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Global Warming...New Report...and it ain't happy news

 
 
blatham
 
  1  
Reply Thu 8 Nov, 2007 07:48 am
Okie

You are a non-scientific, extremist partisan voice of a particular sort. I can imagine no set of data or no degree of scientific consensus which might signifiantly alter your viewpoint.
0 Replies
 
spendius
 
  1  
Reply Thu 8 Nov, 2007 08:07 am
Bernie-

That's just another way of slamming the door and having your footsteps fade into the night.
0 Replies
 
Vietnamnurse
 
  1  
Reply Thu 8 Nov, 2007 08:08 am
Blatham,

Please tell Okie that I don't think global warming trite. I just can't tolerate hair splitting over the obvious scientific data. Galileo must have felt the wrath of these same types. As for Isaac Newton and gravity...there must have been a few Okies around then too.

You are still handsome in your Mountie uniform....

I am reading "The Shock Doctrine" by Naomi Klein and I am serious when I say this...I KNEW A LOT OF THIS, but it shocks the Hell out of me. The neolib/neocons are doing the same to Iraq and you might as well say to our own country.

Hello to Walter and Parados....

I think we may seriously look for real estate in the UK or Canada. If our money is worth anything. Crying or Very sad
0 Replies
 
okie
 
  1  
Reply Thu 8 Nov, 2007 08:12 am
I admit to a bias, and one of my pet peaves is junk science. Hey, science was my chosen profession, and I worked among other scientists for years so I have an opinion of how all of this works. I approach science with a healthy skepticism. I've seen too many trendy ideas come and go to believe them all. When the global warmers, which are mostly politicians, come up with a solid foundation of reason and proven sufficient data, I will be happy to buy into it. Until that time, I am not going to be another sucker.
0 Replies
 
parados
 
  1  
Reply Thu 8 Nov, 2007 08:14 am
Quote:
If the earth were to warm sufficiently, the temperature of the air above the arctic and antarctic would also warm sufficiently to permit rain in the arctic and antarctic. After the rain came to rest on the arctic or antarctic ice, it would probably freeze.
More proof you don't live in a climate where it can rain on frozen ice. Rolling Eyes

So.. let's see. In order for water to freeze the temperature must be 0c or below. In order for rain to fall the temperature must be 0c or above. Rain that is 5c from 5c air falling on 0c ice will NOT freeze. It will melt some of the ice. I don't have time to explain the laws of thermodynamics to you. But anyone that has ever seen a frozen lake can tell you the exact same thing from experience. The rain and the ice will try to reach the same temperature. The only way to do that is for some of the ice to melt.

But then you also seemed to have missed the part about the average temperature in Antartica during the summer down there. It is -20c. That is the temperature for the day, ALL day. There is no sundown to make it colder that would cause the average to be significantly higher during daylight hours. That means the global temperature would have to warm almost 20 degrees centigrade to get that temperature up high enough to warm the air to cause rain. Even if we assume just local warming would cause rain to fall in the center of Antarctica it would probably require that global temperatures rise 10c. Antartica is a rather large sheet of ice that spends half the year getting very cold and the other half trying to warm up.
Quote:

We are not talking about present conditions. We are talking about what current global warming folks predict will happen to future earth temperatures.
No one is predicting that the globe will warm 20c or even 10c in the next 100 years. I haven't even seen any predictions that it will warm that much in the next 1000. For it do so would be pretty drastic. If you have a source that shows someone predicting this kind of temperature increase that has been published in a scientific paper, by all means present it to us because I am unaware of it.

Quote:

By the way, your over 40 years residence "in the northern climes" did not occur at any time when the earth warmed sufficiently for the temperature of the air above the arctic and antarctic to also warm sufficiently to permit rain in the arctic and antarctic. If the hysterical global warming predictions were to actually prove true, that sufficient air temperature rise to permit rain would probably occur.
Physics doesn't change because the earth warms 1c or even 2c There is no "hysterical global warming prediction" that predicts the central part of Antarctica will warm to 0c. If it does, we will have a lot more problems than simply rain in the Antarctic.

