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Global Warming...New Report...and it ain't happy news

 
 
parados
 
  2  
Reply Sun 17 May, 2015 09:26 am
@Ionus,
It's amazing how you can remember things that never happened.

I tell you what. I will bet you that based on current science I can predict that the poles will be ice free at some time in the future. What are you willing to bet?
Ionus
 
  1  
Reply Sun 17 May, 2015 11:22 pm
@parados,
Quote:
I will bet you that based on current science I can predict that the poles will be ice free at some time in the future. What are you willing to bet?
Thats nothing . I will bet you that the poles have been ice free in the past and will be again in the future based on REAL science . What are you willing to bet ?
Ionus
 
  1  
Reply Mon 18 May, 2015 01:06 am
1. The Mean Global Temperature has been stable since 1997,

2. 57% of the cumulative anthropic emissions since the beginning of the Industrial revolution have been emitted since 1997,

3. The amount of CO2 of the air from anthropic emissions is today no more than 6% of the total CO2 in the air

4. The lifetime of CO2 molecules in the atmosphere is about 5 years instead of the 100 years said by IPCC.

5. The changes of the Mean Global Temperature are more or less sinusoidal with a well defined 60 year period. We are at a maximum of the sinusoid(s) and hence the next years should be cooler as has been observed after 1950.

6. The absorption of the radiation from the surface by the CO2 of the air is nearly saturated.

7. In some geological periods the CO2 content of the air has been up to 20 times today’s content, and there has been no runaway temperature increase

8. The sea level is increasing by about 1.3 mm/year according to the data of the tide-gauges

9. The “hot spot” in the inter-tropical high troposphere is, according to all “models” and to the IPCC reports, the indubitable proof of the water vapour feedback amplification of the warming: it has not been observed and does not exist.

10. The water vapour content of the air has been roughly constant since more than 50 years but the humidity of the upper layers of the troposphere has been decreasing: the IPCC foretold the opposite to assert its “positive water vapourfeedback” with increasing CO2. The observed “feedback” is negative.

11. The maximum surface of the Antarctic ice-pack has been increasing every year since we have satellite observations.

12. The sum of the surfaces of the Arctic and Antarctic icepacks is about constant, their trends are phase-opposite; hence their total albedo is about constant.

13. The measurements from the 3000 oceanic ARGO buoys since 2003 may suggest a slight decrease of the oceanic heat content between the surface and a depth 700 m with very significant regional differences.

14. The observed outgoing longwave emission (or thermal infrared) of the globe is increasing, contrary to what models say on a would-be “radiative imbalance”; the “blanket” effect of CO2 or CH4 “greenhouse gases” is not seen.

15. The Stefan Boltzmann formula does not apply to gases, as they are neither black bodies, nor grey bodies: why does the IPCC community use it for gases ?

16. The trace gases absorb the radiation of the surface and radiate at the temperature of the air which is, at some height, most of the time slightly lower that of the surface. The trace-gases cannot “heat the surface“, according to the second principle of thermodynamics which prohibits heat transfer from a cooler body to a warmer body.

17. The temperatures have always driven the CO2 content of the air, never the reverse. Nowadays the net increment of the CO2 content of the air follows very closely the inter-tropical temperature anomaly.

18. The CLOUD project at the European Center for Nuclear Research is probing the Svensmark-Shaviv hypothesis on the role of cosmic rays modulated by the solar magnetic field on the low cloud coverage; the first and encouraging results have been published in Nature.

19. Numerical “Climate models” are not consistent regarding cloud coverage which is the main driver of the surface temperatures. Project Earthshine(Earthshine is the ghostly glow of the dark side of the Moon) has been measuring changes of the terrestrial albedo in relation to cloud coverage data; according to cloud coverage data available since 1983, the albedo of the Earth has decreased from 1984 to 1998, then increased up to 2004 in sync with the Mean Global Temperature.

20. The forecasts of the “climate models” are diverging more and more from the observations

21. As said by IPCC in its TAR (2001) “we are dealing with a coupled non-linear chaotic system, and therefore the long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible.” Has this state of affairs changed since 2001? Surely not for scientific reasons.

22. IPCC is neither a scientific organization nor an independent organization: the summary for policy makers, the only part of the report read by international organizations, politicians and media is written under the very close supervision of the representative of the countries and of the non-governmental pressure groups. The governing body of the IPCC is made of a minority of scientists almost all of them promoters of the environmentalist ideology, and a majority of state representatives and of non-governmental green organizations.
0 Replies
 
MontereyJack
 
  1  
Reply Mon 18 May, 2015 01:36 am
That's crap "science", Ionus, as you would know if you ever read any of the actual research and actual numbers.
Quote:
Open Mind
Science, Politics, Life, the Universe, and Everything
Skip to contentHomeClimate Data Links ← Florida Sea LevelTemperature Data Update →Catch 22. No.1.
Posted on May 13, 2015 | 29 Comments
From time to time the boys at WUWT and elsewhere, rather than dole nonsense in bite-size morsels, are so kind as to serve up a compendium, a cornucopia if you will. I know they truly want to persuade people that man-made global warming is no problemo, but I wonder whether they’re quite aware of what they’re doing; this kind of bounty doesn’t do their image much good.

