114
   

Where is the US economy headed?

 
 
Thomas
 
  1  
Reply Thu 25 Aug, 2011 07:10 am
@georgeob1,
georgeob1 wrote:
The government used Fannie Mae & Freddy Mac to artificially attract capital to the housing market through the largely government-directed actions of these quasi government corporations, which borrowed money at reduced rates because of the implied Federal guarantee and used it to buy mortgages from primary lenders and then securitize them for sale to investors.

That's not a fact, that's just an after-the-fact rationalization conservatives like to peddle. It helps them blame the collapse on the government rather than the free market for sub-prime loans. (Here are the top-15 sub-prime lending institutions at the time of the crash; Fannie and Freddie weren't among them.) I challenge you to go to the Wall Street Journal's website and find a pre-2007 article complaining about Fannie, Freddie, and their role in inflating a housing bubble. I bet you won't find one. This story is entirely made up after the fact. Repeating it endlessly won't make it real, or even a credible theory.
parados
 
  -1  
Reply Thu 25 Aug, 2011 07:54 am
@Thomas,
Here is a good overview on the crisis.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Subprime_mortgage_crisis#High-risk_mortgage_loans_and_lending.2Fborrowing_practices


Quote:
While the housing and credit bubbles were growing, a series of factors caused the financial system to become increasingly fragile. Policymakers did not recognize the increasingly important role played by financial institutions such as investment banks and hedge funds, also known as the shadow banking system. Some experts believe these institutions had become as important as commercial (depository) banks in providing credit to the U.S. economy, but they were not subject to the same regulations.[8] These institutions as well as certain regulated banks had also assumed significant debt burdens while providing the loans described above and did not have a financial cushion sufficient to absorb large loan defaults or MBS losses.
cicerone imposter
 
  0  
Reply Thu 25 Aug, 2011 09:14 am
@parados,
That summarizes it very well; most republicans blame Fannie and Freddie, and forget the true underlying problems with the financial institutions and their reckless behavior all under the eyes of the government, the S&P and other rating agencies.
Cycloptichorn
 
  0  
Reply Thu 25 Aug, 2011 09:15 am
@cicerone imposter,
cicerone imposter wrote:

That summarizes it very well; most republicans blame Fannie and Freddie, and forget the true underlying problems with the financial institutions and their reckless behavior all under the eyes of the government, the S&P and other rating agencies.


Ah, but you see, the Government ALLOWED them to behave recklessly, so by Conservative logic, that means the government actually ENCOURAGED them to do so; so, it's all the Democrats' fault. Or something.

Cycloptichorn
0 Replies
 
cicerone imposter
 
  0  
Reply Thu 25 Aug, 2011 09:28 am
Warren Buffett invested $5 billion into BofA which indicates to me that Buffett believes saving the US bank is a necessary evil to save our economy. BofA is also one of the largest five banks in the world.

Considering the problems with the European banks and liquidity problems, I think Buffett did the right thing.

I'm also surprised that gold prices are holding steady when I believe it should be dropping a lot more.
Irishk
 
  1  
Reply Thu 25 Aug, 2011 11:46 am
@Thomas,
Thomas wrote:
I challenge you to go to the Wall Street Journal's website and find a pre-2007 article complaining about Fannie, Freddie, and their role in inflating a housing bubble. I bet you won't find one. This story is entirely made up after the fact. Repeating it endlessly won't make it real, or even a credible theory.


The WSJ did provide a lot of coverage, though (along with many other financial journalists)...starting back in 2000. Maybe nobody was reading...or listening...

Quote:
Let's start with the Wall Street Journal...

The first page-one story questioning the lenders' practices ran on July 14, 2000. Brauchli was called to Fannie Mae's headquarters in 2001 to meet with CEO Franklin Raines, who was upset about the tone of the articles. "He felt we were unduly critical," Brauchli remembers. "We were just reporting the facts."

