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Global Warming...New Report...and it ain't happy news

 
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Tue 29 Dec, 2009 03:26 pm
@ican711nm,
http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/temperature/nhshgl.gif
http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/temperature/nhshgl.gif
Average Annual Global Temperature 1850-2009
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Tue 29 Dec, 2009 03:40 pm
@cicerone imposter,
cicerone imposter wrote:
I also agree that man should make every attempt to minimize co2; it's better for our health.

CO2 in the atmosphere this century, so far has had no negative effect on human health, but it does have a positive effect on plant growth. Plant growth has a positive affect on human health, because plants emit O2, and the more plant growth the more O2 in the atmosphere. Therefore, increases in CO2 in the atmosphere so far have had positive impacts on human health.

By the way, some of that plant growth has a positive impact on the health of human diets, not to mention it's good eatin'.
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Tue 29 Dec, 2009 03:52 pm
http://epw.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=Minority.Blogs&ContentRecord_id=f80a6386-802a-23ad-40c8-3c63dc2d02cb
As of December 20, 2007, more than 400 prominent scientists from more than two dozen countries have voiced significant objections to major aspects of the alleged UN IPCC "consensus" on man-made global warming.

Quote:

http://epw.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=Minority.SenateReport#report
344
Meteorologist Dr. Fred Ward, who earned his PhD in Meteorology from MIT and is a former meteorologist for Boston TV, ridiculed what he termed "global warming zealots." "Good, worldwide temperature data are available for less than a century, but that hasn't stopped the alarmists from quoting what are called ‘temperature' data extending back to the Romans. Such data are not temperatures, but proxies which are claimed to measure temperature," Ward wrote in the New Hampshire Union Leader on July 16, 2007. "Such proxies include tree rings, ice cores and the like, but they all suffer from one serious limitation. The proxies can be calculated from the weather, but the weather cannot be calculated from the proxies. The brief reason is that many different weather elements work in complex ways to produce the proxy," he added. "Finally, for those of you old enough to read in the 1970s, there was a lot of hysteria back then about the global temperature. The same ‘if we don't act promptly, in 10 years it will be too late' statements were published, on the covers of reputable papers and magazines, by many of the same ‘scientists,' and for many of the same base motives. The only difference between the 1970s and now was that the disaster that was just around the corner was global cooling! How times change, while people don't," he concluded. (LINK)

parados
 
  1  
Reply Tue 29 Dec, 2009 08:53 pm
@ican711nm,
So.. You are claiming Fred Ward thinks warming exists? Or did you forget you just claimed NO ONE on the list denies warming.
0 Replies
 
parados
 
  1  
Reply Tue 29 Dec, 2009 09:07 pm
@ican711nm,
I guess every time you post someone from Inhofe's list, I should post this ican.

http://getenergysmartnow.com/2009/07/17/scientific-inquiry-concludes-inhofe-list-not-credible/

http://www.centerforinquiry.net/uploads/attachments/credibility__brochure.pdf
Quote:
Based on publications in the refereed literature, only approximately
10% of the 687 individuals could be indentified definitively
as climate scientists. Only approximately 15% could be identified
as publishing in fields related to climate science.
Examples include solar physicists studying solar irradiance variation.
For approximately 80% of these individuals, no evidence
could be found that they had published research remotely
related to climate science. Examples include purported
meteorologists - the largest professional field found " who have no
refereed scientific publications and whose job is merely to report
the weather forecast.
Almost 4% have made statements suggesting they largely
accept the scientific community’s consensus view that global
warming is occurring and that greenhouse gases appear to be
a significant cause. (This is a tentative approximation, because
these same individuals may have made other statements elsewhere.
This nonetheless raises the question whether they should have been
included on the Senate Minority Report’s list in the first place.)
0 Replies
 
MontereyJack
 
  1  
Reply Tue 29 Dec, 2009 10:20 pm
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/global-jan-dec-error-bar-pg.gif
0 Replies
 
MontereyJack
 
  1  
Reply Tue 29 Dec, 2009 10:44 pm
oh, good, it worked. You wanted a graph, ican. You got it. Now we know you deniers don't believe in HadCrut anymore. Get with the program, ican. That graph is NASA/NOAA, our team. And you will notice what I keep telling you--2005 is the warmest year on record. Temps have NOT been going down since 2001. That graph actually covers the period through 2007, if you count the yearbars, and you will note the rolling average (the black line) is NOT going down.

