114
   

Where is the US economy headed?

 
 
Cycloptichorn
 
  2  
Reply Tue 21 Sep, 2010 12:06 pm
@georgeob1,
Quote:
What I described was no "appeal to the extreme": it was typical of a very large number of individual proprietors and entrepreneurs in this country


Actually, it's a very small percentage, not a large one. But, as someone who falls into that percentage, I can see why you have incentive to exaggerate.

Quote:
and it went to the heart of the very data which you enployed as "proof" of your proposition that the tax increases will have no effect.


The graph I presented didn't have anything to do with our earlier conversation. I made that clear in our last exchange, yet you continue to misrepresent my argument here. Please stop.

Quote:
Are you really trying to assert that "5% changes in marginal rates have NEVER materially affected anyone's investment decisions" ? "NEVER" is a very difficult thing to prove.


I looked around; I can't find any evidence that small changes in marginal tax rates have materially affected investment decisions on the part of the wealthy. I also cannot find evidence that people acted any differently under higher-tax conditions in the past. Certainly historical charts and graphs of the US do not provide evidence for your position. Can you present that evidence?!?!

Quote:
What the hell IS your point???


That the upcoming marginal tax increases for the rich will have no meaningful effect on their levels of investment or their economic activity. That the 'concerns' presented by you and others are completely false; they are thinly-veiled arguments for increasing your personal wealth, at the expense of our country's financial situation. That we have seen comparable levels of growth and investment under MUCH higher marginal tax situations.

If you think any of those arguments are wrong, say so. Provide historical evidence (without appealing to extremes, please) that this is so. Otherwise, why should anyone listen to the bitching and moaning of the wealthy?

As Obama put it the other day, these are the citizens who need tax cuts the absolute least. Who have been hurt the least by the recent recession. Whose futures are for the most part secure and comfortable. There is no reason whatsoever to extend tax cuts to them at this time - and arguments such as yours rely on totally unprovable assertions, guesses re: behavior, and ignoring the historical record.

What more, the fact is that you and other Conservatives have played quite the deficit hawk for the last two years; where is your concern for the deficit and debt now? How do you propose to pay for these tax cuts for the rich? I and most others find this newfound willingness to add to the debt on the part of Conservatives to be highly ironic - and revealing.

Cycloptichorn
0 Replies
 
parados
 
  1  
Reply Tue 21 Sep, 2010 12:06 pm
@georgeob1,
Quote:
You are dead wrong on several points. The chart did NOT depict data from all C corporations or even only C corporations, and may not include all small businesses either.

It may not? On what do you base that argument george? You don't want to believe it? Because you certainly aren't basing it on any facts.
A little googling found the source for that chart.
http://www.cbpp.org/cms/index.cfm?fa=view&id=2697#_ftn1

Here is what they used for "small business".
Quote:
The statistics cited in this paper adopt the Bush Administration’s definition of a small business as any tax unit that receives any income (or loss) from a sole proprietorship, farm proprietorship, partnership, S corporation, or rental income
georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Tue 21 Sep, 2010 12:17 pm
@Cycloptichorn,
Cycloptichorn wrote:

You also have a bad habit of ignoring parts of posts that you can't meaningfully respond to. Why would anyone be convinced by argumentation which ignores the need to produce evidence, and which ignores the points which it cannot reasonably support? These are the hallmarks of an unconvincing debater - wouldn't you agree?

Cycloptichorn


I think you would find Socrates also to be an unconvincing debater.

I do generally avoid responding to posts about which I have nothing to offer or about which I don't know much - practices which I believe are good and contribute to better discorse here. However, I have not evaded any criticisms of my posts, though I do not attach the value that evidently you do to weakly related and unconvincing material from the web that can be linked to an argument that is detectably specious at first reading.

In your modified post above you reveal that you have come to learn something about sole proprietorships and S corporations. Good for you. Evidently you would like to see the largest of them, Bechtel is an example, subject to the corporate income tax. That, of course would mean their proceeds would become subject to both State & Federal corporate taxes (40% in most cases) and (assuming their owners pay the top rate) over 50% in individual income taxes, for a combined rate of over 70%. If that is the case, whay not advocate that, instead of hitting all small proprietorships with the adverse economic effects I and others have described. That is a subject that could be debated on itys own merits - though I suspect the proposal would be found to itself have a net negative impact on employment.
parados
 
  1  
Reply Tue 21 Sep, 2010 12:19 pm
@georgeob1,
Quote:
Her business generally grossed a few hundred thousand a year, and she provided a regular source of revenue for her suppliers and artisans. She enjoys the incidental travel to Europe and Asia in search of sources and made a net profit (no salary) of about 8% of the gross. Never has her business income reached the level of the top tax rate: she qualifies among the 98+% of small businesses that Cyclo cited. However, every dollar that she made was taxed at a higher marginal tax rate by both State and Federal governments in filings that included all sources of our income. The forthcoming tax increases will wipe out nearly all of the profit in her business, and that indeed is a significant disincentive. I believe this describes the situation behind a very large component of the data Cyclo so blandly cited.

