Where is the US economy headed?

@cicerone imposter,

Your the one defending him, so I'm asking you.
Since he isnt here, and you are, and you are defending him, its logical to ask you the questions.

Remember, thats the standard you held Foxy to, so its only fair that you get held to the same standard.

1 Reply

@mysteryman,

Defending who? I do not always agree with what Obama has done. It's not my problem you haven't read my posts - or understand what I have written.

If Obama makes any promise, I'm not here to answer for him. You need to ask him; quite simple.

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http://media.townhall.com/Townhall/Car/b/cb0611wj20090611022330.jpg

1 Reply

@Foxfyre,

Foxfyre wrote:

Though I disagree with the overall thrust, it's a pretty funny cartoon.

Cycloptichorn

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Where is the economy headed? Thanks to Barack Hussein Obama--into the toilet. Note the article below from today's Wall Street Journal.
***********************************************************
JUNE 12, 2009 Rate Rise Clouds Recovery
By NICK TIMIRAOS and RUTH SIMON
Rising interest rates threaten to dim prospects for a housing recovery and choke off a refinance wave that was a major plank of the Obama administration's economic-stimulus efforts.

On Wednesday, rates on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages climbed to 5.79%, up from 5% two weeks ago, according to HSH Associates. That jump will cut roughly in half the number of borrowers with an incentive to refinance, according to FTN Financial.

Refinance activity at J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. is already "really down" since rates began rising, a spokesman says. A rate of 4.75% "seemed to be the switch" that turned on refinance activity, he says. Now, rates are a full percentage point higher.

View Full Image

Brandon Sullivan

Mike and Joy Gallante have been unable to refinance their mortgage.
"Mortgage rates at these levels will hobble the [housing] recovery, and it was just the beginning of the recovery," says Kenneth Rosen, chairman of the Fisher Center for Real Estate and Urban Economics at the University of California, Berkeley.

Investors have been anxiously watching bond yields climb over the past few weeks, pushing up mortgage rates, which normally track 10-year Treasury notes. The yield on the those briefly hit 4% on Wednesday afternoon for the first time since mid-October before ending the day at 3.937%.

Many policy makers see the rise in Treasury yields as a sign that investors are optimistic that the economy is on the mend. But many market participants say higher long-term bond yields indicate investors are increasingly worried about inflation.

Inflation? What, Me Worry?
2:20
With economic growth, however slow, seen returning later this year, and inflation largely in check, the U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates steady, says WSJ's Phil Izzo.
The Federal Reserve stepped into the market Wednesday to buy Treasurys and announced it will make another round of purchases in a week or so. But the moves seemed to have little effect on rates.

Higher mortgage rates are a blow to borrowers who were looking to refinance and reduce their monthly mortgage payments. Earlier this spring, mortgage rates had fallen below 5%, the lowest in 50 years, unleashing a wave of refinancing activity and spurring housing sales.

Journal Community
Vote: Have Obama administration efforts helped homeowners? The rise in rates represents a setback for the Obama administration's program to help borrowers refinance their mortgages. In March, the government rolled out the Home Affordable Refinance Program, or HARP, to allow certain homeowners who owe between 80% and 105% of their home's current value to take advantage of the low rates. The administration estimated that the program could help four million to five million borrowers refinance.

Underwhelming Response
But Wall Street analysts say refinancing activity under the program was underwhelming, even before rates began to rise. Payoffs were flat last month on loans that would have seen the biggest benefit from the program, including loans originated in 2006 and 2007 with high loan-to-value ratios and high rates, according to Barclays Capital.

The HARP program is limited to loans owned or guaranteed by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac, the housing-finance giants now controlled by the federal government. So far, some 12,710 refinancings have been completed through the program, according to the Treasury Department. Those figures don't include refinancings that have been completed by banks but not yet delivered to Fannie or Freddie. Bank of America Corp., for instance, says that it has completed 17,000 refinancings. By refinancing, borrowers on average have been able to reduce their mortgage rates by 1.3 to 1.5 percentage points, saving around $2,500 annually on a $200,000 loan, according to Freddie Mac.

