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Global Warming...New Report...and it ain't happy news

 
 
okie
 
  1  
Reply Sat 16 Feb, 2008 08:30 pm
Diest TKO wrote:


If 20,000yrs ago the Global average temp was only 9 degree lower, then that meant that prior to this century the global average has gone up on average 0.045 degrees per century.

If an increase of 1.3 degrees over the last century is not "alarming" then you've got a screw loose or you simply do not care.

T
K
O

Spectacular math you illustrate, Diest, but where do you get the idea that global temperatures warmed at an average, thus apparently implied constant rate of .045 degrees per century..... and for 20,000 years?
0 Replies
 
hamburger
 
  1  
Reply Sat 16 Feb, 2008 08:48 pm
okie wrote :

Quote:
Spectacular math you illustrate, Diest, but where do you get the idea that global temperatures warmed at an average, thus apparently implied constant rate of .045 degrees per century..... and for 20,000 years?


AVERAGE is not a CONSTANT , it is simply the TOTAL increase divided by the number of years .
in some years there may have been a zero increase , in other years there may have been lager increases ... ...
so the total increase of 9 degrees divided by 20,000 years gives the average of .045 per century (or .00045 per year ) - it does not say anything about any particular century or year .
hbg
0 Replies
 
okie
 
  1  
Reply Sat 16 Feb, 2008 09:22 pm
That was precisely my point, hamburger. Tell Deist that. His comparison was not logical.

Using his thinking, if he would look at icann's graph on the last page, it shows approximately a 0.2 C drop from 1880 to 1910, so he would become very alarmed after he compared that to his 20,000 year average change per each 30 years. He would probably panic.
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Sat 16 Feb, 2008 09:38 pm
FACTS TO DEBATE

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/2007/ann/global-jan-dec-error-bar-pg.gif Trend in Global Average Temperature 1880 to 2007

http://tamino.files.wordpress.com/2007/06/mlo.jpg
Trend in Atmospheric CO2 ppm 1958 to 2007

Maximum yearly average temperature in the medieval time period 800 to 1200 was about 287.16°K, or about 0.6°K below the current maximum of 287.76°K.

Rate of Temperature Increase 1107 to 2007 = 0.6°K/(2007 - 1107) = 0.6°K/1900 = .000316°K per year
0 Replies
 
Diest TKO
 
  1  
Reply Sun 17 Feb, 2008 04:06 am
okie wrote:
Diest TKO wrote:


If 20,000yrs ago the Global average temp was only 9 degree lower, then that meant that prior to this century the global average has gone up on average 0.045 degrees per century.

If an increase of 1.3 degrees over the last century is not "alarming" then you've got a screw loose or you simply do not care.

T
K
O

Spectacular math you illustrate, Diest, but where do you get the idea that global temperatures warmed at an average, thus apparently implied constant rate of .045 degrees per century..... and for 20,000 years?

I'll honor none of your requests until you retract your comment.

T
K
O
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Sun 17 Feb, 2008 11:14 am
From:
http://www.oism.org/pproject/s33p36.htm
A 3000+ year graph of sea temperatures up to 2006.
http://www.oism.org/pproject/Slides/Presentation/Slide1.png
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Sun 17 Feb, 2008 11:41 am
Diest TKO wrote:
okie wrote:
Diest TKO wrote:


If 20,000yrs ago the Global average temp was only 9 degree lower, then that meant that prior to this century the global average has gone up on average 0.045 degrees per century.

If an increase of 1.3 degrees over the last century is not "alarming" then you've got a screw loose or you simply do not care.

T
K
O

Spectacular math you illustrate, Diest, but where do you get the idea that global temperatures warmed at an average, thus apparently implied constant rate of .045 degrees per century..... and for 20,000 years?

I'll honor none of your requests until you retract your comment.

T
K
O

Now that seems like a very creative way of admitting that you do not know the answer to okie's question! Surprised

By the way, the above 3000+ year sea temperature graph was for the Sargasso Sea.
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Sun 17 Feb, 2008 12:18 pm
http://www.oism.org/pproject/Slides/Presentation/Slide2.png
0 Replies
 
hamburger
 
  1  
Reply Sun 17 Feb, 2008 02:07 pm
one of the graphs posted by ican originates with DR. FREDRICK SEITZ at oism.org .
dr. seitz is also the originator of the anti-kyoto statement .

i believe he is the same dr. seitz who was interviewed in april 2006 to talk about GW , R J REYNONLDS TABACCO and THE BIG OIL companies .
it's far too long to post here , so if you'd like to meet dr. seitz , please go to the link .
no matter where you stand on GW , i'm sure you'll enjoy meeting dr. seitz .
hbg

link :
DR. FREDRICK SEITZ - INTERVIEW
0 Replies
 
Diest TKO
 
  1  
Reply Sun 17 Feb, 2008 03:58 pm
ican711nm wrote:
Diest TKO wrote:
okie wrote:
Diest TKO wrote:


If 20,000yrs ago the Global average temp was only 9 degree lower, then that meant that prior to this century the global average has gone up on average 0.045 degrees per century.