Let's check george's math and compare it to his claim.

She grossed a few hundred thousand.
Let's call it $500,000
She had a net profit of 8% on the gross.
$500,000 x .08 = $40,000
She was taxed at the highest rate on her income.
Federal top rate is 35%.
We don't know which state but let's assume a 10% rate and ignore the deductions from state taxes.

$40,000 x .45 = $18,000
So she had 22,000 after taxes.

Now let's assume the Federal rate goes back to what it was before at 39.6%
and we still have the 10% state rate
$40,000 x .496 = 19840
And she will take home $20,160.
So she would pay another $1840 in Federal taxes if she was taxed completely in the top rate.


But George said this..
Quote:
The forthcoming tax increases will wipe out nearly all of the profit in her business, and that indeed is a significant disincentive.

George has a funny definition of "nearly all". The tax increase won't wipe out nearly all her profit. It will only reduce her after tax profit by 8%. She will still get almost 92% of the after tax profit if her taxes go up to the old rate.


Quote:
I believe this describes the situation behind a very large component of the data Cyclo so blandly cited.
I don't think it describes Cyclo's data at all. It more accurately describes your inability to understand simple algebra. Instead of actually looking at the numbers you throw out phrases that have no meaning and are clearly false when you claim nearly all her profit would be wiped out.
parados
 
  1  
Reply Tue 21 Sep, 2010 12:20 pm
@georgeob1,
Quote:
It seems to me that it is you who evades issues here - particularly on points where your assertions are found to be flawed or wrong.

And let's see how you respond george when it becomes clear that your assertion was wrong. I'm guessing you will evade the issue.
0 Replies
 
georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Tue 21 Sep, 2010 12:23 pm
@parados,
parados wrote:

A little googling found the source for that chart.
http://www.cbpp.org/cms/index.cfm?fa=view&id=2697#_ftn1

Here is what they used for "small business".
Quote:
The statistics cited in this paper adopt the Bush Administration’s definition of a small business as any tax unit that receives any income (or loss) from a sole proprietorship, farm proprietorship, partnership, S corporation, or rental income



Thanks for the correction on the definition of small business applicable to the chart. However this only reinforces the point I made about the harmful effect the increase in marginel income tax reates will have for such proprietorships that generally constitute only a part of the total income of the individuals who own them.
parados
 
  1  
Reply Tue 21 Sep, 2010 12:24 pm
@georgeob1,
Quote:
However this only reinforces the point I made about the harmful effect the increase in marginel income tax reates will have for such proprietorships that generally constitute only a part of the total income of the individuals who own them.

You mean your point that is incorrect when we actually do the math?
0 Replies
 
georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Tue 21 Sep, 2010 12:33 pm
@parados,
You are ignoring secondary effects. The higher marginal income reduces the value of other tax deductions by raising our AGI and all of it is taxed at the highest marginal rate. The net tax increase is substantially higher than you calculated and, given that even in your own hypothetical calculation the net income reduction due to a 5% increase in the marginal rate is 8.4%, the real effect - closer to about 14% of net income is a real disincentive.

I believe you should be a bit more circumspect in your assertions about algebra.
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Tue 21 Sep, 2010 12:39 pm
@georgeob1,
Quote:
However, I have not evaded any criticisms of my posts


Hah! That's all I can say to that.

Quote:
Evidently you would like to see the largest of them, Bechtel is an example, subject to the corporate income tax.


Sorry, can you link to where I argued that? Because I'm pretty sure that I said nothing of the sort. Indeed, we have been discussing personal tax rates - not corporate ones - and the fact that raising personal income taxes on those who own and operate 'small businesses' will have a negligible overall affect on the economy as a whole.

Not only that, but I'd like to re-focus on the original topic by repeating my initial assertions:

Quote:
That the upcoming marginal tax increases for the rich will have no meaningful effect on their levels of investment or their economic activity. That the 'concerns' presented by you and others are completely false; they are thinly-veiled arguments for increasing your personal wealth, at the expense of our country's financial situation. That we have seen comparable levels of growth and investment under MUCH higher marginal tax situations.


Do you claim that any of these are not true? Especially the last.

Cycloptichorn
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Tue 21 Sep, 2010 12:42 pm
@georgeob1,
georgeob1 wrote:

You are ignoring secondary effects. The higher marginal income reduces the value of other tax deductions by raising our AGI and all of it is taxed at the highest marginal rate. The net tax increase is substantially higher than you calculated and, given that even in your own hypothetical calculation the net income reduction due to a 5% increase in the marginal rate is 8.4%, the real effect - closer to about 14% of net income is a real disincentive.

