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Global Warming...New Report...and it ain't happy news

 
 
parados
 
  1  
Reply Thu 8 Nov, 2007 02:36 pm
okie wrote:
If thats the case, mark the bacteria article off. At least read the Coleman article.

The Coleman article isn't science. It is an opinion piece by a TV weatherman. Rolling Eyes
0 Replies
 
parados
 
  1  
Reply Thu 8 Nov, 2007 02:53 pm
ican711nm wrote:
parados wrote:
More proof you don't live in a climate where it can rain on frozen ice. Rolling Eyes
I've lived in both northern and southern areas of the temperate zone. In the northern areas of the temperate zone, I have witnessed following rain in the winter time more ice on lakes and rivers as well as on the land.
What was the air temperature when the rain fell? Was it -20C? Was it even -5c? Rain only falls in winter when a warm front moves in and the air temperature is above freezing.
Quote:

parados wrote:
you also seemed to have missed the part about the average temperature in Antartica during the summer down there. It is -20c.
Yes, currently air close to polar ice is below freezing. But if there were a general warming of the earth, there would also be a general warming of the atmosphere above the polar regions.
Not just below freezing but 20 degrees Celsius below freezing. That would be -4F. I highly doubt you ever saw rain at that temperature. Like I said, you would need to warm 20 degrees celsius to get the air to a temperature to make rain instead of frozen precip. You have ignored that simple fact.

Quote:

parados wrote:
It isn't me. It's science.
No, it is not science. It is religion.

parados wrote:
If there is an increase in the concentration of any green house gas then the temperature should warm. It's simple science that a HS student can conduct tests to show.
That is beside the point we are discussing. We are discussing whether the alleged warming of the earth (0.5C to 1.5C) over the last 100 years is caused primarily by the alleged increase of CO2 (300 to 400 ppm) in the atmosphere over that same period.
Beside the point? Then why did you claim that water vapor would cause cooling since it prevents the CO2 from getting IR? You didn't think it was beside the point until you got the science wrong then suddenly it was no longer important.
Quote:

parados wrote:
No, we don't know if there would be more clouds. We know it is warmer at the equator but there are not clouds there all the time. In fact if you check I bet Seattle has more cloud cover for the year than Miami, yet Miami is quite a bit warmer.
I bet you are right about the cloudiness of Seattle versus Maimi. The variable locations of the respective jet streams relative to each city are the primary determining factors about where the moisture in the atmosphere will collect. The amount of moisture evaporated into the entire atmosphere, is primarily affected by the temperatures of the surfaces of large bodies of water. If the earth were to be warming significantly, there would be significant increases in the evaporation of water into the atmosphere. If that significant increase in evaporation of water has not been observed, the earth is not warming significantly. And if the earth is not warming significantly and the CO2 ppm in the atmosphere is increasing significantly, then the CO2 increase is not the primary cause of global warming.
I already listed several sites for okie that show that there has been an increase in atmospheric humidity.

The relative humidity and cloudyness for Seattle is here
http://www.cityrating.com/cityweather.asp?city=Seattle
for Miami is here
http://www.cityrating.com/cityweather.asp?city=Seattle

They really aren't that much different. Seattle has lower relative humidity during the day in summer but higher in winter yet Seattle has 86 more cloudy days. Your argument that heat will create cloud cover isn't holding much water.
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Thu 8 Nov, 2007 04:35 pm
parados wrote:
ican711nm wrote:
parados wrote:
More proof you don't live in a climate where it can rain on frozen ice. Rolling Eyes
I've lived in both northern and southern areas of the temperate zone. In the northern areas of the temperate zone, I have witnessed following rain in the winter time more ice on lakes and rivers as well as on the land.
What was the air temperature when the rain fell? Was it -20C? Was it even -5c? Rain only falls in winter when a warm front moves in and the air temperature is above freezing.
Near the ground the temperature was about -3C +/- 1C. I don't know what it was in the clouds.

