114
   

Where is the US economy headed?

 
 
realjohnboy
 
  1  
Reply Fri 11 Feb, 2011 02:24 pm
Fannie and Freddie...
The administration is out today with the opening salvo in the discussion of the purchase and bundling of federally guaranteed mortgages from banks by F&F.
One sentence caught my eye:
"The administration believes that we must continue to ensure that Americans have access to an adequate range of affordable housing options. THIS DOES NOT MEAN THAT ALL AMERICANS SHOULD BECOME HOMEOWNERS."
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Fri 11 Feb, 2011 02:27 pm
@realjohnboy,
Was this an epiphany for the government? LOL
0 Replies
 
okie
 
  1  
Reply Fri 11 Feb, 2011 08:50 pm
@realjohnboy,
realjohnboy wrote:
Fannie and Freddie...
The administration is out today with the opening salvo in the discussion of the purchase and bundling of federally guaranteed mortgages from banks by F&F.
One sentence caught my eye:
"The administration believes that we must continue to ensure that Americans have access to an adequate range of affordable housing options. THIS DOES NOT MEAN THAT ALL AMERICANS SHOULD BECOME HOMEOWNERS."
That is an interesting statement. What are we to look out for now? Rent control? Conversion of Fannie and Freddie or HUD to provide more and more tax subsidized housing? Or could this be a Housing initiative after the pattern of Obamacare in the medical industry? In other words, do we now need to worry about Obama angling for taking over the entire housing industry? Remember, these people are socialists. Nothing would surprise me?
0 Replies
 
plainoldme
 
  0  
Reply Fri 11 Feb, 2011 08:55 pm
There was an excellent piece on Freddie and Fannie on tonight's All Things Considered.
0 Replies
 
okie
 
  1  
Reply Fri 11 Feb, 2011 09:03 pm
@realjohnboy,
realjohnboy wrote:

Fannie and Freddie...
The administration is out today with the opening salvo in the discussion of the purchase and bundling of federally guaranteed mortgages from banks by F&F.
One sentence caught my eye:
"The administration believes that we must continue to ensure that Americans have access to an adequate range of affordable housing options. ..........."
Is Obama ignorant of the fact that such is not the job of the federal government, any more than insuring there is an adequate range of affordable cars, airplanes, or bags of potato chips for that matter?
reasoning logic
 
  0  
Reply Fri 11 Feb, 2011 09:15 pm
@okie,
You may have a point there Okie!
Do you think that these ladies have a point too and could this help us to determine where the Us economy is headed?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ExL4KQ3noOI


okie
 
  2  
Reply Fri 11 Feb, 2011 09:39 pm
@reasoning logic,
I watched your video, rl, but what does that have to do with the price of tea in China?
reasoning logic
 
  0  
Reply Fri 11 Feb, 2011 09:45 pm
@okie,
Sorry I did not know that this thread was about the price of tea in china, I thought that it was about "where the Us economy was headed"!
okie
 
  2  
Reply Fri 11 Feb, 2011 10:08 pm
@reasoning logic,
Just in case you have not heard the "price of tea in China" phrase, I have heard it used in response to somebody elses comment that did not seem to relate to the subject. In short, I used it to communicate that I did not get the connection of your video to the economy.
reasoning logic
 
  1  
Reply Sat 12 Feb, 2011 08:10 am
@okie,
The world is watching us! The advancement in technology is allowing the rest of the world to see how our government and corporations conduct business around the world.
If the rest of the world thinks that we are corrupt the citizens of other countries may think twice about doing buisness with us. This will cause the fall of the dollar "the petrodollar.
The citizens may start to demand from us and their own governments a higher ethical standard. By the US and it's corporations trying to cover-up, concealing or trying to stop the freedom of speach," the citizens will know that we can not be trusted.

It may not be long before the rest of the world rallies in protest against us.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petrodollar_warfare
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Sat 12 Feb, 2011 10:48 am
@reasoning logic,
rl, Makes a lot of sense; ergo Egypt. The line of communication is swift and global. It's no longer a "secret" world where countries can get away with shenanigans that affects them.
0 Replies
 
realjohnboy
 
  1  
Reply Sat 12 Feb, 2011 01:57 pm
@okie,
okie wrote:

realjohnboy wrote:

Fannie and Freddie...
The administration is out today with the opening salvo in the discussion of the purchase and bundling of federally guaranteed mortgages from banks by F&F.
One sentence caught my eye:
"The administration believes that we must continue to ensure that Americans have access to an adequate range of affordable housing options. ..........."
Is Obama ignorant of the fact that such is not the job of the federal government, any more than insuring there is an adequate range of affordable cars, airplanes, or bags of potato chips for that matter?