Quote:

It is you, not me, who is attempting to make the case that the CO2 produced by human caused combustion is sufficient to warm the earth. Of course, there is methane and other gases that can be worse greenhouse gases. But those other gases are not being released by human caused combustion in sufficient quantity to warm the earth enough to warrant any concern.

It isn't me. It's science. But I don't have time to explain something to you that you seem incapable of understanding. Did you even try to understand my explanation? I realize it requires some 6th grade math but still it can't be that difficult. If there is no increase in green house gases then the world's temperature stays the same. If there is an increase in the concentration of any green house gas then the temperature should warm. It's simple science that a HS student can conduct tests to show.

Quote:
True! And there would be more clouds not less if the hysterical earth warming forecasts were to eventually prove true. Subsequently, the earth would cool not warm. But the earth is warming. Neither you nor I really know why. My bet is that variations in the sun's radiation intensity is the really significant culprit, and not the human caused CO2 in the atmosphere.

No, we don't know if there would be more clouds. We know it is warmer at the equator but there are not clouds there all the time. In fact if you check I bet Seattle has more cloud cover for the year than Miami, yet Miami is quite a bit warmer. Wishful thinking on your part about solar radiation being the entire cause doesn't change the physics involved. You are free to disbelieve in anything you want but don't expect others to accept your ideas as being anything other than the rantings of a madman if they have no science behind them.
0 Replies
 
blatham
 
  1  
Reply Thu 8 Nov, 2007 08:20 am
Vietnamnurse wrote:
Blatham,

Please tell Okie that I don't think global warming trite. I just can't tolerate hair splitting over the obvious scientific data. Galileo must have felt the wrath of these same types. As for Isaac Newton and gravity...there must have been a few Okies around then too.

You are still handsome in your Mountie uniform....

I am reading "The Shock Doctrine" by Naomi Klein and I am serious when I say this...I KNEW A LOT OF THIS, but it shocks the Hell out of me. The neolib/neocons are doing the same to Iraq and you might as well say to our own country.

Hello to Walter and Parados....

I think we may seriously look for real estate in the UK or Canada. If our money is worth anything. Crying or Very sad

Yes, it's an unhappy time. We are in Portland Oregon now. Of course, I'm from the Pacific Northwest so climate/culture is quite familiar. I dearly miss New York. Though I had no way of predicting it, after growing up in a little farming town and with a lifetime of outdoorsiness, but I felt very much at home in all the bustle and ethnic diversity and cultural/intellectual buzz.

You'd like canada, I expect, or lots of other places. If you recall Steglitz from abuzz, he just got so fed up he and his family moved to germany. He had no regrets.

Haven't read Klein's book (though I'm certainly a fan). I can recommend Krugman's new one. And its actually hopeful.
0 Replies
 
blatham
 
  1  
Reply Thu 8 Nov, 2007 08:24 am
spendius wrote:
Bernie-

That's just another way of slamming the door and having your footsteps fade into the night.


Hardly a problem on a lovely moonlit evening when the activities back in that place one just left bore to tears.
0 Replies
 
Thomas
 
  1  
Reply Thu 8 Nov, 2007 08:38 am
blatham wrote:
I dearly miss New York.

Nya nya nya nya nyaaaaaa-nya!

Ahem. Sorry. Back to our regularly scheduled program.
0 Replies
 
blatham
 
  1  
Reply Thu 8 Nov, 2007 08:41 am
Thomas wrote:
blatham wrote:
I dearly miss New York.

Nya nya nya nya nyaaaaaa-nya!

Ahem. Sorry. Back to our regularly scheduled program.


Very funny, you teutonic arse.
0 Replies
 
parados
 
  1  
Reply Thu 8 Nov, 2007 08:41 am
okie wrote:
blatham wrote:
hi beautiful!

Threads that continue on this long usually move from the terrific to the trite and back.

How the heck are you?

