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Where is the US economy headed?

 
 
timberlandko
 
  1  
Reply Thu 12 May, 2005 12:35 pm
Don't hold your breath Cyc.
0 Replies
 
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Thu 12 May, 2005 12:48 pm
I won't (it might take a while) but unless you can show me the industry or investment that's going to lift us out of the cycle, I will continue to believe that we are headed for some hard times.

Cycloptichorn
0 Replies
 
Chrissee
 
  1  
Reply Thu 12 May, 2005 08:42 pm
Cycloptichorn wrote:
I won't (it might take a while) but unless you can show me the industry or investment that's going to lift us out of the cycle, I will continue to believe that we are headed for some hard times.

Cycloptichorn


Don't you know Timberlandko has a crystal ball? He even has the gall to tell me he thinks he knows what will happen in my parish church though he has never been there, lives about 1500 miles away and is not even a practicing Catholic.
0 Replies
 
timberlandko
 
  1  
Reply Thu 12 May, 2005 09:44 pm
Not any sorta religionist period. Done quite a bit of reading and discussing the issue though. For many years. No crystal ball, either - but years of my track record re economic and political developments is here on the boards for all to see. I haven't done badly at all. My views have drawn some heat, but events have not been inconvenient to many of the propositions I have forwarded.
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Chrissee
 
  1  
Reply Thu 12 May, 2005 09:49 pm
Oh puhleeeze, you make general statements that can't be proven right or wrong. Where will the Dow be at the end of this calendar year?
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timberlandko
 
  1  
Reply Thu 12 May, 2005 11:49 pm
Been there, done that Here ... with the lookback Here.

For this year, I don't see a whole lotta movement - I expect at year end we'll have a DOW somewhere between 10.5K - 10.75K. 11K on the upside is just possible, but I don't have much confidence in that, given current indicators. On the other hand, if we go into summer above 10.5, with declining energy prices, it could happen. I think the 10K floor has been tested well enough to be considered quite firm, and barring any unforseen calamity, there is no reason to expect it might fail to hold. In short, I expect the DOW will mostly plug along sideways for a while, with light-to-moderate uptrend.
0 Replies
 
squinney
 
  1  
Reply Thu 25 Aug, 2005 07:49 am
http://www.harpers.org/ExcerptNoneDare.html

Quote:
Bankruptcies in U.S. surge to record high


AUG. 24 5:03 P.M. ET The number of bankruptcies in the United States surged to an all-time high in the second quarter of this year as financially troubled consumers scrambled to file before a rewrite of bankruptcy laws takes full effect.

Bankruptcy filings to federal courts in the April-to-June quarter totaled 467,333, according to data released Wednesday from the Administrative Office of the U.S. Courts. That marked a record number of filings made in any quarter.

Of that total, most -- 458,597 -- were personal bankruptcy filings; the remaining 8,736 were businesses filing for bankruptcy, the data showed...
0 Replies
 
timberlandko
 
  1  
Reply Thu 25 Aug, 2005 10:02 am
Twaddle. Whatchya got there is the last gasp of the imperilled bankruptcy industry, its bottom-feeding lawyers scambling to suck up the last of the easy legal fees by rounding up as many deadbeats as they can corral before the free ride ends.

Quote:
Bankruptcy Filings Up as Law Takes Effect

By REUTERS
Filed at 11:26 a.m. ET

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Bankruptcy filings in U.S. federal courts jumped 16 percent in the quarter ended June 30 from the previous period as individuals rushed to file before a tougher law takes effect, a report from the Administrative Office of the U.S. Court showed on Wednesday.

The quarterly total was the highest level of bankruptcy filings on record under a data series dating to the March 1995 period, the first quarter for which figures are available, a spokeswoman at the Administrative Office said.

In the April-to-June quarter, just prior to and in the three months after a new federal bankruptcy act became law, filings totaled 467,333, up 66,000 from the previous period. Compared with a year ago, filings rose 11 percent, the Administrative Office said.

Filings in the 12 months ended June 30 rose 0.1 percent to 1.64 million from the comparable period a year ago.

The Administrative Office of the U.S. Court said the overall increase in filings was primarily fueled by a surge in Chapter 7 filings, which calls for the liquidation of assets but allows filers to keep some property, such as a primary residence.

A new law passed earlier this year makes it tougher for individuals to qualify for Chapter 7 bankruptcy, forcing them instead to file under Chapter 13, which places debtors in repayment plans. The act became law on April 20, although many of its provisions will take effect on Oct. 17.

Chapter 7 filings jumped 17.7 percent to 362,481 in the quarter ended June 30, which is the Judiciary's third quarter. For the year ended June 30, Chapter 7 filings totaled 1.2 million, up 2.5 percent from the year earlier.

