real life
 
  1  
Reply Sun 27 Nov, 2005 11:28 pm
rosborne979 wrote:
real life wrote:
Hmmmm now where have I heard that before? All humans descended from a very small group.....from just 1 geographical location......let's see......


Well, count yourself lucky that I introduced you to the Toba event because you now have new evidence for the story of Noah. Except that it all happened 75k years ago. So much for Usher's 4k year old Earth.

The evidence for a population collapse associated with the Toba eruption has become quite strong in recent years, especially with the advent of genetic sequencing. But none of this is necessary to demolish your population arguments, they are absurd for any number of reasons, only a few of which have already been listed.

You need to pluck another argument from your bag of creationist bologna. This one isn't worthy of you. Find something that's less obviously flawed.


As I mentioned, that still leaves 3 million years of population growth between Lucy and Toba. That's a lot of folks to account for. Did you do the math? Probably not. You may have no idea how large a number you are up against.

Where is the evidence for these pre-Toba civilizations(assuming that the Toba event was as devastating as you seem to believe, but that's still open for lots of debate)? Lots of bodies, artifacts etc to account for. These should be very abundant since we have been able to excavate remains and artifacts that are much 'older' than 75,000 years. Surely you aren't going to say that this large number of people (look at all those 0's) left virtually no trace?

Again, is there evidence of the near extinction of nearly all other life due to this event? You may have mentioned it but I don't think so. An event of this impact would obviously have caused the near extinction of much of the rest of the world's ecosystems at the same time, wouldn't it? There doesn't seem to be any indication of this however, does there?

Other human lines, such as Neanderthal, supposedly are extant 20,000 years after the Toba event, aren't they? Are you suggesting that their 'extinction' is related to Toba?

(BTW is there any historical record or cultural memory of this near extinction by volcano/ice age? Most civilizations DO have a cultural memory of a near extinction of the race by a FLOOD. But I haven't seen similar details of each civilization having any tradition of a volcano or an ensuing ice age that wiped out all but a few. Surely if this event was as devastating as you seem to believe, it wouldn't be completely forgotten would it? But nothing, eh? Not in ancient cave paintings, not in oral tradition, etc? )
0 Replies
 
real life
 
  1  
Reply Sun 27 Nov, 2005 11:37 pm
rosborne979 wrote:
real life wrote:
If the planets were 'spun' out into their orbits as postulated, they should all have the same direction of rotation, should they not?


Unless they were impacted by another massive object... which we know happens... and which (theory predicts) would happen more frequently and with larger objects back in the early solar system.

Are we going to leave biological evolution and move on to stellar mechanics now?


Yes it's quite interesting as I mentioned at the beginning of this line of discussion that the common response is 'well there was this collision, see.....'

Catastrophic collisions of three of the planets are invoked to explain their retrograde motion, another catastrophic collision is postulated for one planet to deprive it of the atmosphere that it 'should' have, and another planet was stripped of lighter density material leaving an extremely dense core by a gigantic collision, etc.

Problem is there is no evidence of the massive damage that such planet altering collisions would leave in their wake.
0 Replies
 
timberlandko
 
  1  
Reply Sun 27 Nov, 2005 11:42 pm
"The difference between genious and stupidity is that genious has limits"
A. Einstein


"There is little point trying to make anything foolproof; no sooner do you succeed than nature produces a superior fool"
Unknown - prolly an IT pro
0 Replies
 
real life
 
  1  
Reply Sun 27 Nov, 2005 11:49 pm
username wrote:
real, you're extrapolating backward from the last century or so when you think about population increase, and it just doesn't work, because the last century has been really anomalous in terms of human population, largely because of improvements in public health and agriculture.

No population grows unchecked. No animal can grow beyond the limits of its food supply. Which is why we're not overrrun by billions of chipmunks or bears or tigers. The carrying capacity of the land imposes limits. Until humans developed agriculture, hunter-gathering imposed strict limits. Agriculture expanded them, but there were and still are strict limits. You know all those biblical famines? They wiped out millions of people. Still do in areas with weak infrastructure where foods can't be transported to the area.

Disease wiped out millions more. Until the 20th century, cities were population sinks--people died of density-dependent diseases faster than they reproduced. The only way the population stayed constant or grew was by continual in-migration from the countryside. Europe took three centuries ffor its population to recover to pre-Black Death levels. And plagues and diseases (smallpox, e.g., took a huge toll)swept everywhere until the last century. When Europeans conquered the Americas, diseases wiped out about 95% of the indigenous population--an extreme example, but diease wiped out billions of us. Childbirth too was the greatest cause of death for women until the last century--far eclipsing any other cause and making being a woman far more hazardous than being a man. Public health and sanitation changed all that for most of the world (including the developing countries) in the 20th century.