The program was designed to help borrowers like Mike Gallante who weren't late on their payments but couldn't benefit from lower rates because they didn't have enough equity to refinance. Mr. Gallante, a 45-year-old who works in law enforcement, has a 6.5% rate on his $400,000 mortgage, which is owned by Fannie Mae. But his five-bedroom home in Glendale, Ariz., was appraised at $325,000, putting him above the 105% loan-to-value limit. He paid $530,000 for the home in August 2007.

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Quote:

Without stimulus the global recession would be deeper and longer"and it is a prolonged downturn that does the greatest damage to public finances. But in the long run today’s fiscal laxity is unsustainable. Governments’ thirst for funds will eventually crowd out private investment and reduce economic growth. More alarming, the scale of the coming indebtedness might ultimately induce governments to default or to cut the real cost of their debt through high inflation.

Investors have been fretting on both counts. Worries about default have been focused on weaker countries in the euro area, particularly Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain, where the single currency removes the option of unilateral inflation (see our special report). Ireland’s debt was downgraded for a second time on June 8th. Fears of inflation have concentrated on America, where yields on ten-year Treasuries reached nearly 4% on June 10th; in December the figure was not much above 2%. Much of this rise stems from confidence about economic recovery rather than fiscal alarm. Yet eye-popping deficits and the uncharted nature of today’s monetary policy, with the Federal Reserve (like the Bank of England) printing money to buy government bonds, are prompting concerns that America’s debt might eventually be inflated away.

Justified or not, such worries will themselves wreak damage. The economic recovery could be stillborn if interest rates rise too far too fast. And today’s policy remedies could become increasingly ineffective. Printing more money to buy government debt, for instance, might send long-term bond yields higher rather than lower.

http://www.economist.com/opinion/displayStory.cfm?story_id=13829461&source=hptextfeature

This is pretty much where I am. The noose around Americas neck is getting tighter by the day, the only way to relieve it and avoid rapid inflation or default is to raise taxes AND cut government spending, which will of course negatively impact consumption. I don't see America having the balls to deal with this problem, America is not willing to face reality and do what needs to be done.

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@hawkeye10,

I'm putting a higher % of my income into some .223.

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@hawkeye10,

hawkeye, I disagree. Our country's deficit was over 100% during WWII, and we recovered relatively quickly after the war. Nobody can deny that the cost of the war was worth every penny!

The big difference today is the increase in consumer debt, but it seems Americans who are working are increasing their savings - from fear of losing their jobs. It's probably the wrong cause for savings, but it still results in the same goal.

Given that the consumer and federal deficits began years ago, no stimulus plan is going to turn this around any time soon. However, we are seeing positive signs in our economy - even while we continue to lose more jobs than create them. We can't expect positive employment numbers to outnumber unemployment quickly; that would be a miracle.

Many conservatives on these threads want miracles from Obama's stimulus plan, but that is totally unrealistic born of ignorance. It's a world economic recession.

As I have mentioned often, I do not agree with all of Obama's bailouts and social spending. He should have gradually built them into his initiatives as our economy begins to show improvement.

The fear of inflation is real, but I doubt very much we are currently in danger of seeing inflation when money is still in short supply; only debt has increased, but as I've mentioned earlier, our debt as a percentage of GDP was much higher during WWII, and there was no fear of inflation after the war.

As our currency continues to lose value against our competitors, our debts are reduced, and our products and services become more competitive in the world markets.

As for mortgage interest rates, it may depress the housing market at the current rate, but I remember a time when our mortgage rate was over 6.5%,
and most of us who bought homes didn't go into foreclosure. People are still buying homes at the current rate, and many homes in our area are jumbo loans.

My best guesstimate for a recovery from this world financial crisis is about five years. Most businesses would have become more efficient, and those that survive will produce better products and services that will sustain our economy.