HAdCrut, as established a few pages back, consistently lowballs global temperature increase, since it systematically undercounts the influence of temperature change above the Arctic Circle,, but if you look at the graphs you keep cutting and pasting, which DO NOT support your position, and try, for once, to notice what is really going on in them, you might actually begin to understand what is changing in the world.

Notice first there are repeated ONE-YEAR-LONG spikes and dips. If it only lasts a year, it's WEATHER, not CLIMATE. Those spikes and dips represent elNino and laNina events, respectively--warm and cool WEATHER events. 1998 was an EL NINO year, the strongest on record,which is why the year was anomalously warm. Similarly 2008 was a LA NINA year, which is why it was anomalously cool. Both of them passed, and as you will notice from the rightmost bar of your HadCrut graphs, for 2009, the temperature is going right back up again, just as one would expect. You probably don't remember, since you have a consistent habit of forgetting data that flatly contradict your points, that the black line on your graphs which represents global temperature is in fact a ROLLING AVERAGE line, which means that it starts dipping when they add in the single anomalous year, the la Nina year--it is not, in fact a representation of what temperatures were actually doing in the years surrounding 2008, but a way of smoothing out fluctuations in the dat--in this case caused by the transient la Nina. In other words, as the independent statisticians who recently did a blind analysis of all the sur4face and satellite temp data concluded (meaning they were just presented numbers and not told what the numbers actually represented, and then did mathematical tests on those numbers), it is statistically indefensible to say that the data indicate a decline since 2001.

And since you've cut-and-pasted the graphs you misinterpret probably close to a hundred times now, I'm gonna cut and past NOAA again
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/global-jan-dec-error-bar-pg.gif
patiodog
 
  1  
Reply Wed 30 Dec, 2009 06:11 am
@rosborne979,
Quote:
Any discussion of global warming which focuses on whether or not warming is happening, is misplaced because warming is already known and expected. The only question of any relevance is whether the human contribution to the warming will have any impact on the natural cycle which is already firmly established, and what that impact will be. And given that nobody in the political or scientific arena is even asking the right questions at the moment, it's unlikely that we're going to get any meaningful answers any time soon.

I think mankind should minimize it's polluting activities just because it's a better way to live in your environment. Whether our descendants live on a hot planet or a cold one it's better not to have to walk around in (or breathe) your own waste products. But I don't think we should expect that anything we do is going to have much effect on planetary climate any time soon. The forces driving the underlying climate are obviously titanic or the spikes on the ice core graph wouldn't be so sharp and regular.


Even if we're not going to alter the greater fluctuations in planetary climate (and I agree we're not, unless we start pushing the continental plates around), I think it is very conceivable that our contribution to atmospheric CO2 can have profound impact on life on earth. Never mind temperature -- higher CO2 gets absorbed into the oceans, where it becomes carbonic acid and acidifies the water. The lower pH can slow growth of organisms that build calcium carbonate shells -- organisms that frequently are near the bottom of the oceanic food chain.

Just like temps, pH has fluctuated over the aeons, but to expect major changes in a geographically minute period of time to have minimal effects I would contend is foolish, especially in light of the deleterious effects that other forms of pollution are already having on marine life.

Ultimately, sure, the earth is going to do what the earth is going to do, but does that mean that global effects we exert over a few centuries are inconsequential? It depends on your perspective, I suppose -- but in the much larger perspective, we're going to die out anyway, the sun's going to die out, the planet will be destroyed... At some point, we have to determine that something matters or nothing matters.
rosborne979
 
  1  
Reply Wed 30 Dec, 2009 06:33 am
@patiodog,
Good points. I don't know the answer to those questions.

I assume that anything we do which impacts the environment at all could be considered "bad" (at least to something). But how much impact should we allow ourselves as "members" of this planet. Do we have the right to create modern cultures despite the impact they will inevitably have on the environment?
patiodog
 
  1  
Reply Wed 30 Dec, 2009 06:51 am
@rosborne979,
Good question. As far as I'm concerned, I think the best thing we can do in terms of human quality of life and environmental degradation is to greatly restrict our reproduction as a species, but I can't offer any just way to accomplish it short of my own childlessness.
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Wed 30 Dec, 2009 03:43 pm
Quote:
Today, responding to a court-ordered deadline, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service finalized long-overdue reports documenting the status of polar bears and Pacific walrus in Alaska. The reports confirm that polar bear populations in Alaska are declining and that Pacific walrus are under threat. Both species are being hurt by the loss of their sea-ice habitat due to global warming, oil and gas development, and unsustainable harvest.

