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Almost a million leave labor forc4e in October

 
 
Reply Sun 10 Nov, 2013 08:50 am
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-11-08/whopping-932000-americans-drop-out-labor-force-october-labor-participation-rate-drop

Quote:


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Type: Discussion • Score: 1 • Views: 2,064 • Replies: 9
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farmerman
 
  1  
Reply Sun 10 Nov, 2013 10:52 am
@gungasnake,
wonder how much of that was because of the Cruz missile's govt shutdown
panzade
 
  1  
Reply Sun 10 Nov, 2013 11:54 am
@gungasnake,
Depends on who you ask. Department of Labor offers this report.
Quote:
Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 204,000 in October, and the
unemployment rate was little changed at 7.3 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor
Statistics reported today.

Employment increased in leisure and hospitality, retail trade professional and technical services manufacturing, and health care.

There were no discernible impacts of the partial federal
government shutdown on the estimates of employment
hours, and earnings from the establishment survey




0 Replies
 
realjohnboy
 
  1  
Reply Sun 10 Nov, 2013 11:57 am
@farmerman,
Not that much, FM.
I follow the BLS data pretty closely and know a fair amount about the numbers. The size of the "Labor Force" increases by new workers (notably young) and decreases by newly retired people as well as people who go back to school or decide to become stay-at-home parents.
The rule of thumb is that we need 200K new jobs each month to keep up with population growth. I don't think that the decline in the labor force participation rate is a significant factor regarding unemployment rates , but...
I do believe that the demographics are a problem. We are an aging population. That is an issue that needs to be addressed.
hawkeye10
 
  1  
Reply Wed 11 Dec, 2013 04:04 pm
Quote:
The bad news is that the long-term unemployed are screwed.

In effect, when companies are looking to hire people, they scan through the résumés they get in the mail and their first step is to throw out all the résumés of people who've been unemployed for a long time. This is research based on pretty well-designed experiments that control for other variables beyond long-term unemployment. You should feel free to see that as a vile form of discrimination, or as a sensible business heuristic according to your temperament. The point is that the people who are about to lose UI benefits are not going to be able to find jobs. Not today, not after they lose benefits. In fact, they probably won't be able to find jobs ever.
Mailing unemployment insurance checks to people who aren't so much unemployed as unemployable is obviously not an ideal public policy.
.
.
.

Alternatively, we could keep paying UI checks.

But we're not going to do that. And we're not going to do relocation assistance. And we're not going to do direct hiring and public works. We're going to do nothing. We're going to tell people to go out and look for work, even though employers looking to hire can still afford to be very choosy and generally refuse to even consider the long-term unemployed as job applicants. The country failed these people first by letting the labor market stay so slack for so long that they became unhirable, and now we're going to fail them again.

http://www.slate.com/blogs/moneybox/2013/12/11/long_term_unemployment_doom.html

at some point the Washington elite (both D's and R's) are going to find out the hard way that both lying to the people and promoting expectations that will certainly not be fulfilled carries with it penalties.
0 Replies
 
hawkeye10
 
  1  
Reply Wed 11 Dec, 2013 04:10 pm
@realjohnboy,
Quote:
The rule of thumb is that we need 200K new jobs each month to keep up with population growth.
i believe the number I saw was that if we add 270,000 every month we will get back to where we were in 2008......in 2019.

of course we are not doing that well, and there is no rational reason to believe that we ever will.

but the markets and the politicians when crazy happy last month with a number just north of 200,000.

we. are. fucked.
gungasnake
 
  1  
Reply Wed 11 Dec, 2013 05:16 pm
@hawkeye10,
Jobs in manufacturing and farming aren't coming back on a scale which could fix the problem. There are entire factories in Japan in which the only job for a human is watching the robots for signs of problems.

What is needed is some gigantic project which is both beneficial and justifiable in some sense and the one obvious thing like that on the horizon is a redoubled space program.
hawkeye10
 
  1  
Reply Wed 11 Dec, 2013 06:50 pm
@gungasnake,
saw a piece about textiles coming back, because the added lead times needed for shipping are not cool for the fashion industry as trendiness becomes very important to sales. problem: the factories require almost no humans, and the machines are made in Japan.
0 Replies
 
Rickoshay75
 
  1  
Reply Thu 18 Dec, 2014 01:19 pm
@gungasnake,
gungasnake wrote:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-11-08/whopping-932000-americans-drop-out-labor-force-october-labor-participation-rate-drop

Quote:


You obviously don't know how the BLS arrives at the unemployment numbers..

QUOTE:
Each month, highly trained and experienced Census Bureau employees contact 60,000 eligible sample households and ask about the labor force activities (job holding and job seeking) -- labor force status of the members of these households...

http://www.bls.gov/cps/cps_htgm.htm

As you can see there is no independent unemployment count, only the count of 60,000 household samples, and they have been doing it since 1942.

0 Replies
 
Rickoshay75
 
  1  
Reply Fri 2 Jan, 2015 12:20 pm
@gungasnake,
gungasnake wrote:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-11-08/whopping-932000-americans-drop-out-labor-force-october-labor-participation-rate-drop

Quote:


It's amazing how many amateur economists don't know about the CPS

QUOTE: The government conducts a survey called the Current Population Survey (CPS) to measure the extent of  US unemployment, been doing it since 1942

Each month, highly trained and experienced Census Bureau employees contact 60,000 eligible sample households and ask about their labor force activities (jobholding and job seeking) and non-labor force status. 

http://www.bls.gov/cps/cps_htgm.htm#where
0 Replies
 
 

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