1 Reply

@cicerone imposter,

Post ww2 we had a expanding economy, as the the world, because we needed to rebuild Europe, there is nothing like that in our future. Also, we did not have a nation where a huge chunk of the population was about to go into retirement and thus stop contributing, and to boot we have known for 30 years that we can't afford the SS and health care that they have been promised. But you are right, we also did not have the situation where government, business, and individuals were all massively in hock, post ww2 it was only the government...individuals had a lot of savings, and the books of businesses were solid.

You can't compair post ww2 debt with today's situation.

1 Reply

@hawkeye10,

hawkeye wrote:

Quote:

You can't translate post ww2 debt with today's situation.

Very true! However, that's the reason why I tried to explain situations based on today's economic environment. The debt is but one issue out of many, and the world economy has changed dramatically since WWII; the greater potential world market and competition offers more challenges.

Obama has faith in America and Americans; I do too!

I only hope that Obama's grand scheme works better than most of us anticipates.

1 Reply

@cicerone imposter,

Quote:

Obama has faith in America and Americans; I do too!

Faith in what exactly??? We have a financial system that has been shown to be faulty, but are we working to remake it? Nooooo. We have an education system that is crap but are we going to reform it? Nooo. We have a health care system that costs way more than we can afford , are we on a road to spend less? Noooo. We have infrastructure that is massively decayed, so are we going to rebuild it? Noooo. We need to transition from personal consumption and financial manipulation driving the GDP to something else, but does Obama lay out a plan and also get people prepared for the reality that they will need to live on less consumption from now on?? Nooooo!

Obama is not that kind of guy, he works to build consensus that is already available, he does not want to be out front leading. We need a leader for cripes sake, we are heading onto some very dark days, and we are running out of time to avoid the worst of it.

1 Reply

@hawkeye10,

Quote:

Faith in what exactly??? We have a financial system that has been shown to be faulty, but are we working to remake it? Nooooo.

The financial system isn't broken; it was the laxity of our government that let it fail.

Quote:

We have an education system that is crap but are we going to reform it? Nooo.

Not all school districts are failures, and many schools - even in the "poor" section of cities are producing good students. Have you ever watched the science fairs for high school kids? Many are amazing in what they are doing in the areas of science.

Quote:

We have a health care system that costs way more than we can afford , are we on a road to spend less? Noooo.

You must have missed Obama's speech this morning on our health care system. Try to go to YouTube or the White House web sites, and listen.

Quote:

We have infrastructure that is massively decayed, so are we going to rebuild it? Noooo.

The stimulus plan monies are now being shared with the states and local governments. I have read newspaper reports about the improvements being worked on our highways/roads and transportation systems. Your impatience is showing!

Quote:

We need to transition from personal consumption and financial manipulation driving the GDP to something else, but does Obama lay out a plan and also get people prepared for the reality that they will need to live on less consumption from now on?? Nooooo!

"Financial manipulation" is all part and parcel of any capitalistic system. Personal consumption has gotten sloppy during the past couple of decades, because most of us in developed countries didn't want to wait to buy two-three cars and a summer home - with a tv in every room. Demand for those goods have now been neutralized, because most people have come to realize that their jobs are at stake. If you've paid attention, consumer savings is now on an upward trend.

Quote:

Obama is not that kind of guy, he works to build consensus that is already available, he does not want to be out front leading. We need a leader for cripes sake, we are heading onto some very dark days, and we are running out of time to avoid the worst of it.

Obama is now our leader for at least four years; so get used to it. He's been recruiting the best and brightest financial gurus in our country which is a 200% improvement over Bush's team (most were declared incompetent - including Bush). You're doing the same thing many of the conservatives on these threads are saying - that Obama is already a failure. How do you know when the skilled economists at universities are in conflict?

There are signs in our economy that are encouraging; the stock market isn't taking a nose-dive this year as most pundits expected. The DOW has pretty much stayed in the 7000 to 8500 range. Investors are feeling more confident in our economy; if that were not so, the DOW would have stayed under 8000 since January.

