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Global Warming...New Report...and it ain't happy news

 
 
blatham
 
  1  
Reply Sun 8 Jan, 2006 11:10 pm
Check the data elsewhere. But no removing the dunce cap until 4.
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Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Sun 8 Jan, 2006 11:13 pm
I posted data just today compiled by an organization who has no interest in either enhancing the Bush administration or in destroying it. I suggest you look at that.
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blatham
 
  1  
Reply Sun 8 Jan, 2006 11:32 pm
Foxfyre wrote:
I posted data just today compiled by an organization who has no interest in either enhancing the Bush administration or in destroying it. I suggest you look at that.


Oh, you mean OISM?

Quote:
Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine
From SourceWatch
The Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine (OISM) describes itself as "a small research institute" that studies "biochemistry, diagnostic medicine, nutrition, preventive medicine and the molecular biology of aging." It is headed by Arthur B. Robinson, an eccentric scientist who has a long history of controversial entanglements with figures on the fringe of accepted research. OISM also markets a home-schooling kit for "parents concerned about socialism in the public schools" and publishes books on how to survive nuclear war.

The OISM is located on a farm about 7 miles from the town of Cave Junction, Oregon (population 1,126). Located slightly east of Siskiyou National Forest, Cave Junction is one of several small towns nestled in the Illinois Valley, whose total population is 15,000. Best known as a gateway to the Oregon Caves National Monument, it is described by its chamber of commerce as "the commercial, service, and cultural center for a rural community of small farms, woodlots, crafts people, and families just living apart from the crowds. ... It's a place where going into the market can take time because people talk in the aisles and at the checkstands. Life is slower, so you have to be patient. You'll be part of that slowness because it is enjoyable to be neighborly." The main visitors are tourists who come to hike, backpack and fish in the area's many rivers and streams. Cave Junction is the sort of out-of-the-way location you might seek out if you were hoping to survive a nuclear war, but it is not known as a center for scientific and medical research. The OISM would be equally obscure itself, except for the role it played in 1998 in circulating a deceptive "scientists' petition" on global warming in collaboration with Frederick Seitz, a retired former president of the National Academy of Sciences....

"The mailing is clearly designed to be deceptive by giving people the impression that the article, which is full of half-truths, is a reprint and has passed peer review," complained Raymond Pierrehumbert, a meteorlogist at the University of Chicago. NAS foreign secretary F. Sherwood Rowland, an atmospheric chemist, said researchers "are wondering if someone is trying to hoodwink them." NAS council member Ralph J. Cicerone, dean of the School of Physical Sciences at the University of California at Irvine, was particularly offended that Seitz described himself in the cover letter as a "past president" of the NAS. Although Seitz had indeed held that title in the 1960s, Cicerone hoped that scientists who received the petition mailing would not be misled into believing that he "still has a role in governing the organization."

Lots more fun reading here
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Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Sun 8 Jan, 2006 11:53 pm
For some additional reading, on this site are some additional infos, including how the number of "19,000 scientists" arose.

Quote:
When questioned in 1998, OISM's Arthur Robinson admitted that only 2,100 signers of the Oregon Petition had identified themselves as physicists, geophysicists, climatologists, or meteorologists, "and of those the greates=t number are physicists."30 The names of the signers are available on the OISM's website, but without listing any institutional affiliations or even city of residence, making it very difficult to determine their credentials or even whether they exist at all. When the Oregon Petition first circulated, in fact, environmental activists successfully added the names o=f several fictional characters and celebrities to the list, including John Grisham, Michael J. Fox, Drs. Frank Bums, B. J. Honeycutt, and Benjamin Pierce (from the TV show M*A*S*H), an individual by the name of "Dr. Red Wine," and Geraldine Halliwell, formerly known as pop singer Ginger Spice o=f the Spice Girls. Ginger's field of scientific specialization was listed as "biology.""
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Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Sun 8 Jan, 2006 11:58 pm
That's really fun - thanks, Foxfre for your suggestion!
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Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Mon 9 Jan, 2006 12:48 am
A spot check from the large numer signers whose last names begin with A however shows that these people do exist and none of them are uneducated dummies. Even 2100 is a substantial number wouldn't you say?

