114
   

Where is the US economy headed?

 
 
Thomas
 
  1  
Reply Thu 16 Jun, 2011 07:30 pm
@georgeob1,
georgeob1 wrote:
I believe you are discounting two important things here; (1) the fact that there is a time delay between the inception of government policy or Presidential statements and the economic effects; and (2) the trend (up or down) of economic indicators under an individual President or administration is more reflective both the real results of their actions and the public's reaction to them.

Ah. That must be why you're such an enthusiastic Bill-Clinton supporter.
georgeob1
 
  2  
Reply Thu 16 Jun, 2011 07:40 pm
@Thomas,
Well he presided over the dot.com boom and (at the end of his 2nd term) bust. I am not inclined to either credit him with the first or to blame him for the second. However, he - and the Republican Congress - which governed together at the time, deserve credit for reducing much abused (and sometimed positively destructive) welfare entitlements and restraining government spending. The Reagan-earned early collapse of the Soviet Union enabled significant reductions in the defense budget, which also helped a great deal.

You have noted our high level of public debt during WWII and our speedy recovery from it as an indicator that deficits don't matter. However you have done so without acknowledging some very important differences on which I wish you would comment;

1. Our WWII debt was at most a three year phenomenon - our deficits and total debt rose rapidly to unprecedented heights and then at war's end the deficits turned to surplus. Now, due to projected entitlement cost growth we face near permanent structural deficits with no evident prospects of eliminating them even with significan tax increases unless significant spending cuts are made.

2. After WWII we had virtually the world's only intact inductrial plant with which to serve the pent up consumer demands of a major part opf the world. Few were able to compete with us until they had rebuilt their own economies, and our exports soared. Today we face serious competition from China which with yet another 400,000 of underemployed people can continue to violate the normal laws of economics for a long time as it supports an export oriented monetary policy and buys our bonds to sustain it.

3. During WWII our public debt was held by Americans and after the war was an asset to them in sustaining demand for our goods and services - mour own economic development and ownership of new material assets. Today our public debt is largely held by foreigners abd sovereign foreign nations - as assetsd for themselves and a lever for control of our economic lives.

Overall not a good comparison I think.
roger
 
  1  
Reply Thu 16 Jun, 2011 07:45 pm
@Irishk,
Can't explain the Porsche, but I've got some insights into a few other purchases that were considered scandalous.

For a time in the later '60s, I worked in a toolroom supporting 3rd & 4th echelon Army aviation maintenance. Some of the parts catalogs were 5 inches thick, and there were lists of tools and fixtures we were required to have on stock. If a number equated to a common 6" screwdriver, we had to order it. Period. And we had no way of knowing what that screwdriver cost, and it wouldn't matter if we did. We had some really expensive looking items that no one had the slightest idea what they might be used for. I think the shear size of the organization combined with no allowance for individual judgement insured there would be a certain amount of newsworthy purchases.
Thomas
 
  3  
Reply Thu 16 Jun, 2011 07:46 pm
@georgeob1,
I usually think Cycloptichorn is overstating his case when he argues against you. But this is an exception. You really have sealed off your political convictions against empirical evidence. You know which party's presidents you like, and you'll just keep moving your goalposts until they look like they're scoring, and their opponents look like they're missing. I take no pleasure in observing this. I'll just rest my case on this point.
0 Replies
 
cicerone imposter
 
  2  
Reply Thu 16 Jun, 2011 08:59 pm
@georgeob1,
george, We've known about the impending shortage in the trust fund for both social security and Medicare, but the government has not addressed this problem for over a decade. The solutions were simple; increase the age of benefit, and/or increase the tax base. GW Bush talked about privatizing social security, and Ryan wanted to change both with his so-called budget. He wanted to change Medicare into a voucher system, but the American people caught on to his "cut cost" rhetoric by understanding what he was planning to do; take away their security.

Most of the GOP ran away from this idea; they knew this would be the end of their political career. They haven't spoken about this, because they know the American people are against it.

The next chapter in this saga is going to be very interesting - indeed!

georgeob1
 
  2  
Reply Thu 16 Jun, 2011 09:12 pm
@cicerone imposter,
No argument there. However Social Security is the least of our entitlement problems. It is relatively well funded and easily fixable, as you noted. The real - and seriously intractable - issues are Medicare and Medicaid.

The first will bankrupt the Federal Government, while the second will bankrupt the states. We have seen the same general refusal to seriously engage both programs by both political parties - though the Democrat refusal is by far the most categorical. Indeed they are cynically painting themselves as "the defenders of Medicare as we know it" (after wiping out the Medicare Advantage Program), and trying to make political capital out of their refusal to consider additional changes to it.