You say "we are headed into some dark days" but fail to tell us when and why? You do remember what FDR said ""Only Thing We Have to Fear Is Fear Itself."

1 Reply

@cicerone imposter,

Quote:

The financial system isn't broken; it was the laxity of our government that let it fail.

Let's see, we have massive bubbles (misallocation of resources) and a failure to judge risk, plus massive price instability....that adds up to an financial system that does not work.

Quote:

Not all school districts are failures, and many schools - even in the "poor" section of cities are producing good students. Have you ever watched the science fairs for high school kids? Many are amazing in what they are doing in the areas of science.

There are always exceptions to everything, however on average the American gets a horrible education compared to Europe and Asia.

Quote:

You must have missed Obama's speech this morning on our health care system. Try to go to YouTube or the White House web sites, and listen

His plan is to pay doctors and hospitals less per event, doctors are already getting relatively poor pay and hospitals are awash in red ink. The entire medical system is on the brink of collapse because we don't pay as we go, paying less is not at option. We must keep people more healthy and ration care, until Obama steps up to the plate with a combination of these two he has nothing.

Quote:

The stimulus plan monies are now being shared with the states and local governments. I have read newspaper reports about the improvements being worked on our highways/roads and transportation systems. Your impatience is showing!

the stimulous will cover the loss from gas tax as people drive less, and a bit more, but is not even close to being on a scale to make a game changing improvement for roads and bridges. As for stuff other than roads the stimulous does very little, $10 billion for HSR is seed money nothing else, the electric grid needs are barely addressed, and the water system needs are not at all.

Quote:

Financial manipulation" is all part and parcel of any capitalistic system. Personal consumption has gotten sloppy during the past couple of decades, because most of us in developed countries didn't want to wait to buy two-three cars and a summer home - with a tv in every room. Demand for those goods have now been neutralized, because most people have come to realize that their jobs are at stake. If you've paid attention, consumer savings is now on an upward trend.

Individuals who have the income to allow it are doing what is in their best long term interests, this is true. But what is going to drive our economy now if we are going to stop creating bubbles and also cut back on personal consumption of goods and services? Obama does not have a plan.

Quote:

Obama is now our leader for at least four years; so get used to it. He's been recruiting the best and brightest financial gurus in our country which is a 200% improvement over Bush's team (most were declared incompetent - including Bush). You're doing the same thing many of the conservatives on these threads are saying - that Obama is already a failure. How do you know when the skilled economists at universities are in conflict?

There are signs in our economy that are encouraging; the stock market isn't taking a nose-dive this year as most pundits expected. The DOW has pretty much stayed in the 7000 to 8500 range. Investors are feeling more confident in our economy; if that were not so, the DOW would have stayed under 8000 since January.

You say "we are headed into some dark days" but fail to tell us when and why? You do remember what FDR said ""Only Thing We Have to Fear Is Fear Itself."

Jesus, you and your addiction to the DOW. Equity markets long ago stop being about value, they are now on par with Sports betting at Vegas, the number speak to the emotional state of those making the beats not the value of the companies being bet on.

We have a financial system that does not work, a poorly educated work force, no where near enough jobs with a living wage to support families and no prospects for getting anywhere near enough, a political system that does not work, and we are in hock up to our necks with few options remaining....things are not looking too good for us.

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@hawkeye10,

In my opinion, the Federal government as our Founders intended was not designed to 'work'. It was designed to do what was necessary to defend us against our enemies, secure our unalienable rights, and otherwise set sufficient rules in place to allow for effective commerce and industry while preventing us from doing violence to each other. Then it was intended that the government would serve as referee to enforce the rules of the game, but would otherwise stay out of our way and let us play it.

As the government obviously can't fix the problems that we now have, I vote as much as is reasonably possible to go back to something closer to the Founder's concept. We couldn't do any worse.

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@Foxfyre,

Quote:

In my opinion, the Federal government as our Founders intended ...

More of this silly lunacy.

