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Global Warming...New Report...and it ain't happy news

 
 
hawkeye10
 
  1  
Reply Thu 7 May, 2015 03:23 pm
Just one small component of the 630 billion euro figure

Quote:
Energy consumers will pay €100 billion over the next 20 years to subsidize domestic PV installed before the end of 2011.

http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/Economic-Aspects/Energy-Subsidies-and-External-Costs/
0 Replies
 
parados
 
  1  
Reply Thu 7 May, 2015 03:34 pm
@hawkeye10,
The cost to shift to renewables is not the same as the cost to shut down 22 nuclear reactors. The cost involves building a lot things that have nothing to do with nuclear reactors including new plants that don't use renewables.

georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Thu 7 May, 2015 03:54 pm
@Walter Hinteler,
Walter Hinteler wrote:
.
Well, it's the Bavarian government opposing those two power lines in our second chamber, most of those are Bavarians, some Upper and Lower Franconians, too, plus one Swabian.


I have a good friend from Bavaria - he recently retired as the chairman of the Physics Department at the Frei University (SP?) in Berlin. He keeps me supplied with that wonderful Regensberg mustard. He also assures me that Bavarians are really Celts, however, that usually occurs after a few beers.
0 Replies
 
hawkeye10
 
  1  
Reply Thu 7 May, 2015 03:58 pm
@parados,
parados wrote:

The cost to shift to renewables is not the same as the cost to shut down 22 nuclear reactors. The cost involves building a lot things that have nothing to do with nuclear reactors including new plants that don't use renewables.


But the cost to take down nuke plants early needs to be calculated in, both because the sunk costs will not be retrieved by selling electricity as planned and because the utilities only have a fraction of the cost in reserve so someone else is going to have to pay it (read taxpayers). The german utilities that own the old plants are circling the toilet bowl financially, they are never going to be able to cough it up.

So how bout it Walter, is green energy costing you the price of a scoop of ice cream per month as Jürgen Trittin promised? And dont forget the extra taxes you need to pay because the government has now capped the green energy costs that can be transferred by monthly electricity bill charges.....somebody is going to have to pay.
parados
 
  1  
Reply Thu 7 May, 2015 04:00 pm
@hawkeye10,
Of course there is a cost to shut down the reactors but you can't count every other cost to the electric infrastructure as you are doing.
hawkeye10
 
  1  
Reply Thu 7 May, 2015 04:10 pm
@parados,
parados wrote:

Of course there is a cost to shut down the reactors but you can't count every other cost to the electric infrastructure as you are doing.


The cost in transmission lines because the power is not generated near the user is a cost of green power. The cost to keep power plants staffed and ready to go on 30 seconds notice to keep the grid up when solar and wind dont come in as planned needs to be counted. The cost to pay businesses when they are ordered to shut down because electricity is either not available or would cost too much to generate has to be counted . The cost to build gas and coal plants to take over for nuclear has to be counted. But mostly it is the cost to build solar and wind generation, which was not paid up front, it has been promised at the back end.

Somebody is going to have to pay, and it will not be me, because if electricity is too expensive in Germany the stuff I import for personal use will come from someplace else.
Baldimo
 
  1  
Reply Thu 7 May, 2015 04:19 pm
@parados,
Come on Hawk. You can't expect these people to actually count the cost of doing business into the cost of doing business. You are being unreasonable.
hawkeye10
 
  1  
Reply Thu 7 May, 2015 04:30 pm
@Baldimo,
Baldimo wrote:

Come on Hawk. You can't expect these people to actually count the cost of doing business into the cost of doing business. You are being unreasonable.

I remember reading an argument around 1993 that ever increasing US goverment debt does not matter, because we are never going to pay it, that if anyone does it will be our kids and grandkids. The german green energy plan seems to be based upon the same economic theory.
hawkeye10
 
  2  
Reply Thu 7 May, 2015 04:50 pm
@hawkeye10,
Now the government is letting favored businesses pay none of the green energy system costs, and is capping how much of the green energy plan costs residential customers pay. Who will pay the rest? How much is the rest? The German government is not talking bout that.
0 Replies
 
FBM
 
  2  
Reply Thu 7 May, 2015 06:26 pm
http://blogs.worldwatch.org/revolt/studies-back-feasibility-of-a-100-percent-renewable-energy-supply/

Quote:
Studies Back Feasibility of a 100-Percent Renewable Energy Supply

Two recent studies lay out compelling scenarios under which virtually all of the world’s energy needs could be met with renewable energy sources by 2050. But despite their similar end goals, the energy futures foreseen in these two reports—published by the World Wildlife Fund (WWF) and a team of university scientists, respectively—are vastly different.

A wind turbine in South Africa. Will there be more of them in 2050?
WWF’s The Energy Report, published last week in collaboration with Ecofys, a Dutch think tank specializing in renewable energy, concludes that it is technologically and economically feasible for 95 percent of all energy to come from renewable sources by 2050. The authors argue that such a transformation would even be cheaper than relying on conventional, carbon-intense energy sources.