I believe you should be a bit more circumspect in your assertions about algebra.


Theoretically, if all the net profit on the small business is being taxed at the highest marginal rate already, does that 22k or so really reduce the value of your other deductions by as much as you claim? I'd be interested to hear how this is true.

Cycloptichorn
georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Tue 21 Sep, 2010 12:44 pm
@Cycloptichorn,
You posted a chart depicting the rise in the number of such sole proprietorships and pointed out that some (Bechtel & Price Waterhouse were your examples) have very large earnings that are not subject to the corporate tax and comprise a disproportionate share of the total incomes of such companies. I merely made the obvious deduction.

Evidently I was wrong about the point you were making. What then was your point ?
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Tue 21 Sep, 2010 12:46 pm
@georgeob1,
georgeob1 wrote:

You posted a chart depicting the rise in the number of such sole proprietorships and pointed out that some (Bechtel & Price Waterhouse were your examples) have very large earnings that are not subject to the corporate tax and comprise a disproportionate share of the total incomes of such companies. I merely made the obvious deduction.

Evidently I was wrong about the point you were making. What then was your point ?


The point - which was not hard to understand if you read my posts in depth - is that complaints re: the raising of marginal personal income tax rates and their effect on small businesses are overblown, and that prominent Republicans have been using distortions to claim greatly inflated numbers of both people and capital would be affected. That the vast, vast majority of small businesses wouldn't be materially affected in any way by said tax increases.

Cycloptichorn
0 Replies
 
georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Tue 21 Sep, 2010 12:46 pm
@Cycloptichorn,
Cycloptichorn wrote:

Theoretically, if all the net profit on the small business is being taxed at the highest marginal rate already, does that 22k or so really reduce the value of your other deductions by as much as you claim? I'd be interested to hear how this is true.

Cycloptichorn


Too painful for me to recite. However, you can read the currrent IRS rules for itemized deductions with particular attention to those for AGI based limits and reductions, as well as self-employment taxes (about 9% of earnings), California Use tax (about 3% of total costs) and investment interest if you are curious.
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Tue 21 Sep, 2010 12:54 pm
@georgeob1,
georgeob1 wrote:

Cycloptichorn wrote:

Theoretically, if all the net profit on the small business is being taxed at the highest marginal rate already, does that 22k or so really reduce the value of your other deductions by as much as you claim? I'd be interested to hear how this is true.

Cycloptichorn


Too painful for me to recite. However, you can read the currrent IRS rules for itemized deductions with particular attention to those for AGI based limits and reductions if you are curious.


Yah - I anticipated that you would say this, so I went ahead and did that.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but this:

http://www.irs.gov/publications/p17/ch29.html

Would seem to say that:

Quote:
How Do You Figure the Limit?

If your itemized deductions are subject to the limit, the total of all your itemized deductions is reduced by the smaller of the following reduced by two-thirds:

80% of your itemized deductions that are affected by the limit. See Which Itemized Deductions Are Limited , earlier, or
*

3% of the amount by which your AGI exceeds $166,800 ($83,400 if married filing separately).

Before you figure the overall limit on itemized deductions, you first must complete Schedule A (Form 1040), lines 1 through 28, including any related forms (such as Form 2106, Form 4684, etc.).


I went through the examples with the income levels that you posited (or at least that Parados worked out and you didn't correct) and it seems to me that increasing your AGI by about 22k would reduce the amount you could deduct on itemized expenses by 650 dollars or so. Is this really a meaningful amount, that anyone should be concerned with - given the level of income we're already discussing?

Cycloptichorn
ican711nm
 
  0  
Reply Tue 21 Sep, 2010 01:23 pm
Quote:
The DREAM Act: A Spending Nightmare


The Spendocrats in office right now are attempting to tie the "DREAM Act" as an amendment to the Defense Authorization bill, and will be voting on it tomorrow, Tuesday, September 21 at or around 2:00.

In a nutshell, the DREAM Act will allow the federal government to - again - force the American taxpayers to pony up more money we don't have in order to pay for their ideological pursuits. The DREAM Act will increase the cost of higher education for every state, but especially those with large illegal immigrant populations.

Our states are flat broke and need to reform their budgets, not spend more.

It forces states to give taxpayer funded financial aid to illegal immigrants.

It forces states to allows illegal immigrants to pay in-state tuition.

These provisions can be utilized by illegal immigrants until the age of 35.
There is ZERO accountability in place to track the money and costs.
There is no scoring from the Congressional Budget Office.
There is no estimate of the cost to the American taxpayer for the cost of the education and military benefits, or the cost of the fast track to citizenship also mandated in the bill.