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@Foxfyre,

Quote:

In my opinion, the Federal government as our Founders intended was not designed to 'work'. It was designed to do what was necessary to defend us against our enemies, secure our unalienable rights, and otherwise set sufficient rules in place to allow for effective commerce and industry while preventing us from doing violence to each other. Then it was intended that the government would serve as referee to enforce the rules of the game, but would otherwise stay out of our way and let us play it.

Great, but we currently have a global economy where national governments do for the most part fight for their citizens best interests. If the American government were to opt out the American citizens would eat dust. We can debate what the founders intended, what they idealized, but they were not idiots...they would never have allowed any desire they might have for limited government substantially hurt Americans. They would have said that in a global economy the nation must stay organized and strong, just as states must stay organized and strong in a confederation of states.

1 Reply

@hawkeye10,

Let's see, we have massive bubbles (misallocation of resources) and a failure to judge risk, plus massive price instability....that adds up to an financial system that does not work.

Those "massive bubbles" were exacerbated by greed; the banks and finance companies gave loans to people who could never repay the loans while they created over-valued derivatives that they traded at ever increasing values that were never there. The SEC failed to do their jobs.

There are always exceptions to everything, however on average the American gets a horrible education compared to Europe and Asia.

There will always exist "exceptions to everything," but the difference is the opportunities provided to the American educated student. The US still provides the most in R&D, and investments in new companies.

His plan is to pay doctors and hospitals less per event, doctors are already getting relatively poor pay and hospitals are awash in red ink. The entire medical system is on the brink of collapse because we don't pay as we go, paying less is not at option. We must keep people more healthy and ration care, until Obama steps up to the plate with a combination of these two he has nothing.

Most doctors are not "underpaid." My nephew works at Queens Hospital in Honolulu as an Intensivist, and his salary is around $300 grand. On average, doctors still enjoy the highest pay.

the stimulus will cover the loss from gas tax as people drive less, and a bit more, but is not even close to being on a scale to make a game changing improvement for roads and bridges. As for stuff other than roads the stimulus does very little, $10 billion for HSR is seed money nothing else, the electric grid needs are barely addressed, and the water system needs are not at all.

We all see urgency in different ways; it's no different for Obama and his team of advisors. I'm sure they're prioritizing their projects to invest in the long-term health of our economy. If you have a better plan, write to Obama; he's willing to listen to advice. (I've never heard Bush make this kind of offer during his eight years in office.)

Individuals who have the income to allow it are doing what is in their best long term interests, this is true. But what is going to drive our economy now if we are going to stop creating bubbles and also cut back on personal consumption of goods and services? Obama does not have a plan.

You just don't see the "plan," because you always see the glass as half empty.

Jesus, you and your addiction to the DOW. Equity markets long ago stop being about value, they are now on par with Sports betting at Vegas, the number speak to the emotional state of those making the beats not the value of the companies being bet on.

You may believe whatever you wish about the stock market, but without commercial enterprise and its ability to provide long-term rewards for investing, all capitalism will cease to exist. Your fear mongering will get you nowhere.

We have a financial system that does not work, a poorly educated work force, no where near enough jobs with a living wage to support families and no prospects for getting anywhere near enough, a political system that does not work, and we are in hock up to our necks with few options remaining....things are not looking too good for us.

Go back to what FDR said. Your fears are irrational without any hope for our future.

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@hawkeye10,

Read again. In no place in my entire quote did I suggest that government 'opt out' of what it alone is designed to do. One of those things it was designed to do was to regulate both interstate and foreign commerce. What I want the Federal government to 'opt out' of are those things that were intended for the private sector to do.