Can you find any credible organization that is not intent on embarassing the Bush administration who considers the Petition Project to be bogus?
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McTag
 
  1  
Reply Mon 9 Jan, 2006 01:23 am
I'm wondering what sort of organisation would thus augment its membership list.
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Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Mon 9 Jan, 2006 01:32 am
Foxfyre wrote:
A spot check from the large numer signers whose last names begin with A however shows that these people do exist and none of them are uneducated dummies.


How did you do such? Even with a couple of telephone directories and staff lists of (nearly all) universities I was unable to do so.
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blatham
 
  1  
Reply Mon 9 Jan, 2006 06:30 am
Fox gets a full week in the dunce corner for this one. Walter gets a gold star for research.

Quote:
In reality, neither Robinson's paper nor OISM's petition drive had anything
to do with the National Academy of Sciences, which first heard about the
petition when its members began calling to ask if the NAS had taken a stand against the Kyoto treaty. The paper's author, Arthur Robinson, was not even a climate scientist. He was a biochemist with no published research in the field of climatology, and his paper had never been subjected to peer review by anyone with training in the field. In fact, the paper had never been accepted for publication anywhere, let alone in the NAS Proceedings. It was self-published by Robinson, who did the typesetting himself on his own computer under the auspices of the Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine of which Robinson himself was the founder...

The OISM also sells a book titled Nuclear War Survival Skills (foreword by H-bomb inventor Edward Teller), which argues that "the dangers from nuclear weapons have been distorted and exaggerated" into "demoralizing myths ."...


None of the coauthors of "Environmental Effects of Atmospheric Carbon
Dioxide" had any more standing than Robinson himself as a climate change researcher. They included Robinson's 22-year-old son, Zachary (home-schooled by his dad), along with astrophysicists Sallie Baliunas and Willie Soon. Both Baliunas and Soon worked with Frederick Seitz at the George C. Marshall Institute, a Washington, D.C., think tank where Seitz served as executive director. Funded by a number of rightwing foundations, including Scaife and Bradley, the George C. Marshall Institute does not conduct any original research....
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blatham
 
  1  
Reply Mon 9 Jan, 2006 06:49 am
foxfyre wrote:
Quote:
Can you find any credible organization that is not intent on embarassing the Bush administration who considers the Petition Project to be bogus?


Back down on this one. You are eviscerating any credibility you have left as a careful or thoughtful contributor. You use the term "junk science" more often than anyone and this case epitomizes precisely what that term means.

The claim that global warming isn't happening and is really just a hoax is no longer credited by anyone other than those who gobble down that public relations campaign line. The authoritative and honest consensus now points overwhelmingly in the other direction. This part of the argument is over. The only valuable aspect of following such claims now is to discover the who and the why behind such dishonesty.

The battle, if you want to keep fighting it, and you will, is now the one thomas and george engage...which alternative address to global warming will have the consequence of minimizing furture suffering.
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cjhsa
 
  1  
Reply Mon 9 Jan, 2006 06:56 am
blatham wrote:
foxfyre wrote:
Quote:
Can you find any credible organization that is not intent on embarassing the Bush administration who considers the Petition Project to be bogus?


Back down on this one. You are eviscerating any credibility you have left as a careful or thoughtful contributor. You use the term "junk science" more often than anyone and this case epitomizes precisely what that term means.
.


Remember Fox, repeat "It's all Bush's fault" and smile pretty or the PC crowd here at A2K will say you're not credible.

Creeps.
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Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Mon 9 Jan, 2006 07:05 am
To Blatham:
Who has said that global warming isn't happening? Not me. I have said that I don't know a) whether the current warming trend is unusual in the grand scheme of global history that spans billions of years and b) whether humans are having any significant effect on it.

Can you provide your credentials for your certainty that you do know the answer to these things?

I did not say who performed the research for the models presented in the data posted. But these concur with other data that I have seen.

Do you know who performed the research for the models you presume to be superior and what affiiliations these persons might have had?

You have maintained all along that you seem to possess some superior knowledge that the rest of us are apparently not privy to. You don't seem to be able to support it with anything but leftwing propaganda sources, however, even as you insult me for the sources that I use.