parados wrote:
you also seemed to have missed the part about the average temperature in Antartica during the summer down there. It is -20c.
Yes, currently air close to polar ice is below freezing. But if there were a general warming of the earth, there would also be a general warming of the atmosphere above the polar regions.
parados wrote:
Not just below freezing but 20 degrees Celsius below freezing. That would be -4F. I highly doubt you ever saw rain at that temperature. Like I said, you would need to warm 20 degrees celsius to get the air to a temperature to make rain instead of frozen precip. You have ignored that simple fact.
I haven't ignored that fact. You continue to think it relevant. What is relevant is whether or not the polar regions are warming because of increased CO2 in the atmosphere.

parados wrote:
It isn't me. It's science.
No, it is not science. It is religion.
parados wrote:
If there is an increase in the concentration of any green house gas then the temperature should warm. It's simple science that a HS student can conduct tests to show.
That is beside the point we are discussing. We are discussing whether the alleged warming of the earth (somewhere from 0.5C and 1.5C) over the last 100 years is caused primarily by the alleged increase of CO2 (to somewhere in between 300 and 400 ppm) in the atmosphere over that same period.
parados wrote:
Beside the point? Then why did you claim that water vapor would cause cooling since it prevents the CO2 from getting IR? You didn't think it was beside the point until you got the science wrong then suddenly it was no longer important.
Water vapor in the atmosphere absorbs CO2. When water vapor precipitates, whether in the form of rain or snow, it brings the CO2 it has absorbed from the atmosphere to the surface of the earth, thereby reducing the warming effect of that CO2.

Also, the ability of CO2 to re-radiate IR is diminished when it is absorbed by water vapor whether or not the water vapor has precipitated.

If the earth were actually warming, its atmosphere over the polar regions would also be warming. If and when that happened sufficiently, the precipitation of that water vapor in the atmospheres over the polar regions would increase the amount of that precipitation that is rain. That rain would eventually melt the ice caps under the atmospheres in both polar regions. So far the south polar ice cap is increasing not decreasing. So over the south pole, the atmosphere over the polar regions are not warming sufficiently to cause more rain than snow.

Only the the north polar ice cap is decreasing. I asked you why. You explained why you thought that was happening. Because your explanation was not based on the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere--and therefore was irrelevant to our discussion--I chose not to examine your explanation further.

parados wrote:
No, we don't know if there would be more clouds. We know it is warmer at the equator but there are not clouds there all the time. In fact if you check I bet Seattle has more cloud cover for the year than Miami, yet Miami is quite a bit warmer.
I bet you are right about the cloudiness of Seattle versus Maimi. The difference in the jet streams over each city are the primary determining factors about how much moisture in the atmosphere will condense into clouds. The amount of moisture evaporated into the entire atmosphere, is primarily affected by the temperatures of the surfaces of large bodies of water on the surface of the earth. If the earth were to be warming significantly, there would be significant increases in the evaporation of water into the atmosphere. If that significant increase in evaporation of water has not been observed, the earth is not warming significantly. And if the earth is not warming significantly and the CO2 ppm in the atmosphere is increasing significantly, then the CO2 increase is not the primary cause of global warming.
parados wrote:
I already listed several sites for okie that show that there has been an increase in atmospheric humidity.

The relative humidity and cloudyness for Seattle is here
http://www.cityrating.com/cityweather.asp?city=Seattle
for Miami is here
http://www.cityrating.com/cityweather.asp?city=Seattle

They really aren't that much different. Seattle has lower relative humidity during the day in summer but higher in winter yet Seattle has 86 more cloudy days. Your argument that heat will create cloud cover isn't holding much water.
My argument that the difference in the jet streams in the vacinities of Seattle and Miami explains the difference in cloudiness over these cities. The jet stream over Seattle is cooler than the one over Miami and tends to condense the moisture in the atmosphere over Seattle into clouds more than does the jet stream over Miami. But those are local differences that would continue to occur whether the earth is warming or not. The particular average global temperature does affect the amount of water absorbed by the atmosphere, and therefore generally does affect the amount of clouds in the atmosphere. The more water evaporated into the atmosphere, the more clouds there will be in the atmosphere. The more clouds there are in the atmosphere the more the surface of the earth will be cooled, thereby offsetting the effect of whatever CO2 is in the atmosphere and whatever IR that CO2 re-radiates.
0 Replies
 
parados
 
  1  
Reply Thu 8 Nov, 2007 05:42 pm
Quote:
Only the the north polar ice cap is decreasing. I asked you why. You explained why you thought that was happening. Because your explanation was not based on the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere--and therefore was irrelevant to our discussion--I chose not to examine your explanation further.

