114
   

Where is the US economy headed?

 
 
georgeob1
 
  2  
Reply Tue 21 Jun, 2011 05:30 pm
@Cycloptichorn,
Cycloptichorn wrote:

Let's be honest, though. Bankers and policy makers (in the EU or America) don't make decisions because they are concerned about the effects on working-class folks, they do do based on the effects felt by themselves and their wealthy (or powerful, hi Spendi!) friends.


Perhaps so. However, neither have I observed that "working class folks" make their decisions with the welfare of "bankers and policy-makers" or the wealthy and powerful in mind. They are all alike in the pursuit of their self-interest.

There appears to be a level of disagreement among the major EU nations concerning whether the Greek bondholders (not all of which are banks) should take a haircut, with the German government until recently insisting on at least a deferral of some interest payments and/or modified restructuring of debt, depending on how you describe it. It is just a fact that German exposure to Greek debt is less than that of France, but there are other elements involved here as well including long-standing national differences on issues such as national thrift and monetary policy. Certainly self-interest is part of it, but I think you are wrongly trivializing a more complex issue.
georgeob1
 
  3  
Reply Tue 21 Jun, 2011 05:31 pm
@spendius,
spendius wrote:

There we go. A nice piece of self-flattery George. That you are less credulous and more intelligent that even "informed" people is not something I would bet two sticks of rhubarb on.

Go **** yourself Spendi.
georgeob1
 
  2  
Reply Tue 21 Jun, 2011 05:35 pm
@Cycloptichorn,
Cycloptichorn wrote:

Latvia and Estonia saw what, a 20% contraction of their GDP? You can't seriously expect Greek citizens to go for an additional reduction of that scope during a time of great crisis already!


I've spend a lot of time in Greece. I don't expect a lot of adult behavior from them.

However, it is odd that they alone have been so reluctant to face facts that other nations from Iceland, to Ireland, Latvia and Estonia have done without all the whining and riots.
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Tue 21 Jun, 2011 05:37 pm
@georgeob1,
georgeob1 wrote:

Cycloptichorn wrote:

Let's be honest, though. Bankers and policy makers (in the EU or America) don't make decisions because they are concerned about the effects on working-class folks, they do do based on the effects felt by themselves and their wealthy (or powerful, hi Spendi!) friends.


Perhaps so. However, neither have I observed that "working class folks" make their decisions with the welfare of "bankers and policy-makers" or the wealthy and powerful in mind. They are all alike in the pursuit of their self-interest.


Sure, but one group has the power to make decisions that affect the other group, and one does not. You posit some sort of equality here that doesn't exist. Theoretically politicians, bankers and the rich have a responsibility to not only think about themselves, but about their fellow man; but we all know what a joke that concept is, so much so that it would be considered to be embarrassingly naive to ever state such a thing out loud.

Quote:
There appears to be a level of disagreement among the major EU nations concerning whether the Greek bondholders (not all of which are banks) should take a haircut, with the German government until recently insisting on at least a deferral of some interest payments and/or modified restructuring of debt, depending on how you describe it. It is just a fact that German exposure to Greek debt is less than that of France, but there are other elements involved here as well including long-standing national differences on issues such as national thrift and monetary policy. Certainly self-interest is part of it, but I think you are wrongly trivializing a more complex issue.


Any issue can be argued to be as complex as it needs to be - to serve someone's interest, that is. Apply Occam's razor to the problem and you cut through a bunch of that crap really quick.

Cycloptichorn
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Tue 21 Jun, 2011 05:38 pm
@georgeob1,
georgeob1 wrote:

Cycloptichorn wrote:

Latvia and Estonia saw what, a 20% contraction of their GDP? You can't seriously expect Greek citizens to go for an additional reduction of that scope during a time of great crisis already!


I've spend a lot of time in Greece. I don't expect a lot of adult behavior from them.