I have maintained all along that all I want is credible, verifiable evidence that altering my lifestyle is going to help save the world. I have not seen such evidence yet and none of your insulting expounding is likely to be persuasive.
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Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Mon 9 Jan, 2006 07:09 am
Walter Hinteler wrote:
Foxfyre wrote:
A spot check from the large numer signers whose last names begin with A however shows that these people do exist and none of them are uneducated dummies.


How did you do such? Even with a couple of telephone directories and staff lists of (nearly all) universities I was unable to do so.


I just plugged some names into my search engine and came up with the following. These would seem to support your research that many if not most are not climatologists, but your research came up with the fact that 2200 of them were. I just pulled names with PHDs after them. They all apparently have those PhDs. One that didn't have a PhD is an engineer who appears to have some stature. I spot checked five and came up with five hits. All this means is that the people aren't bogus. How the petition itself has been used may or may not be, but the data they used to support it appears to have scientific underpinning.

Earl Aagaard PhD
http://www.theevidence.org/episodes/episode11-guest4-articles.php

Roger Aamodt PhD
http://enews.clsi.org/clsi/issues/2005-05-05/8.html

Hamad Abbas PhD
http://www.sbu.ac.ir/english/Site.aspx?ParTree=BZ!Z&LnkIdn=2743

M Robert Aaron
http://www.ieee.org/organizations/history_center/legacies/aaron.html

GeraldAdamsPhD
http://www.family.uoguelph.ca/page.cfm?id=14
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blatham
 
  1  
Reply Mon 9 Jan, 2006 07:18 am
Quote:
You don't seem to be able to support it with anything but leftwing propaganda sources, however, even as you insult me for the sources that I use.


The President's own science council and EPA scientists, for you, now constitute leftwing propaganda sources. Yeah, that looks worthy of insult.

Drop it fox. This last OISM thing should have been checked out by you. At least, on getting some data on who and what it is, you ought to have apologized for tossing such garbage into the discussion. And now you ought to question the sources of wherever the hell you got it. This is a loser for you and makes you look a silly fool.
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cjhsa
 
  1  
Reply Mon 9 Jan, 2006 07:20 am
Repeat: "It's all Bush's fault".
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blatham
 
  1  
Reply Mon 9 Jan, 2006 07:28 am
cjhsa wrote:
Repeat: "It's all Bush's fault".


Non sequitur. You are not focusing again.
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cjhsa
 
  1  
Reply Mon 9 Jan, 2006 07:34 am
I can't focus on your fuzzy logic.
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Anon-Voter
 
  1  
Reply Mon 9 Jan, 2006 07:38 am
blatham wrote:
cjhsa wrote:
Repeat: "It's all Bush's fault".


Non sequitur. You are not focusing again.


Again ... don't you mean still?? And you're surprised??

Anon
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Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Mon 9 Jan, 2006 08:02 am
Blatham, you pull excerpts from government documents and hold these up as PROOF that even Bush's own scientists say that humankind is destroying the planet with global warming. I try to look at more than just excerpts. You further want to show that the Bush administration is trying to bury any data that supports global warming while more credible (and knowledgable in my opinion) sources say that the Bush administration is not going to favor propaganda science over science that seems to dispute it.

The President's policy has been pretty much what I think it should be. You don't discount any of it but you don't swallow it hook line and sinker either until there is reasonable evidence that the science is sound.

The following looks like a pretty good summary of Bush policy on this issue and also shows how critical of it are those who already have their minds made up.

White House Touts Global Warming Research
By John Heilprin
Associated Press
posted: 09:00 am ET
24 July 2003

WASHINGTON -- The White House on Thursday will issue a revised 10-year global warming research plan that sets five goals, chief among them identifying "natural variability'' in climate change, an effort that environmentalists say diverts the focus away from man-made pollution.

The second goal listed by the Bush administration is to find better ways of measuring climate effects from burning fossil fuels, industrial production of warming gases and changes in land use. The 364-page plan emphasizes the difficulties but also the importance of reaching that goal.

"These changes have several important climate effects, some of which can be quantified only poorly at present,'' say summaries obtained by The Associated Press. Managing the potential human contributions to global warming is described as ``a capstone issue for our generation and those to follow.''