In other words, you and most people have completely forgotten how precarious life has been for most of our history. Human increase was by no means a given and by no means linear, and not always with a positive sign. So "doing the math", even at .01% is an exercise in totally meaningless demographics. It's just pulling a figure out of a hat, with no correspondence to reality.

And the human genetic crunch does not correesond to any extinction event in other animals--its just us. There was a similar crunch amongst cheetahs, but nowhere around the same time, for example. To simplify, it's calculable by looking at the genetic variability in humans today, which is very small as compared to most species, and comparing that with the mutation rate, and calculating how long it would have taken to produce the observed figure. And that comes out about 100K. Genetically it's completely absured to think a population of 12 or 8 or whatever it was allegely in the ark 4300 years ago would have that genetic diversity today (or wouldn't have inbred so much with so many recessives that we wouldn't all be dead today).


Funny you should say this.

The areas of the world today where food is scarcest, health is poorest and luxury the least are also the areas with (by far) the greatest population growth in many instances.

The richer, healthier countries are not at all keeping pace with the blistering pace of population growth that these poorer , disease ridden nations have.

The 0.01% population growth rate I suggested calculating is NOT what I actually think the growth rate has ever been. It is artificially low to demonstrate that, even at ridiculously low levels, 3 million years of population growth would have produced unbelievable numbers of humans long before modern times.

Even throwing supposed disasters such as Toba into the mix, populations prior to Toba would have reached huge proportions.
0 Replies
 
timberlandko
 
  1  
Reply Sun 27 Nov, 2005 11:55 pm
exhibiting what some say is equivalent to bliss, rl wrote:
Even throwing supposed disasters such as Toba into the mix, populations prior to Toba would have reached huge proportions.

Then why isn't Manhattan crawling with pandas[/i][/b]? Honestly, rl, the "population growth" thing is one of the dumbest propositions in the Creationist toolkit.
0 Replies
 
timberlandko
 
  1  
Reply Mon 28 Nov, 2005 12:13 am
Just to look at it from another perspective, environmental equilibrium is a brick wall - without a major change in the environment, such as the disappearance of a predator, the introduction of a new foodsource, the opening up of previously inhospitable territory, or in the case of humankind, agriculture, civilization, urbanization, and advancing technology, a population of anything cannot expand beyond the limits of its natural environment to support - either the environment goes (and the population with it), or the population goes; either way, except for latter-day humans - who cheat the system by constructing artificial environments for themselves - the population does not exceed the capacity of its natural environment to support. That's what lemming stampedes are all about.
0 Replies
 
yitwail
 
  1  
Reply Mon 28 Nov, 2005 12:28 am
timber, lemmings don't hurl themselves off cliffs as a rule, except in staged Disney documentaries. but you were probably checking to see if anyone was paying attention. Razz

http://www.snopes.com/disney/films/lemmings.htm
0 Replies
 
timberlandko
 
  1  
Reply Mon 28 Nov, 2005 12:31 am
I know the lemming thing is a put-on, but there's just the outside chance ..... naaahhhh, not even rl would go for that Twisted Evil


I was gonna say "thats what famine and pestilence are all about", but "lemming stampedes" had a better ring to it Laughing
0 Replies
 
spendius
 
  1  
Reply Mon 28 Nov, 2005 06:13 am
I had thought that c.i. could read until I saw this-

Quote:
Hey, people, is spendius back-peddling? Sounds like he's now on the defensive


I've already told you that I'm only in first gear anyway.
0 Replies
 
spendius
 
  1  
Reply Mon 28 Nov, 2005 06:35 am
timber's post on p 566

Quote:
Posted: Sun Nov 27, 2005 10:18 pm Post: 1694322 -


An orgy of teleology I'm afraid as is everything else which relates humans to animals in relation to behaviour.
0 Replies
 
timberlandko
 
  1  
Reply Mon 28 Nov, 2005 07:35 am
Care to provide substantiation for that assessment, spendi? Just what of the story of the human condition do archaeology, anthropology, and history get wrong?
0 Replies
 
rosborne979
 
  1  
Reply Mon 28 Nov, 2005 07:37 am
real life wrote:
Yes it's quite interesting as I mentioned at the beginning of this line of discussion that the common response is 'well there was this collision, see.....'


And does that make it incorrect? No.

Especially in light of the obvious nature of planetary growth (which I mentioned).

real life wrote:
Problem is there is no evidence of the massive damage that such planet altering collisions would leave in their wake.


And you say this because you are an expert in impact and materials mechanics? Give me a break, you don't even understand evolutionary theory and population growth. And now you're going to challenge orbital mechanics.
0 Replies
 
spendius
 
  1  
Reply Mon 28 Nov, 2005 08:23 am
timber wrote

Quote:
Care to provide substantiation for that assessment, spendi? Just what of the story of the human condition do archaeology, anthropology, and history get wrong?