In a recent post, Jean-Pierre Bardinet outlines what he refers to as “22 Very Inconvenient Climate Truths,” which he subtitles “Here are 22 good reasons not to believe the statements made by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).”


Here’s #1:


1. The Mean Global Temperature has been stable since 1997, despite a continuous increase of the CO2 content of the air: how could one say that the increase of the CO2 content of the air is the cause of the increase of the temperature?


Seriously? Do you have to lead with something so wrong?

For those at home, let me explain what “stable since 1997″ really means. It means that if you look at the trend of global temperature, but you don’t start looking until just the right moment, then it might look like it might be “stable” maybe.

Here are yearly average global temperature anomalies since 1970, all the way up to the latest full calendar year, 2014 (yeah, the hottest year on record):



There certainly is a warming trend there.

Did you pick some moment when things got really hot so you could psych yourself into believing that today’s trend, the real trend, doesn’ start until then? Like maybe, after 1997?



If the warming trend did change at that time, did you compute what it would look like? ‘Cause if we use least squares regression to compute a trend which is allowed to change its warming rate at that very moment, well by golly it looks like this:



Is that what you call “stable since 1997″?

Or do you think the trend didn’t just change at that time, earth’s temperature just suddenly jumped up? (That really doesn’t make sense, but that’s hardly an impediment to nonsense.) If so, did you compute what the trend would look like? ‘Cause it looks like this:



For the several actual graphs, which appear in the gaps above, check out the rebuttal at Sceptical Sckience.
2 is probably right, but their conclusion, which follows in 3, is bogus. Analysis of the changing isotopes of oxygen in the atmosphere show that the change in CO2 is conclusively due to fossilk fuels, and that is 1/3 again as much as CO2 concentration from pre-industrial levels. That's abournd 33$%
not 6%.
4. The 100 year lifetime is not something the IPC came up with on its own. That's the established gfigure, from wel before the IPCC came into existence.
what the hell does CO2 heat is nearly saturated mean? There's no indication of anything like that, whatever the loon who posited these points might mean.

That's just the first few. The rest are no better, but I've got to go to sleep. Parados is competent to continue demolishing them. Totally bogus the lot of them.
MontereyJack
 
  1  
Reply Mon 18 May, 2015 01:40 am
16 is egregiously bad too. Greenhouse gases absorb the infrared radiation re-radiated after absorption by the earth. Some is re-emitted toward space. Some is re-radiated back earthward, which warms the troposphere and ultimately the earth and the oceans. No violation of trhe second law of thermodynamics.
MontereyJack
 
  1  
Reply Mon 18 May, 2015 01:41 am
God, ionus, I know this is too much toexpect of you, but please stop cutting-and-pasting patent bad science.
Ionus
 
  0  
Reply Mon 18 May, 2015 02:12 am
@MontereyJack,
Quote:
That's crap "science", Ionus, as you would know if you ever read any of the actual research and actual numbers.
I dont think you are emotionally stable enough to give an informed opinion . Do you live by the sea ? Worried at all ? Which research and numbers do you want me to read ? Not shredded ones I hope .

Quote:
Analysis of the changing isotopes of oxygen in the atmosphere show that the change in CO2 is conclusively due to fossilk fuels, and that is 1/3 again as much as CO2 concentration from pre-industrial levels. That's abournd 33$%
not 6%.
That's bullshit and I think you know it . But lets suppose it is true...where's the heat ? If it is even more , than there should be more heat .

Quote:
4. The 100 year lifetime is not something the IPC came up with on its own. That's the established gfigure, from wel before the IPCC came into existence.
So IPCC is not responsible for its errors . Why not ? But the point is valid as to the lifetime of CO2 .

Quote:
what the hell does CO2 heat is nearly saturated mean? There's no indication of anything like that
6. The absorption of the radiation from the surface by the CO2 of the air is nearly saturated. Measuring with a spectrometer what is left from the radiation of a broadband infrared source (say a black body heated at 1000°C) after crossing the equivalent of some tens or hundreds of meters of the air, shows that the main CO2 bands (4.3 µm and 15 µm) have been replaced by the emission spectrum of the CO2 which is radiated at the temperature of the trace-gas. There appears to be no end of science you have not read, no doubt due to you not liking what you read .
0 Replies
 
Ionus
 
  0  
Reply Mon 18 May, 2015 02:15 am
@MontereyJack,
Quote:
Totally bogus the lot of them.
2. is probably right


Quote:
Parados is competent to continue demolishing them.
Laughing REALLY ?? I thought he must be a Performing Arts Major .
0 Replies
 
