old europe wrote:<sigh>
got one more
Quote:Here's what Bush said:
"We found the weapons of mass destruction. We found biological laboratories."
Interview of the President by TVP, Poland - 3/29/2003
Bush's claim:
- WMD were found in Iraq.
- Biological laboratories were found in Iraq.
Reality:
Not True
Zero WMD Found. Zero Biological Laboratories Found.
No WMD or biological laboraties have been found anywhere in Iraq
Not only was the invasion of Iraq necessary, we will have to do it again with other countries in the not too distant future.
You make the same mistake over and over, and appear to be incapable of understanding the situation. Here is an analogy. Let's suppose that your doctor tells you that you may have a certain disease. The only way to really know for sure is to do exploratory surgery. If you do the exploratory surgery and find that you do have the disease, you can fix it on the spot. On the other hand, if you do have the disease and wait until it manifests symptoms, you are certain to die painfully. The chance that you have the disease at all is 25% The chance that the exploratory surgery will kill you itself is 10%. Should you have the exploratory surgery? I say yes. Although the chance that you have the disease is only moderate, the consequence if you do is immense.
Some people will point out all the differences between this analogy and the invasion of Iraq on the chance that the WMD had not been destroyed, but this is specious, because I am not suggesting that the two situations are very parallel. They are parallel
only in the one sense that you must take into account both the likelihood that the hypothesis true, and the consequences if it is true. It is unintelligent to keep repeating that you shouldn't do the surgery because the chance that you have the disease is only 25%, because that ignores the fact that the consequences if you do have it are immense. Both factors must be taken into account, not just one or the other.
The very next time a dictator of a more than usually dangerous sort has been working on building WMD, negotiations have proven fruitless, and the actual situation is unclear, we will have to invade, or face a significant chance of incalculably severe consequences just down the road. Why is this true now when it wasn't true historically? It's a simple consequence of the advance of technology. Never before in history have WMD been within the reach of small countries and even private organizations.