Nancy Pelosi, Harry Reid, and President Obama have not passed a BUDGET for FY2011 which starts in October and they want to spend more without any thought about how much this will cost you and me!

From a lawmaker in California (the state with a $19 Billion shortfall!) on the potential costs: "We're spending roughly a billion dollars annually for financial aid now, so every one percent increase in that spending would translate to an additional $10 Million from the general fund."



Fight back against wasteful, ideological spending that violates all of our principles: fiscal responsibility, constitutionally limited government, and free markets.


0 Replies
 
georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Tue 21 Sep, 2010 01:26 pm
@Cycloptichorn,
You are almost right. Every dollar of her income is above the Itemized deduction threshold, and in some cases of individual deductions there are additional limits and reductions. I also in my original argument failed to include the self employment tax (about 8% of business income) and the California Use tax ( a sneaky way of collecting sales tax on out of state transactions also subject to the sdales tax in other states - it amounts to about 3% of the sale price of goods & services sold). Bottom line is the marginal state & Federal tax on business income is about 61% and adding another 8% to the mix is indeed a very serious disincentive to such activity.
parados
 
  1  
Reply Tue 21 Sep, 2010 01:38 pm
@georgeob1,
Quote:
You are ignoring secondary effects. The higher marginal income reduces the value of other tax deductions by raising our AGI and all of it is taxed at the highest marginal rate. The net tax increase is substantially higher than you calculated and, given that even in your own hypothetical calculation the net income reduction due to a 5% increase in the marginal rate is 8.4%, the real effect - closer to about 14% of net income is a real disincentive.

Even at 14%, it still doesn't come close to what you claimed.
Quote:
The forthcoming tax increases will wipe out nearly all of the profit in her business, and that indeed is a significant disincentive. I


Quote:
I believe you should be a bit more circumspect in your assertions about algebra.
Your loss in deductions is that high if you only earn $40,000 more? I don't buy it george and would like to see your numbers. Since the deductions are a phase out, I don't see how it can reach what you claim. I suspect you are still not being truthful here as you obviously were not truthful with your earlier claim.
0 Replies
 
parados
 
  1  
Reply Tue 21 Sep, 2010 01:42 pm
@georgeob1,
Now you are just playing games with the numbers george. You don't get to pretend that business expenses like sales tax are included in your business profit. That is just nonsense.


The IRS says this
Quote:
Do not deduct state and local sales taxes imposed on the buyer that you must collect and pay over to the state or local government. Also, do not include these taxes in gross receipts or sales.
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  0  
Reply Tue 21 Sep, 2010 01:49 pm
Quote:

http://www.ncpa.org/sub/dpd/index.php?Article_ID=19803&utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=DPD
State Health Exchange Will Slash, Not Boost, Choice

Unless repealed, the new health reform law will require every American not dependent on government health plans like Medicaid or Medicare, or enjoying employer-based benefits, to purchase health insurance in a state-based "exchange" as of January 2014, says John R. Graham, director of health care studies at the Pacific Research Institute.

Massachusetts provides an example of what to expect from these exchanges:

An April 2006 law created an exchange called the Commonwealth Connector, which deploys a politically appointed board to limit people's choice of coverage.

Not surprisingly, limited choice means higher costs.

Economists John Cogan and Daniel Kessler of Stanford University, and R. Glenn Hubbard of Columbia University, found that premiums in Massachusetts increased by 6 percent more than in the rest of the country, and 14 percent more for small businesses, between 2006 and 2008.

California's Legislature has proposed an exchange similar to Massachusetts':

Its most important power would be to "selectively contract" with insurers to offer policies in the exchange. This is fundamentally different from traditional insurance regulation, which concerns solvency, fraud and good-faith claims processing by insurers.

The exchange's bureaucrats would choose the policies available to Californians that Obamacare will force into the exchange.

Worse, the California exchange would persist even if Obamacare is repealed.

Most of us throughout the country will be facing exchanges like Massachusetts' and the one proposed in California, says Graham. Indeed, John Goodman, president, CEO and Kellye Wright Fellow with the National Center for Policy Analysis concluded that any household earning less than $80,000 annually will lose its employer-based benefits and be driven into an exchange.

Source: John R. Graham, "State health exchanges will slash, not boost, choice," San Francisco Examiner, September 9, 2010.

0 Replies
 
parados
 
  1  
Reply Tue 21 Sep, 2010 01:51 pm
@georgeob1,
Quote:
Bottom line is the marginal state & Federal tax on business income is about 61% and adding another 8% to the mix is indeed a very serious disincentive to such activity.

61%?
How do you get to 61?
35(Top Fed rate) + 10.3(top CA rate) + 7.7(1/2 SE) = 53

Your math is still faulty george.
 

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