Worse, unaccountable Federal bureaucrats are writing the requirements for Medicaid, a program in which the federal government provides only about 15%$ of the funding and the states 85%. Beyond that the likely chaos attendent to employer health care plans built into the perverse incentives of Obamacare is just beginning to be detected by the management consulting firms studying it. Rates everywhere will rise due to mandated coverage details and many employers are likely to discontinue their programs, throwing large numbers of people into the untested and so far untried government managed exchanges.

I'm beginning to think the feckless Obama will be a one term president, and may even be glad to escape the coming crisis he and his party have created.
0 Replies
 
Thomas
 
  2  
Reply Thu 16 Jun, 2011 09:28 pm
@georgeob1,
georgeob1 wrote:
1. Our WWII debt was at most a three year phenomenon

No it wasn't. (See table 1.1) As a quick Google-check could have told you, the US government ran deficits all the way from 1931 to 1946. Although you could technically say that 1931-1941 was not "world war II debt", it's still fifteen back-to-back years of debt, not three.

georgeob1 wrote:
- our deficits and total debt rose rapidly to unprecedented heights and then at war's end the deficits turned to surplus.

No they didn't. As you can see in the same source I quoted above, the post-1946 federal government ran a surplus in some years and a deficit in others, totalling slight deficits on average. Although it is true that the post-Roosevelt, pre-Reagan years decimated the debt as a percentage of GDP, the reason was that the GDP grew up to the debt, not that Roosevelt's debts were ever paid back.

georgeob1 wrote:
Now, due to projected entitlement cost growth we face near permanent structural deficits with no evident prospects of eliminating them even with significan tax increases unless significant spending cuts are made.

No. Social Security has deliberately run a surplus since the 1980s, which enables it to run a deficit while the baby boomers live out their retirement. As for Medicare and Medicaid, they do pose a budget problem. But they're still more efficient than private-sector health insurance, and they can be paid for with modest long-run tax increases and defense-spending cuts.

georgeob1 wrote:
After WWII we had virtually the world's only intact inductrial plant with which to serve the pent up consumer demands of a major part opf the world. Few were able to compete with us until they had rebuilt their own economies, and our exports soared. Today we face serious competition from China which with yet another 400,000 of underemployed people can continue to violate the normal laws of economics for a long time as it supports an export oriented monetary policy and buys our bonds to sustain it.

The growth of foreign economies is a wash for the American economy, because they are both competitors and export markets. (Beggars can't compete with you, but you also can't sell your products to them.) Consequently, foreign competition does not change the size of the deficits America can safely run.

georgeob1 wrote:
During WWII our public debt was held by Americans and after the war was an asset to them in sustaining demand for our goods and services - mour own economic development and ownership of new material assets. Today our public debt is largely held by foreigners abd sovereign foreign nations - as assetsd for themselves and a lever for control of our economic lives.

So what? What could those foreigners do with the Treasury's debt that domestic creditors couldn't?
Irishk
 
  1  
Reply Fri 17 Jun, 2011 08:04 am
@roger,
Sounds like most bureaucracies...procedure always trumps outcome. And why not? It's not their money they're spending.
0 Replies
 
H2O MAN
 
  -1  
Reply Fri 17 Jun, 2011 10:07 am


Obama: ATMs Steal Jobs


ATM: I Didn't Do It
0 Replies
 
georgeob1
 
  3  
Reply Fri 17 Jun, 2011 11:53 am
@Thomas,
I have complaints about your responses above much like those you made of mine (though with more merit in my opinion). You are selecting and omitting relevant facts in a way to serve the rather dismissive arguments you are making.

I reviewed the OMB tables you cited, and noted that, much as I asserted, our deficits soared from about 3% of GDP in 1940 to 30% of GDP in 1943, declining to 22% in 1945, 7.6% of GDP in 1946 and then mostly small surpluses through 1960. There was in fact substantial retirement of debt in those years, but also very high economic growth that was (we agree) the main force in eclipsing the accumulated debt. It is also a fact that the redemption of huge numbers of liberty stamps and small denomination war bonds that comprised often forced savings during the war provided cash fed the postwar growth in consumer demand. That aspect of the situation would, contrary to your blithe assumptions, have been very different if foreign sovereign entities held our debt.

There were indeed deficits, beginning with Roosevelt in 1932 - 4% of GDP in 1936, peaking at 5.9% in 1934, declining steadily to 0.5% in 1938, and slowly rising thru 1940. GDP was low and variable in those years and the annual deficits amounted to about $2.5 billion dollars - about 4% of the annual dollar deficits during the war years.

The essential point here is that your argument that we ran steady deficits during the 1930s as well as the war years and in some cases afterwards is literally true, but positively deceptive. You have simply obscured the fact that our national debt exploded during the war years as a result of the war effort, but the country quickly returned to mostly surplus and balance immediately after the war ended. We agree that explosive post war economic growth, fueled by pent up demand and the lack of external competition was the primary factor in reducing the relative significance of the accumulated debt - though substantial retirement did, in fact occur.

