Where is the US economy headed?

@parados,

I wrote this awhile ago, but will post it now.

parados, Pretty good analysis if I say so. The incremental increase in taxes will not change her to work less; if she does, it only means that her reasons for doing so will not be based on that incremental tax increase. I will also assume that over 99% of people who must pay an equal amount in incremental taxes will not change their work to less work. I don't see how, and would require credible sources to support such nonsense.

Tax rates are controlled by the feds and states. Whether the tax burden goes up or down does not affect the majority of workers to work less. If they did, there will be wholesale quitting of jobs; that will never happen.

People who now have jobs are the fortunate ones; they do not choose to work based on their tax liabilities.

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@parados,

parados, State income tax is deductible for federal filings, so it's really not 10%.

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@cicerone imposter,

Yeah, I didn't include it to give george the benefit of the doubt and the math still wasn't close to what he was claiming.

This would be more accurate.
(.35x.90) + .103 + .077 = .495 ( for 2010)

(.396x.90) +.103 + .077 + .03(loss of 3% deductions vs income) = .566 (worst case if it goes back to pre Bush taxation)

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Anyone with any great analysis about this, other than it may be a case of the rats abandoning ship, or that they are tired of presiding over their own failed policies?
"Obama's Top Economic Adviser Leaving
Will anyone else follow Larry Summers'"
http://video.foxnews.com/v/4345848/obamas-top-economic-adviser-leaving

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@okie,

okie, Do you remember how many of Bush's round table of crooks and liars left his lear?

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@okie,

okie wrote:

Anyone with any great analysis about this, other than it may be a case of the rats abandoning ship...?

I haven't seen Fox News' spin on this. You might want to check other news sources. People like Summers, from Harvard, are allowed a 2 year leave of absence from academia. If they are gone longer then that they lose their tenured positions.
It has worked that way in both Dem & Repub administrations.
Did you know that?

By the way, what ever happened to any discussion of economics on this thread?
Did anyone notice, for example, what happened to the price of gold today in light of the Federal Reserve's carefully nuanced comments yesterday regarding the threat of deflation in the U.S.?

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@realjohnboy,

I didn't know that, but 'rats leaving a sinking ship" is something that usually occurs at four year intervals. Still, I am getting a sense of some internal friction in the executive department.

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@roger,

I disagree with that, Roger. I am sticking with 2 years for most non-career types (as in economic, environonmental etc) where the talent is drawn from academia. I wouldn't know where to begin, though, to prove it.

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Having said that, it is no secret that Summers had a more than a bit of of an abrasive relationship with some of Obama's other economic advisors, including Aushan Goolsbee and Christina Romer. Summers wanted to replace Ben Bernankee as head of the Fed. When that didn't happen, Summers was definitely leaning towards the door.
Economists tend to have large egos about how smart they are about the "dark science." I have met more then a few of them.

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@realjohnboy,

rjb, Good inside info that most of us were unawares about the infighting. I'd get rid of Bernanke too! LOL

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@roger,

Here is the viewpoint of Greg Mankiw who headed Bush's council of Economic Advisors for 2 years before he left to return to Harvard to teach.

http://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/

Quote:

(FYI, I left my CEA job in February 2005 after being in Washington for precisely two years.)

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Quote:

http://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/
Larry and Harvard
A reader asks the following about Larry Summers:

The media is saying that Larry is leaving the White House in part because his leave from Harvard is almost up and if he stayed away longer, he'd have to reapply for tenure. From your own experience, is that probably true? I thought universities routinely relaxed such policies for star academics like you and Larry. Also, how prestigious is it to be a university professor?

Different universities have different policies regarding faculty leave for policy jobs, and different degrees of enforcement. Harvard allows two years of leave, and it has the reputation of enforcing the rule rather strictly. I can imagine that Larry could have negotiated an extra semester of leave, but I would have been surprised if the university had extended his leave much beyond that. (FYI, I left my CEA job in February 2005 after being in Washington for precisely two years.)

Also, being a university professor is quite a good deal. Top pay with maximum flexibility regarding teaching etc. As I understand it, you do pretty much whatever you want.