Ionus
 
  0  
Reply Mon 18 May, 2015 02:20 am
@MontereyJack,
Quote:
16 is egregiously bad too. Greenhouse gases absorb the infrared radiation re-radiated after absorption by the earth. Some is re-emitted toward space. Some is re-radiated back earthward, which warms the troposphere and ultimately the earth and the oceans. No violation of trhe second law of thermodynamics.
Heat transfer is from hot to cold . If the air is cooler than the Earth, the heat will go from the Earth to the air . The air's ability to absorb heat may be impaired, but the point is correct . The air will NOT warm the Earth . GWThuggees are in violation of the Second Law of Thermodynamics .
Ionus
 
  0  
Reply Mon 18 May, 2015 02:22 am
@MontereyJack,
Quote:
God, ionus, I know this is too much toexpect of you, but please stop cutting-and-pasting patent bad science.
Please stop re-iterating your opinion without facts . I know you are a very emotional Nelly, but try hard would you ? I expect better arguments than what you have come up with .
0 Replies
 
Ionus
 
  0  
Reply Mon 18 May, 2015 02:55 am
Read this for a non-scientific laugh...http://climate.nasa.gov/scientific-consensus/
Quote:
Multiple studies published in peer-reviewed scientific journals1 show that 97 percent or more of actively publishing climate scientists agree: Climate-warming trends over the past century are very likely due to human activities. In addition, most of the leading scientific organizations worldwide have issued public statements endorsing this position.
They then list the Medical Association, Chemists and other organisations that are simply aligning with the fashion . Organisations that havent a clue . 97% of ACTIVELY PUBLISHING climate scientists ? If you disagree you wont get published . Dont do a real survey, NASA, there might be some money in this somewhere if you go with the GWThuggees .
0 Replies
 
Ionus
 
  0  
Reply Mon 18 May, 2015 03:06 am
Other scientists hanging it on you because you dont have research money ?
Dont get published with the same old inconvenient truths about GW ?

Apply now for a government grant to prove GW is true and you are guaranteed to be published !

(Renewal of money subject to outcome - disproving GW will result in a withdrawal of funds and may result in a failure to be published due to a lack of accuracy with current politics)
(Offer not valid where fraud is prohibited by law)
0 Replies
 
Ionus
 
  0  
Reply Mon 18 May, 2015 03:21 am
Quote:
There is no basis for the claim that 97% of scientists believe that man-made climate change is a dangerous problem.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052702303480304579578462813553136

Quote:
Of the various petitions on global warming circulated for signatures by scientists, the one by the Petition Project, a group of physicists and physical chemists based in La Jolla, Calif., has by far the most signatures—more than 31,000 (more than 9,000 with a Ph.D.). It was most recently published in 2009, and most signers were added or reaffirmed since 2007. The petition states that "there is no convincing scientific evidence that human release of . . . carbon dioxide, methane, or other greenhouse gases is causing or will, in the foreseeable future, cause catastrophic heating of the Earth's atmosphere and disruption of the Earth's climate."
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Mon 18 May, 2015 03:40 am
@Ionus,
Still wondering, how many scientists, who are working in the field of meteorology/climate research in are there in the world - 31,000 (more than 9,000 with a Ph.D.) seems to be quite a lot of those.
Ionus
 
  0  
Reply Mon 18 May, 2015 05:23 am
@Walter Hinteler,
Sorry Walt, I havent been able to find a summary and I am sure you understand I dont want to add them all up . I did find that there are 200 proponents of GW who are very actively publishing and are responsible for most published articles .
Olivier5
 
  1  
Reply Mon 18 May, 2015 06:15 am
@Ionus,
Spreading more dinsinformation, Ioio? How much do you get paid for it?
0 Replies
 
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Mon 18 May, 2015 06:22 am
@Ionus,
... 31,000 (more than 9,000 with a Ph.D.) ....
Ionus
 
  1  
Reply Mon 18 May, 2015 08:30 am
@Walter Hinteler,
Yes .
0 Replies
 
parados
 
  1  
Reply Mon 18 May, 2015 09:52 am
@Ionus,
What? The poles are going to melt? Antartica will be ice free at some point in the future?

You claimed that was a scare tactic to say Antarctica would ever melt. Now you are saying that it WILL melt.
parados
 
  3  
Reply Mon 18 May, 2015 09:59 am
@Ionus,
Quote:
The air will NOT warm the Earth . GWThuggees are in violation of the Second Law of Thermodynamics .

Obviously you have never spent time outside if you think this is true. Why do you think snow melts in the spring? Is it because the ground is warmer than the air? Why do you think people cool off in the summer by swimming? Is it because the lake is warmer than the air?

Why do we all think Ionus is an idiot? Because he makes statements that he claims are "science" when it is clear to a 6 year old that he doesn't know much about the real world.

 

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