Source

A copy of the stock assessments released today can be found at http://alaska.fws.gov/fisheries/mmm/stock/stock.htm.
Finn dAbuzz
 
  1  
Reply Wed 30 Dec, 2009 06:20 pm
@rosborne979,
Your discussion with patiodog is the first time, in a while, that I've found this thread interesting. We probably have touched on or explored this aspect of the issue before, but with over 750 pages of postings, I'm not about to determine if that is actually so. In any case, I think it is important to note that humanity is not unnatural which is to say that while humans may have a greater ability, than most species, to impact ecological balance, we are, at the same time, part of and subject to that balance. Whether or not humanity has a "right" to spread and advance technologically will depend upon what concept or system of law you wish to apply in connection with the question. On a very fundamental level, one species has as much right to exist, thrive, and spread as any other. The history of life on earth contains a multitude of examples where the increase of one species has led to the decline of others. Do non-human species have a right, unavailable to humans, to impact ecological balance? Humanity is not immune to the consequences of its actions of course, and so any right of increase it has may eventually involve the right to cause its own extinction. There is widespread agreement, and it certainly seems intuitively so, that the so-called Sixth Wave of Extinction or the Holocene extinction is not a benign or even neutral event, and yet I have to wonder if it is anything more than sentimental conjecture to assume that if 50% of all species alive today are extinct 100 years from now, there will be a significant negative impact on the overall quality of human life.

Please don't misunderstand me, I believe that something significant, although intangible, is lost when a species is rendered extinct, but at the same time I appreciate that mankind has not been and is not the sole cause of extinction, and that not all extinctions are equal in the perception of most people.

While a vast number of people will mourn the death of the last polar bear or elephant, how many will grieve over the extinction of a species of tiny fish limited in its habitat to an area the relative size of a postage stamp, or of a species of insect that has not yet even been identified, or of the AIDs virus?

Furthermore, where are the vast majority of imperiled species?

In developing nations.

Even if the global warming alarmists are correct, we could reduce our CO2 emissions to zero, and it, alone, will not save the polar bears.

Humans who live in the West not only bear virtually no responsibility for the impending extinctions of gorillas, tigers, whales, snow leopards etc, they, as a whole, can take some pride in the efforts they have made and financed to forestall the extinction of endangered species around the globe.

Nations like China, India and Brazil that are on the verge of obtaining "Developed" status, are not about to allow concerns about extinction set them back.

Nations of lesser economic status are not about to allow concerns about extinction starve their populations and generate political unrest.

So what should the Enlightened West do? Beggar itself paying a ransom on endangered species?

It won't happen whether or not we believe it should. (I don't BTW)

Nature will take care of things or mankind will finally divorce itself from nature and do so as well. The former solution will probably mean either an extinct or greatly diminished human species, and the latter will probably mean, effectively, evolutionary stagnation.

The Jinni is out of the bottle and will work its way on the world unless it becomes extinct, a prospect that is highly unlikely since rats and cockroaches have nothing on humans.
rosborne979
 
  1  
Reply Thu 31 Dec, 2009 09:29 am
@Finn dAbuzz,
Finn dAbuzz wrote:

Your discussion with patiodog is the first time, in a while, that I've found this thread interesting. We probably have touched on or explored this aspect of the issue before, but with over 750 pages of postings, I'm not about to determine if that is actually so. In any case, I think it is important to note that humanity is not unnatural which is to say that while humans may have a greater ability, than most species, to impact ecological balance, we are, at the same time, part of and subject to that balance. Whether or not humanity has a "right" to spread and advance technologically will depend upon what concept or system of law you wish to apply in connection with the question.

