114
   

Where is the US economy headed?

 
 
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Wed 22 Jun, 2011 07:44 am
@Thomas,
Thomas wrote:
That part is true. In the run-up to 2004, when Greece joined the Union, ...

I'm not sure, what you mean by the "run-up to 2004", Thomas.

[Greece joined the EU in 1981. In 2001, Greece became a member of the EU's economic and monetary union (aka "Euro area").
The 2004 Summer Olympics were in Greece (Athens). Wink ]
Thomas
 
  1  
Reply Wed 22 Jun, 2011 09:23 am
@Walter Hinteler,
Walter Hinteler wrote:

Thomas wrote:
That part is true. In the run-up to 2004, when Greece joined the Union, ...

I'm not sure, what you mean by the "run-up to 2004", Thomas.

[Greece joined the EU in 1981. In 2001, Greece became a member of the EU's economic and monetary union (aka "Euro area").
The 2004 Summer Olympics were in Greece (Athens). Wink ]

I'm sorry, I meant to say "when Greece joined the Euro-zone". That's what happened in 2004.
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Wed 22 Jun, 2011 09:37 am
@Thomas,
Sure?

To what I know and could find,
- in 1999, Greece was left out of the Eurozone for failing to meet the EU's economic criteria,
- in 2001, Greece joined the Eurozone, becoming the 12th country with the Euro as currency ...
Cycloptichorn
 
  2  
Reply Wed 22 Jun, 2011 09:51 am
@georgeob1,
georgeob1 wrote:

Cycloptichorn wrote:

[Well, half the reason people are rioting is that they feel like some plutocrats got them all into this mess; making decisions that most of the country didn't support and using money they got from EU banks to basically buy elections.
They weren't plutocrats: they were the leaders of the Socialist government.


Shocked wow! You're the last person I would have expected to make such a statement; as if the two weren't perfectly compatible with one another.
Quote:

Cycloptichorn wrote:

I wouldn't be so quick to put Ireland on that list. If the elections hadn't gone the way they did, I think you would have seen a great deal of unrest there.


I think many Irish have come to regret the government guarantee of their banks, and even more the collusion of Fianna Fail with some bankers and their own excessive enthusiasm for a bubble that now looks all too illusory. However, most are determined to retain the low tax rates and growth enhancing policies that fuelled their economic transformation. They are struggling through a very difficult period, but without the histrionics and denial that so characterize the Greek "response".
[/quote]

Double Shocked - are you honestly insisting that it was 'low tax rates and growth-enhancing policies' which pushed Ireland up? The truth is that it was mostly speculative investment in a real-estate bubble - there was little to no ACTUAL growth in their economy over the period of time we are discussing. Certainly not lasting and sustainable growth.

F'ing amazing that you can ignore that and just keep parroting the right-wing line on low taxes, over and over again. It's like there's no consequence for ever being wrong with you guys.

Cycloptichorn
georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Wed 22 Jun, 2011 10:02 am
@Cycloptichorn,
Cycloptichorn wrote:

Double Shocked - are you honestly insisting that it was 'low tax rates and growth-enhancing policies' which pushed Ireland up? The truth is that it was mostly speculative investment in a real-estate bubble - there was little to no ACTUAL growth in their economy over the period of time we are discussing. Certainly not lasting and sustainable growth.

F'ing amazing that you can ignore that and just keep parroting the right-wing line on low taxes, over and over again. It's like there's no consequence for ever being wrong with you guys.

Cycloptichorn


What period of time were we discussing ?? My reference was to the policies that took the Republic from Portugual-like poverty with a GDP/capita of about $20K to 6th or 7th in the world with a GDP/capita of about $60K and well ahead of both France and the UK - between 1990 and 2010. They had a severe housing bubble that touched all elements of the country and saw the attendant collapse of overleveraged banks. They're taking some very hard medicine right now (without much complaint), and have resisted the pressures of EU bureaucrats to create the kind of regulatory and social welfare policies that are causing economic sclerosis throughout Europe (and which the UK government is trying to undo now). They'll be back soon.