The Journal published numerous stories about the lenders, hammering away at the excesses it uncovered – often on the front page. On January 2, 2002, reporters Jathon Sapsford and Patrick Barta wrote about the dramatic increase in consumer lending. On August 6 of that year, Barta followed up with a 2,400-word examination of Fannie and Freddie that asked, "With homeownership already so high, are Fannie and Freddie running out of room to grow?" In the fifth paragraph, he wrote, "The huge size and rapid growth, coupled with their concentration in a single industry, has brought concern about possible risk to the U.S. economy should one of them ever fail."

A month later, on September 17, a Barta story on the front of the Journal's Money & Investing section pointed out the increased risk on Fannie's financial statements because of falling interest rates. On August 19, 2003, Barta and fellow reporter Ruth Simon wrote a front-page story on the hidden closing costs for mortgages.

And a month later, a 3,000-word bombshell on Freddie, written by Barta, John D. McKinnon and Gregory Zuckerman, appeared on the Journal's front page. They wrote: "Far from the sleepy mortgage company of its carefully cultivated reputation, Freddie Mac in recent years has evolved into a giant, sophisticated investment company, running a business laden with volatility and complexity. That change has sent risks soaring, not just for investors but for U.S. taxpayers, who likely would be on the hook if the federally chartered company stumbled."

Stories about the increasing uncertainty in the real estate market appeared regularly in the Journal for the next several years until the market imploded. A May 2005 front-page story focused on homeowners who took on too much debt while buying real estate. An August 2005 front-page story examined the fact that lenders were selling more mortgages because investors wanted the securities that backed them. James Hagerty wrote a front-page story on March 11, 2006, about the dangers of adjustable-rate mortgages. In December 2006, a front-page article about the increase of delinquent subprime mortgages appeared, noting, "If late payments and foreclosures continue to rise at a faster-than-expected pace, the pain could extend beyond homeowners and lenders to the investors who buy mortgage-backed securities."

Another Journal reporter, Jesse Eisinger, wrote extensively during this period about the risks posed by derivatives. And since joining Portfolio in 2006, Eisinger has repeatedly written about how derivatives might cause turmoil on Wall Street, going as far as to predict in a November 2007 cover story that Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers would struggle to remain independent.

Nikhil Deogun, a former editor of the Journal's Money & Investing section and now deputy managing editor, says the coverage was intentionally repetitive to hammer home the point. "People may not have heard you, so you have to explore different angles to tell the same story a different way," he says. "I'm kind of curious as to..why is it that people were shocked, given the volume of coverage."



http://www.ajr.org/article.asp?id=4668
MontereyJack
 
  0  
Reply Thu 25 Aug, 2011 11:56 am
From the aritcle you cite, Thomas's point remains valid--what they're talking about re fannie and Freddie wasn't what led to the meltdown, which was mostly due to the private sector, and in the second half of the article, where they are in fact talking about subprime mortgages, derivatives, and the like, which turned out to be the problemyou'll note the examples cited are in the private sector, which was where the whole collapse centered..
0 Replies
 
Thomas
 
  1  
Reply Thu 25 Aug, 2011 12:01 pm
@Irishk,
There's nothing in your link about a role of Fannie's and Freddie's in creating a housing bubble---or even the existence of one. Perhaps the actual articles talk about it. But then again, you didn't provide those, and the article behind your link doesn't contain the full citation, so I can't look for it in a library or their archive.
hawkeye10
 
  1  
Reply Thu 25 Aug, 2011 12:08 pm
@cicerone imposter,
Quote:
Warren Buffett invested $5 billion into BofA which indicates to me that Buffett believes saving the US bank is a necessary evil to save our economy. BofA is also one of the largest five banks in the world
What it means is that B of A is in big trouble, and needs more capital...you will recall that Buffet did the same sort of deal with I think it was Goldman Sachs during the depth of the crash....the bank gets a lot of his money fast, but they sure pay for it. In this case Buffet got a special stock with 6% dividend, great for Buffet, not so good for the bank or any of the other investors.
0 Replies
 