I see. You chose to ignore how science works for your own ideas.

This is a the simple layer of how the air, ice and water are

Air at -20C
--------------
Ice at -20C


Ice at 0C
-------------
Water at 0c


Water at 5 C

So, lets say the air has been -20 for 2 months and the ice sheet is at equilibrium. The air then warms to -5 c

This leaves with the following

Air -5c
------------
Ice at -5C

Ice at 0C
-------------
Water at 0c


Water at 5c

What do you think happens with thickness of the ice from the first situation to the second? If you can answer this correctly then you will understand why the water in the ocean is relevant to my answer and also relevant to the amount of CO2 warming the atmosphere.

If the air warms even if it doesn't warm enough to melt the ice on the surface it still will reduce the thickness of the ice sheet. As I said. You ignored the laws of thermodynamics and the movement of water in the ocean.

Lets say the ocean warms and currents carry the warmer water under the ice sheet.

Air -20c
---------
Ice -20c

Ice 0c
--------
water 0c

water 6c

Again, what happens to the ice sheet?

Now do you understand why the Arctic ice can thin even if the temperature never gets above freezing?
0 Replies
 
parados
 
  1  
Reply Thu 8 Nov, 2007 05:47 pm
Quote:
My argument that the difference in the jet streams in the vacinities of Seattle and Miami explains the difference in cloudiness over these cities. The jet stream over Seattle is cooler than the one over Miami and tends to condense the moisture in the atmosphere over Seattle into clouds more than does the jet stream over Miami. But those are local differences that would continue to occur whether the earth is warming or not. The particular average global temperature does affect the amount of water absorbed by the atmosphere, and therefore generally does affect the amount of clouds in the atmosphere. The more water evaporated into the atmosphere, the more clouds there will be in the atmosphere. The more clouds there are in the atmosphere the more the surface of the earth will be cooled, thereby offsetting the effect of whatever CO2 is in the atmosphere and whatever IR that CO2 re-radiates.
So let me see if I got this right. The WARMER jet stream causes there to be fewer clouds.

But if the earth warms then a WARMER jet stream would cause there to be more clouds?

Rolling Eyes
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Fri 9 Nov, 2007 03:09 pm
parados wrote:
Quote:
Only the the north polar ice cap is decreasing. I asked you why. You explained why you thought that was happening. Because your explanation was not based on the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere--and therefore was irrelevant to our discussion--I chose not to examine your explanation further.

I see. You chose to ignore how science works for your own ideas.

...

Now do you understand why the Arctic ice can thin even if the temperature never gets above freezing?

Yes! Warming of the water above 0C that flows beneath ice, will melt the ice.

There is persuasive evidence that increases in the sun's radiation intensity leads to increases in IR radiations and re-radiations from the atmosphere that warm surface land and water.

You alleged that increases of CO2 in the atmosphere raise the temperature of the water flowing under the ice.

You support the allegation that increase in the CO2 ppm in the atmosphere from 300 ppm to 375 ppm over the past 100 years, is the primary cause of global warming over the same period by about 0.5C or 2.5C (depending on whom you believe). What is the evidence that supports this allegation?

Again here's evidence these allegations are false. Here is evidence that CO2 in the atmosphere contributes little to earth warming.

The ability of CO2 to re-radiate IR is reduced when it is absorbed by H2O (for example, water vapor) in the atmosphere, whether or not the water vapor is at, below, or above 0C. It is also reduced when it is absorbed by the ice, water or land on the surface of the earth.