The situation we face today is profoundly different in two areas. (1) Our rising deficits are not associated with external forces that will operate for but a short period. They are structural, built in to the continuing operations of our government, and likely to be lasting if we don't address them. This is complicated by the fact of a so far persistent paralysis of our body politic in dealing with them - denial and political evasion on one side and sometimes shrill prophecies of doom on the other. The first casualty has been serious effort to deal with the problem. (2) Unlike the 1040s, we don't face a period of explosive economic growth, fueled by pentup economic demand and accumulated consumer savings, and unencumbered by foreign competition. Instead our current situation is the reverse in each area.

The situation in Greece is both similar and different - each in important areas. Like ours their debt crisis is the result of longstanding structural elements and public denial. Unlike ours they are constrained by the Euro, unable to inflate their currency and restrained drom default by their benefactor/creditors. Iceland, with its own currency, and Ireland, a Euro nation, both faced debt crises caused by banking collapses (as opposed to structural deficits). Iceland let the bank's (largely foreign) creditors take the hit and (in my view) is recovering nicely. Ireland chose to guarantee the bank debt and faces a period of austerity while it is paid off. Both countries will likely fare much better than Greece, in that the underlying cause of their crises has been dealt with. Meanwhile Greece has lost control of its financial affairs to its now surly and self-interested Euro zone "benefactors", and persists in its internal denial and inability to deal with the cause of the structural problem - no cure at all.\

Our current situation is like that of Greece in its structural elements (but perhaps with somewhat less fradulent accounting) and the associated public denial. I believe those (like the little weasel Krugman) who advocate that we try to borrow and spend our way out of such a continuing problem are, at best, blind to the significance of this point.

Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Fri 17 Jun, 2011 12:19 pm
@georgeob1,
georgeob1 wrote:

Iceland, with its own currency, and Ireland, a Euro nation, both faced debt crises caused by banking collapses (as opposed to structural deficits). Iceland let the bank's (largely foreign) creditors take the hit and (in my view) is recovering nicely. Ireland chose to guarantee the bank debt and faces a period of austerity while it is paid off. Both countries will likely fare much better than Greece, in that the underlying cause of their crises has been dealt with. Meanwhile Greece has lost control of its financial affairs to its now surly and self-interested Euro zone "benefactors", and persists in its internal denial and inability to deal with the cause of the structural problem - no cure at all.\

Our current situation is like that of Greece in its structural elements (but perhaps with somewhat less fradulent accounting) and the associated public denial. I believe those (like the little weasel Krugman) who advocate that we try to borrow and spend our way out of such a continuing problem are, at best, blind to the significance of this point.





Krugman is heavily criticized in this report from Iceland as well:
Quote:
[..]
Iceland is very far from solving its crisis. Nothing new is happening in Iceland. Exports rise only in monetary terms. The price of fish and aluminum, our two main exports, luckily is high. But we are not producing any more than before. Before the crash our króna was so strong (not by choice but by supply and demand) that our export industries suffered. Even after the crash investment is extremely low, in part thanks to our left wing government that thinks foreign money is bad. GDP went down by 3.5% in Iceland last year. The Irish economy contracted by 1.0%. Not that I would feel any better if they had done worse than we did.

The following graph shows how a number of countries have done since the crises in terme of GDP.
http://i55.tinypic.com/b5nmlh.jpg
Unfortunately Iceland is at the bottom. Very close to Ireland.

Krugman continues to babble about how wonderful Iceland’s recovery is. Unhappily he is wrong.

For the average Icelander the following has happened because of the economic disaster: Real salary has gone down by 15%. Debt indexed to the consumer price index has risen by 30%. Debt indexed to foreign currency has more than doubled. Luckily, the Supreme Court said that type of indexing was illegal, but instead the debt grew by only 30-40%. Pension funds lost about 25%. The stock market vanished. Less than five companies survived. Housing prices fell by more than 30% in real terms. Unemployment rose to 8%, more Icelanders are now emigrating than coming back.

Mr. Krugman said: “Although Iceland is generally considered to have experienced the worst financial crisis in history, its punishment has actually been substantially less than that of other nations.”

How much worse could the punishment get?

So Mr. Krugman if you need to invent facts about some country to support your theories, at least stop using Iceland.

Please.
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Fri 17 Jun, 2011 12:22 pm
@georgeob1,
georgeob1 wrote:
Ireland chose to guarantee the bank debt and faces a period of austerity while it is paid off.