Irishk
 
  1  
Reply Thu 25 Aug, 2011 12:15 pm
@Thomas,
They did complain about them, though...

Quote:
The Wall Street Journal's aggressive coverage of government-based lenders Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac dates back nearly a decade. In 2004, one piece in the Journal compared Fannie Mae to Enron and WorldCom, two companies that crashed and burned the last time business journalists were blamed for an economic downturn.
Thomas
 
  1  
Reply Thu 25 Aug, 2011 12:20 pm
@Irishk,
True (at least according to AJR's summary), but irrelevant. I was talking to georgeob1 about the housing bubble. The WSJ, according to AJR, complained about Fannie and Freddie for reasons other than the housing bubble.
0 Replies
 
georgeob1
 
  2  
Reply Thu 25 Aug, 2011 12:39 pm
@Thomas,
Thomas wrote:

georgeob1 wrote:
The government used Fannie Mae & Freddy Mac to artificially attract capital to the housing market through the largely government-directed actions of these quasi government corporations, which borrowed money at reduced rates because of the implied Federal guarantee and used it to buy mortgages from primary lenders and then securitize them for sale to investors.

That's not a fact, that's just an after-the-fact rationalization conservatives like to peddle. It helps them blame the collapse on the government rather than the free market for sub-prime loans. (Here are the top-15 sub-prime lending institutions at the time of the crash; Fannie and Freddie weren't among them.) I challenge you to go to the Wall Street Journal's website and find a pre-2007 article complaining about Fannie, Freddie, and their role in inflating a housing bubble. I bet you won't find one. This story is entirely made up after the fact. Repeating it endlessly won't make it real, or even a credible theory.


You are omitting the far more significant role of Fannie & Freddy in buying and securitizing the loans made by other lenders, thereby replenishing the capital available to mortgage lenders, and doing so with cheap money cecured under the implied government guarantee uniquelyenjoyed by Fannie & Freddy. You are also ignoring the fact that the continuing government bailout of these institutions will exceed by far the net cost for all other banks.

The articles already cited in the WSJ expressed concern about the future risk exposure of these institutions and its potential impoact on the government. There were also several attempts during the Bush years (not energetic enough) to rein in these institutions - attempts which were energetically opposed by the esteemed Barney Frank in the House Committee. It seems to me that concern about a housing bubble was implicit in all that. I also generally recall lots of articles in the WSJ, the Economist and other venues concerning both the rapid rise in housing prices and the growing aggregate mortgage debt in the country during the years before 2007. Indeed, partly based on all that I sold a property I had in Virginia not long before the market peak. From a financial perspective I would have been better off selling property in California, but I do enjoy the Bay area.
Cycloptichorn
 
  -1  
Reply Thu 25 Aug, 2011 12:54 pm
@georgeob1,
Quote:
There were also several attempts during te Bush years (not energetic enough) to rein in these institutions - attempts which were energetically opposed by the esteemed Barney Frank in the House Committee.


These attempts were so 'not energetic enough' as to be non-existent. The Republicans, as you are fond of pointing out, controlled both houses of Congress during this time; if there had been any real appetite for reform, the Dems couldn't have stopped them if they wanted to. So, I'm gonna have to call BS on this one. By your own criteria, the GOP is entirely responsible for this problem, as they consciously chose to do nothing about this when they had every opportunity to do so.

Was there a single piece of legislation that the GOP put forth to solve these problems, that the Dems blocked? I think not. So your line above about the Dems 'energetically' opposing this is immaterial.

You're basically claiming that the gov't allowed a situation to occur, where private lending institutions could make incredibly risky decisions, which those companies promptly chose to do; and it's the gov'ts fault for allowing it to happen. Right? And the fact that Republicans RAN the government at that point is also somehow immaterial to your blame, which isn't just on the gov't, but specifically on Democrats. Gotcha.

