114
   

Where is the US economy headed?

 
 
Cycloptichorn
 
  0  
Reply Mon 14 Feb, 2011 06:46 pm
@georgeob1,
georgeob1 wrote:

If we build high speed rail with electrically powered trains, and generate the electricity with coal or nuclear plants you will have a point. However if we produce the power with renewable plants that deliver power for three (or more) times the cost we will be broke long before the petroleum runs out.


Okay, so let's use coal or nuclear plants to generate that electricity. Supplement that with wind and solar. Over time phase the coal out in favor of more nuke, more wind and solar, and I believe that hydrothermal energy has the ability to make great strides.

Couple this with the increasing switch to dual gas/electric cars, with the eventual hope of viable all-electric cars.

Cycloptichorn
georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Mon 14 Feb, 2011 06:57 pm
@Cycloptichorn,
I would be for that, just to get the nuclear plants built.

However, I still would oppose the high speed rail project. My group did some of the preliminary rout studies for the LA-SFO project 15 years ago. Getting over the San Gabriel & Tehachapi mountains with a railbed graded for high speed trains will be prohibitively expensive. Moreover the ridership studies already done suggest that it will never recover the initial cost and will require very large subsidies as long as it operates.

Whatever the fuel, it takes less of it to move low payload cargo like people by air over those distances - even on level ground.
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Mon 14 Feb, 2011 07:23 pm
@georgeob1,
When you conclude that cost is "prohibitive," that only shows defeat in a system that have been built in all kinds of environments around the world. Think chunnel.
okie
 
  1  
Reply Mon 14 Feb, 2011 07:27 pm
@Cycloptichorn,
Cycloptichorn wrote:
Okay, so let's use coal or nuclear plants to generate that electricity. Supplement that with wind and solar. Over time phase the coal out in favor of more nuke, more wind and solar, and I believe that hydrothermal energy has the ability to make great strides.

Couple this with the increasing switch to dual gas/electric cars, with the eventual hope of viable all-electric cars.

Cycloptichorn
This is an interesting discussion, but first of all I think we need to recognize the fact that central planning is usually the wrong approach to take. I think instead we need to place confidence in energy sources and innovation to compete in an atmosphere of free markets. Ultimately, I wonder if smaller and more incremental approaches will ultimately find the best answers?

Some of the points I think we need to explore are encouraging the building of energy efficient homes, and perhaps retrofitting existing homes with the technology that we have and are developing, such as solar.

I have never in my lifetime observed mass transit to be much of an energy saver or answer to our energy shortage, and I don't see it as an efficient answer down the road. One of the principle reasons is the fact that our vibrant economy requires a responsive system of moving products and people from place to place throughout the 24 hour day. Another reason is that too much of our activities and productivity simply are not amenable to centrally planned mass transit for example.

Beyond gasoline or perhaps natural gas for vehicles, I agree that electricity offers great potential, but not by centrally planned technology. I think instead it will evolve as being viable and competitive if it can be. I wonder if hydrogen offers great future potential, if we can develop efficient methods of producing hydrogen with solar or wind electrical power, perhaps with many smaller plants that are strategically located. Again, I wonder if this system can better be developed by free markets in a competitive atmosphere.

Finally, we need to recognize the fact that oil and gas have been tremendously efficient energy sources, which will not suddenly disappear or run out overnight. New discoveries continue to surprise the experts in terms of how much hydrocarbons are being found. We should consider alternatives, but we should not try to force alternatives prematurely. Necessity is the mother of invention, and I have confidence that we should not invent too much necessity too far ahead of time. Let the process play out as it unfolds. Prices, supply, and demand, will do their work. The worst thing we can do is to have government spend inordinate amounts of money on poorly conceived and inefficient technologies that might eventually need to be replaced anyway.
Cycloptichorn
 
  0  
Reply Mon 14 Feb, 2011 07:31 pm
@okie,
I'll get to more later - wife is about to get home and I need to wrap her V'day gift - but I want to point this out:

Quote:
Finally, we need to recognize the fact that oil and gas have been tremendously efficient energy sources


Yeah. Not so much. The internal combustion engine is dreadfully inefficient. The only thing that gasoline has going for it is portability.