You forgot to mention that the IMF, EU and the ECB are lenders of €67.5 billion (about $96,583,937,400) in bailout loans to Ireland.
0 Replies
 
cicerone imposter
 
  0  
Reply Fri 17 Jun, 2011 12:27 pm
@georgeob1,
You wrote,
Quote:
The situation we face today is profoundly different in two areas. (1) Our rising deficits are not associated with external forces that will operate for but a short period. They are structural, built in to the continuing operations of our government, and likely to be lasting if we don't address them. This is complicated by the fact of a so far persistent paralysis of our body politic in dealing with them - denial and political evasion on one side and sometimes shrill prophecies of doom on the other. The first casualty has been serious effort to deal with the problem. (2) Unlike the 1040s, we don't face a period of explosive economic growth, fueled by pent-up economic demand and accumulated consumer savings, and unencumbered by foreign competition. Instead our current situation is the reverse in each area.


Yes, these are structural problems built into our government's operations, but that alone needn't be a problem. The only solution is the strength of our economy, and any austerity program now will only exacerbate the unemployment rolls. The austerity program in Greece has only made their economy worse off.

We don't have economic growth, because most of the earnings have gone to the CEOs while the middle class and the poor barely kept up with inflation. If their pay had been more equitable during the past 30 years when productivity increased, our economy would be in better stead today. Instead, the pay of CEO's increased 400-fold; many now "earn" over $1 million a month.

Austerity programs now will only diminish tax collections, and make it more difficult for government(s) to provide the basic services to our people - especially for education and protection from crime and fires.

A good start to reduce the current problems is to stop funding all wars, cut subsidies to energy companies, farmers, and foreign countries.

Another step that our government can take is to increase spending on our infrastructure; roads, bridges, communication, and energy.

Another step is to increase taxes on corporations the wealthy and the middle class. I'm not even sure how we can measure "middle class" any more.

Our communities are now closing libraries, parks, and social service departments. If we follow current trends, it will get much worse. Drastic action is needed to reverse this economic crisis where more middle class families are losing jobs and homes.




0 Replies
 
Cycloptichorn
 
  3  
Reply Fri 17 Jun, 2011 12:43 pm
@georgeob1,
I cannot believe you would write such a post without mentioning the obvious fact that marginal taxes were twice, and in some cases, almost three times the rates they are today. Our 'structural problems' are not just in spending and entitlements, but in our extremely low tax rates on those who have profited the most in the last three decades.

There's no 'serious effort' to address our current problems in large part because your party is in denial regarding the fact that our current tax rates, especially marginal rates on the wealthy, are too low; and your supply-side dogma and insistence that invisible Bond Vigilantes are always waiting around the next corner doesn't allow you an iota of flexibility on the issue.

Cycloptichorn
0 Replies
 
Thomas
 
  1  
Reply Fri 17 Jun, 2011 02:34 pm
@Walter Hinteler,
Walter Hinteler wrote:
Krugman is heavily criticized in this report from Iceland as well:

And? Do you agree or disagree with the criticism?
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Fri 17 Jun, 2011 02:45 pm
@Thomas,
I suppose, Krugman is correct in his analysis about Iceland.

(As is Jan Randolph, the head of sovereign risk at IHS Global about Greece: "The achilles heel of the Greek economy is tax evasion. If the rich paid their taxes there wouldn't be a problem.")
cicerone imposter
 
  0  
Reply Fri 17 Jun, 2011 02:48 pm
@Walter Hinteler,
Here's another report on Iceland's economy.
http://www.theodora.com/wfbcurrent/iceland/iceland_economy.html
0 Replies
 
realjohnboy
 
  1  
Reply Tue 21 Jun, 2011 03:25 pm
Greece: The vote of confidence vs no-confidence on the leadership of Prime Minister George Papandreaou is scheduled for this hour. Markets expect him to survive by getting a majority of votes in the Parliament.
Defeat would be brutal on the EU and other economies. Victory gives him a fortnight to try to work an an austerity program that will
allow a bailout.
Meanwhile strikes and demonstrations are rampant.
Stay tuned.
We should see results later this evening.
realjohnboy
 
  1  
Reply Tue 21 Jun, 2011 03:58 pm
@realjohnboy,
Papandreaou survives the no confidence vote, but he has a big job ahead of him to come up with an acceptable austerity program by the end of the month. It will be daunting with the backdrop of strikes and demonstrations.
georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Tue 21 Jun, 2011 04:31 pm
@realjohnboy,
It will be interesting. I suspect many Greeks believe the fear of a spreading financial contagion and damage to their own banks will spook the major EU nations into bailing them out once again - and without the necessity of laying off any of their many government employees or reducing social benefits. To some extent they have already been proven correct by the eagerness of France to protect its banks with German money and the repeated last minute compromises of the German Government.
 

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