Other goals are to reduce uncertainty in climate forecasting; to better understand how changes in climate affect human, wildlife and plant communities; and to find more exact ways of calculating the risks of global warming.

The administration also will ask Congress for a new $103 million, two-year initiative to speed up "high priority'' research on carbon pollution, aerosols and oceans and determine the best ways to compile and disseminate information about them, Assistant Commerce Secretary James Mahoney told the AP. He said that effort would be included in President Bush's budget proposals for 2005 and 2006 and would draw some of its funds from the existing $1.75 billion Climate Change Science Program.

The new plan and funding initiative are being presented by Commerce Secretary Don Evans and Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham.

An earlier version was roundly criticized by a panel of top climate experts at the National Academy of Sciences, who said it didn't set hard priorities and lacked a clear, guiding vision and a specific timetable of goals.

"We've tried to take all of the academy's recommendations into account,'' Mahoney said. "The greatest focus is on what we can deliver in the shortest period.''

He said more than 250 people worked on the plan, which envisions no fewer than 21 separate reports on varying aspects of climate change being produced over the next four years.

Carbon dioxide from burning oil and coal is blamed by many scientists for contributing to a "greenhouse'' or warming effect on global climates.

The Bush administration is the first to comply with Congress' 1990 mandate that a 10-year climate change research plan be created. Lawmakers also said such a plan should be updated every three years.

The new plan revises a draft released late last year which focused on making better economic projections of possible climate policy changes and tighter coordination of more than a dozen federal agencies' efforts.

Lester Brown, founder of the Earth Policy Institute, and Philip Clapp, president of National Environmental Trust, criticized the administration for focusing on natural causes of global warming and reopening scientific issues already adequately addressed by the academy and the United Nations' scientific panel.

"It seems to me that it's an effort to postpone doing anything meaningful on the climate issue," said Brown, who called for more research on climate warming effects on crop production and water shortages.

Clapp predicted that "most climate scientists around the world will see this as fiddling while Rome burns. ... This would have been a great research program if it had been announced by the first President Bush 10 years ago."

Annie Petsonk, an Environmental Defense lawyer who helped craft the first Bush's policy while working in his administration's Justice Department, said there is enough scientific certainty to begin taking action now to reduce warming.

"Where the administration has thought to take any action at all has been to delete climate references from reports and to try to repudiate the science that says global warming is happening now," she said.

Bush and his advisers have adopted the stance that reducing emissions through costly near-term measures is unjustified, and that scientific forecasting of climate change is too imprecise to agree to long-term, international, mandatory cuts in greenhouse gas emissions.

Mahoney said the administration has been careful to distinguish between science and policy.

"We can't move the science faster than it goes,'' he said. ``At any point in time, there can be debates about the policy, but our job is to structure our information to be the most helpful."
http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/global_warming_030724.html
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blatham
 
  1  
Reply Mon 9 Jan, 2006 08:18 am
Quote:
Blatham, you pull excerpts from government documents and hold these up as PROOF that even Bush's own scientists say that humankind is destroying the planet with global warming.

False statement. The claim the council made was global warming is real and human agency at least a contributing cause. Nor have I ever said we are "destroying the planet" (what would that even mean?) but rather that we risk consequences to climate and biology that might do us dirty indeed.

Quote:
You further want to show that the Bush administration is trying to bury any data that supports global warming while more credible (and knowledgable in my opinion) sources say that the Bush administration is not going to favor propaganda science over science that seems to dispute it.
I have just posted information, including a statement from Todd Whitman (and I've posted it before) that demonstrate the administration is editing reports and findings from the scientific community working within and for government which purposefully seek to minimize public understanding of global warming and the science on the matter. As to "propaganda", there is NO COMPARISON between the dollars spent by industry to forward the notion that global warming is false or questionable (I've earlier posted the Lunz memo which advises a political strategy to manufacture doubt about global warming science for as long as possible) and anything that other people in the community are doing and spending. Somehow, environmental activists are considered a 'special interest' and Exxon Mobile with it's billions and its lobbying and its connections/access to government is not. I mean, for fukk sakes.
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