Is suggesting that the sun is affecting temperature trite?
Suggesting the sun is affecting temperature isn't trite. Most scientists say the same thing. Suggesting the sun is causing all the warming and then comparing your figures over 120 years with a figure from 25 years and claiming because they are the same proves you right would be trite.
Quote:

Haggling over tenths of a degree, or hundreths of a degree, I would agree is trite, as Parados is doing. My basic premise still stands, that the sun is likely a reason for global warming, how much I don't know, and I would submit nobody knows.
Your basic premise has changed it seems. But rather than looking at the actual math or presenting us with yours you declare yourself correct but when challenged you then say "nobody knows." Just because you can't support what you first claimed doesn't mean no one else can support their position.

Quote:

Now in regard to the greenhouse effect, all Parados has accomplished here is argue that precipitation affects ice. Wow, what a novel concept, that I am glad that the likes of Parados has finally awakened to.

That statement of yours is completely asinine and shows you for what you are. ican and you have attempted to use the increase in ice on Antartica as somehow proving that the Antartica and the globe aren't warming. Gee. the ONLY thing you proved is that percipitation affects ice. Something I already knew but others here were trying to show precipitation only occurs if someplace 1. doesn't warm or 2. gets cooler.
Quote:

I wish all global warmers could wake up to that, and as part of another novel concept they could also include water vapor as a component of greenhouse gas of the supposed greenhouse effect.
Again with the silly arguments. I never said that water vapor wasn't a component of the green house effect. I only pointed out that your claim made no sense and still doesn't make sense since you compared 120 years to 25.

Quote:
And as I said, I would love it if some scientist could present historical evidence of the levels of water vapor when they begin to do their wonderful greenhouse gas calcualations showing how it is going to kill us all and destroy the earth in a few decades.

Unless perhaps such would be too trite for scientists to consider?
Have you bothered to check the science before you made this statement? Obviously not.
Global Warming and Humidity

Quote:
satellite measurements, combined with balloon data and some in-situ ground measurements indicate generally positive trends in global water vapor.

http://www.mercurynews.com/breakingnews/ci_6919307?nclick_check=1
http://citeseer.ist.psu.edu/472984.html
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2005/11/1110_051110_warming.html
http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/summary/296/5568/665
http://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/abstracts/2001/Shindell.html
0 Replies
 
parados
 
  1  
Reply Thu 8 Nov, 2007 08:49 am
okie wrote:
I admit to a bias, and one of my pet peaves is junk science. Hey, science was my chosen profession, and I worked among other scientists for years so I have an opinion of how all of this works. I approach science with a healthy skepticism. I've seen too many trendy ideas come and go to believe them all. When the global warmers, which are mostly politicians, come up with a solid foundation of reason and proven sufficient data, I will be happy to buy into it. Until that time, I am not going to be another sucker.
Yeah.. all those dang politicians publishing articles in scientific journals. Rolling Eyes Those politicians seem to have published so many articles that there isn't any room for "real scientists" (like okie) to publish anything in those same journals.
0 Replies
 
okie
 
  1  
Reply Thu 8 Nov, 2007 10:06 am
parados wrote:
okie wrote:
blatham wrote:
hi beautiful!

Threads that continue on this long usually move from the terrific to the trite and back.

How the heck are you?

Is suggesting that the sun is affecting temperature trite?
Suggesting the sun is affecting temperature isn't trite. Most scientists say the same thing. Suggesting the sun is causing all the warming and then comparing your figures over 120 years with a figure from 25 years and claiming because they are the same proves you right would be trite.

We hear very very little in the press, and very little credence is given to the sun as a significant player in the perceived global warming problem. From the following site, even though they admit the sun could be a significant factor but since they don't know what factor it is, they say the following:
"There is though, a great deal of uncertainty in estimates of solar irradiance beyond what can be measured by satellites, and still the contribution of direct solar irradiance forcing is small compared to the greenhouse gas component."

