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Global Warming...New Report...and it ain't happy news

 
 
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Sun 4 Mar, 2007 08:22 am
That could be read in such a way. And that's the reason why I give the above wiki-link

Quote:
Notes: Does not include natural CO2 emissions
- World total 24,126,416 100 %
- United States Total 5,844,042 24.3 %
0 Replies
 
Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Sun 4 Mar, 2007 08:46 am
So to put it entirely into perspective, what is the quantity of and natural fluctuations of the natural CO2 emissions? Wouldn't we need to know that to determine the significance of the manmade CO2 emissions? And do the statistics factor in components such as George cited of cutting down a rain forest? The results of that would also be human caused, but would not be measurable as emissions.
0 Replies
 
parados
 
  1  
Reply Sun 4 Mar, 2007 09:02 am
http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/co2/sio-mlo.htm
The records are online here..
http://cdiac.ornl.gov/ftp/ndp001/maunaloa.co2

then there are the historical records from the ice cores..
Here is a simple place to start..
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/3792209.stm

We do happen to know what the CO2 in the atmosphere has been for the last 740,000 years. I would say that is a pretty long perspective to use, wouldn't you Fox?
0 Replies
 
miniTAX
 
  1  
Reply Sun 4 Mar, 2007 09:06 am
Foxfyre wrote:
So to put it entirely into perspective, what is the quantity of the natural CO2 emissions? Wouldn't we need to know that to determine the significance of the manmade CO2 emissions?

Of the carbon going into the atmosphere annually, 250 Gt are natural, 7 Gt are manmade (3% of total) but those numbers are far from accurate.
Manmade CO2 emission is up each year, just like atmospheric CO2 but the 2 trends do not correlate well.
The concentration of the other major GHG, methane (whose forcing is about 1/3 that of CO2) has stabilised in the atmosphere and nobody knows why.
0 Replies
 
miniTAX
 
  1  
Reply Sun 4 Mar, 2007 09:08 am
parados wrote:
We do happen to know what the CO2 in the atmosphere has been for the last 740,000 years. I would say that is a pretty long perspective to use, wouldn't you Fox?
This pretty long perspective tells us that temperature is responsible for atmospheric CO2 content and NOT the reverse. Exclamation
0 Replies
 
parados
 
  1  
Reply Sun 4 Mar, 2007 10:20 am
miniTAX wrote:
parados wrote:
We do happen to know what the CO2 in the atmosphere has been for the last 740,000 years. I would say that is a pretty long perspective to use, wouldn't you Fox?
This pretty long perspective tells us that temperature is responsible for atmospheric CO2 content and NOT the reverse. Exclamation

Really? How does it do that? We know they correlate.

Here is a simple experiment that you can perform that will show that CO2 affects the heat retention of air.
http://www.beloit.edu/~SEPM/Geology_and_the_enviro/Earth_warming.html

Provide your experiment that shows that heating a container of air increases the amount of CO2.

Lacking any experiment that shows heat causes CO2, I am left with the only logical hypothesis that CO2 is the cause of the heat retention and not the other way around.
0 Replies
 
Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Sun 4 Mar, 2007 10:37 am
Well no. Even with my limited knowledge, I think most scientists see it the other way around.

Quote:
Researchers of the 1970s CLIMAP project found strong evidence in deep-ocean sediments of variations in the Earth's global temperature during the past several hundred thousand years of the Earth's history. Other subsequent studies have confirmed these findings and have discovered that these temperature variations were closely correlated to the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and variations in solar radiation received by the planet as controlled by the Milankovitch cycles. Measurements indicated that atmospheric carbon dioxide levels were about 30 % lower during colder glacial periods. It was also theorized that the oceans were a major store of carbon dioxide and that they controlled the movement of this gas to and from the atmosphere. The amount of carbon dioxide that can be held in oceans is a function of temperature. Carbon dioxide is released from the oceans when global temperatures become warmer and diffuses into the ocean when temperatures are cooler. Initial changes in global temperature were triggered by changes in received solar radiation by the Earth through the Milankovitch cycles. The increase in carbon dioxide then amplified the global warming by enhancing the greenhouse effect


http://www.physicalgeography.net/fundamentals/7y.html

The AGW crowd will be happy that this particular source also supports the theory that human activity is also increasing the CO2 in the atmosphere.
0 Replies
 
georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Sun 4 Mar, 2007 10:40 am
parados wrote:
Read the ENTIRE sentence george.

