, sir, I would just tell you . . . as long as we continue to have confidence that we are supported and people have our back, there is nothing we cannot accomplish.

Lauer: So you would rather stay here longer and defeat the insurgency then be pulled out earlier . . .?

Kergiss: Yes, sir.

Wells: Absolutely.

Things have gone wrong in Iraq as they go wrong in every war. Bush's strategy of defeating Islamist terrorism by draining the swamps of dictatorship and fanaticism in which it breeds carries a high price tag. Nearly 1,900 US soldiers have been killed and more than 14,000 wounded in Iraq so far. There are more casualties to come.

But another Vietnam? No -- not when such strong support for the war comes from the very soldiers who are in harm's way. Their high morale, their faith in their mission, their conviction that we are doing good -- those are the signals to heed, not the counsels of despair on the TV talk shows. It will be time to give up on Iraq when the troops give up on Iraq. So far, there's no sign they will.
0 Replies
 
Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Thu 25 Aug, 2005 08:00 am
That piece and a couple of others like it are a real eye opener, McG. Here's another which, after all the media negativity, is quite an eye opener:

Divided They Stand
By DAVID BROOKS
Published: August 25, 2005

President Bush doesn't lack for critics when it comes to his Iraq policies, but the smartest and most devastating of these is Peter W. Galbraith, a former United States ambassador to Croatia.

Yesterday, after reading gloomy press accounts about the proposed Iraqi constitution, I thought it might be interesting to hear what Galbraith himself had to say. I finally tracked him down in Baghdad (at God knows what hour there) and found that far from lambasting Bush, Galbraith was more complimentary about what the administration has just achieved than anybody else I spoke to all day.

"The Bush administration finally did something right in brokering this constitution," Galbraith exclaimed, then added: "This is the only possible deal that can bring stability. ... I do believe it might save the country."

Galbraith's argument is that the constitution reflects the reality of the nation it is meant to serve. There is, he says, no meaningful Iraqi identity. In the north, you've got a pro-Western Kurdish population. In the south, you've got a Shiite majority that wants a "pale version of an Iranian state." And in the center you've got a Sunni population that is nervous about being trapped in a system in which it would be overrun.

In the last election each group expressed its authentic identity, the Kurds by voting for autonomy-minded leaders, the Shiites for clerical parties and the Sunnis by not voting.

This constitution gives each group what it wants. It will create a very loose federation in which only things like fiscal and foreign policy are controlled in the center (even tax policy is decentralized). Oil revenues are supposed to be distributed on a per capita basis, and no group will feel inordinately oppressed by the others.

The Kurds and Shiites understand what a good deal this is. The Sunni leaders selected to attend the convention are howling because they are former Baathists who dream of a return to centralized power. But ordinary Sunnis, Galbraith says, will come to realize this deal protects them, too.

Galbraith says he is frustrated with all the American critics who argue that the constitution divides the country. The country is already divided, he says, and drawing up a constitution that would artificially bind three divergent societies together would create only friction, violence and civil war. "It's not a problem if a country breaks up, only if it breaks up violently," Galbraith says. "Iraq wasn't created by God. It was created by Winston Churchill."

One of my other calls yesterday went to another smart Iraq analyst, Reuel Marc Gerecht, formerly of the C.I.A. and now at the American Enterprise Institute. Gerecht's conclusions are often miles apart from Galbraith's, but they have one trait in common. Both of them begin their analysis by taking a hard look at the reality of Iraqi society. Neither tries to imagine what sort of constitution might be pretty to our eyes or might be good in some abstract sense. They try to envision which system comports with reality.

Gerecht is also upbeat about this constitution. It's crazy, he says, to think that you could have an Iraqi constitution in which clerical authorities are not assigned a significant role. Voters supported clerical parties because they are, right now, the natural leaders of society and serve important social functions.

But this doesn't mean we have to start screaming about a 13th-century theocratic state. Understanding the clerics, Gerecht has argued, means understanding two things. First, the Shiite clerical establishment has made a substantial intellectual leap. It now firmly believes in one person one vote, and rejects the Iranian model. On the other hand, these folks don't think like us.

What's important, Gerecht has emphasized, is the democratic process: setting up a system in which the different groups, secular and clerical, will have to bargain with one another, campaign and deal with the real-world consequences of their ideas. This is what's going to moderate them and lead to progress. This constitution does that. Shutting them out would lead to war.

The constitution also exposes the canard that America is some imperial power trying to impose its values on the world. There are many parts of this constitution any American would love. There are other parts that are strange to us.

But when you get Galbraith and Gerecht in the same mood, you know something important has happened. The U.S. has orchestrated a document that is organically Iraqi.

