Semper Fi and Godspeed to timber jr.
How to Tell if We're Winning in Iraq
A relevant excerpt:
What happens in the southern Iraqi city of Basra may be a key indicator of success, in political and psychological terms anyway. The 1st Marine Expeditionary Force may capture Basra early, in part to secure its port and oil wells, in part to send images of triumph to the world. President Bush's advisers have assured him that Iraqis will welcome American troops with cheers and flowers. Basra is where this vision has the highest chance of coming true. Its million people are Shiite Muslims, who no doubt hate Saddam Hussein and would likely welcome liberation from anybody. The troops (who are likely to include some Brits as well as Americans) are reportedly well-armed with candy for smiling Shiite children, which is bound to inspire memories of GIs giving Hershey bars to Berlin tykes in '45. This would be a huge morale booster, for our troops and for Bush and Tony Blair. So, the big question is: Will we see such images? If we do, this won't necessarily foretell what might happen further north. But if we don't, if things in Basra are grim, this may forebode deep unpleasantries ahead.
A related question is whether Iraqi soldiers around Basra will put up any serious resistance. Most of these soldiers are regular army units, the majority of them Shiites who have been ill-treated by their Sunni officers and who do not want to die for Saddam Hussein. British intelligence is reportedly seeing 10 percent to 15 percent of front-line troops deserting before a shot's been fired. Once the bombs start, the ranks are likely to thin dramatically. (Mass surrenders took place in '91; in some cases, hundreds of Iraqi soldiers surrendered to a handful of American soldiers.) U.S. commanders are counting on virtually no resistance. If the Iraqis put up quite a bit of resistance, it's a bad sign.
Another question about Basra is whether or not Iraqi soldiers will fire chemical and biological weapons. Saddam has put Lt. Gen. Ali Hasan in charge of Iraq's southern military districts. Hasan earned the nickname "Chemical Ali" for his chemical-weapons assaults in 1988, which killed thousands of Kurds. If U.S. and British troops don't face "weapons of mass destruction" here, it's a good sign.