Quote:
The United States already is responsible for roughly one-quarter of the world's carbon dioxide and other "greenhouse" gases that scientists blame for global warming.


The statement is NOT about all the CO2. It is about the CO2 that scientists blame. There is no other reading possible.

The natural sources of CO2 have a cycle that kept the levels fairly constant. It is the added man made CO2 that has caused increases in levels because the natural cycle can't keep up.


Your statements here are wrong in each and every detail.

The quoted statement was indeed ambiguous about just what was the component of the CO2 of which the United Srtates is supposed to account for 25% of production. ALL net CO2 increases contribute to the greenhouse effect, whether from the decay of vegetable matter or the burning of petroleum or coal.

Moreover the processes that remove CO2 from the air - the growth of green plants and absorption by the oceans and lakes (forming carbonic acid, which eventually precipitates as limestone.) can strongly affect the resulting atmospheric levels.

The "natural" sources of CO2 have definately NOT "kept the levels fairly constant" over geologic time as you said. The geological record indicates periods of intense volcanic activity that significantly altered the atmosphere. Solar activity is significantly variable, as is increasingly becoming known and understood. As a result of these and other "natural" factors the temperate zones of the earth have experienced multiple ice ages and periods of relative warmpth.

The earth is not, and never has been, in physical equilibrium.
0 Replies
 
parados
 
  1  
Reply Sun 4 Mar, 2007 11:59 am
Calculations to show that the present CO2 concentrations couldn't have come from warming oceans.

http://www.john-daly.com/oceanco2/oceanco2.htm

Please feel free to refute with your own math.
0 Replies
 
Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Sun 4 Mar, 2007 03:20 pm
Okay, here's more than just a shot across the bow aimed at the AGW advocates. And if it catches on, look for this debate to really heat up. I apologize for posting the whole thing, but I think this is one of the sites that doesn't leave their articles up very long.

UK News
'Global Warming Is Lies' Claims Documentary
Sunday, 4th March 2007, 11:04

Accepted theories about man causing global warming are "lies" claims a controversial new TV documentary.

?'The Great Global Warming Swindle' - backed by eminent scientists - is set to rock the accepted consensus that climate change is being driven by humans.

The programme, to be screened on Channel 4 on Thursday March 8, will see a series of respected scientists attack the "propaganda" that they claim is killing the world's poor.

Even the co-founder of Greenpeace, Patrick Moore, is shown, claiming African countries should be encouraged to burn more CO2.

Nobody in the documentary defends the greenhouse effect theory, as it claims that climate change is natural, has been occurring for years, and ice falling from glaciers is just the spring break-up and as normal as leaves falling in autumn.

A source at Channel 4 said: "It is essentially a polemic and we are expecting it to cause trouble, but this is the controversial programming that Channel 4 is renowned for."

Controversial director Martin Durkin said: "You can see the problems with the science of global warming, but people just don't believe you - it's taken ten years to get this commissioned.

"I think it will go down in history as the first chapter in a new era of the relationship between scientists and society. Legitimate scientists - people with qualifications - are the bad guys.

"It is a big story that is going to cause controversy.

"It's very rare that a film changes history, but I think this is a turning point and in five years the idea that the greenhouse effect is the main reason behind global warming will be seen as total bollocks.

"Al Gore might have won an Oscar for ?'An Inconvenient Truth', but the film is very misleading and he has got the relationship between CO2 and climate change the wrong way round."

One major piece of evidence of CO2 causing global warming are ice core samples from Antarctica, which show that for hundreds of years, global warming has been accompanied by higher levels of CO2 in the atmosphere.

In ?'The Great Global Warming Swindle' Al Gore is shown claiming this proves the theory, but palaeontologist Professor Ian Clark claims in the documentary that it actually shows the opposite.

He has evidence showing that warmer spells in the Earth's history actually came an average of 800 years before the rise in CO2 levels.

Prof Clark believes increased levels of CO2 are because the Earth is heating up and not the cause. He says most CO2 in the atmosphere comes from the oceans, which dissolve the gas.

When the temperature increases, more gas is released into the atmosphere and when global temperatures cool, more CO2 is taken in. Because of the immense size of the oceans, he said they take time to catch up with climate trends, and this ?'memory effect' is responsible for the lag.

