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Where is the US economy headed?

 
 
realjohnboy
 
  1  
Reply Sun 13 Feb, 2011 10:47 am
Good morning.
Thank you for your response, Okie. Again, I have no desire to get into a spitting match over which president(s) did or not do what when. I am sticking with the argument that the notion of home ownership as being the Great American Dream goes back decades.
With regards to the last two paragraphs in you response here...
Your analogy to weaning the kid away from a fat allowance was probably not the best one but I understand your point.
It will indeed, I think, take a decade to get rid of F&F's involvement in the mortgage market without any significant kind of government guarantees.
The almost immediate results will be (a) higher interest rates, (b) higher down payments (c) only to those with high credit ratings and (d) the end of the 30 year fixed rate mortgage rate.
The last one scares me a bit. I can see all or most mortgages going to ARMS
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Sun 13 Feb, 2011 11:57 am
@realjohnboy,
It was reported this morning on radio that the mortgage rate has gone up over 5% for the first time in many a months because of inflation.

I also noticed that the 10 year bond price was running in the 91 area earlier last week, but was up to 100 during the past two days. That signifies that inflation is anticipated to increase.

I was expecting this to happen; just didn't know exactly when. One of the reasons I'm heavy on intermediate bond funds in my portfolio.


0 Replies
 
Cycloptichorn
 
  0  
Reply Mon 14 Feb, 2011 11:35 am
Quote:
THE OPENING MOVE.... I'm reluctant to devote too much attention to President Obama's proposed budget for the 2012 fiscal year, since we know going into the process that a Republican-led House probably won't even read it. But it'd be a mistake to simply blow off the White House's proposal -- today's unveiling has substantive and political significance.

On the former, the administration's first two budgets were, by progressive standards, pretty solid documents, presented with the luxury of strong Democratic majorities. This year's budget, obviously, comes in the wake of the midterm elections and the swearing in of the new House GOP majority.

As a result, this new budget is far less encouraging -- it makes painful cuts in some areas, while boosting investments in forward-thinking priorities like infrastructure. It's an infinitely better plan than what Republicans have talked about, but given that the GOP vision is stark raving mad, that's setting the bar for quality at a very low point.

But as the discussion gets underway, let's also note the politics. Jonathan Cohn had a good piece on this overnight.

Quote:
The most important question about Obama's budget, then, is how well it positions him and his allies in the coming debate over these sorts of priorities.

You could make a case that, by embracing the Republican narrative on the size of government and calling for a five-year budget freeze at present levels, Obama has effectively bid too low in the negotiation over federal spending -- that he's committed himself, and the country, to less government than it needs. (It's happened before!) Or you could make the case that, by making "tough" proposals to cut programs he supports, he's establishing the credibility with voters that he needs in order to marginalize the Republicans and to preserve more spending than might otherwise be possible. (It's happened before!)

I really don't know which argument is right.


Neither do I, but I don't think the "establishing the credibility" tack is necessarily a mistake. I've criticized the Obama White House on several occasions about pre-emptive concessions, and I can see why this would fall under that umbrella -- if the West Wing knows congressional Republicans are going way too far in one direction, perhaps the White House should prepare for coming negotiations by moving aggressively in the other direction, pushing spending increased on everything, better positioning the president to reach a more progressive compromise.

But Obama's preferred approach is about making him appear reasonable against GOP extremism. As the fight progresses, the president will tell the public, "I presented a budget plan with deep cuts, even to programs I care about, which will lower the deficit considerably. Instead of working on a sensible compromise, Republicans are going too far and now want to shut down the government." The point is to push the GOP into fighting the White House to do some very unpopular things -- things the president and his team suspect Republicans will drop when push comes to shove, for fear of a public backlash.

The last time there was a budget showdown like this one was 1995. The new Republican majority overreached, overplayed a weak hand, and lost the public. The likelihood of seeing this play out a similar way 16 years later appears fairly strong.

