The US, UN & Iraq II

There is some controversy. The Pentagon endorses the opinion that debris specific to the Scud has been identified. The name "Scud" is a Nato designation for a particular Soviet Bloc missile. The Ababil is a much smaller missile, of less range and lower payload.

hopefully time will tell.

Reports earlier today indicated "Increased activity" at Fairford ... reports now have "Several" B-52s departing the base over the past few minutes. Baghdad may be in for an early wake-up call. The US could be about to bang its fist on the negotiating table in a few hours.

Most recent first (you pays you money, you takes you choice):

Filed at 11:39 a.m. ET
BERLIN (Reuters) - The German Defense Ministry said on Saturday an examination conducted by German soldiers on an Iraq missile fired at Kuwait found no signs of biological or chemical weapons. A spokesman for the ministry in Berlin said a team of German chemical, nuclear and biological weapons experts had examined the remains of the missile on Friday. ``It is a Scud missile but had neither biological or chemical weapons on it,'' Defense Minister Peter Struck said.
http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/international/international-iraq-kuwait-germany.html

Filed at 10:14 a.m. ET
No Iraqi missile fired at neighboring Kuwait since Thursday was an actual Scud missile -- which would have amounted to an open-and-shut case that Saddam possessed weapons forbidden by the United Nations, Vernon said. None carried chemical or biological warheads.
http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/international/AP-War-Iraq-Britain.html

Filed at 5:02 p.m. ET
The Iraqis still have workable air defenses, which they are moving around in the obvious hope of saving them for future use, Franks said. In addition, more than two dozen Scud missile launchers remain unaccounted for from the Gulf War, Franks said, noting that the Iraqis have fired six surface-to-surface missiles into Kuwait in the last few days. None have been Scuds.
http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/international/AP-War-Hurdles-Ahead.html

Thursday March 20, 2003 The Iraqis today struck back in response to overnight bombing raids by coalition forces, firing Scud and other, smaller, missiles at the border area with northern Kuwait where US and British troops are massed, US and Kuwaiti officials said.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/international/story/0,3604,918150,00.html

Obviously, evidence is being gathered and evaluated, and, as not unusual, there are those who will assume their position validated either way.


Oh, another heads up ... look for 101st Airborne to get a bit more media mention in the coming hours.

I think the German response to Turkey is getting interesting, too.

Timber -- Right now in NPR's "continuing coverage" they're broadcasting interviews with vets about the memories and views of this war -- very interesting and often very emotional. Very much worth a listen.

Thanks, Tararin. I'm on media overload right now anyway, trying to follow breaking war developments. My most urgent "Worry thing" right now is a devout wish the Ant-War Demonstrations do not turn into Peace Riots. The Agitprop professionals are currently attempting to upstage the legitmate dissenters in NYC as I type. Damnit, war makes people crazy. I hate it ... yet it has a horrible fascination for me. I know precisely which units and ships are there, and I know many people there too, some with whom I am in touch, and others from whom I've had no word for days. I am concerned near to the point of obsession. Tonight US time, early morning Iraq time, could be packed with developments. The Iraqis aren't the only ones whose sleep patterns have been disrupted.

Timber

I heard early yesterday that 2 Iraqi divisions near or around Basra had surrendered or at least the commanders had---but no mention of it today. What do you know?

I heard that something over 1000 had surrendered near Basra, including some officers I believe. Don't know what a division is (in numbers) but I heard a division or so...

"My most urgent "Worry thing" right now is a devout wish the Ant-War Demonstrations do not turn into Peace Riots. The Agitprop professionals are currently attempting to upstage the legitmate dissenters in NYC as I type."

That's to be expected, Timber. It happens on both sides of the issues. Doesn't worry me a whole lot. I hope what happens is that the peace movement in this country will ally itself politically with the peace movements going on elsewhere. That would speak well for us and might even help. In most countries where socialists and communists are acceptable sectors of the political spectrum (as they are in my own personal political spectrum), they tend to try to organize the centrists. Much the same influence has been exerted on centrist Republicans from the far righties. Our political spectrum in this country could use a little stretching! Though of course not riots!

