114
   

Where is the US economy headed?

 
 
georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Fri 12 Aug, 2011 10:56 am
@revelette,
revelette wrote:

Why are these companies and others not hiring? They are paying lower taxes, they are making a profit, yet they don't hire because they want to save for a rainy day? How do they expect the economy to remain sunny if most of the work force in the country is out of work?


In the first place, they are not "paying lower taxes". No significant changes to the corporate tax structure have occurred nationally, though the IRS has definately become harsher in areas subject to interpretation.

Corporations hire either in response to increased demand, or as part of an investment in expanded services, production or geographic reach. Demand generally is not increasing, and uncertainty about the future is seriously inhibiting investment.

Unlike Cyclo, I can't speak for all corporate boards, but the three on which I sit are concerned in rough order about; increasing energy and commodity prices; uncertain future access to capital; new financial regulatory compliance costs; the still unfolding changes to health care costs associated with Obamacare; generally low expectations of continued economic growth nationally; aggressive government action in support of labor unions - the Boeing example set a new (and scary) standard in this area; stll pending new EPA rules on CO2 emissions ; increased taxes (in some areas) and a general perception of instability and unpredictability in financial markets. All of these factors make reliable forecasts of a positive return on investment very hard to produce.

To deter investment all that is required is the inability to forecast a positive return. We certainly have that in spades right now.

spendius
 
  1  
Reply Fri 12 Aug, 2011 01:06 pm
@georgeob1,
Quote:
All of these factors make reliable forecasts of a positive return on investment very hard to produce.


Which is as it should be George. It sorts out the has-beens from the movers and shakers.

You make your corporate boards seem to be not in control of their own destiny and waiting for someone to make it easier.

At what point do you think it would be best for national growth to cease? It obviously cannot go on forever. How high do you want to pile the stuff up?

You sound like a waif begging on a street corner to a real capitalist.
georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Fri 12 Aug, 2011 01:13 pm
@spendius,
That was a little puffed up, don't you think?

Investment by businesses hasn't ceased: it is merely lower than usual, and lower than otherwise might be indicated by the average cash levels held by corporations. This was merely san attempt to illustrate reasons for the relative change.
0 Replies
 
reasoning logic
 
  1  
Reply Fri 12 Aug, 2011 01:18 pm
@spendius,
Spendius what is your view point?
What should be done in the US and around the world to make it as close to a utopia as we possibly can?
Not that I think you believe in utopias but what is it that we should be doing?
In layman's terms please! "Without the drama! Wink
spendius
 
  1  
Reply Fri 12 Aug, 2011 01:33 pm
@reasoning logic,
I have no idea rl. I agree with Dylan--"We're going all the way 'till the wheels fall off and burn."
reasoning logic
 
  1  
Reply Fri 12 Aug, 2011 01:42 pm
@spendius,
OK now include this view point that Dylan holds in your next reply so that we will not have to guess about what you mean!
spendius
 
  1  
Reply Fri 12 Aug, 2011 01:47 pm
@reasoning logic,
It's self explanatory. "There ain't no goin' back"--Foot of Pride.
reasoning logic
 
  1  
Reply Fri 12 Aug, 2011 01:57 pm
@spendius,
Quote:
It's self explanatory


To who's self, yours? Spendius we do not all see things the way you do!

You normally give an artistic view point of what you have to say why not this time?
spendius
 
  1  
Reply Fri 12 Aug, 2011 01:59 pm
@reasoning logic,
That was a perfectly expressed artistic point of view.

"The pump don't work 'cos the vandals took the handles"

reasoning logic
 
  1  
Reply Fri 12 Aug, 2011 02:04 pm
@spendius,
Quote:
That was a perfectly expressed artistic point of view.


OK maybe it was but do you think that all of your audience is artistic?