Chapter 13 filings totaled 103,142 in the third quarter and 433,945 in the year ended June 30. The 12-month total was down 5.1 percent from the year earlier.

In the 12-month period, business filings dropped to 32,406, down 9.3 percent from 35,739 filings reported in the previous 12-month period.
0 Replies
 
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Thu 25 Aug, 2005 10:14 am
Gas prices at an all-time High, and going farther up.

Housing prices down 14% on average in the last three months.

Dow is basically stagnant.

October, the CC minimum payments double.

Don't expect a good Q4 this year; people are feeling the pinch.

Cycloptichorn
0 Replies
 
timberlandko
 
  1  
Reply Thu 25 Aug, 2005 10:23 am
Meanwhile, elsewhere in the real workl, a place not frequented by deadbeats, bottom-feeding lawyers, and Bushophobes:

Quote:
Jobless Claims Drop by 4,000 Last Week

By Martin Crutsinger
The Associated Press


WASHINGTON (AP) - The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits declined last week with the four-week average for people receiving benefits dropping to the lowest level in more than four years.
The Labor Department reported that 315,000 newly laid off workers applied for jobless benefits, a decline of 4,000 from the previous week, providing further evidence that solid economic growth is showing up in an improving labor market.

The four-week average for the total number of people receiving benefits dipped to 2.58 million last week, the lowest level for this figure since March 2001, the month the last recession began.

The drop of 4,000 benefit applications last week was slightly better than economists had been forecasting. Since early January, claims levels have remained well below 350,000 at levels that analysts view as signaling a healthy labor market.

That improvement was shown in the total number of people receiving benefits, which dropped to 2.58 million, based on a four-week moving average, down by 312,000 from the level of a year ago.

So far this year, a strong economy has generated an average of 191,000 new jobs per month, better than last year's average of 183,000. Employers created 207,000 jobs in July, which helped to keep the unemployment rate at a low level of 5 percent.

Many analysts believe that the overall economy, which grew at an annual rate of 3.4 percent in the spring, is powering ahead at an even faster pace above 4 percent in the current July-September quarter.

Forecasters believe the labor market will continue to improve as long as soaring energy costs don't jolt business and consumer confidence and cause cutbacks in spending. On Wednesday, the price of crude oil soared to a new all-time closing high of $67.10 per barrel.

So far, surging energy prices have not spilled over into a broadbased rise in inflation. This has allowed the Federal Reserve to continue raising interest rates at a gradual pace to make sure inflation does not get out of control.

AP-ES-08-25-05 0833EDT
0 Replies
 
kickycan
 
  1  
Reply Thu 25 Aug, 2005 10:25 am
I believe the economy is going to completely go to **** very soon. In the next six to nine months, the bottom will drop out. Trust me, it will happen. I KNOW it.

I had a psychic premonitory dream about it.
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timberlandko
 
  1  
Reply Thu 25 Aug, 2005 10:48 am
kickycan wrote:
I believe the economy is going to completely go to **** very soon. In the next six to nine months, the bottom will drop out. Trust me, it will happen. I KNOW it.

I had a psychic premonitory dream about it.


Flashback, kicky, and Redux

Deja-vu all over again - LOL
0 Replies
 
kickycan
 
  1  
Reply Thu 25 Aug, 2005 10:59 am
Ha! Just for the record, the Kerry comment was true, and the other one was just me messin' with you Bushie-types.

This one, however, is a prediction that came to me from the world of the spirits...HEED THEIR WARNING, MERE MORTALS!
0 Replies
 
kelticwizard
 
  1  
Reply Fri 26 Aug, 2005 01:52 pm
timberlandko wrote:
....and the fact remains this Administration has recorded a net job gain

A) Fer Chrissake, if you don't record a net job gain, you're doing horribly.

The population goes up every year. That's means more people require goods and services every year. So more people get hired every year. There are very, very few years since records were kept that there were no net job gains. The question is: how much? Did you keep up with the population increase? If you don't, you are doing terribly.

B) Bush has not only not kept up with population growth in the number of jobs created since he took office, there are now over 300,000 fewer people in the prime of their working lives employed than when he took over.

That's right. When Bush took over, there were over 300,000 more people in the 25-54 year old age group working then than are working now. Yet, the population growth in that same group has gone up 2.9% since Bush took over.

Why does the unemployment rate look good? Because if you were laid off three or four years ago and ran out of places to apply to, you are no longer considered "unemployed" and you don't count in the unemployment statistic.