However, it is odd that they alone have been so reluctant to face facts that other nations from Iceland, to Ireland, Latvia and Estonia have done without all the whining and riots.


Well, half the reason people are rioting is that they feel like some plutocrats got them all into this mess; making decisions that most of the country didn't support and using money they got from EU banks to basically buy elections.

I wouldn't be so quick to put Ireland on that list. If the elections hadn't gone the way they did, I think you would have seen a great deal of unrest there.

Cycloptichorn
georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Tue 21 Jun, 2011 05:47 pm
@Cycloptichorn,
Cycloptichorn wrote:

Any issue can be argued to be as complex as it needs to be - to serve someone's interest, that is. Apply Occam's razor to the problem and you cut through a bunch of that crap really quick.

Cycloptichorn


"Occam's razor" is merely an old metaphor that has some general utility, particularly at the extremes. However some issues are simply more complex than you acknowledge. For example, it is the French government that has argued forcefully against any restructuring of the Greek debt - not their bankers. Major enterprises, including banks, in France generally involve some level of governmental governance and it is sometimes difficult to know where one ends and the other begins. However there do appear to be some valid concerns about spreading crises in undercapitalized European banks that could spread the problem and its bad effects. It isn't necessarily only the greed of bankers.

The fact that bankers make a profit on a loan does not absolve the borrower of the obligation to honor the contract he signed to repay the loan.
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Tue 21 Jun, 2011 05:54 pm
@georgeob1,
Quote:
For example, it is the French government that has argued forcefully against any restructuring of the Greek debt - not their bankers.


There's a difference?

Quote:
Major enterprises, including banks, in France generally involve some level of governmental governance and it is sometimes difficult to know where one ends and the other begins.


Yeah, like I thought, no big difference. There isn't much of one here either.

Quote:
However there do appear to be some valid concerns about spreading crises in undercapitalized European banks that could spread the problem and its bad effects. It isn't necessarily only the greed of bankers.


Well, wait; those other banks are under-capitalized why, exactly? It doesn't have anything to do with a series of risky decisions on THEIR parts? For which those banks made a lot of money during the 2001-2008 period? I almost believe that it does. Which would mean that it really is the greed of bankers and their rich clients at the end of the day. Right?

Quote:
The fact that bankers make a profit on a loan does not absolve the borrower of the obligation to honor the contract he signed to repay the loan.


Well, I agree with that. But the risk is shared EQUALLY by both partners; that's why banks make PROFITS off of loans. You can't support the concept of lending for profit without supporting the concept that those loans occasionally fail and those who handed them out suffer the consequences.

Cycloptichorn
georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Tue 21 Jun, 2011 06:03 pm
@Cycloptichorn,
Cycloptichorn wrote:

[Well, half the reason people are rioting is that they feel like some plutocrats got them all into this mess; making decisions that most of the country didn't support and using money they got from EU banks to basically buy elections.
They weren't plutocrats: they were the leaders of the Socialist government.

Cycloptichorn wrote:

I wouldn't be so quick to put Ireland on that list. If the elections hadn't gone the way they did, I think you would have seen a great deal of unrest there.


I think many Irish have come to regret the government guarantee of their banks, and even more the collusion of Fianna Fail with some bankers and their own excessive enthusiasm for a bubble that now looks all too illusory. However, most are determined to retain the low tax rates and growth enhancing policies that fuelled their economic transformation. They are struggling through a very difficult period, but without the histrionics and denial that so characterize the Greek "response".
reasoning logic
 
  1  
Reply Tue 21 Jun, 2011 06:26 pm
@hawkeye10,
Very good point!
0 Replies
 
reasoning logic
 
  0  
Reply Tue 21 Jun, 2011 06:28 pm
@hawkeye10,
If they do it to their own government what makes you think they will not do it to the rest of the word? I could have this wrong but that is how I learn!
0 Replies
 
reasoning logic
 
  0  
Reply Tue 21 Jun, 2011 06:34 pm
@georgeob1,
You may be speaking Spendius's language now, Not that I agree with it but at least I know that he will understand it!
0 Replies
 
reasoning logic
 
  1  
Reply Tue 21 Jun, 2011 07:35 pm
@georgeob1,
Quote:
They weren't plutocrats: they were the leaders of the Socialist government.