Meanwhile, Mark Z. Jacobson from Stanford University and Mark A. Delucchi from the University of California at Davis have written an ambitious two-part paper titled “Providing all global energy with wind, water, and solar power,” soon be published in Energy Policy. The study concludes that the electrification of all energy sectors can lead to a fully renewable energy supply by as early as 2030, or—if political and social obstacles are taken into account—by 2050.

These are only the latest in a long list of studies claiming that our future energy demand can be satisfied almost exclusively using renewable energy sources, such as wind, solar, or hydropower. Other examples include papers by the European Climate Foundation (ECF) and the European Renewable Energy Council (EREC) that present pathways toward a 100-percent renewable energy supply for Europe by 2050. And in January 2011, the Berlin-based German Advisory Council on the Environment (SRU) presented the German Federal Environment Minister with a detailed report on how to achieve a fully renewable electricity supply in Europe’s largest economy within four decades. A similar report was published by the German Federal Environment Agency (UBA) in July 2010.
...


Emphasis mine.
hawkeye10
 
  1  
Reply Thu 7 May, 2015 06:42 pm
@FBM,
Quote:
Studies Back Feasibility of a 100-Percent Renewable Energy Supply

Feasibility by definition factors in costs. Talk to me about that.

Quote:
The WWF report, for instance, estimates that despite the huge investment needed to promote renewable energy, renewables will provide a positive cash flow after 2035,


Under what are no doubt ideal conditions and rosy assumption computer modeling the investment will begin to pay off in 2o years??!! We are not normally willing to wait more than 20 minutes. And how many trillions of dollars does it take to get through the first 20 years, and what are we diverting money from to do it??
hawkeye10
 
  1  
Reply Thu 7 May, 2015 07:11 pm
@hawkeye10,
Quote:
German politicians, meanwhile, can only look across the Atlantic and shake their heads. Washington has no formal or comprehensive energy or climate policy, but the United States’ natural gas bonanza has led to cheaper power prices and falling greenhouse-gas emissions in recent years. Berlin has reams of pro-renewable energy policies, but prices and emissions are climbing. Germany’s energy dilemma is particularly important now, because the European Union is trying to sort out its own climate and energy policies through 2030. The choice, essentially, is whether the Europe wants to be more like Germany, or less.

Dieter Helm, an energy economist at Oxford University who has advised the European Commission, said German leaders assumed that oil and gas prices were going to continue to increase, which meant that developing cheap supplies of renewable energy would give their companies a competitive advantage over the United States. That assumption has turned out to be almost entirely wrong. Flat oil prices, America’s shale gas revolution, and the stubbornly high cost of renewable energy have instead left German firms reliant on more expensive forms of energy than their U.S.-based competitors.


Excellent points

http://foreignpolicy.com/2014/03/25/germanys-green-elephant/
0 Replies
 
parados
 
  1  
Reply Thu 7 May, 2015 07:34 pm
@hawkeye10,
So you are arguing that every cost is a cost to shut down 22 nuclear plants. That is ridiculous since Germany would need transmission lines even if they kept the 22 plants on line. You are simply counting everything as a cost to shut down the plants.
0 Replies
 
FBM
 
  1  
Reply Thu 7 May, 2015 07:35 pm
A lot of those costs can also be counted as job creation. Creating whole new industries.
parados
 
  1  
Reply Thu 7 May, 2015 07:39 pm
@FBM,
There would be a cost involved in continuing to operate those plants that it seems hawkeye is forgetting he should include in the savings column.
FBM
 
  1  
Reply Thu 7 May, 2015 07:45 pm
@parados,
Good point. They would be self-sufficient, rather than draining off the grid.

Here in S. Korea, they're investing pretty heavily in renewables. I can guarantee you that if it weren't economically feasible, Korea wouldn't spend a dime on it.
hawkeye10
 
  0  
Reply Thu 7 May, 2015 07:54 pm
@FBM,
FBM wrote:

Good point. They would be self-sufficient, rather than draining off the grid.

Here in S. Korea, they're investing pretty heavily in renewables. I can guarantee you that if it weren't economically feasible, Korea wouldn't spend a dime on it.

Korea always has one eye on the day that China decides to run a naval blockade.
FBM
 
  2  
Reply Thu 7 May, 2015 07:56 pm
@hawkeye10,
Not sure what that has to do with the feasibility of renewables.
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Mon 11 May, 2015 09:32 am
@FBM,
Quote:
15 years ago, German politicians agreed to wean the country off fossil fuels and nuclear energy. The shift has been expensive and mistakes were made, but it has put Germany on a path to a cleaner, greener economy.

Pondering Germany’s 'Energiewende'
FBM
 
  1  
Reply Mon 11 May, 2015 06:34 pm
@Walter Hinteler,
I should have said "long-term feasibility." Of course the transition will require considerable investments. Thinking decades ahead is the way to go here, I think.
0 Replies
 
 

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