Scientists in the programme also raise another discrepancy with the official line, showing that most of the recent global warming occurred before 1940, when global temperatures then fell for four decades.

It was only in the late 1970s that the current trend of rising temperatures began.

This, claim the sceptics, is a flaw in the CO2 theory, because the post-war economic boom produced more CO2 and should, according to the consensus, have meant a rise in global temperatures.

The programme claims there appears to be a consensus across science that CO2 is responsible for global warming, but Professor Paul Reiter is shown to disagree.

He said the influential United Nations report on Climate change, that claimed humans were responsible, was a sham.

It claimed to be the opinion of 2,500 leading scientists, but Prof Reiter said it included names of scientists who disagreed with the findings and resigned from the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and said the report was finalised by government appointees.

The CO2 theory is further undermined by claims that billions of pounds is being provided by governments to fund greenhouse effect research, so thousands of scientists know their job depends on the theory continuing to be seen as fact.

The programme claims efforts to reduce CO2 are killing Africans, who have to burn fires inside their home, causing cancer and lung damage, because their governments are being encouraged to use wind and solar panels that are not capable of supplying the continent with electricity, instead of coal and oil-burning power stations that could.

Greenpeace co-founder Patrick Moore is shown saying: "Environmentalists have romanticised peasant life, but this is anti-human.

"They are saying the world's poorest people should have the world's most expensive form of form of energy - really saying they can't have electricity."

Gary Calder, a former editor of New Scientist, is featured in the programme, and has just released a book claiming that clouds are the real reason behind climate change.

?'The Chilling Stars' was written with Danish scientist Henrik Svensmark who published a scientific paper, claiming cosmic rays cause clouds to form, reducing the global temperature. The theory is shown in the programme.

Mr Calder said: "Henrik Svensmark saw that cloudiness varies according to how many atomic particles are coming in from exploded stars - when there are more cosmic rays, there are more clouds.

"However, solar winds bat away many of the cosmic rays and the sun is currently in its most active phase, which would be an explanation for global warming.

"I am a science journalist and in my career I have been told by eminent scientists that black holes do not exist and it is impossible that continents move, but in science the experts are usually wrong.

"For me this is a cracking science story - I don't come from any political position and I'm certainly not funded by the multinationals, although my bank manager would like me to be.

"I talk to scientists and come up with one story, and Al Gore talks to another set of scientists and comes up with a different story.

"So knowing which scientists to talk to is part of the skill. Some, who appear to be disinterested, are themselves getting billions of dollars of research money from the government.

"The few millions of dollars of research money from multinationals can't compare to government funding, so you find the American scientific establishment is all for man-made global warming.

"We have the same situation in Britain The government's chief scientific advisor Sir David King is supposed to be the representative of all that is good in British science, so it is disturbing he and the government are ignoring a raft of evidence against the greenhouse effect being the main driver against climate change."

The programme shows how the global warming research drive began when Margaret Thatcher gave money to scientists to ?'prove' burning coal and oil was harmful, as part of her drive for nuclear power.

Philip Stott, professor emeritus of biogeography at the School of Oriental and African Studies in London , who also features in the film warned the issue was too complex to be down to one single factor, whether CO2 or clouds.

He said: "The greenhouse effect theory worried me from the start because you can't say that just one factor can have this effect.

"The system is too complex to say exactly what the effect of cutting back on CO2 production would be, or indeed of continuing to produce CO2.

"It's ridiculous to see politicians arguing over whether they will allow the global temperature to rise by 2C or 3C."

Mr Stott said the film could mark the point where scientists advocating the greenhouse effect theory, began to lose the argument.

He continued: "It is a brave programme at the moment to give excluded voices their say, and maybe it is just the beginning.

"At the moment, there is almost a McCarthyism movement in science where the greenhouse effect is like a puritanical religion and this is dangerous."

In the programme Nigel Calder says: "The greenhouse effect is seen as a religion and if you don't agree, you are a heretic.