—Steve Benen 10:45 AM Permalink | Trackbacks | Comments (14)


Cycloptichorn
parados
 
  1  
Reply Mon 14 Feb, 2011 01:30 pm
@georgeob1,
Quote:
Perhaps the worst aspect of the F&F situation was that, as agencies completely dependent on the Federal government, they became thoroughly politicized. Thus Franklin Raines, a political aide & attorney to President Clinton - without any banking or financial experience - was, in effect, appointed by the president as CEO of Fannie Mae - earning about $60 million in bonuses during a four year tenure there.

Of course Franklin Raines had no banking experience at all before becoming CEO of Fannie......

Except of course for the 11 years he spent at Lazard Freres and Co. and then there's the 5 years from 1991-96 he spent as vice chairman of Fannie.

Why do people feel the need to lie in order to smear people? Is the truth not bad enough goerge? Is that why you feel the need to simply rewrite the facts? Or were you just hoping that no one would bother to check your "niggling" facts?
Cycloptichorn
 
  0  
Reply Mon 14 Feb, 2011 01:34 pm
@parados,
parados wrote:

Quote:
Perhaps the worst aspect of the F&F situation was that, as agencies completely dependent on the Federal government, they became thoroughly politicized. Thus Franklin Raines, a political aide & attorney to President Clinton - without any banking or financial experience - was, in effect, appointed by the president as CEO of Fannie Mae - earning about $60 million in bonuses during a four year tenure there.

Of course Franklin Raines had no banking experience at all before becoming CEO of Fannie......

Except of course for the 11 years he spent at Lazard Freres and Co. and then there's the 5 years from 1991-96 he spent as vice chairman of Fannie.

Why do people feel the need to lie in order to smear people? Is the truth not bad enough goerge? Is that why you feel the need to simply rewrite the facts? Or were you just hoping that no one would bother to check your "niggling" facts?


It's stuff like this that leads to my consistent requests for evidence to back up propositions.

Cycloptichorn
0 Replies
 
georgeob1
 
  2  
Reply Mon 14 Feb, 2011 02:03 pm
@parados,
I was correct that Raines had no prior banking experience (Lazard Feres is a financial management consultancy, not a bank). However, I was incorrect in stating he had no financial experience - something he had in good measure.

Raines also settled with the government to return just under half of the bonuses he received (about $24 million) due to the deceptive and false financial statements of Fannie Mae that he produced and on which the bonuses were based. He also was the author of initiatives in FM to expand mortgages to less qualified individuals to advance home ownership among minority and less economically well-off individuals. This involved direction to lower down payment requirements and credit thresholds for qualification, and later the purchase of mortgage backed securities by based on these loans by FM to feed more capital into this growing market and the bubble that eventually developed..

My error does not in any way alter the main points of my post or the description of Raine's role in the collapse of our Mortgage markets.
parados
 
  1  
Reply Mon 14 Feb, 2011 02:26 pm
@georgeob1,
Quote:
Lazard Ltd (NYSE: LAZ) is the parent company of Lazard Group LLC, a global, independent investment bank with approximately 2,300 employees in 41 cities across 26 countries throughout Europe


If you want to argue that Lazard is not a bank, then you have to argue that Fannie and Freddie are not involved in banking.
0 Replies
 
realjohnboy
 
  1  
Reply Mon 14 Feb, 2011 02:28 pm
@Cycloptichorn,
I agree, Cyclo, that it is not too useful to get into any deep analysis of Obama's budget. There will be, I suspect, many perhaps major adjustments to it in the weeks ahead. The projected deficit over the next year or more needs to have an * by it. It relies on CBO estimates based on current law. So, for example, it assumes that Bush tax cuts set to expire in two years will not be extended again like they were in the lame duck session. That is a big assumption.
It will be interesting to see how the Republicans in general and the Tea Party movement in particular will come together to propose an alternative plan.
0 Replies
 
parados
 
  0  
Reply Mon 14 Feb, 2011 02:28 pm
@georgeob1,
Quote:
My error does not in any way alter the main points of my post or the description of Raine's role in the collapse of our Mortgage markets.

Your failure to get facts correct alters the way we should view your conclusion.