Quote:
From a financial perspective I would have been better off selling property in California, but I do enjoy the Bay area.


... which is why I don't take the 'businesses streaming out of CA' talk seriously. People WANT to live here and people with a lot of money want to live in the Bay Area.

Cycloptichorn
cicerone imposter
 
  0  
Reply Thu 25 Aug, 2011 12:59 pm
@Cycloptichorn,
We've heard it often enough when Bush was president; less government intrusions into business. He promoted "free enterprise."

It really worked out for him. Evil or Very Mad Evil or Very Mad Drunk Drunk Drunk
0 Replies
 
Thomas
 
  1  
Reply Thu 25 Aug, 2011 01:09 pm
@georgeob1,
georgeob1 wrote:
You are omitting the far more significant role of Fannie & Freddy in buying and securitizing the loans made by other lenders,

What percentage of sub-prime loans did Fannie and Freddie buy and securitize? Can you provide an independent source for your number?

georgeob1 wrote:
You are also ignoring the fact that the continuing government bailout of these institutions will exceed by far the net cost for all other banks.

I agree that bailouts of any lending institutions are bad, be they Citibank or Fannie. It would have been much better to buy equity at their fair, but depressed market prices, throw the bums out, or at least keep the bums from lobbying against regulating the banking system, and selling back the equity when markets have recovered. But hey, that's what you get when your Democratic president governs as a closet Republican. Aside of that, the US government should never have privatized Fannie and Freddie.

georgeob1 wrote:
The articles already cited in the WSJ

There were no articles in the WSJ cited. Cited was a second-hand summary of those articles, without a reference that would allow us to check the originals.

(For responding to the rest of your post, I pass the buck to Cycloptichorn, who has already done a competent job on it.)
georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Thu 25 Aug, 2011 03:48 pm
@Thomas,
Thomas wrote:

georgeob1 wrote:
You are omitting the far more significant role of Fannie & Freddy in buying and securitizing the loans made by other lenders,

What percentage of sub-prime loans did Fannie and Freddie buy and securitize? Can you provide an independent source for your number?
Historically these quasi Federal banks provided the great majority of mortgage backed securities. During the four years leading up to the 2007 crisis that fiugure dropped to about half of the total as commercial banks joined the frenzy backed up by the illusion of CDS insurance. I don't know the fraction for sub prime loans, however under pressure from the CRA all banks were urged to make these loans. My point is that Fannie & Freddy had long been misusing the implied credit of the government to attract an order of magnitude more capital to the home mortgage market than would otherwise have occurred - a process that undermined restraint acroiss the whole market, and that was the core driver for the housing bubble. That was a far more significant contribution to the bubble than the individual mortgages they insured - exactly as I wrote above. Indeed I don't see that your response had anything at all to do with the point of mine to which you were responding.
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/4/42/MBS.png

It appears to me that you are increasingly diverting the discussion along side routes that serve your biases more than they illuminate the topic to which you are responding.

Thomas wrote:

I agree that bailouts of any lending institutions are bad, be they Citibank or Fannie. It would have been much better to buy equity at their fair, but depressed market prices, throw the bums out, or at least keep the bums from lobbying against regulating the banking system, and selling back the equity when markets have recovered. But hey, that's what you get when your Democratic president governs as a closet Republican. Aside of that, the US government should never have privatized Fannie and Freddie.
Are you suggesting that our hapless President "governed" at all ? I doubt that you could find any Republicans who would agree that Obama behaved in any way as one of them. That is your own private fantasy.

If I'm not mistaken, Fannie and Freddie were created by the government as quasi private corporations: they were never "privatized".

Cycloptichorn
 
  3  
Reply Thu 25 Aug, 2011 05:48 pm
@georgeob1,
Quote:
Are you suggesting that our hapless President "governed" at all ? I doubt that you could find any Republicans who would agree that Obama behaved in any way as one of them. That is your own private fantasy.