The warmer the earth gets, the warmer the earth's oceans become. The warmer the earth's oceans become, the more H2O in those oceans evaporates and becomes water vapor in the atmosphere. The more water vapor in the atmosphere, the more CO2 in the atmosphere that is absorbed by the water vapor in the atmosphere. When that water vapor condenses into precipitation, the absorbed CO2 returns to the earth.

Consequently, net increases in CO2 in the atmosphere are regulated by nature just as is the sun's radiation. However, the actual effect of the CO2 in the atmosphere is heavily dependent on the intensity of the sun's radiation that reaches the earth's atmosphere.

parados wrote:
So let me see if I got this right. The WARMER jet stream causes there to be fewer clouds.

But if the earth warms then a WARMER jet stream would cause there to be more clouds?

The moisture in jet streams and their temperatures differ according to their longitudes and altitudes. For a given amount of moisture in the air in a particular jet stream, the warmer that jet stream air becomes the fewer the clouds in that air.

But when the earth warms, it increases the amount of moisture in the atmosphere in general, and in the air of jet streams in particular. But the temperature of the air in jet streams will still vary. So in a warmer atmosphere, the warmer jet streams will cause fewer clouds than will the cooler jet streams.
0 Replies
 
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Fri 9 Nov, 2007 03:28 pm
Ican, that isn't 'evidence.' That's your theory.

Evidence would be an experiment of some type showing that what you claim is true. I expect you to link to your evidence forthwith.

Cycloptichorn
0 Replies
 
mysteryman
 
  1  
Reply Fri 9 Nov, 2007 03:55 pm
Accordinbg to some reports I have read, the retreating glaciers have exposed tree stumps and villages that are hundreds if not thousands of years old.

During the time of the vikings Greenland WAS green, it was a farming settlement.
Now, its mostly ice.

So here is my question, if all that is true (and I have no reason to doubt it), couldnt it be said that the earth, at least in those areas, was warmer in those times then it is now?
After all, those tree stumps are approx 7000 years old.
So,the earth had to be warmer then, since it is the retreating glaciers that are exposing them.
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Fri 9 Nov, 2007 04:09 pm
Cycloptichorn wrote:
Ican, that isn't 'evidence.' That's your theory.

Evidence would be an experiment of some type showing that what you claim is true. I expect you to link to your evidence forthwith.

Cycloptichorn

No! It's not my theory. It's someone else's theory, or rather other people's theories, that have been shown to be true by experimental physicists over about the last 100 years.

I realize you want to see the evidence for yourself. So I recommend you take a course in physics and then follow it up with a course in the science of weather.

I bet you won't follow my recommendation. I also bet that I won't transcribe all the evidence you require--not even some of it--widely available in my home library, and in the public library, that supports my borrowed theories.

Consequently, you will have to remain ignorant of that evidence. Crying or Very sad
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Fri 9 Nov, 2007 04:25 pm
Quote:
However, Global Warming, i.e. Climate Change, is not about environmentalism or politics. It is not a religion. It is not something you "believe in." It is science; the science of meteorology. This is my field of life-long expertise. And I am telling you Global Warming is a non-event, a manufactured crisis and a total scam. I say this knowing you probably won't believe a me, a mere TV weatherman, challenging a Nobel Prize, Academy Award and Emmy Award winning former Vice President of United States. So be it.

I have read dozens of scientific papers. I have talked with numerous scientists. I have studied. I have thought about it. I know I am correct. There is no run away climate change. The impact of humans on climate is not catastrophic. Our planet is not in peril. I am incensed by the incredible media glamour, the politically correct silliness and rude dismissal of counter arguments by the high priest of Global Warming.

In time, a decade or two, the outrageous scam will be obvious. As the temperature rises, polar ice cap melting, coastal flooding and super storm pattern all fail to occur as predicted everyone will come to realize we have been duped. The sky is not falling. And, natural cycles and drifts in climate are as much if not more responsible for any climate changes underway. I strongly believe that the next twenty years are equally as likely to see a cooling trend as they are to see a warming trend.

See John's full blog story here.. See John's forecast blog on the KUSI site here.
0 Replies
 
okie
 
  1  
Reply Fri 9 Nov, 2007 04:38 pm
mysteryman wrote:
Accordinbg to some reports I have read, the retreating glaciers have exposed tree stumps and villages that are hundreds if not thousands of years old.