As I've said earlier there are things which are "hid".
The human being is not an animal and no valid comparison can be made regarding behaviour with animals.Mankind's reproductive rates are not subject to deterministic criteria.The male animal is on a reflex.

Why did Augustus introduce laws to try to get the state more babies and which class in Rome fought that legislation the most fiercely and defeat it.That class didn't have the sort of controls you mentioned.

And why was the Aboriginal population stable for what they think is 25,000 years despite having plentiful food and a healthy outdoor lifestyle.

Why was the birth rate in England 2.95/woman in 1964 and 1.63 in 2001.What factors in your post caused that.

If average age at marriage is 20 you get five generations per 100 years and if it is 25 four.What factors in your post cause such a change.Animals copulate as soon as the female is capable of reproduction and not before.In humans this age is about 13.What factors in your post lead to your age of consent being 18 (I'm told).It's 16 here.

What factors in your post lead to the huge discrepancy between the number of babies a woman has and the number she is capable of (22-5).

What factors in your post lead to normal women choosing to avoid reproduction altogether.And suppose they all did on a mass fertility strike organised by well to do feminist writers.

What factors in your post cause reproductively capable men to cease reproductive activity when their wife does which is roughly 30 years earlier.

History,archeology and to a lesser extent anthropology do tend to produce a record of ruling elites and are also distorted to some extent by the sensitivities of researchers which is one of the reasons why the Vatican library is so difficult of access.

I've recently been told that the Australian government give a $A 3000 grant to a mother on production of a baby.We do something similar but much less crudely.They get a house and a grant to pay the rent.France is currently engaged on a policy of increasing the population.

The natural assets of the US are worthless without a certain number of people to exploit them.

What do you think is the optimum population size of the US and do you think there are think tanks trying to work it out and when they have decide how to get there.
0 Replies
 
farmerman
 
  1  
Reply Mon 28 Nov, 2005 09:37 am
S Ambrose did a paper on the "bottleneck" mechanics and human population dispersal. "Late Plesitocene human population bottlenecks, volcanic winters, and differentoation of modern humans" its in the Journal of Human Evolution 1998. .
The population of Homo () left Africa in 2 waves, the latest about 100K BCe. This corresponded with the latest interglacial stage. Its a well known fact that mutations within interons of the genome increase with time. Suddenly, at a time subsequent to Toba we have a huge bottleneck that is preserved in todays DNA. The loss of the mutational diversity has been surpressed at the Toba eruption (there was a subsequent compression and mtDNA coalescence which gave rise to a "Common Eve" hypothesis.).


As far as the rotational issue of the planets. Im still curious how this has any remote interference with a discussion on evolution.
I quickly looked up the axes of rotation of the three planets and found that venus, Uranus, and pluto are also the only planets with extreme axial angles to their planes of orbit. Yet they a;; orbit the same direction.
Even assuming that you have some valid point about planetary accretion theory , what possible effect do your sources have to say about this casting doubt on organic evolution on earth?
0 Replies
 
farmerman
 
  1  
Reply Mon 28 Nov, 2005 09:47 am
real life
Quote:
As I mentioned, that still leaves 3 million years of population growth between Lucy and Toba. That's a lot of folks to account for. Did you do the math? Probably not.
. What authority do you have to state that? Lucy was a separate GENUS that was in the hominid group, since Lucy , weve discovered at least 10 hominid genus and species (probably more if you follow all the small populations of other Australopithicenes).
Your logic , as well as your "evidence" is highly suspect.
0 Replies
 
Algis Kemezys
 
  1  
Reply Mon 28 Nov, 2005 09:55 am
That location could very well be Crete. Or rather a coupling of that and this took place near there or Egypt.
0 Replies
 
rosborne979
 
  1  
Reply Mon 28 Nov, 2005 10:16 am
farmerman wrote:
As far as the rotational issue of the planets. Im still curious how this has any remote interference with a discussion on evolution


I think the point is to cast doubt on every aspect of scientific knowledge to imply that if we don't know "such and such a thing", then how can we know anything about the next "such and such a thing", evolution being the ultimate target of the creationist paranoia.

This is the "science doesn't work because we're too stupid to understand the world" argument, which when followed to its logical conclusion leads to the "why even try, let's believe in poofism" worldview. It's a classic. I love it.
0 Replies
 
Steve 41oo
 
  1  
Reply Mon 28 Nov, 2005 10:21 am
evolution revolution, its all the same to a creationist
0 Replies
 
Setanta
 
  1  
Reply Mon 28 Nov, 2005 10:51 am
Rosborne, i'm grown weary with thinking . . . can you direct me to the appropriate temple so that i can sign on with Poofism and forget my troubles?
0 Replies
 
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Mon 28 Nov, 2005 11:09 am
rosborne, Point well taken; if those same religionists would question their own creationist beliefs as they do the science of evolution, they would surely find some answers.
0 Replies
 
 

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