It strikes me as a bit disingenuous that you would leave off the key sentence in what I posted: "This does not mean that all Americans should become homeowners."
I think that type of comment has not been made by any president in our lifetimes. I can find quotes by both Bushes and by Clinton advocating policies to make home ownership available to more people, including a plan by GWB for a government subsidized "no down payment" scheme.
In any event, Okie, I personally have no interest in getting into the blame game discussion again. We have been there and done that.
I am curious about your thoughts on the Obama administration's list of options regarding the future of F&F and some of the followup today amongst some economists about the interest deduction from taxes on mortgages in light of the "This does not mean..." quote above.
Thanks for your input.
plainoldme
 
  0  
Reply Sat 12 Feb, 2011 02:04 pm
@realjohnboy,
I would say that the obvious thing is that the housing industry has been a driving force of the economy since the end of WWII. Fannie and Freddie had a role in maintaining that force. Statements about home ownership from various presidents re-enforced a culture of home ownership. Even okie thinks that home ownership is the mark of a responsible adult, a goal toward which to work.

However, the country is now saturated with houses. We will have to trim our population as we face the post-industrial age. Ergo, home ownership will be de-emphasized.
cicerone imposter
 
  0  
Reply Sat 12 Feb, 2011 03:09 pm
@plainoldme,
It's not only that our country is saturated with houses; many towns like Las Vegas and Modesto are ghost towns, and they were once growing cities. On top of all that, more Americans are walking away from homes that are worth less than their mortgage, and banks still haven't recognized their loss of value on their books. It's all a sham while banks continue to declare "profit" when the housing industry is still in a downward spiral. During this Great Recession, all level of governments are going to be cutting workers who are now homeowners. If anyone understands simple math, that means the housing market is going to be depressed more in the future.

hawkeye10
 
  1  
Reply Sat 12 Feb, 2011 03:14 pm
@cicerone imposter,
Quote:
If anyone understands simple math, that means the housing market is going to be depressed more in the future.

It is Japan all over again, where failure to face up the the facts (current value) makes it impossible to turn the corner. Until we both get to the bottom of real estate devaluations and also make the books at the banks honest we are fucked. There is no political will to do what needs to be done, the failure to fix the political system bites us in the ass over and over again.
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Sat 12 Feb, 2011 03:16 pm
@hawkeye10,
I agree.
0 Replies
 
realjohnboy
 
  1  
Reply Sat 12 Feb, 2011 07:28 pm
As you all probably know, 90% of the home mortgages in the U.S. are guaranteed by the federal government. Banks originate the loans, pass them through the government which puts their rubber stamp on them and passes them on to F&F to bundle and sell them to investors.
When we were all fat and happy, things worked fine. But when the bubble burst, the government is on the hook for something like $150Bn and counting.

One of the administration's proposed options is to get the government largely out of the loan guarantee business (except for some VA loans etc).
Banks would still originate loans but they would have to hold them on their books or sell them to F&F or some other private investors.

Does this option make sense to you? Advocates of eliminating the F&F's guarantees argue that it is not the government's role to get into whether home ownership is preferable to renting. Opponents suggest that if F&F withdraw, the housing market will freeze up, with mortgage rates rising dramatically.
okie
 
  1  
Reply Sat 12 Feb, 2011 08:13 pm
@realjohnboy,
realjohnboy wrote:
okie wrote:
realjohnboy wrote:

Fannie and Freddie...
The administration is out today with the opening salvo in the discussion of the purchase and bundling of federally guaranteed mortgages from banks by F&F.
One sentence caught my eye:
"The administration believes that we must continue to ensure that Americans have access to an adequate range of affordable housing options. ..........."
Is Obama ignorant of the fact that such is not the job of the federal government, any more than insuring there is an adequate range of affordable cars, airplanes, or bags of potato chips for that matter?