1. Your conclusion was based on facts that didn't exist.
OR
2. Your conclusion was reached and then needed made up facts to support it.

Either way it dilutes your conclusion and supporting arguments.
0 Replies
 
realjohnboy
 
  1  
Reply Mon 14 Feb, 2011 03:08 pm
A favorite sub-topic on this or one of other threads has been high-speed rail. Obama's budget calls for $50 Bn over the next 6 years with more to follow in the out years.
I went digging for some data and am not real happy with the results I found. 1st of all it was old (2005) and the writer (from ABC) was more then a bit sloppy in using the word "average."
In 2005, the 220Mn drivers spent an average of 90 minutes a day in the cars.
The sub-group of those who commute to and from work spent 60 minutes a day to go an average of 30 miles.
60% of those who commute say they "like it" vs 36% who say they "dislike it."
While the vast majority of those who like commuting say they find it a relaxing experience and/or like the convenience, 70% say that they have witnessed bad behavior (speeding, aggressive or inattentive driving). 27% say they have seen "road rage."
6 of 10 commuters have access to public transport but only 1 of
10 use it regularly.
Again, this was a 2005 poll and article. A significant majority said commuting had gotten worse between 2005 and a similar number said that they expected it would continue to deteriorate in 2006-2010.
okie
 
  1  
Reply Mon 14 Feb, 2011 03:10 pm
@parados,
parados wrote:
Except of course for the 11 years he spent at Lazard Freres and Co. and then there's the 5 years from 1991-96 he spent as vice chairman of Fannie.
That 5 years as vice chairman of Fannie, is that a bit like being vice-captain of the Titanic before it sank? Great resume Raines has there, parados!
parados
 
  0  
Reply Mon 14 Feb, 2011 04:20 pm
@okie,
I see.. And who was the President in 1991? It's kind of like blaming the Titanic's sinking on the captain of the Carpathia, don't you think?
0 Replies
 
georgeob1
 
  2  
Reply Mon 14 Feb, 2011 04:41 pm
@realjohnboy,
Lots of confusion on this subject. Many folks don't make the distinction between "High Speed Rail" (an intercity passenger rail system) and "Urban Light Rail" (a misnomer in that the wheel loading is usually higher that others, but basically covers urban mass transit systems like the Washington Metro, Atlanta's MARTA, BART in the Bay Area, the LA Metro and many others.)

Specifically, "high Speed rail" refers to the 100mph plus interurban rail systems, chiefly in Europe. These involve special roadbeds with welded rails, advanced, sometimes banked roadbeds, with 100% grade-separated road crossings (for their entire length) operating electrically powered trains on routes ranging generally from about 80 to 300 miles between major stops. All of these systems in Europe are very expensive and heavily subsidized by their respective governments. The greater distances in this country make them far more expensive and less competitive with air travel than those in Europe.

The only close approximation to this in the USA is the AMTRAC Acela metroliner operating between Washington and New York. It operates at about 110mph (much slower than most in Europe) and is also heavily subsidized by the government (both directly in terms of government outlays and indirectly - in Europe - in terms of high gasoline and jet fuel taxes).

Urban rail (metro) systems are also very expensive ( over $200million/mile) and require extensive (and usually hidden) subsidies for their operation. (I pay about $500/year in a supplemental tax for BART as part of the property tax on my home).

A good case can be made for urban rail systems once they are built. Cities adapt to them and grow around the stations accordingly. However, it is exceedingly difficult and risky to invest in their construction because of the very high capital costs and the continuing (permanent) subsidies required for their operations.

Generally Democrats favor urban and high speed interurban rail systems and Republicans oppose them. Our last surge in urban rail construction occurred during the first term of the Clinton Administration. At the time I headed the infrastructure engineering & construction group in one of the major U.S. companies involved in the market, and we were heavily involved in the design & construction of urban rail systems in Atlanta, Miami, Chicago, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Honolulu, Seattle, and Baltimore (as well as Taipei & Shanghai). Interestingly although the systems in Honolulu & Seattle and a fourth line in LA were designed (by the comnpany group I led) at great cost, they were never built because the local voters balked at the prospects of long-term subsidies, taxes and bonds. Even these projects have recently been resurrected. We also did research projects for advanced (MAGLEV) propulsion and high speed interurban rail projects, even then on the drawing boards.).