Tartarin

We are on the list. I can feel it in my very bones, though perhaps that is just the arctic air mass. Not only do we have oil, but we have water, and that will surely be the war-making commodity of this century.

There IS a case to be made against Canada, but it involves Celine Dion's recordings and Dan Ackroyd's dramatic performances, not the benign elements you mention.

Cretien has already been demonized. I did it. But since he decided to retire, he's FINALLY gained courage, and so I engaged a professional dedemonizer. They'll have to pick on the next guy.

Well, if you wanna get serious, Blatham, water is the one to get serious about. It's an issue I can go to the mat on...

Agree about Celine. But not Dan.

the pentagon will name it Operation Big Straw

This blog: www.Agonist.org is reporting that a US soldier AWOL has been taken into custody about the grenade and artillery attack on the 101st Airborne in Kuwait.

The Iraqi 11th Division and 51st Mechanized are both reported to have surrendered. That should be around 14 or 15 thousand men. The 51st had an estimated 200 Russian built tanks a few days ago, I have no idea how many have survived. These are both good regular Iraqi Army Divisions, but they are far below the capabilities of the Republican Guard.

There are about 15,000 regular Republican Guard, and another 5,000 of the Special Republican Guard. That's four Divisions, a Division being anywhere for around 4 thousand, to as many as 8 thousand, the average being 6 thousand. The two Regular Republican Guard Divisions that seem most highly regarded are the Hanurrabi and Nebucanezer Divisions, both of whom are stationed in, or near Baghdad.

Our troops are doing wonderful work, and this campaign is going to be studied for generatations. The logistical excellence, and operational skills desplayed in the last few days is awe inspiring. My son's assignments and duties keep him from the battlefield. I know he's disappointed. My feelings are more ambiguous. I know how frustrating it is for a professional soldier to miss the action for which you train so hard, but on the other hand, a father can't help but feel relief that their children are not in harm's way.

God bless the nation and our troops, may the victory come quickly and with the minimum loss of life and property.

This from my just-arrived Economist.


http://www.economist.com/displaystory.cfm?story_id=S%27%29H4%29PQ3%25%23P%22%24%0A

Asherman: Hear, Hear.

Asherman-

"Our troops are doing wonderful work, and this campaign is going to be studied for generatations. The logistical excellence, and operational skills desplayed in the last few days is awe inspiring. My son's assignments and duties keep him from the battlefield. I know he's disappointed. My feelings are more ambiguous. I know how frustrating it is for a professional soldier to miss the action for which you train so hard, but on the other hand, a father can't help but feel relief that their children are not in harm's way. "

Wonderful work? Studied for generations? Man, you are a CNN programming director's dream demographic - someone who will swallow any hoorah about American military magnificence they spew. I know, I know - your sources are much more sophisticated than mere CNN, but don't miss the frikkin' POINT -
This "war" was about as evenly matched as my grandma agaainst Muhammad Ali. But that won't stop you and other geniuses of your ilk from crowing about the "masterful tactics" and "textbook strategies". I mean, how can I ever communicate with people whose perspective is this goddam BENT!!!!??!

If anything, I would up those bumbers a bit, but in general I agree with Asherman. USMC and British units are well beyond what amounts to a well-encapsulated Basra, feeling secure enough to press unrelated offensive action. Roadspeed and fuel replenishment are operational limiters. Surrenders in excess of announced numbers are widely accepted to be occuring, though there are pockets of resistance. Combat Close-Air-Support units are busy. A major push on Baghdad is being implemented, though an intervening unmistakeable demonstration of US capability, very near-term, and a following brief assessment period may be expected. The next several hours will be characterized by significant, if not War Altering, developments, the way I read things.