If an increase of 1.3 degrees over the last century is not "alarming" then you've got a screw loose or you simply do not care.

T
K
O

Spectacular math you illustrate, Diest, but where do you get the idea that global temperatures warmed at an average, thus apparently implied constant rate of .045 degrees per century..... and for 20,000 years?

I'll honor none of your requests until you retract your comment.

T
K
O

Now that seems like a very creative way of admitting that you do not know the answer to okie's question! Surprised

By the way, the above 3000+ year sea temperature graph was for the Sargasso Sea.

No. You are incorrect. I'd love nothing more than to answer. All okie has to do is retract his/her false statement. highlighted in red above is the worst math assumption I have ever read.

T
K
O
0 Replies
 
Diest TKO
 
  1  
Reply Sun 17 Feb, 2008 04:25 pm
Hamberger - Good read. Thanks for the post!

In summary: This scientists standard is "wait and see." Any scientific theory to predict he considers flawed. More of an advocate for policy than a scientist as the interviewer ilustrates. He would have made a hell of a politician.

T
K
O
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Sun 17 Feb, 2008 08:00 pm
hamburger wrote:
one of the graphs posted by ican originates with DR. FREDRICK SEITZ at oism.org .
dr. seitz is also the originator of the anti-kyoto statement .

i believe he is the same dr. seitz who was interviewed in april 2006 to talk about GW , R J REYNONLDS TABACCO and THE BIG OIL companies .
it's far too long to post here , so if you'd like to meet dr. seitz , please go to the link .
no matter where you stand on GW , i'm sure you'll enjoy meeting dr. seitz .
hbg

link :
DR. FREDRICK SEITZ - INTERVIEW

I read the interview and enjoyed it. However, I thought most of the questions and answers irrelevant to the fundamental popular theory: Human caused emission of CO2 is the primary cause of global warming and other climate changes. The absence of mathematical correlation between so-called causes and so-called effects is in fact the most relevant issue.

Also, please note this statement near the beginning and to the left of the Q&A: "This is an edited transcript of an interview conducted April 3, 2006."

By the way, I have been looking for graphs published by IPCC that contradict the graphs I have posted. I haven't yet found any. But I have a lot more looking to do.
0 Replies
 
hamburger
 
  1  
Reply Sun 17 Feb, 2008 08:23 pm
ican wrote:

Quote:
Also, please note this statement near the beginning and to the left of the Q&A: "This is an edited transcript of an interview conducted April 3, 2006."


is there anything wrong with an "edited transcript" ?
if PBS had "falsified" the interview , i am reasonably sure the good doctor would have sued the pants of PBS .

dr. seitz sees nothing wrong with accepting money from tabacco companies and big oil , yet he wants to be taken seriously when talking about climate change ?

he no doubt was a good scientist in his days . he reminds of of old and worn out politicians who find it difficult to step aside and let younger , well experienced people step forward - they just can't give up the limelight - nothing new or unusual about that - we unfortunately see it all the time .
hbg
0 Replies
 
Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Sun 17 Feb, 2008 08:32 pm
I do get a little weary of the incessant efforts by AGW religionists and their far leftwing radical disciples to smear the names of people like Frederick Seitz. A person on the payroll of big tobacco or big oil or the coal companies, etc. of course can be suspect of being biased on the side of their employers. But the fact that somebody was commissioned to do a study for ANYBODY seems sufficient to discredit him and yank his credentials by those who have their own agenda to push.

Do you have evidence showing that Dr. Seitz provided the tobacco companies with ammunition used to deceive the public? Do you have evidence that Dr. Seitz provided big oil with studies that omitted any pertinent factors that environmentalists would have wanted included? Do you have evidence that they liked or even used what he produced for them?

If not, then how in the world is Dr. Seitz's petition project and the data undergirding it disqualified, especially when he was careful not to accept money from the 'evil ones' to fund it?
0 Replies
 
Diest TKO
 
  1  
Reply Sun 17 Feb, 2008 09:25 pm
The point is that he doesn't need to be accused of anything. It's simply a conflict of interest, and speaks to the credibility of his findings. As he stated with the tobacco research...

Quote:
Did this institution do any direct studies linking tobacco and cancer?

I took it for granted. People are educated enough that they knew it was a hazard.