Perhaps you should check your facts.
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Wed 22 Jun, 2011 10:16 am
@georgeob1,
Quote:
They had a severe housing bubble that touched all elements of the country and saw the attendant collapse of overleveraged banks.


Again with this bland 'over-leveraged' banks line. What exactly do you think this means? It means that Irish banks, flush with international capital, played the CDO and CDS game just like US banks. This lead to a large amount of money flooding into the country, most of which has flooded right back out. It is a direct result of greed, the same greed that caused American firms to do the exact same thing here - with the same results.

Unemployment is at a 16-year high right now in Ireland, and if you want to see the sorts of jobs which were created during the bubble, all you have to do is see what sort of jobs are being lost:

http://www.finfacts.ie/artman/uploads/4/Irish-employment-sector-june162011.jpg

The policies you champion were no more succesful for Ireland than they were for the US. And the results have been exactly the same: unsustainable growth, a total unwillingness of industry to 'self-regulate,' and new wealth creation concentrated on the rich and upper-classes. This isn't a recipe for 'success' - at least, most people wouldn't say that.

Quote:
They'll be back soon.


Wishful thinking. You let me know when there's any actual evidence that this is true. From what I can see, their economy will continue to decline for a long time. This year alone, government borrowing there will equal ALL tax receipts gathered....

Cycloptichorn
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Wed 22 Jun, 2011 10:21 am
Separately, I note that treasury notes are STILL trading below 3%. The Bond Vigilantes are sleeping off their hangovers in the field somewhere, and certainly are not interested in the US at this time of great instability in the EU and elsewhere. Which leads me to ask - what the hell is the FED doing about unemployment????

Cycloptichorn
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Wed 22 Jun, 2011 10:30 am
@Cycloptichorn,
Nothing! They do everything ass-backwards anyway.

If the feds had made the right decisions about "inflation," gold prices wouldn't be at the prices we see today; it's all speculation with no foundation.

70% of our economy is made up from consumer spending; when the feds keeps bond rates so low, it only adds to speculation on gold and commodities that doesn't produce anything.

Speculation in housing is essentially disappeared; people have been thrown into chaos by low interest rates. That was another speculation industry that destroyed itself.

The feds are too stupid, and they try to control inflation in all the wrong ways.
Thomas
 
  1  
Reply Wed 22 Jun, 2011 10:33 am
@Walter Hinteler,
Walter Hinteler wrote:
Sure?

No. A Google search yielded a BBC report that convinced me I had the dates all wrong.

I now think the Greece-septicaemic discussions I had in mind happened during the 1998 election campaign in Germany, when the Kohl administration was still in power, and when finance minister Theo Waigel (CSU) and people around him argued against cutting Greece any slack with the Maastricht criteria. As a result, Greece wasn't among the first members of the Euro-zone when its started on January 1, 1999. In 2001 it was admitted, in part because they had fudged their numbers, because the new German administration was somewhat more lenient.

So, having read up on it, I realize that I got the date wrong, and that the CSU's scepticism did have consequences for Greece. But I stand by my recollection that their scepticism was unpopular, and let them be painted as perpetrators of German arrogance toward fellow Europeans
0 Replies
 
georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Wed 22 Jun, 2011 10:35 am
@Cycloptichorn,
Cycloptichorn wrote:

georgeob1 wrote:

Cycloptichorn wrote:

[Well, half the reason people are rioting is that they feel like some plutocrats got them all into this mess; making decisions that most of the country didn't support and using money they got from EU banks to basically buy elections.
They weren't plutocrats: they were the leaders of the Socialist government.


Shocked wow! You're the last person I would have expected to make such a statement; as if the two weren't perfectly compatible with one another.


Well, plutocracy = rule by the wealthy, and socialism imply very different things.