You mentioned Dylan now help those of us who are artistically retarded to understand your view point! Wink
JPB
 
  1  
Reply Fri 12 Aug, 2011 03:06 pm
I can only imagine what the numbers would be after the the S&P downgrade.

Quote:
A widely watched survey of consumer sentiment fell to its lowest level since the stagflation days of the early 1980s, largely because of disgust over political brinksmanship in Washington that brought the Treasury within days, if not hours, of a government default.

A separate survey showed a huge spike in the percentage of Americans who believe there is more bad economic news in the future, with nearly 70 percent of adults saying the worst is yet to come in a financial downturn that has been dragging on for four years, whether or not it is technically described as a recession.

Yet another survey found that business confidence has declined sharply around the world amid signs of a slowdown in growth, questions about the growing U.S. debt, and fresh concerns about debt.

The preliminary August reading on the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan's index on consumer sentiment came in at 54.9, a sharp drop from last month’s 63.7 and the lowest level since May 1980. The performance of politicians in Washington was clearly on the mind of survey respondents.

"Never before in the history of the surveys have so many consumers spontaneously mentioned negative aspects of the government's role," survey director Richard Curtin said in a statement.

A second national survey, the McClatchy-Marist poll, showed that 68 percent of Americans believe the worst of the country’s economic conditions are yet to come, while only 27 percent say the worst is behind us. The survey showed a sharp increase in pessimism. Just last month only 53 percent of those surveyed said the worst is yet to come.

Both the Marist and University of Michigan polls were conducted BEFORE Standard & Poor’s downgraded U.S. government debt last week Source
spendius
 
  -1  
Reply Fri 12 Aug, 2011 03:11 pm
@reasoning logic,
I certainly do expect A2Kers to have enough artistic appreciation for those simple examples.
spendius
 
  1  
Reply Fri 12 Aug, 2011 03:16 pm
@JPB,
Political brinkswomanship is the nature of things these days. If anybody wins by too much then they have promised more than they needed to.

The solution is to give your next government a proper mandate.
0 Replies
 
reasoning logic
 
  0  
Reply Fri 12 Aug, 2011 03:16 pm
@spendius,
Really Spendius, Can you be for once intellectually honest with yourself?

You should know with certainty that we do not always see things as you do!
So what is so bad with keeping the drama out of things?
spendius
 
  0  
Reply Fri 12 Aug, 2011 03:18 pm
@reasoning logic,
I never said that keeping the drama down was a good thing. It's the spice of life isn't it.
reasoning logic
 
  0  
Reply Fri 12 Aug, 2011 03:20 pm
@spendius,
I have never met a drama king before!

I guess that there is a first for everything! Rolling Eyes
0 Replies
 
hawkeye10
 
  0  
Reply Fri 12 Aug, 2011 10:14 pm
@spendius,
spendius wrote:

I never said that keeping the drama down was a good thing. It's the spice of life isn't it.
When it comes from women yes, but I really dont need to get drama from men...leave the behaving like a woman to the women I say.
JPB
 
  1  
Reply Sat 13 Aug, 2011 08:41 am
I found this chart interesting. I'm surprised at the number of voluntary quits we're still seeing.

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-B3xY-ky4YXI/TkKUbz3q2WI/AAAAAAAAKns/GyYAYc6AwB4/s320/JOLTSJune2011.jpg
0 Replies
 
JPB
 
  1  
Reply Sat 13 Aug, 2011 08:46 am
This one shows the unemployment rate by state as a function of the max unemployment rate in the 2007-09 recession.
http://cr4re.com/charts/chart-images/StateUnemployJune2011.jpg

A couple states get chopped off. The full graph can be seen here
http://cr4re.com/charts/charts.html#category=Employment&chart=StateUnemployJune2011.jpg

0 Replies
 
spendius
 
  1  
Reply Sat 13 Aug, 2011 09:12 am
@hawkeye10,
Quote:
When it comes from women yes, but I really dont need to get drama from men...leave the behaving like a woman to the women I say.


Which comes very close to the Veblen idea of those who go under the crude, biological definition of men. You did get the drama.
0 Replies
 
 

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