Fact is, if Bush's job gains has been able to keep pace with inflation, 3.2 million more people in their prime working years would be employed than are employed now. In fact, if Bush's job gains were able to keep up with population growth, 3.9 million people of all ages would be employed than are working now.
0 Replies
 
kelticwizard
 
  1  
Reply Fri 26 Aug, 2005 02:06 pm
Here are the numbers. Check them yourself.


Dec 2000
25-54 yrs: 98.6 million employed


June 2005
25-54 yrs: 98.3 million employed.

Meanwhile, the population of 25 to 54 year olsds increased 2.9% in that time.

Number of jobs lost due to failure to keep pace with population growth: 3.2 million.

If Timberland or someone else can explain how it is a good economy when the population goes up but the number of people working in the prime of their lives declines, I would be eternally grateful.
0 Replies
 
timberlandko
 
  1  
Reply Fri 26 Aug, 2005 05:21 pm
kelticwizard wrote:
Here are the numbers. Check them yourself.


Dec 2000
25-54 yrs: 98.6 million employed


June 2005
25-54 yrs: 98.3 million employed.

Meanwhile, the population of 25 to 54 year olsds increased 2.9% in that time.

Number of jobs lost due to failure to keep pace with population growth: 3.2 million.

If Timberland or someone else can explain how it is a good economy when the population goes up but the number of people working in the prime of their lives declines, I would be eternally grateful.


No spin, just hard data - check it yourself:

US Civilian Labor Force (Thousands) Jan 2000-Jul 2005
http://img398.imageshack.us/img398/8694/CivilianLaborForceLevelThousands2000-2005.jpg

US Employment Level (Thousands) Jan 2000-Jul 2005
http://img398.imageshack.us/img398/4291/EmploymentLevelThousands2000-2005.jpg

US Unemployment Rate (%) Jan 2000-Jul 2005
http://img398.imageshack.us/img398/7928/UnemploymentRate2000-2005.jpg

US GDP, % Change, by Quarter, Q1 2000 - Q2 2005
http://img398.imageshack.us/img398/2485/USGDPChange2000-2005.jpg

US GDP Detail, Full Year, 2000 - 20004
http://img398.imageshack.us/img398/2848/USGDPBreakdown2000-2004.jpg

US Personal Income Detail, Full-Year 2000-2004
http://img398.imageshack.us/img398/478/USPersonalIncome2000-2004.jpg

All data: US Dept. of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics

Employment, GDP, Productivity, and Personal Income up, unemployment down - amazing some folks are depressed by the fact the US Economy is robust, expanding sustainably, and the envy of the world. No wonder the Bushophobes are angry; they just can't catch a break.
0 Replies
 
timberlandko
 
  1  
Reply Thu 29 Dec, 2005 11:04 pm
OK - tomorrow is the last trading day of the year. Lets see how far off my guess was. No fair calling it 'till Market Close, now.

Back on May 12, [url=http://www.able2know.com/forums/viewtopic.php?p=1333557#1333557]timber[/url] wrote:
Been there, done that Here ... with the lookback Here.

For this year, I don't see a whole lotta movement - I expect at year end we'll have a DOW somewhere between 10.5K - 10.75K. 11K on the upside is just possible, but I don't have much confidence in that, given current indicators. On the other hand, if we go into summer above 10.5, with declining energy prices, it could happen. I think the 10K floor has been tested well enough to be considered quite firm, and barring any unforseen calamity, there is no reason to expect it might fail to hold. In short, I expect the DOW will mostly plug along sideways for a while, with light-to-moderate uptrend.
0 Replies
 
timberlandko
 
  1  
Reply Sat 31 Dec, 2005 01:57 am
OK - so I pegged the Year-End Dow at 10.5 to 10.75K, the Year-End Close was 10717.50 - close enough, I'd say.
0 Replies
 
okie
 
  1  
Reply Sat 31 Dec, 2005 02:34 am
timberlandko, you seem to have a pretty good fix on the economy. Should I buy some stock? What will DJIA be at end of 2006. By the way, the economy looks good to me. I've never seen so many people Christmas shopping, and a COMPUSA I went into looked like it had been riddled in some areas almost like a flea market because of depleted stocks of equipment, digital cameras, etc. I don't know where people are making their money, but they sure seem to be spending it.
0 Replies
 
timberlandko
 
  1  
Reply Sat 31 Dec, 2005 05:52 am
Too early yet to make a reasoned estimate for next year, but I don't see any reason to expect any sort of downturn. As ar as investing, thats up to you - watch the issues that interest you, learn about the firms behind the stocks, and make your choices. Don't play with money you can't afford to lose, spread your risk, and figure on longterm holdings, as opposed to quick profits, and you'll do fine. Just about any investing is better than no investing, but remember its a discipline, not a game. You want a money game, go to Vegas.
0 Replies
 
 

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