I'll readily agree that socialism rarely delivers on its promises.
georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Wed 22 Jun, 2011 10:42 am
@Cycloptichorn,
For all its current troubles, Ireland today is far better off than it was 22 years ago, and it is significant that, even in the midst of the current difficuties, the Irish people and government resisted attempts by the EU nations to impose EU norms for taxation and social welfare on them - they prefer freedom and initiative.

The unemployment graphic you pasted points out that unemployment and economic stagnation are highly concentrated in the construction sector, which was the overheated core of the collapsed bubble. They will be back soon.
spendius
 
  1  
Reply Wed 22 Jun, 2011 10:44 am
@Cycloptichorn,
Quote:
- what the hell is the FED doing about unemployment????


How do you know that getting it down is a good thing economically?

You failed to answer my question Cyclo about whether you work on the supply or demand side. So I assume it's the latter. The "Eaters of the Budget" Stendhal called that.

There's no "instability" in the EU. You are failing to take account of Media's need to dramatise everything. Watch the Tour de France. See the towns and villages roll by and the crops.
cicerone imposter
 
  0  
Reply Wed 22 Jun, 2011 10:44 am
@georgeob1,
I think the us of the word "socialism" is being misused. Socialism is when the ownership of everything or most is owned by the government; that has never worked whether in Russia, China, North Korea, or Cuba.

All the other countries are a form of (democratic) republics, capitalism, and tyrants (repressive governments) and/or its combination.
spendius
 
  1  
Reply Wed 22 Jun, 2011 10:45 am
@cicerone imposter,
What a load of ignorant fanny that is ci.
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Wed 22 Jun, 2011 10:46 am
@spendius,
spendius wrote:

Quote:
- what the hell is the FED doing about unemployment????


How do you know that getting it down is a good thing economically?


I don't know how to properly respond to such an ignorant statement.

Quote:
You failed to answer my question Cyclo about whether you work on the supply or demand side. So I assume it's the latter. The "Eaters of the Budget" Stendhal called that.


How do you define 'demand side' and 'supply side?' Specifically.

Quote:
There's no "instability" in the EU. You are failing to take account of Media's need to dramatise everything. Watch the Tour de France. See the towns and villages roll by and the crops.


Sure, keep telling yourself that Laughing Doesn't matter any to me.

Cycloptichorn
cicerone imposter
 
  0  
Reply Wed 22 Jun, 2011 10:46 am
@spendius,
Your declaration has no value, spendi. You must explain why you believe what you believe.
0 Replies
 
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Wed 22 Jun, 2011 10:47 am
@georgeob1,
georgeob1 wrote:

For all its current troubles, Ireland today is far better off than it was 22 years ago, and it is significant that, even in the midst of the current difficuties, the Irish people and government resisted attempts by the EU nations to impose EU norms for taxation and social welfare on them - they prefer freedom and initiative.

The unemployment graphic you pasted points out that unemployment and economic stagnation are highly concentrated in the construction sector, which was the overheated core of the collapsed bubble. They will be back soon.


Hopes and wishes ya got there, George. That's it. I know you have a special love for Ireland, so I'm not trying to knock the place; but I doubt what you say is true, very much. I guess we'll see in a few years whether the current trends reverse themselves, but I see no persuasive evidence that they are going to do so anytime soon.

Cycloptichorn
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Wed 22 Jun, 2011 10:47 am
@Cycloptichorn,
spendi guages how the economy is doing by watching a bike race. ROLFMAO
0 Replies
 
spendius
 
  1  
Reply Wed 22 Jun, 2011 10:50 am
@cicerone imposter,
Look ci. If you want to spout drivel like that go on a kiddywinks site. Geopolitics for the under 5s. Can you not see how insulting it is to us that you feel the need to instruct us in that ridiculous manner. The world is not a toy fort.
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Wed 22 Jun, 2011 10:53 am
@spendius,
spendi, You're the king of drivel. Your content has no meaning or value.

If you wish to challenge anything I post, you must state why. Otherwise, it's just drivel. You also lack in common sense and logic. That's the reason why you post so much bull shite on these boards; you are clueless.
0 Replies
 
 

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