Now we are again seeing the Obama administration dragging out the same old rail projects, now labelling the high speed interurban rail projects (ludicrously) as "investments" in greater economic productivity. They are not investments at all and they will not improve our economic productivity (aircraft are faster and more efficient). They will benefit the companies that design and build them, the public bureaucracies that operate them. and the public employee unions that will staff them, but that's about it.

In fact the United States enjoys a very efficient cargo rail system that uses advanced methods to track cargos and modularize cargo handling at intermodal transit points (ports; rail-truck distribution points etc.). This truly is an investment in economic productivity. High speed Passenger rail is not.

Moreover Obama was probably wrong in suggesting there will be no TSA security pat-down. I'm sure if we build a 180 mph high speed rail line between LA and San Francisco we will see the TSA folks and all their chickenshit at each station.

Urban rail remains a potentially beneficial, but hard-to-get-voters-to-accept option. High speed urban rail is a boondoggle we would be wise to avoid.
spendius
 
  0  
Reply Mon 14 Feb, 2011 06:25 pm
We have been told today that the American economy is heading for second place within a decade.
0 Replies
 
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Mon 14 Feb, 2011 06:29 pm
@georgeob1,
georgeob, I believe much of what you say is true, but there is the issue about the limited use of oil for even higher use of vehicles in the future. It is already predicted, that gas will cost above $4/gallon by summer. For those driving their cars for work, it's going to eat into more of their income, and they will need to make sacrifices in other areas. If gas prices goes above $7/gallon as they already are in most countries around the world, it will force people to take public transportation.

I believe this issue needs to be studied, and the right decisions made to spend money now for "high speed rail," before it's too late. It'll become much more expensive in the future. All one needs to do is compare those countries that have built high speed rail systems in their countries, and their usage.
okie
 
  1  
Reply Mon 14 Feb, 2011 06:30 pm
@georgeob1,
georgeob1 wrote:
High speed urban rail is a boondoggle we would be wise to avoid.
If anyone likes AmTrak, they will absolutely love Obama's High Speed Rail.

One thing sure, government spending is now known as "investing." I wonder if the federal department of education has worked that into the curriculum terminology for all of the schools, as a condition for obtaining federal funding, yet?
georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Mon 14 Feb, 2011 06:32 pm
@cicerone imposter,
If we build high speed rail with electrically powered trains, and generate the electricity with coal or nuclear plants you will have a point. However if we produce the power with renewable plants that deliver power for three (or more) times the cost we will be broke long before the petroleum runs out.
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Mon 14 Feb, 2011 06:34 pm
@georgeob1,
Those are all considerations that must be considered before a high speed rail system is designed and built.
0 Replies
 
reasoning logic
 
  1  
Reply Mon 14 Feb, 2011 06:37 pm
I need help from an intellectual to explain to me how this is not going to effect the direction of the US economy , Respond even if you are not sure!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=whVHE_OJ4Gg
0 Replies
 
realjohnboy
 
  1  
Reply Mon 14 Feb, 2011 06:41 pm
@georgeob1,
Nice post, Georgeob. I cant make the high speed inter city scheme make any sense.
With regards to daily commuting, I am not at all sure that the notion of "build it and they will come" works. The only way it might is if state gas taxes increased.
Story time: A year or so ago, I was invited to be on a panel sponsored by the Urban Planning department at UVA. We talked about the 10 or so miles that people encountered every work day from Crozet (crow-zay) to Cville. Hundreds upon hundreds of cars every workday, going to and fro.
The dream was floated, over and over, about using the rail line from Crozet east to Cville for a commuter system that passes through UVA, Midtown and downtown.
Cool idea, I guess, but I happened to be sitting next to a lady from CSX, the freight line, who noted to me that there is a west bound train every 30 minutes.
Empty coal cars heading back to WVA.
 

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