It's their country, after all.
http://www.nytimes.com/2005/08/25/opinion/25brooks.html
0 Replies
 
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Thu 25 Aug, 2005 09:10 am
Now: is there an agreement on the new Iraquian constitution or not?

Quote:
Aug 25, 10:31 AM (ET)
Iraq govt says constitution complete, will be passed

BAGHDAD (Reuters) - A final version of Iraq's constitution has been completed and the document will be approved later on Thursday, said government spokesman Laith Kubba.

He told reporters parliament did not need to formally meet to approve the charter because it had effectively been passed on Monday.

Iraqi lawmakers had said they would allow three more days for a review of the document in order to try bring Sunnis opposed to the deal on board.

Sunnis, who have remained fiercely opposed to the charter, say it could lead to civil war.

"Laith Kubba has been saying that we solved the disputes for a month now, but so far we have not gotten anywhere," Hussein al-Falluja, a Sunni member of the constitution panel, told Reuters. "If this constitution continues to include federalism it should be put in the bin and done again."
Source
0 Replies
 
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Thu 25 Aug, 2005 10:02 am
If the new constitution is passed, the Sunnis will increase the insurgency in Iraq. It's a lose-lose democracy for Iraq. Did I say "democracy?" Shame on me.
0 Replies
 
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Thu 25 Aug, 2005 10:09 am
Sigh, already debunked, Fox; Brooks failed to mention that Galbraith is an advisor to the Kurdish faction(who doubtlessly is recieving money from either them or the US and has a real stake in whether the constitution succeeds), and recently had this to say:

Quote:
The Bush Administration's plan conceives of constitution writing as a majoritarian exercise which is wrong. Any constitution has to be accepted by the Kurds and Sunni Arabs as well as the Shiites.


http://www.nvc.vt.edu/toalg/Website/Publish/Papers/GalbraithInterviewPublished.pdf

WH-

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/08/25/international/middleeast/25cnd-iraq.html?ei=5094&en=a5b10e1b17cd4522&hp=&ex=1125028800&partner=homepage&pagewanted=print

Quote:
August 25, 2005
Iraqi Leaders Again Put Off Meeting on New Constitution
By DEXTER FILKINS
and KIRK SEMPLE

BAGHDAD, Iraq, Aug. 25 - The National Assembly today called off a meeting that was scheduled to decide on the draft constitution, the Speaker's office said, and no new date for the meeting was immediately announced.

A vote on the document was originally deferred Monday by the Speaker, Hajim al-Hassani, who said three days of talks would be held to try to win over Sunni Arab negotiators.

It appears, however, that no agreement has been reached so far with the Sunnis on the question of federalism, which would essentially set up powerful local regions instead of a strong central government.


No vote, no date set for another one.

Cycloptichorn
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Thu 25 Aug, 2005 10:27 am
Absent any posts here to the contrary, I think the US consensus is The First Strategy is the best strategy for Iraq.

At present, there are three strategies recommended here for solving the Iraq malignancy problem.

First, is to continue our current strategy: maintain current US military force strength in Iraq; attempt to seal off Iraq’s borders with its neighbors to stop infiltration by additional malignancy into Iraq; perform continual tactical sweeps within Iraq to ferret out malignancy and kill or incarcerate it; train a new Iraqi security force to replace the current US military security force in Iraq; support current Iraqi interim government efforts to create a new Iraqi government of their own design.

Second, is to set a deadline for US withdrawal from Iraq regardless of whether the new Iraq government is able to adequately suppress malignancy by that deadline, while concurrently the US attempts to enlist increased participation of other representative governments in helping the Iraqis suppress malignancy.

Third, is to announce and implement three additional tactics to the First strategy: (1) all current and future malignancy prisoners are to be incinerated at a rate that is a number N (where N = an integer from 1 to 10) times the rate M at which malignancy murders Iraqi civilians; (2) all occupants of land within 15 miles outside Iraq borders are to be removed, incarcerated or killed; (3) the current interim Iraqi government is to be given two choices – either create a government that institutionalizes the doctrine of Live And Let Live, or form three autonomous self-governing regions (i.e., Kurd, Sunni, Shite) and suffer US control of the distribution of Iraqi oil revenues.