Moving to an electric-powered society is the key to small, competing sources of power generation. Smart, two-way meters allow even the local homeowner to be that person. A friend of mine has solar all over his house and installs the energy efficiency and weathering stuff you mentioned for a living. 7/10 days he turns a profit on the energy he generates and that's including the cost of his panels - though the installation was free in dollar terms, he and I did it in a weekend Laughing

Cycloptichorn
georgeob1
 
  0  
Reply Mon 14 Feb, 2011 07:42 pm
@Cycloptichorn,
I too am about to go out the door vor Valentine's day celebrations - or get my head knocked off if I don't.

The "profit" your friend turns on his solar panels are the exclusive results of the subsidies he gets for using them. These costs are borne by the other electrical rate payers. If everyone did it the costs would go through the roof and the subsidies would quickly end. A second point is that the power output of the panels declines as they age and weather - as my credulous green brother in law in Mill Valley has discovered.
0 Replies
 
okie
 
  1  
Reply Mon 14 Feb, 2011 07:48 pm
@Cycloptichorn,
Cycloptichorn wrote:
Quote:
Finally, we need to recognize the fact that oil and gas have been tremendously efficient energy sources
Yeah. Not so much. The internal combustion engine is dreadfully inefficient. The only thing that gasoline has going for it is portability.
I don't think I agree with that. I am no expert at calculating energy content and efficiencies, but it strikes me that if just one gallon of gasoline can transport a small automobile with passengers a distance of 20 to 40 miles, that is pretty efficient. Could you burn that same gallon of gasoline to charge batteries to go that same distance? I don't know the answer, but it seems like the internal combustion engine can potentially be very efficient, if built with the most efficient designs developed so far.
Quote:
Moving to an electric-powered society is the key to small, competing sources of power generation. Smart, two-way meters allow even the local homeowner to be that person. A friend of mine has solar all over his house and installs the energy efficiency and weathering stuff you mentioned for a living. 7/10 days he turns a profit on the energy he generates and that's including the cost of his panels - though the installation was free in dollar terms, he and I did it in a weekend Laughing
Cycloptichorn
I like the idea of energy produced by electrical customers to be fed back into the grid. Congratulations to you and your friend. If the overall demand for the power company can be reduced, it simplifies the solutions to the problem. I am contemplating looking into that for my place too. I think the costs might be coming into a more economically viable situation, and I look for that to continue.
parados
 
  1  
Reply Mon 14 Feb, 2011 08:00 pm
@okie,
The power grid will never be efficient and cost effective without central planning.
okie
 
  1  
Reply Mon 14 Feb, 2011 08:02 pm
@parados,
Not by Obama and his planners, parados. I agree that power companies are already well organized in the design of the grid.
parados
 
  1  
Reply Mon 14 Feb, 2011 08:04 pm
@okie,
okie wrote:

Not by Obama and his planners, parados. I agree that power companies are already well organized in the design of the grid.

And when did Obama and his planners propose that they be the ones to design anything? You spoke of honesty on another thread okie. Perhaps you should look into the concept. It seems to elude you as you make outlandish accusations instead of sticking to honest facts.
okie
 
  1  
Reply Mon 14 Feb, 2011 08:27 pm
@parados,
Maybe you were not listening when Obama has talked about "investing" in upgrading the power grid? If the federal government is going to spend tons of money on it, they will certainly be in on more central planning of it. There is a similar analogy with the high speed rail. Do you think they will have no say in where and how they will be built, if they spend the 50 some bill on it?

I am surprised you are that uninformed about what Obama has talked about, parados.
parados
 
  1  
Reply Mon 14 Feb, 2011 08:30 pm
@okie,
Oh.. I didn't realize that all those earmarks were really "central planning"...

Planning is not the same thing as a general idea.
Putting money towards a project is NOT planning the project. It never has been and never will be.
plainoldme
 
  0  
Reply Mon 14 Feb, 2011 08:47 pm
@okie,
The government is finally realizing that the dismantling of the rail system was a booboo. That last word is not be confused with the famous bear that hung around with Yogi.