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/globalwarming.html#Q3
Quote:
Quote:
Haggling over tenths of a degree, or hundreths of a degree, I would agree is trite, as Parados is doing. My basic premise still stands, that the sun is likely a reason for global warming, how much I don't know, and I would submit nobody knows.
Your basic premise has changed it seems. But rather than looking at the actual math or presenting us with yours you declare yourself correct but when challenged you then say "nobody knows." Just because you can't support what you first claimed doesn't mean no one else can support their position.

If you had read my posts more carefully, you would have known I did my math in a few minutes as a tongue in cheek exercise to show the logic behind the concept. I have said repeatedly that arguing over a tenth of a degree is a pointless exercise. My main point is that it is scientifically logical to conclude that variations in the solar cycles can affect the climate, and may be the dominant reason for what we are measuring now. I don't think I have ever claimed that I knew for sure the amount of impact it contributes, but I have expressed an opinion that it is totally logical and reasonable to believe it is an important contributor, and that the factor was being unduly ignored and downplayed.

Quote:
Quote:

Now in regard to the greenhouse effect, all Parados has accomplished here is argue that precipitation affects ice. Wow, what a novel concept, that I am glad that the likes of Parados has finally awakened to.

That statement of yours is completely asinine and shows you for what you are. ican and you have attempted to use the increase in ice on Antartica as somehow proving that the Antartica and the globe aren't warming. Gee. the ONLY thing you proved is that percipitation affects ice. Something I already knew but others here were trying to show precipitation only occurs if someplace 1. doesn't warm or 2. gets cooler.

To turn the argument around, how often do we hear that the decrease in Arctic ice may actually be due largely to precipitation, not temperature?
Quote:
Quote:

I wish all global warmers could wake up to that, and as part of another novel concept they could also include water vapor as a component of greenhouse gas of the supposed greenhouse effect.
Again with the silly arguments. I never said that water vapor wasn't a component of the green house effect. I only pointed out that your claim made no sense and still doesn't make sense since you compared 120 years to 25.

You apparently did not read the posts wherein I cited 120 years to 120 years as you requested, so can you move on?

Quote:
Quote:
And as I said, I would love it if some scientist could present historical evidence of the levels of water vapor when they begin to do their wonderful greenhouse gas calcualations showing how it is going to kill us all and destroy the earth in a few decades.

Unless perhaps such would be too trite for scientists to consider?
Have you bothered to check the science before you made this statement? Obviously not.
Global Warming and Humidity

Quote:
satellite measurements, combined with balloon data and some in-situ ground measurements indicate generally positive trends in global water vapor.

http://www.mercurynews.com/breakingnews/ci_6919307?nclick_check=1
http://citeseer.ist.psu.edu/472984.html
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2005/11/1110_051110_warming.html
http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/summary/296/5568/665
http://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/abstracts/2001/Shindell.html

Well, great, Parados, I am glad a few scientists are beginning to get on board with the water vapor studies. Again, I notice they have to assign it to manmade causes, but where is the evidence that man is entirely responsible for that? Interesting they say water vapor is actually the dominant greenhouse gas, well what a revelation that must have been to them, what have some of us been saying for the last 20 years or so, since this all came up? And then they admit they have very little historical water vapor data and that they are only now beginning to collect more. Big question, since they lack alot of data concerning the most important greenhouse gas, how in the world have they been cranking out all their computer models with all of the dire predictions, without sufficient data for the most important factor? Just a question, pardon me for being stupid and asking another dumb question.
0 Replies
 
spendius
 
  1  
Reply Thu 8 Nov, 2007 10:07 am
Bernie wrote-

Quote:
Hardly a problem on a lovely moonlit evening when the activities back in that place one just left bore to tears.


Yes, alright. But the proper thing is simply to leave quietly and resist the conceit of a parting shot when other debaters take directions you don't care for.