OK, Now I too am a supporter for The First Strategy!
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Thu 25 Aug, 2005 10:31 am
Distributed by American Committees on Foreign Relations, ACFR NewsGroup (description at: www.acfr.org ) No. 596, Wednesday, August 24, 2005; the author wrote:


The War on Terror: Year Five
From the August 29, 2005 issue: It's global and it's at a crucial moment. by Jeffrey Bell and Frank Cannon
by Jeffrey Bell & Frank Cannon
Weekly Standard
08/29/2005, Volume 010, Issue 46

ON SEPTEMBER 11, THE United States will observe the fourth anniversary of its entry into the war on terrorism. The war has already exceeded by a few months our entire time of involvement in World War II. It's hardly too early to take stock of what we've learned about the nature of the war and the stakes involved in its outcome.

First, this is a world war. From North America to Indonesia, with many points of impact in between, the war has drawn in dozens of nations and billions of people.

Second, the war has taken the form of a civil war in increasing numbers of countries. From the beginning its hallmark was a convulsive upheaval within the Islamic religion. In its first wave, the clash within Islam led to discord among different kinds of Muslims in such countries as Pakistan and Turkey. Recent events in the Netherlands and Britain have underlined its potential for civil violence within every non-Muslim democratic country with a sizable minority of Muslims.

Third, to a surprising degree, the war has remained fundamentally bipolar. Its two poles are the United States and the violent wing of Sunni Islam symbolized and led by Osama bin Laden and his terror vehicle, al Qaeda. At first glance this attribute may seem to contradict elements of the first two, which are about the war's global reach and multiplicity of players. But it does not.

A good analogy is to the Cold War, which from 1945 to 1991 drew in billions of people and dozens of governments, but at root was always a bipolar conflict between the United States and Soviet-style communism based in Moscow. The bipolarity of the Cold War is underlined by the fact that survival of the main Asian Communist regimes after the 1991 dissolution of the Soviet state led no one to say the Cold War was continuing.

Nonetheless, during the course of the Cold War there was no shortage of elite analysts willing to argue the reverse, or at least that world politics was getting less and less bipolar. The implication, almost always, was that hawkish leaders like Ronald Reagan were "simplistic" in their belief that undoing or neutralizing Soviet power was the key to ending the Cold War.

Similarly, from the beginning of the war on terrorism, many if not most analysts, particularly the huge portion hostile to George W. Bush and dovish on the war, have posited a multiheaded enemy that will suffer a setback on one front only to pop up on another. The implication is that our most unarguable victories (such as overthrowing the Saddam Hussein tyranny in Iraq) are exercises in futility or (worse) counterproductive provocations that enhance recruitment of anti-American terrorists all over the world. If this is true, if the enemy is so ubiquitous and diffuse, why even try for a victory?

Yet the movements and statements of our most indisputable enemies have increasingly pointed in the other direction, toward bipolarity. Organizations claiming to be branches of al Qaeda are currently fighting the United States in Iraq and our key ally, Britain, in London. Like the Madrid bombings of March 11, 2004, which ejected Spain from Iraq, the London terror bombs aim to get Britain out of Iraq and out of its strategic alliance with the United States. Thus the two chief protagonists in the war, the United States and al Qaeda, are in complete agreement that Iraq is the central front of the global war, and that getting the United States' chief ally out of Iraq would thus be an enormous coup for our enemies.

The war is what military analysts call "asymmetric." One side is the world's only superpower. The other side is not only unable to prevail in military terms, but in most situations is unwilling even to try. Hence its emphasis on mass killing of civilians as its main objective, and on suicide bombers as its most effective weapon in achieving that objective. Though President Bush has been accused of political correctness for calling the war a war on terror rather than on Islamism or Islamofascism, the Bush terminology has a certain salience: It is hard to think of a past war, particularly one on such a vast scale, where one side used terror as its main, nearly its only, effective weapon.

When terror works, it works above all as psychology. Osama bin Laden conceived his attack on the Twin Towers as a masterstroke of psychological warfare. If America could be driven out of Somalia in 1993 by mere dozens of casualties, he is known to have believed, the sudden, unexpected murder of thousands would compel us to wash our hands not just of Saudi Arabia but of the entire Arab world, the greater Middle East, and ultimately of the world of Islam altogether.

In this hope, of course, he gravely miscalculated. The United States, personified by the newly elected George W. Bush, was in no mood to retreat after 9/11. Instead, the administration concluded, we must be more proactive in the Arab world, the greater Middle East, and the larger world of Islam, than we ever dreamed of being before.

This meant, in a first phase, turning the Musharraf regime in Pakistan toward our side and going to war to remove Afghanistan's Taliban regime, Osama's host and only overt ally among the world's governments. These happened surprisingly quickly.

In the second phase, America turned its attention to the Arab world, the homeland of all the 9/11 suicide bombers. Two entities in that almost completely dictatorial world dared to allow or foster street-level celebrations of the mass murder of Americans: Saddam Hussein's Iraq and the Palestinian Authority of Yasser Arafat. President Bush began preparations for regime change in Iraq. And he announced that the United States would no longer participate in Israeli-Palestinian peace efforts as long as Arafat was one of the two putative partners.