1 Reply

@cicerone imposter,

Quote:

June, 2003 - Present

SPECIALTY
Years 1-2
>3
Max

Allergy/ Immunology
$158,000
$221,000
$487,000
Ambulatory $ 80,000 $112,000 $152,000
Anesthesiology: Pediatrics $ 283,000 $311,000 $378,000

Anesthesiology: General

$207,000
$275,000
$448,000

Anesthesiology: Pain Management

$315,000
$370,000
$651,000

Cardiology: Invasive

$258,000
$395,000
$647,000

Cardiology: Interventional

$290,000
$468,000
$811,000

Cardiology: Noninvasive

$268,000
$403,000
$599,000

Critical Care

$187,000
$215,000
$320,000

Dermatology

$ 195,000
$308,000
$452,000

Emergency Medicine

$192,000
$216,000
$295,000

Endocrinology
$171,000
$187,000
$260,000

FP (with OB)
$182,000
$204,000
$241,000

FP (w/o OB)
$161,000
$135,000
$239,000
FP - Sports Medicine $ 152,000 $208,000 $363,000
FP - Urgent Care $ 128,000 $198,000 $299,000

Gastroenterology
$265,000
$349,000
$590,000

Hematology/Oncology
$181,348
$245,000
$685,000

Infectious Disease
$154,000
$178,000
$271,000

Internal Medicine
$154,000
$176,000
$238,000

IM (Hospitalist)
$161,000
$172,000
$245,000

Medicine/Pediatrics $139,000 $168,000 $271,000
Medical Oncology
$198,000
$257,000 $455,000

Neonatal Medicine
$286,000
$310,000
$381,000

Nephrology
$191,000
$269,000
$447,000

Neurology
$180,000
$228,000
$345,000

Obstetrics/Gynecology
$211,000
$261,000
$417,000

Gynecology
$159,000
$213,000
$358,000

Maternal/Fetal Medicine
$286,000
$322,000
$610,000

Occupational Medicine
$139,000
$185,000
$290,000

Ophthalmology
$138,000
$314,000
$511,000

Ophthalmology Retina
$280,000
$469,000
$716,000

Orthopedic Surgery
$256,000
$342,000
$670,000

ORS - Foot & Ankle
$228,000
$392,000
$791,000

ORS - Hand & Upper Extremities
$288,000
$459,000
$770,000

ORS - Hip & Joint Replacement
$330,000
$491,000
$715,000

ORS - Spine Surgery
$398,000
$670,000
$1,352,000

ORS - Sports Medicine
$266,000
$479,000
$762,000

Otorhinolaryngology
$194,000
$311,000
$516,000

Pathology
$169,000
$321,000
$610,000

Pediatrics
$135,000
$175,000
$271,000

Pediatrics - Cardiology
$145,000
$282,000
$607,000
Pediatrics - Critical Care
$196,000 $259,000 $398,000

Pediatrics - Hematology/Oncology
$182,000
$217,000
$251,000

Pediatrics - Neurology
$175,000
$189,000
$362,000

Physiatry
$169,000
$244,000
$313,000

Podiatry
$128,000
$168,000
$292,000

Psychiatry
$149,000
$169,000
$238,000

Psychiatry - Child and Adolescent
$158,000
$189,000
$265,000

Pulmonary Medicine + Critical Care
$215,000
$288,000
$417,000

Radiation Oncology
$241,000
$385,000
$787,000

Radiology
$201,000
$354,000
$911,000

Rheumatology
$179,000
$229,000
$378,000

Surgery - General
$226,000
$291,000
$520,000

Surgery - Cardiovascular
$336,000
$515,000
$811,000

Surgery - Neurologica
$354,000
$541,000
$936,000

Surgery - Plastic
$237,000
$412,000
$820,000

Surgery - Vascular
$270,000
$329,000
$525,000

Urology
$261,000
$358,000
$619,000

SOURCE: Allied Physicians, Inc., Los Angeles Times and Rand McNally

*Updated June, 2006

1 Reply

@Foxfyre,

Quote:

Read again. In no place in my entire quote did I suggest that government 'opt out' of what it alone is designed to do. One of those things it was designed to do was to regulate both interstate and foreign commerce. What I want the Federal government to 'opt out' of are those things that were intended for the private sector to do.

The American Private sector can not go head to head with national governments which are promoting their citizens interests, and win. American private sector interests need to be in a team effort with the American government....which is totally contrary to your desires.

2 Replies

Where is the US economy headed?

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