I agree, humans are a natural part of this world with as much right to go blundering through the environment as any other species which has come (and gone) before us. The only thing that makes us different is that we get to worry about what we are doing.

I'm not one to think that humanity needs to live in caves and abstain from the use of fire to justify our inclusion into the "natural" world. But I'm also not one to think that we should willfully ignore the effects of our actions (pollution).

There must be some happy medium in which modern humans allow themselves to express their natural abilities (creating technological civilizations) while minimizing their disruptive impact on the environment. Those hale and hearty individuals who can live by tooth and claw and bow and arrow will draw the line in one place, while the techno-societal people living in caves of drywall and plaster and hunting for food in the grocery store will draw the line in another place.
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Thu 31 Dec, 2009 09:36 am
@rosborne979,
You bring up the most important point about humanity and pollution. One need only look at China, and understand how they are destroying their own environment that impacts the health of their citizens. One-third of all their rivers are now polluted, and many villages must have fresh water trucked in for their survival. That's happening today.
rosborne979
 
  1  
Reply Thu 31 Dec, 2009 10:10 am
@cicerone imposter,
cicerone imposter wrote:

You bring up the most important point about humanity and pollution. One need only look at China, and understand how they are destroying their own environment that impacts the health of their citizens. One-third of all their rivers are now polluted, and many villages must have fresh water trucked in for their survival. That's happening today.

Most countries are doing this, and have been for years. China is just doing it on a larger scale and faster than most others right now.

If I remember correctly the US river system was pretty thoroughly poisoned by the industrial revolution as well. Much of that has now been cleaned up, but nothing has been returned to pristine condition (and never will be).

I'm not certain that it's possible for a technological civilization to exist with zero impact on the environment. Our very existence takes up space which displaces previous species. At the very least we'll never eliminate that level of impact. As for "pollution", there might be some level of technology that can be achieved (in a few hundred years) whereby almost everything is recycled back into a natural compost of some type. But we don't have that technology (or infrastructure) at the moment and I'm not entirely sure it can ever be achieved, although we can strive for it.
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Thu 31 Dec, 2009 12:08 pm
@rosborne979,
I agree that the technological revolution will impact the environment, but we also have the ability to minimize that impact.
0 Replies
 
High Seas
 
  1  
Reply Thu 31 Dec, 2009 12:56 pm
@Walter Hinteler,
Interesting, but other sources seem more reliable:
Quote:
that there are more polar bears now than when scientists first started counting: Estimates put the population between 20,000 and 25,000, up from several thousand 50 years ago. In Canada, where two-thirds of the world's bears live, most populations have grown during the past two or three decades. Arctic residents say they are now bumping into bears wherever they turn....."A month ago I was down by my [hunting] camp and I saw five polar bears," says Harry Flaherty, chairman of the Nunavut Wildlife Management Board, who lives in Iqaluit. "They were so fat, they could barely move."

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB126221385046310927.html?mod=WSJ_hpp_MIDDLENexttoWhatsNewsThird
High Seas
 
  1  
Reply Thu 31 Dec, 2009 01:04 pm
@patiodog,
If you can come up with more ideas contact the Packard Foundation in Palo Alto - they have billions to spend on controlling overpopulation worldwide.
0 Replies
 
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Thu 31 Dec, 2009 01:05 pm
@High Seas,
High Seas wrote:

Interesting, but other sources seem more reliable:


To what source exactly are you referring here? That Mr. Flaherty and others argue that polar bears in general are doing just fine -- indeed, their numbers could use some thinning? To the Nunavut Wildlife Management Board? Or that there are more polar bears now than 50 years ago?
High Seas
 
  1  
Reply Thu 31 Dec, 2009 01:10 pm
@Walter Hinteler,
To the Wall Street Journal - sorry if I didn't post a link. Since I have your attention, though, Walter, and since you may not be following speeches of President Sarkozy, in his explanation for why he agreed to several billion annually to 3rd world nations for "combating global warming" he said "Nothing to do with the climate, but...there's only a few miles between Africa and Europe.... we have to pay them to stay home" - this obviously said in French, so not quoted verbatim.
 

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