Bush also came to the conclusion that replacing one or two Arab dictators with new dictators would avail little. Influenced by the work of Natan Sharansky, Bush concluded that nothing less than a democratic revolution in the Arab world stood any chance of removing the roots of terrorism.

Bush has been widely ridiculed for this conclusion, particularly at moments when the U.S.-backed democratic timetable in Iraq hits bumps in the road. Brent Scowcroft and many other members of the U.S. foreign-policy elite know better, as do sophisticated Europeans like Jacques Chirac and Gerhard Schröder.

But there is one person who has never had any doubt that Bush is right, and therefore has moved heaven and earth to try to prevent democracy from getting an Iraqi foothold: Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, the head of al Qaeda in Mesopotamia and the most effective general al Qaeda has found in the four years of this world war. Zarqawi's certainty on this point--the devastating effect democratization would have on the cause of Islamist terrorism--is undoubtedly a big reason al Qaeda has put so many chips--not just in Iraq itself, but in Madrid and London--on demoralizing supporters of the Bush-Blair-Sharansky strategy of promoting Arab democracy.

Born in 1966 of Palestinian exile parents in Jordan, Zarqawi had the sort of background that would until recently have presaged a career as an Arab nationalist. His desire to work with bin Laden and al Qaeda, rather than being a kind of masquerade, is one of the chief signs of growing bipolarity in the larger war. Any Arab who wants to fight the Great Satan in the world of 2005 must of necessity be (or become) an Islamist. Any secular enemy (such as the Baathist regime in Syria) that decides to intervene sends Islamist fighters across the border, not Baathist fighters.

In the second or Arab phase of the war, Washington was somewhat slower to come to terms with a simple but overwhelming fact: Virtually all of the upsurge in Sunni radicalism in recent years has been financed by Wahhabists in Saudi Arabia. Without Saudi oil money, few of the madrassas and sparkling new radical mosques springing up all over the world would exist. There are signs Saudi money is financing much of the terrorism going on in Iraq today. Somewhat slowly, yet decisively, President Bush came around to the view that democratic reform in the Arab world must include Saudi Arabia.

As the war enters its fifth year, some important inflection points will soon arrive, enough of them for the war to enter a third and perhaps even decisive phase. Because both sides in the bipolar world war believe Iraq is its central battlefield, the inflection points tend to revolve around developments there.

(a) The democratic transition in Iraq will or will not work.

(b) The United States will or will not take decisive steps to stop enemy infiltration from Syria.

(c) King Abdullah will or will not attempt serious reforms in Saudi Arabia, which will greatly affect the issue of whether . . .

(d) Saudi Wahhabist money will or will not continue funding Sunni radicalism in every form, from the madrassas to bin Laden and Zarqawi.

(e) Democratic forces in the Palestinian Authority, assuming they exist, will or will not seize on Israel's withdrawal from Gaza as an opportunity to defeat Palestinian Islamists and win the peace.

Two other factors are less easy to plot as inflection points. One is the role of Iran and the larger Shiite world in the drama of the war between the United States and Sunni radicalism. It is, for example, hard to fathom what Iran fears more: Zarqawi and his overt attempt to elevate the mass murder of Shiites to central status in al Qaeda's Iraq strategy, or the rise of a Shiite-led democratic Iraq.

Finally, there is the relationship between the conduct of the world war and the state of play in American politics. The mass murders of 9/11, much against the hopes of bin Laden, made most Americans into hawks in the first phase of the war. It is reasonable to speculate that the realization of this backfire has played a part in the lack of enemy attacks on the U.S. mainland in the four years since. After the successful January elections in Iraq, the Bush administration turned its attention in other directions, mostly domestic, at the very time when the enemy's Iraq terror achieved a peak of effective psywar.

Meanwhile, Democrats are tempted to treat Iraq as a stand-alone Bush blunder rather than the intense pressure point of a far larger conflict that in fact it is. What if the Democrats succumb to their antiwar temptation at precisely the time when the worldwide nature of the conflict again becomes clear? Would a renewed campaign of mass murder on the American mainland make people think of the failure of the Bush administration to prevent it, or of the folly of antiwar Democrats?

There is plenty of uncertainty and danger on the American side about all these issues and inflection points. The good news is that our asymmetric enemy has even more to worry about, and far less margin for new errors.

Jeffrey Bell and Frank Cannon are principals of Capital City Partners, a Washington consulting firm.
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