It strikes me as a bit disingenuous that you would leave off the key sentence in what I posted: "This does not mean that all Americans should become homeowners."
rjb, I don't think Obama's statement that not all Americans should become homeowners changes the fallacy of his statement that he thinks the government should insure an adequate range of affordable housing options.
Quote:
I think that type of comment has not been made by any president in our lifetimes. I can find quotes by both Bushes and by Clinton advocating policies to make home ownership available to more people, including a plan by GWB for a government subsidized "no down payment" scheme.
In any event, Okie, I personally have no interest in getting into the blame game discussion again. We have been there and done that.
I am curious about your thoughts on the Obama administration's list of options regarding the future of F&F and some of the followup today amongst some economists about the interest deduction from taxes on mortgages in light of the "This does not mean..." quote above.
Thanks for your input.
You are probably correct about quotes by other presidents. I would even agree with the idea that government could institute policies to assist home ownership for more Americans, but we everyone should know that it is not government's responsibility to "guarantee" affordable home ownership. There is a big difference between assistance or encouragement by instituting reasonable policies and guaranteeing something.
0 Replies
 
georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Sat 12 Feb, 2011 08:26 pm
@realjohnboy,
The problem of the unstated but implied government guarantee of F&F had been discussed by economists for decades. There was no doubt that F&F were able to borrow money at reduced rates, based on this implied guarantee, to invest in the purchase of mortgages, thereby attracting more capital at lower rates to the mortgage loan market. This benefitted home buyers, home builders and realtors, but ultimately contributed very significantly to the housing bubble that collapsed in 2007, sending our financial markets into a tailspin. The process of securitizing and selling mortgage backed securities very significantly added to the 'moral hazard' experienced by banks and other mortgage originators. They needed only to guard against default for a few weeks until the mortgage was bundled with others into a security and purchased by F&F - not exactly the kind of situation needed to induce them to filter out buyers liable to default on their loans.

Perhaps the worst aspect of the F&F situation was that, as agencies completely dependent on the Federal government, they became thoroughly politicized. Thus Franklin Raines, a political aide & attorney to President Clinton - without any banking or financial experience - was, in effect, appointed by the president as CEO of Fannie Mae - earning about $60 million in bonuses during a four year tenure there. In 2003, when the first signs of excessive borrowing & mortgage securitization became evident, the Bush Administration tried to limit this activity and increase the ratio of "conforming" mortgages (those with at least 20% down payments) in those that F&F bought & securitized. This was instantly put down by the Democrat leaders in the House & Senate Committes involved as an unwarranted attack on their poor & minority constituents.

I see the conjunction of these two chronic problems as together dooming the practical usefulness of these institutions. The Democrats vociferously denied the two effects I identified above, however, the Administrations recent action to shut F&F down gives the lie to these denials. The Federal bailout required for F&F will dwarf those made to wall street banks.

I agree that mortgages will become more expensive, and, for many, harder to get without F&F. However, the damage caused by the collapsing housing bubble should also be weighed in that balance.
okie
 
  2  
Reply Sat 12 Feb, 2011 08:27 pm
@realjohnboy,
realjohnboy wrote:

As you all probably know, 90% of the home mortgages in the U.S. are guaranteed by the federal government. Banks originate the loans, pass them through the government which puts their rubber stamp on them and passes them on to F&F to bundle and sell them to investors.
When we were all fat and happy, things worked fine. But when the bubble burst, the government is on the hook for something like $150Bn and counting.
Excellent point of fact, rjb, thanks for posting it. And no, I do not think everyone knows that the U.S. government has been that deeply involved in the home loan business. In fact, that has been the point of discussion and argument about who caused the housing bubble, and that statistic you just posted is proof that the government was deeply involved, to the point of totally skewing the home loan industry. That has been the argument of conservatives ever since the housing bubble occurred, and we have been calling for investigations and more oversight for years. Bush was calling for more oversight when he was in office, but Democrats in Congress denied any problem existed. And the Democrats continue to deny the obvious link to the problem. Certain Democrat leaning posters on this forum continue to deny it.

Quote:
One of the administration's proposed options is to get the government largely out of the loan guarantee business (except for some VA loans etc).
Banks would still originate loans but they would have to hold them on their books or sell them to F&F or some other private investors.

Does this option make sense to you? Advocates of eliminating the F&F's guarantees argue that it is not the government's role to get into whether home ownership is preferable to renting. Opponents suggest that if F&F withdraw, the housing market will freeze up, with mortgage rates rising dramatically.
I agree that it is not government's intended function to be in the home loan business. Nor was the CRA legislation a wise policy at all, in fact it was counterproductive at the end of it all, because of unintended consequences. When free markets are artificially manipulated, there are always unintended consequences.

However, now that Fannie and Freddie are already involved deeply, it would not be wise to withdraw their involvement overnight. It needs to be done over a long period of time, as sort of a weaning process that has to take place. Sudden withdrawal could bring about more shock to the loan industry that might be very negative. I would liken it to giving a kid an outlandish allowance. Perhaps it would be wise to reduce it gradually instead of eliminating it in one step, so that the kid has time to more gradually adjust his or her habits accordingly.
0 Replies
 
 

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