During the time of the vikings Greenland WAS green, it was a farming settlement.
Now, its mostly ice.

So here is my question, if all that is true (and I have no reason to doubt it), couldnt it be said that the earth, at least in those areas, was warmer in those times then it is now?
After all, those tree stumps are approx 7000 years old.
So,the earth had to be warmer then, since it is the retreating glaciers that are exposing them.


Maybe they will eventually start finding old cars under the melting ice, MM, and it will all be finally explained?
0 Replies
 
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Fri 9 Nov, 2007 04:38 pm
Ican,

As I minored in Physics I have little doubt that I've taken more physics courses then you have; and the ones that you may have taken would be half a century or so ago, so you probably can't remember then anyways.

Link to the evidence showing that experiments have proven what you say is, in fact, true.

Cycloptichorn
0 Replies
 
parados
 
  1  
Reply Fri 9 Nov, 2007 05:33 pm
Ok Ican.

Either CO2 reflects heat back to the surface or it doesn't
Either water is warmed by the heat reflected by the CO2 or it isn't.
Either water transfers heat by thermal conduction or it doesn't
Either the ocean has currents or it doesn't.
Either the globe is presently warming or it isn't.

If CO2 reflects heat back to the ocean then the ocean warms and currents can and do move that heat under the ice caps. Of course simple thermal conduction also moves that heat under the ice caps.

Quote:
Yes! Warming of the water above 0C that flows beneath ice, will melt the ice.
This statement pretty much shows you don't understand the physics of heat transfer. The MAJORITY of the water under the ice is warmer than 0c. It gets its heat from the rest of the ocean that is warmed by the sun and the reflection of IR back to it. The heat then flows to the boundary between the ice and the water where the temperature is right at the freezing point, then through the ice, to the air and finally out into space. The boundary where the water and the ice meet will alway be very near 0c. If it increases then it melts ice and the boundary returns to 0c. If it decreases then ice is formed and the boundary returns to 0c.
0 Replies
 
parados
 
  1  
Reply Fri 9 Nov, 2007 05:43 pm
Ican,
I can find no scientific article that says CO2 acts any differently to IR if it is close to water molecules.

Molecules in a liquid and a solid are not packed so tightly that they can't vibrate. CO2 vibrates from IR it absorbs. Please provide your evidence that CO2 vibrates differently if it is in water vs free in the air

If you are correct Ican, it would mean much of what we know about the universe could well be wrong since spectroscopy requires that molecules always react the same to electromagnetic energy.
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Fri 9 Nov, 2007 05:53 pm
mysteryman wrote:
Accordinbg to some reports I have read, the retreating glaciers have exposed tree stumps and villages that are hundreds if not thousands of years old.

During the time of the vikings Greenland WAS green, it was a farming settlement.
Now, its mostly ice.

So here is my question, if all that is true (and I have no reason to doubt it), couldnt it be said that the earth, at least in those areas, was warmer in those times then it is now?
After all, those tree stumps are approx 7000 years old.
So,the earth had to be warmer then, since it is the retreating glaciers that are exposing them.


Mysteryman, perhaps you might find this amusing.

In my 6th grade days, I was told by my teachers and the books I read that (I paraphrase): The earth used to be tropical in the current arctic and antarctic regions. Therefore the spin axis of the earth must have shifted over time, making into polar regions what was previously tropical regions.

Even as a 6th grade student, I thought this incredible. I thought it incredible because no other evidence for this astonishing shift was offered by my teachers or my books that this was true. I wondered even then, how could the earth's spin axis be change so much by any unknown force or forces without tearing the earth apart. I thought there had to be a better more believable explanation than the earth's spin axis shifted.

Later on I tried to create thought experiments and then actual ones to see what would happen to the spin of a pitched baseball, if I whacked it hard enough to change its spin axis. Yes, even though the spin axis changed, the cover remained on the ball until it had been suitably whacked about a hundred times.

