Where is the US economy headed?

I won't (it might take a while) but unless you can show me the industry or investment that's going to lift us out of the cycle, I will continue to believe that we are headed for some hard times.

Cycloptichorn

Bankruptcies in U.S. surge to record high


AUG. 24 5:03 P.M. ET The number of bankruptcies in the United States surged to an all-time high in the second quarter of this year as financially troubled consumers scrambled to file before a rewrite of bankruptcy laws takes full effect.

Bankruptcy filings to federal courts in the April-to-June quarter totaled 467,333, according to data released Wednesday from the Administrative Office of the U.S. Courts. That marked a record number of filings made in any quarter.

Of that total, most -- 458,597 -- were personal bankruptcy filings; the remaining 8,736 were businesses filing for bankruptcy, the data showed...

Bankruptcy Filings Up as Law Takes Effect

By REUTERS
Filed at 11:26 a.m. ET

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Bankruptcy filings in U.S. federal courts jumped 16 percent in the quarter ended June 30 from the previous period as individuals rushed to file before a tougher law takes effect, a report from the Administrative Office of the U.S. Court showed on Wednesday.

The quarterly total was the highest level of bankruptcy filings on record under a data series dating to the March 1995 period, the first quarter for which figures are available, a spokeswoman at the Administrative Office said.

In the April-to-June quarter, just prior to and in the three months after a new federal bankruptcy act became law, filings totaled 467,333, up 66,000 from the previous period. Compared with a year ago, filings rose 11 percent, the Administrative Office said.

Filings in the 12 months ended June 30 rose 0.1 percent to 1.64 million from the comparable period a year ago.

The Administrative Office of the U.S. Court said the overall increase in filings was primarily fueled by a surge in Chapter 7 filings, which calls for the liquidation of assets but allows filers to keep some property, such as a primary residence.

A new law passed earlier this year makes it tougher for individuals to qualify for Chapter 7 bankruptcy, forcing them instead to file under Chapter 13, which places debtors in repayment plans. The act became law on April 20, although many of its provisions will take effect on Oct. 17.

Chapter 7 filings jumped 17.7 percent to 362,481 in the quarter ended June 30, which is the Judiciary's third quarter. For the year ended June 30, Chapter 7 filings totaled 1.2 million, up 2.5 percent from the year earlier.

Chapter 13 filings totaled 103,142 in the third quarter and 433,945 in the year ended June 30. The 12-month total was down 5.1 percent from the year earlier.

In the 12-month period, business filings dropped to 32,406, down 9.3 percent from 35,739 filings reported in the previous 12-month period.

Jobless Claims Drop by 4,000 Last Week

By Martin Crutsinger
The Associated Press


WASHINGTON (AP) - The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits declined last week with the four-week average for people receiving benefits dropping to the lowest level in more than four years.
The Labor Department reported that 315,000 newly laid off workers applied for jobless benefits, a decline of 4,000 from the previous week, providing further evidence that solid economic growth is showing up in an improving labor market.

The four-week average for the total number of people receiving benefits dipped to 2.58 million last week, the lowest level for this figure since March 2001, the month the last recession began.

The drop of 4,000 benefit applications last week was slightly better than economists had been forecasting. Since early January, claims levels have remained well below 350,000 at levels that analysts view as signaling a healthy labor market.

That improvement was shown in the total number of people receiving benefits, which dropped to 2.58 million, based on a four-week moving average, down by 312,000 from the level of a year ago.

So far this year, a strong economy has generated an average of 191,000 new jobs per month, better than last year's average of 183,000. Employers created 207,000 jobs in July, which helped to keep the unemployment rate at a low level of 5 percent.

Many analysts believe that the overall economy, which grew at an annual rate of 3.4 percent in the spring, is powering ahead at an even faster pace above 4 percent in the current July-September quarter.

Forecasters believe the labor market will continue to improve as long as soaring energy costs don't jolt business and consumer confidence and cause cutbacks in spending. On Wednesday, the price of crude oil soared to a new all-time closing high of $67.10 per barrel.

So far, surging energy prices have not spilled over into a broadbased rise in inflation. This has allowed the Federal Reserve to continue raising interest rates at a gradual pace to make sure inflation does not get out of control.

AP-ES-08-25-05 0833EDT

I believe the economy is going to completely go to **** very soon. In the next six to nine months, the bottom will drop out. Trust me, it will happen. I KNOW it.

I had a psychic premonitory dream about it.

....and the fact remains this Administration has recorded a net job gain

Here are the numbers. Check them yourself.


Dec 2000
25-54 yrs: 98.6 million employed


June 2005
25-54 yrs: 98.3 million employed.

Meanwhile, the population of 25 to 54 year olsds increased 2.9% in that time.

Number of jobs lost due to failure to keep pace with population growth: 3.2 million.

If Timberland or someone else can explain how it is a good economy when the population goes up but the number of people working in the prime of their lives declines, I would be eternally grateful.

Been there, done that Here ... with the lookback Here.

For this year, I don't see a whole lotta movement - I expect at year end we'll have a DOW somewhere between 10.5K - 10.75K. 11K on the upside is just possible, but I don't have much confidence in that, given current indicators. On the other hand, if we go into summer above 10.5, with declining energy prices, it could happen. I think the 10K floor has been tested well enough to be considered quite firm, and barring any unforseen calamity, there is no reason to expect it might fail to hold. In short, I expect the DOW will mostly plug along sideways for a while, with light-to-moderate uptrend.