Would Larry have been rehired by Harvard if he resigned and stayed another couple of years in Washington? Unclear. The pro case for rehiring would be that Larry is one of the smartest guys around and has a great deal of fascinating experience to share with students. The con case would be that he has been out of the academic research game for quite a while and that in a time of reduced financial resources, faculty slots should be devoted to younger scholars rather than potentially extinct volcanoes. Ironically, if Larry were on the faculty voting on this matter, the con case is the kind of argument he might have made.

So, while I am sure that Larry's decision had various inputs, Harvard's leave policy was very plausibly one of them.

I can also say that ec 10 students will likely be among the beneficiaries of Larry's return. Larry was a regular guest lecturer in the course, and his lectures were always well received. He does a great job illustrating the connections between economic theory and economic reality.

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@realjohnboy,

realjohnboy wrote:

okie wrote:

Anyone with any great analysis about this, other than it may be a case of the rats abandoning ship...?

I haven't seen Fox News' spin on this. You might want to check other news sources. People like Summers, from Harvard, are allowed a 2 year leave of absence from academia. If they are gone longer then that they lose their tenured positions.
It has worked that way in both Dem & Repub administrations.
Did you know that?

No, I did not know that, and to be honest the only article I read was the news article that he would be leaving. I don't think my initial thought of the rats leaving the ship is that improbable, rjb, because we know that managers of failed policies or another analogy would be members of a losing sports team, it is not uncommon for them to begin to point fingers and perhaps quit the team for another team that has higher hopes of winning it all. That is just basic human nature, and the people working for Obama are humans with human nature, so I figured my observation might be a reasonable guess.

Quote:

By the way, what ever happened to any discussion of economics on this thread?
Did anyone notice, for example, what happened to the price of gold today in light of the Federal Reserve's carefully nuanced comments yesterday regarding the threat of deflation in the U.S.?

I have also noticed the rarity of actual economic discussions, and that is why I posted the news item about Summers leaving. I think the paucity of economic news here is due in part to the fact that there isn't much positive out there to report by Democrats, so its easier to ignore it than confront the reality of it. The reality of it is going to be "Its the economy stupid" during this fall's election if it deesn't improve for the Democrats very soon.

Until we face the reality as a nation the following, we will not solve our economic problems.
“You cannot spend your way to prosperity. You cannot build prosperity by going into debt.”

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@okie,

Quote:

That is just basic human nature, and the people working for Obama are humans with human nature, so I figured my observation might be a reasonable guess.

So then Manikaw left the Bush Council of Economic Advisers after only 2 years because he was leaving a sinking ship? Or does that only apply to liberals okie?

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I am not going to bother combing through our three threads that are essentially identical -- this, American Conservatism and Obama '08 -- in both tone and content, but, okie, in his perpetual state of high dudgeon, wrote that no one he knows ever talks about Elizabeth Warren, let alone in a positive manner (just one of his many lapses of logic) BECAUSE THEY ARE ALL HARD WORKING PEOPLE WHO DON'T HAVE TIME FOR NEWS.

Well, of course, he is going to come on here and accuse me of twisting his words, but, what okie is doing here is approving deliberate ignorance.

okie, along with ican, needs to read Nineteen Eighty-Four. With their support of manipulated news, biases and more, they are the sort of citizens upon which a totalitarian state is built.

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Here is a link to a rather long report from the Center for American Progress which demonstrates that spending cuts alone will not eliminate the deficit.

http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2010/09/thousand_cuts.html

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@realjohnboy,

Quote:

By the way, what ever happened to any discussion of economics on this thread?

I can't help but notice that Parados, George and I have been discussing economics for the last several pages.

Cycloptichorn

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@realjohnboy,

I suspect that not many people would consider Larry Summers as a potential guest for a weekend getaway that involved sharing house.

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@realjohnboy,

While it is true that you have been most diligent is steering this thread back to its original subject, I did post a link to a serious paper this morning. It's not my only weighty or on topic contribution.

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@plainoldme,

Duly noted. Sorry. I guess I was thinking about one of the threads I sort of follow.

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Where is the US economy headed?

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