Then about the 8th grade, I wondered how big a bat and force it would take to do the same thing to the earth. About the 11th grade, I tried in vain to compute how big a bat and force (e.g., meteorite collision) would be required to change the earth's spin axis without the earth losing its cover. Then I learned the earth's spin axis wobbles, but I also learned that wobble is quite small such that only careful scientific observations and not mere human bodily senses can feel it.

Well finally, I started paying more attention to geologist's findings. They observed that the earth had gone through at least 4 ice-to-tropical-to-ice age cycles in the last 200 thousand years. They also found that the ice in each of those ages spread from the current poles and back.

Eureka, I shouted. That's it! The earth's heating and cooling is cyclic without the earth's spin axis shifting much at all. So my next quest was to find out why the earth had multi-twenty-thousand year heating and cooling cycles. I soon learned a possible explanation: the sun's radiation intensity is cyclic too.

Smile But now, as an old buzzard, who has witnessed the earth's curvature directly from high altitudes while releasing massive amounts of CO2 into the atmosphere, I have deduced from many current published findings, an even more surprising thing. Humans like us, who have lived on this earth about a quarter of a million years, have over that time period repeatedly invented, developed, used, and susequently lost stuff (possibly, furnaces, machines, and engines) that introduced vast amounts of CO2 into the atmosphere, and that CO2 caused those vast weather changes. Furthermore, I've deduced that periodically humans lost that CO2 making stuff because the witch doctors among them, seeking more power over their fellows, convinced their fellows that that CO2 producing stuff was dangerous to the survival of the earth and them. So they destroyed that stuff, and their survival became cyclic too.

Bye! Bye! Baby!
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Fri 9 Nov, 2007 06:04 pm
parados wrote:

...

If you are correct Ican, it would mean much of what we know about the universe could well be wrong since spectroscopy requires that molecules always react the same to electromagnetic energy.

More correctly stated: spectroscopy requires that molecules OF THE SAME KIND WITHIN THE SAME PHYSICAL CONDITIONS always react the same to electromagnetic energy.
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Fri 9 Nov, 2007 06:13 pm
parados wrote:

...
ican wrote:
Yes! Warming of the water above 0C that flows beneath ice, will melt the ice.
This statement pretty much shows you don't understand the physics of heat transfer.

That statement of yours shows you pretty much do not understand logic. I didn't say in that sentence when, where or how that water is warmed. However, whenever, wherever, or however that water is warmed above 0C, when that water flows beneath ice, it will melt that ice.
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Fri 9 Nov, 2007 06:16 pm
Cycloptichorn wrote:
Ican,

As I minored in Physics I have little doubt that I've taken more physics courses then you have; and the ones that you may have taken would be half a century or so ago, so you probably can't remember then anyways.

Link to the evidence showing that experiments have proven what you say is, in fact, true.

Cycloptichorn

Be specific! What is it that I have said that you want me to back up with a link to evidence?
0 Replies
 
parados
 
  1  
Reply Fri 9 Nov, 2007 06:22 pm
ican711nm wrote:
parados wrote:

...
ican wrote:
Yes! Warming of the water above 0C that flows beneath ice, will melt the ice.
This statement pretty much shows you don't understand the physics of heat transfer.

That statement of yours shows you pretty much do not understand logic. I didn't say in that sentence when, where or how that water is warmed. However, whenever, wherever, or however that water is warmed above 0C, when that water flows beneath ice, it will melt that ice.


So, does CO2 in the atmosphere warm open water or not when it radiates IR?
0 Replies
 
parados
 
  1  
Reply Fri 9 Nov, 2007 06:27 pm
ican711nm wrote:
parados wrote:

...

If you are correct Ican, it would mean much of what we know about the universe could well be wrong since spectroscopy requires that molecules always react the same to electromagnetic energy.

More correctly stated: spectroscopy requires that molecules OF THE SAME KIND WITHIN THE SAME PHYSICAL CONDITIONS always react the same to electromagnetic energy.

I see. So then you will provide us of the source for your claim that CO2 doesn't absorb as much IR when it is in water vapor?
0 Replies
 
 

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