Do you call this being social? I would think the opposite! Do not get me wrong because even if people are social it does not mean that they will not make mistakes.

I would think that this crises has something completely different to do with than being social because truly intelligent social people would not allow this to happen in my opinion!
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Tue 21 Jun, 2011 07:52 pm
@Cycloptichorn,
What surprises me most about the Greek bailout is that France and Germany are encouraging private investors to buy Greek bonds. That's a sure way to lose your investment. How many people are lining up to buy Greek bonds?

They are throwing good money into an investment that's impossible to sustain for any length of time; it's only a matter of time. Greece's economy is shrinking while their debt continues to grow. They will not be able to pay back on those loans; the world's economy is shrinking. The Greek bonds are paying over 6% interest belongs on the laffer curve; they should have offered it at 12% to attract the greedy.
0 Replies
 
roger
 
  1  
Reply Tue 21 Jun, 2011 07:53 pm
@reasoning logic,
reasoning logic wrote:

Quote:
They weren't plutocrats: they were the leaders of the Socialist government.

Do you call this being social? I would think the opposite!


If you are at all serious when you write something like this, you have a very odd understanding of the language.

reasoning logic
 
  0  
Reply Tue 21 Jun, 2011 08:03 pm
@roger,
Are you saying that The suffix -ist does not indicates a person involved in the activity or field that you were implying? Socialist is a word used by many that use it to degrade what it means!
roger
 
  2  
Reply Tue 21 Jun, 2011 11:55 pm
@reasoning logic,
Oh Hell! If you want it to mean people who invite lots of neighbors to outdoor cookouts, just go ahead.

reasoning logic
 
  0  
Reply Wed 22 Jun, 2011 01:14 am
@roger,
That's more like it! lol
Social is a fuzzy concept, it can have many different meanings!
0 Replies
 
spendius
 
  0  
Reply Wed 22 Jun, 2011 04:43 am
@georgeob1,
Quote:
Go **** yourself Spendi.


I'd probably be a billionaire if I could manage that George.
0 Replies
 
spendius
 
  0  
Reply Wed 22 Jun, 2011 04:56 am
@Cycloptichorn,
Quote:
Sure, but one group has the power to make decisions that affect the other group, and one does not.


That depends on how angry the "workers" get.

Quote:
Apply Occam's razor to the problem and you cut through a bunch of that crap really quick.


For your own satisfaction you must mean. Do you work in the demand side of the economy Cyclo?

George's remark was a gross understatement.
0 Replies
 
Thomas
 
  1  
Reply Wed 22 Jun, 2011 07:19 am
@georgeob1,
georgeob1 wrote:
Cycloptichorn wrote:
Sure they do. They can print all the Euros they want. They simply don't want to go that route, because it waters down the fortunes of the richest and most powerful.Cycloptichorn

Oh I think working class retirees in France wouldn't like it much either - it would take money (purchasing power) out of their pockets too.

I'm pretty sure the pensions or France's working-class retirees are indexed to inflation, just as Social Security recipients are in the US. Their purchasing power doesn't depend on how much money the ECB prints.

georgeob1 wrote:
It is worth remembering that a major element of the crisis is the fradulent financial data provided to the EU by previous Greek governments. Whather this was something that was readily detectable by other EU members at the time is something I don't really know. I suspect it was a detectable but politically unpleasant prospect that was ignored to the detriment of all.

That part is true. In the run-up to 2004, when Greece joined the Union, some high-ranking German politicians said they weren't buying. The rest of the political class considered those remarks scandalous---the scandal being those politicians, not the Greek government's numbers.
 

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