David Frum and Bruce Bartlett have both forwarded this exact theory.

And Obama really is governing as a Republican in many ways; the concepts of his Health Care plan were lifted straight from Heritage papers written in the 90's; as Thomas points out, his Wall-street bailout was decidedly conservative in nature (in that he didn't nationalize the banks the way I and other Liberals called for, and instead supported big business tremendously'); and he has aggressively intervened in the foreign affairs of a country (Libya) while escalating wars in other countries (Afghanistan) and leaving much higher levels of troops in Iraq than us Libs would like.

His economic plans and speech have focused on deficit and debt reduction for at least the last 8 months, and more employees have been cut from the gov't under Obama than under any previous Republican president of the last 50 years.

In short, you're completely wrong. But this is in large part due to the fact that you have a Caricature of Obama in your mind, which isn't really reflective of the actual man at all.

Cycloptichorn
realjohnboy
 
  1  
Reply Thu 25 Aug, 2011 05:57 pm
Interesting reading for the last many pages. Please continue.
Meanwhile, I am interested in asking not about the past but..
Where Is The US Economy Headed?
The markets fell today partially out of concerns regarding German banks but also out of the realization that Bernanke is not going to signal anything of significance in his speech tomorrow. Earlier in the week there was an expectation of some QE3 plan, which I and many others doubted.
When Obama and Congress get back there is supposed to be a major plan announced by the administration. Details out so far show nothing of great significance and the Repubs, despite claiming to have a plan to offer, are staying quiet.
Word leaking out of Obama's camp today is that there may be something big involving another mortgage refinancing scheme. An earlier attempt was a total failure.
A lot of interested parties would have to sign on. Oddly enough, Congressional approval may not be necessary!
If any of you can help us decipher the nuts and bolts, that would be great.
hawkeye10
 
  1  
Reply Thu 25 Aug, 2011 06:10 pm
@realjohnboy,
Quote:
When Obama and Congress get back there is supposed to be a major plan announced by the administration
Dont count on much,,,,,,the debt ceiling problem will again quickly suck all of the air out of Washington. Becuase the economy is falling again the projections that the debt commission need to work with are ugly, and few thought that they could get the job done even with the better numbers that they had. Washington is going to be preoccupied trying to figure out how to undo the trigger that they just recently put into place, which the markets will of course hate....
georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Thu 25 Aug, 2011 07:02 pm
@hawkeye10,
I agree. I think a good case could have been made for an even larger short-term stimulus, provided it was accompanied by serious and significant provisions to curtail the medium and long term growth of our public debt. That, of course would require serious across-the-board entitlement reform; something the President and Democrat Congress weren't (and still are not) willing to even consider at all. Instead of a real debate on dealing with a crisis that combined a cyclic recession with rapidly growing and alreeady high levels of public debt - in this country and throughout most of the developed world - we got stubborn denial with respect to the medium & long term public debt; new initiatives (Obamacare) that vastly expand and worsen the entitlement problem; and an ineptly designed short term "stimulus" that was merely a payoff to Democrat constituents and didn't stimulate anything but disappointment.

The failure of our government to come to grips with this combined crisis has already destroyed confidence among consumers, investors and potential entrepreneurs. I don't see the deadlock breaking anytime soon. In these circumstances it appears very unlikely that we can avoid a double dip recession; continued high unemployment; and continued uncontrolled growth in public debt.
 

Related Topics

The States Need Help - Discussion by Robert Gentel
Fiscal Cliff - Question by JPB
Let GM go Bankrupt - Discussion by Woiyo9
Sovereign debt - Question by JohnJD
 
Copyright © 2025 MadLab, LLC :: Terms of Service :: Privacy Policy :: Page generated in 0.03 seconds on 04/20/2025 at 07:01:11