This kind of science reeks of political interest.

I was also tickled about how he insisted that the idea of addressing AGW would be an economic disaster. That's what I call an "ALARMIST."

LOL

T
K
O
0 Replies
 
Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Sun 17 Feb, 2008 10:07 pm
Nonsense. In my most recent previous profession I utilized lawyers all the time, asked them to write opinions for me, asked them to intercede in court for me, all the while knowing that they worked counter to my particular company/industry for other clients. They were in no way in conflict of interest and would only have been in conflict of interest had they represented a client involved in a direct conflict or transaction with me.

Likewise I have been hired by companies to perform work and then found myself engaged in adversarial situations with those same companies.

Is the plumber hired to fix the toilet at the local Exxon region office to be forever blacklisted by environmentalists as a supporter of big oil? Shall the doctor refuse to treat the wounded bank robber--does he signal that he favors bank robbery if he does? If I should write an essay complimenting a particular project funded by ConocoPhillips, must I be forever branded as their advocate?

Unless you can show that Dr. Seitz demonstrated advocacy for something in a way that would compromise his credibility, you are unfairly smearing him as discredited in any of his opinions on global warming. Accepting funding or a grant to conduct a particular study or project for a legal entity is not a mortal sin for anybody.
0 Replies
 
okie
 
  1  
Reply Sun 17 Feb, 2008 10:34 pm
Speaking of conflicts of interest, "big tree huggers" is one of the biggest. Anti-business, socialists, communists, they have a vested interest in big government, and the green movement or global warming is the trojan horse. Of course, it matters not that communist countries are some of the biggest polluters on the planet, proving there is something haywire with this whole scenario.
0 Replies
 
okie
 
  1  
Reply Sun 17 Feb, 2008 10:42 pm
Diest TKO wrote:
ican711nm wrote:
Diest TKO wrote:
okie wrote:
Diest TKO wrote:


If 20,000yrs ago the Global average temp was only 9 degree lower, then that meant that prior to this century the global average has gone up on average 0.045 degrees per century.

If an increase of 1.3 degrees over the last century is not "alarming" then you've got a screw loose or you simply do not care.

T
K
O

Spectacular math you illustrate, Diest, but where do you get the idea that global temperatures warmed at an average, thus apparently implied constant rate of .045 degrees per century..... and for 20,000 years?

I'll honor none of your requests until you retract your comment.

T
K
O

Now that seems like a very creative way of admitting that you do not know the answer to okie's question! Surprised

By the way, the above 3000+ year sea temperature graph was for the Sargasso Sea.

No. You are incorrect. I'd love nothing more than to answer. All okie has to do is retract his/her false statement. highlighted in red above is the worst math assumption I have ever read.

T
K
O
No need to retract it, diest. You implied by your calculation that the temperature went up that amount per century, simply because that was the average, and I pointed out your mistake. You implied a false assumption.
0 Replies
 
okie
 
  1  
Reply Sun 17 Feb, 2008 10:46 pm
icann, I like the following graph found in your link:
http://www.oism.org/pproject/Slides/Presentation/Slide3.png
0 Replies
 
Diest TKO
 
  1  
Reply Sun 17 Feb, 2008 11:19 pm
okie wrote:
Diest TKO wrote:
ican711nm wrote:
Diest TKO wrote:
okie wrote:
Diest TKO wrote:


If 20,000yrs ago the Global average temp was only 9 degree lower, then that meant that prior to this century the global average has gone up on average 0.045 degrees per century.

If an increase of 1.3 degrees over the last century is not "alarming" then you've got a screw loose or you simply do not care.

T
K
O

Spectacular math you illustrate, Diest, but where do you get the idea that global temperatures warmed at an average, thus apparently implied constant rate of .045 degrees per century..... and for 20,000 years?

I'll honor none of your requests until you retract your comment.

T
K
O

Now that seems like a very creative way of admitting that you do not know the answer to okie's question! Surprised

By the way, the above 3000+ year sea temperature graph was for the Sargasso Sea.

No. You are incorrect. I'd love nothing more than to answer. All okie has to do is retract his/her false statement. highlighted in red above is the worst math assumption I have ever read.

T
K
O
No need to retract it, diest. You implied by your calculation that the temperature went up that amount per century, simply because that was the average, and I pointed out your mistake. You implied a false assumption.

You should put fewer words in my mouth and put more marbles in yours sir.

Averages do not imply a constant change with respect to time. I can drive form New york to San Fransisco and record my average speed the entire trip. I can tell you my average speed, but nowhere in that statement will I have implied anything about a constant speed. You've got two statements to withdraw now.

T
K
O
0 Replies
 
 

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