He added: "However, I think this programme will help further debate and scientists not directly involved in global warming studies may begin to study what is being said, become more open-minded and more questioning, but this will happen slowly."
SOURCE
0 Replies
 
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Sun 4 Mar, 2007 03:31 pm
Every time Channel 4 had broadcasted a documentary by Martin Durkin , they had to broadcast a prime-time apology. But with all the trouble this station has momentarily - that doesn't really matter Laughing


Channel 4: The Great Global Warming Swindle
0 Replies
 
Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Sun 4 Mar, 2007 03:45 pm
I don't know anything about the bloke. But sometimes a major embarrassment is followed by extra effort to redeem oneself. At any rate, I'll be watching to see if this one grows any legs.
0 Replies
 
okie
 
  1  
Reply Sun 4 Mar, 2007 08:26 pm
Walter Hinteler wrote:
Every time Channel 4 had broadcasted a documentary by Martin Durkin , they had to broadcast a prime-time apology. But with all the trouble this station has momentarily - that doesn't really matter Laughing


Channel 4: The Great Global Warming Swindle


Walter, does your posting of this mean you are beginning to have a few doubts about this issue?

I like the quote from your link:
"In fact, the experts in the film argue that increased CO2 levels are actually a result of temperature rises, not their cause, and that this alternate view is rarely heard. 'So the fundamental assumption, the most fundamental assumption of the whole theory of climate change due to humans, is shown to be wrong.' "

It was a long time ago, but I think I brought up that very possibility either on this forum or another one.
0 Replies
 
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Mon 5 Mar, 2007 12:10 am
I've posted a link to the source (Foxfyre thought, her link wouldn't be online a longer time).

That's it. I can't watch the program here, so I don't know if it will perhaps change my doubts.

Announcements of tv programs aren't generally something which inform me .... besides that this program is scheduled at that time.
0 Replies
 
McTag
 
  1  
Reply Mon 5 Mar, 2007 12:18 am
Article in the paper on Saturday (I've just read it this morning, maybe it's been mentioned here already) that carbon emissions from shipping much greater than from the aviation industry.

http://environment.guardian.co.uk/climatechange/story/0,,2025726,00.html
0 Replies
 
georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Mon 5 Mar, 2007 12:47 am
Gosh,

There is a whole complex world out there for the self-appointed carbon police to regulate. I'm sure they are breathless with anticipation. How exciting this must be for them and how truly important they must feel - the indispensable self-appointed regulators of everything.
0 Replies
 
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Mon 5 Mar, 2007 12:54 am
georgeob1 wrote:
Gosh,

There is a whole complex world out there for the self-appointed carbon police to regulate. ....


Too true :wink:

And it's more than enough to make headlines Laughing


Smile
0 Replies
 
McTag
 
  1  
Reply Mon 5 Mar, 2007 02:19 am
georgeob1 wrote:
Gosh,

There is a whole complex world out there for the self-appointed carbon police to regulate. I'm sure they are breathless with anticipation. How exciting this must be for them and how truly important they must feel - the indispensable self-appointed regulators of everything.


Isn't that just a tad bitter, George? People are genuinely concerned that the glaciers are disappearing and the seas are coming up.
Any related topics are a legitimate subject for journalism, it seems to me.

Note, I did not comment on the article myself. Of course it takes more fuel to drive a bulk carrier than an aeroplane.
0 Replies
 
Thomas
 
  1  
Reply Mon 5 Mar, 2007 02:44 am
McTag wrote:
Isn't that just a tad bitter, George?

Not at all. I'm sure George is looking forward to the new, improved climate in places like Siberia, Canada, and -- one day, who knows? -- maybe even Antarctica.
0 Replies
 
miniTAX
 
  1  
Reply Mon 5 Mar, 2007 03:36 am
parados wrote:
miniTAX wrote:
This pretty long perspective tells us that temperature is responsible for atmospheric CO2 content and NOT the reverse. Exclamation

Really? How does it do that? We know they correlate.

Here is a simple experiment that you can perform that will show that CO2 affects the heat retention of air.
http://www.beloit.edu/~SEPM/Geology_and_the_enviro/Earth_warming.html

Provide your experiment that shows that heating a container of air increases the amount of CO2.

Lacking any experiment that shows heat causes CO2, I am left with the only logical hypothesis that CO2 is the cause of the heat retention and not the other way around.

Don't bother with your experiment. We have a much better and wide scale experiment: in the past, CO2 varies periodically with temperature about every 100.000 years. And the number of SUV, powerplants, planes, megacities... to spew CO2 was precisely equal to zero. Besides, if you read the article given by Foxfyre, you'll know that CO2 lagged temperature by about 800 years.
Now make your own conclusion.
0 Replies
 
 

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