The suspicion might arise that if we don't all kow-tow to your viewpoint and allow you to hold the floor you are jolly well off and are going to let us all know with emphasis.
0 Replies
 
parados
 
  1  
Reply Thu 8 Nov, 2007 11:30 am
okie wrote:
pardon me for being stupid


Maybe if you held yourself to the same standard you want to hold the science to you wouldn't need to apologize.
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Thu 8 Nov, 2007 01:27 pm
parados wrote:
More proof you don't live in a climate where it can rain on frozen ice. Rolling Eyes
I've lived in both northern and southern areas of the temperate zone. In the northern areas of the temperate zone, I have witnessed following rain in the winter time more ice on lakes and rivers as well as on the land.

parados wrote:
you also seemed to have missed the part about the average temperature in Antartica during the summer down there. It is -20c.
Yes, currently air close to polar ice is below freezing. But if there were a general warming of the earth, there would also be a general warming of the atmosphere above the polar regions.

parados wrote:
It isn't me. It's science.
No, it is not science. It is religion.

parados wrote:
If there is an increase in the concentration of any green house gas then the temperature should warm. It's simple science that a HS student can conduct tests to show.
That is beside the point we are discussing. We are discussing whether the alleged warming of the earth (0.5C to 1.5C) over the last 100 years is caused primarily by the alleged increase of CO2 (300 to 400 ppm) in the atmosphere over that same period.

parados wrote:
No, we don't know if there would be more clouds. We know it is warmer at the equator but there are not clouds there all the time. In fact if you check I bet Seattle has more cloud cover for the year than Miami, yet Miami is quite a bit warmer.
I bet you are right about the cloudiness of Seattle versus Maimi. The variable locations of the respective jet streams relative to each city are the primary determining factors about where the moisture in the atmosphere will collect. The amount of moisture evaporated into the entire atmosphere, is primarily affected by the temperatures of the surfaces of large bodies of water. If the earth were to be warming significantly, there would be significant increases in the evaporation of water into the atmosphere. If that significant increase in evaporation of water has not been observed, the earth is not warming significantly. And if the earth is not warming significantly and the CO2 ppm in the atmosphere is increasing significantly, then the CO2 increase is not the primary cause of global warming.
0 Replies
 
okie
 
  1  
Reply Thu 8 Nov, 2007 01:34 pm
parados wrote:
okie wrote:
pardon me for being stupid


Maybe if you held yourself to the same standard you want to hold the science to you wouldn't need to apologize.


Check these articles out by more "stupid" people, Parados. Expand your mind.

The first one contains an article by John Coleman, founder of weather channel.
http://www.icecap.us/

Then this article about benthic bacteria:
http://geoclimaticstudies.info/benthic_bacteria.htm

Every time I turn around, there is a new theory out there about global warming. The "science" seems to be in a big state of flux, Parados, for something that is so nailed down with precision by your hot to trot global warming doomsdayers.
0 Replies
 
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Thu 8 Nov, 2007 01:51 pm
okie wrote:
Then this article about benthic bacteria:
http://geoclimaticstudies.info/benthic_bacteria.htm


Vol23 No. 3 Where is that magazine published? Where are the other volumes besides those mentioned from 2007?

Whois:
Domain ID:D21379999-LRMS
Domain Name:GEOCLIMATICSTUDIES.INFO
Created On:02-Nov-2007 14:50:19 UTC
Expiration Date:02-Nov-2008 14:50:19 UTC
Sponsoring Registrar:Tucows Inc. (R139-LRMS)


A "Department of Climatology" at "University of Arizona" doesn't exist, nor is there a "Department of Atmospheric Physics" at "Göteborgs Universitet".

If this isn't an hoax, I don't know how else you would describe it.
0 Replies
 
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Thu 8 Nov, 2007 01:52 pm
Rush fell for it too.

C'mon, you guys - get with the program...

Cycloptichorn
0 Replies
 
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Thu 8 Nov, 2007 01:58 pm
Nearly all experts mentioned on the "icecup" site are also listed in "List of scientists opposing global warming consensus".

Those who are not mentioned, aren't mentioned elsewhere, too.
0 Replies
 
okie
 
  1  
Reply Thu 8 Nov, 2007 02:03 pm
If thats the case, mark the bacteria article off. At least read the Coleman article.
0 Replies
 
 

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