Rail is a good investment to help prepare us for the post-industrial world.
0 Replies
 
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Mon 14 Feb, 2011 08:50 pm
@parados,
okie doesn't seem to understand much of anything; especially history.

From Wiki:
Quote:

Perhaps most significantly, earmark spending often results in the expenditure of large sums of taxpayer money to help a limited number of people. For example, in 2005, $223 million was earmarked by then Senate Committee on Appropriations chair Ted Stevens (R-Alaska) to build a bridge to connect an Alaskan town of 8,900 to an island with a population of 50, saving a short ferry ride.
0 Replies
 
plainoldme
 
  0  
Reply Mon 14 Feb, 2011 08:51 pm
@okie,
My son is a trained and licensed mechanic who will tell you the minutia of how and why the internal combustion engine is inefficient. However, since he went to school to study auto mechanics, you would reject his explanation in favor of your imaginings.
0 Replies
 
plainoldme
 
  0  
Reply Mon 14 Feb, 2011 08:52 pm
@parados,
You mean, parados, that you dislike the idea of small time bureaucrats, sitting in little cubbyholes across the nation, making all their nowhere plans for nobody?
0 Replies
 
Cycloptichorn
 
  0  
Reply Mon 14 Feb, 2011 08:56 pm
@okie,
okie wrote:

Cycloptichorn wrote:
Quote:
Finally, we need to recognize the fact that oil and gas have been tremendously efficient energy sources
Yeah. Not so much. The internal combustion engine is dreadfully inefficient. The only thing that gasoline has going for it is portability.
I don't think I agree with that. I am no expert at calculating energy content and efficiencies, but it strikes me that if just one gallon of gasoline can transport a small automobile with passengers a distance of 20 to 40 miles, that is pretty efficient. Could you burn that same gallon of gasoline to charge batteries to go that same distance? I don't know the answer, but it seems like the internal combustion engine can potentially be very efficient, if built with the most efficient designs developed so far.


Congratulations - you just re-invented the hybrid car! That is EXACTLY why they get higher mileage - the electric engine is far more efficient than a gasoline engine.

Quote:
Moving to an electric-powered society is the key to small, competing sources of power generation. Smart, two-way meters allow even the local homeowner to be that person. A friend of mine has solar all over his house and installs the energy efficiency and weathering stuff you mentioned for a living. 7/10 days he turns a profit on the energy he generates and that's including the cost of his panels - though the installation was free in dollar terms, he and I did it in a weekend Laughing
Cycloptichorn
I like the idea of energy produced by electrical customers to be fed back into the grid. Congratulations to you and your friend. If the overall demand for the power company can be reduced, it simplifies the solutions to the problem. I am contemplating looking into that for my place too. I think the costs might be coming into a more economically viable situation, and I look for that to continue.
[/quote]

Yup. One of the reasons I've been so into solar generation for a long time now is the distributed network. We had a power outage a while back, and me and my friends just went to his house and watched the football game on TV.

Cycloptichorn
0 Replies
 
georgeob1
 
  0  
Reply Tue 15 Feb, 2011 12:52 am
@parados,
parados wrote:

The power grid will never be efficient and cost effective without central planning.


From where did you get that factoid? We've had a decentralized power grid for about 90 years now and it has operated with remarkable effectiveness. The history of government central planning of economic activity is a sad litany of waste, shoddy services and products, rigid inflexibility and lousy customer service.
spendius
 
  -1  
Reply Tue 15 Feb, 2011 04:37 am
@realjohnboy,
Quote:
Empty coal cars heading back to WVA.


They wouldn't take coal to WVA. Or cars to Detroit. Or gas to Lousiana. Or grain to the mid-West.

And the systems for bulk transport of most things are unsuitable for anything else. So returning empty is a given.
spendius
 
  -1  
Reply Tue 15 Feb, 2011 04:39 am
@cicerone imposter,
Quote:
Think chunnel.


The Channel Tunnel has been stolen off those who paid for it. I know. I'm one of them.
0 Replies
 
 

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