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Global Warming...New Report...and it ain't happy news

 
 
Steve 41oo
 
  1  
Reply Mon 5 Mar, 2007 04:58 am
The position of the sceptics really puzzles me.

No-one[/b] denies that CO2 is a greenhouse gas. It's transparent to high frequency radiation from the sun, but absorbs the lower freqency radiation reflected from the earth's surface. Furthermore no one denies that there is considerably more CO2 in the atmosphere than before industrialisation. (When we started releasing billions of tonnes of CO2 in a geological blink of the eye, which had hitherto been trapped for eons).

The standard position is that warming is thus anthropogenic, i.e. is a result of man's activities.

But lets take the sceptical argument that warming has caused increased CO2 concentration, and that the Sun is the fundamental culprit. If[/b] that is the case, is that really justification for the continued and unregulated spewing out of carbon dioxide which we all agree is a greenhouse gas? If there is nothing we can do to turn the sun down a bit, dont we have just the same obligation not to make the situation worse by pumping out vast quantities of a known greenhouse gas?

The sceptics position seems to be one of despair. "There is nothing we can do about warming, so turn up the air conditioning while we still have enough fuel".
0 Replies
 
blatham
 
  1  
Reply Mon 5 Mar, 2007 06:52 am
Walter Hinteler wrote:
Every time Channel 4 had broadcasted a documentary by Martin Durkin , they had to broadcast a prime-time apology. But with all the trouble this station has momentarily - that doesn't really matter Laughing


Channel 4: The Great Global Warming Swindle


Quote:
The film features an impressive roll-call of experts, including nine professors

Nine! Count 'em.
0 Replies
 
Steve 41oo
 
  1  
Reply Mon 5 Mar, 2007 07:05 am
David Milliband Environment Secretary (very bright lad, tipped to be a future prime minister) is making an important speech to day.

This is what he has to say about CO2/climate change

Quote:
Its is clear finally that if we carry on with business as ususal with more countries growing in wealth and population, the stock of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere will increase dramatically, with catastrophic consequences


(my emphasis)

Dont forget this is govt minister not a tree hugger.

This is also interesting

Quote:
In the 19th century Britain pioneered the transition to an industrial economy. The Industrial Revolution brought together invention and science, a culture of enterprise and political leadership from our great cities and national government. In the 21st century we are again a transition economy. We need the same combination if we are to make a new transition: from a high carbon to low-carbon society. We need political leadership at a local, national and European level prepared to make bold long term decisions


And how are carbon emissions to be regulated? Why the free market...carbon trading. Cant say anything agaisnt that George surely

Millibrand will say that the "vast majority" of carbon emissions must be covered by a global carbon market.

He calls for Britain to become a "post-oil" economy within 15-20 years.

(This last point I find quite astonishing, unless perhaps Millibrand knows more about oil supplies than he lets on)
0 Replies
 
parados
 
  1  
Reply Mon 5 Mar, 2007 07:31 am
So in a 'natural' cycle - CO2 trails temperature.

That would mean this isn't natural then, wouldn't it?
0 Replies
 
Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Mon 5 Mar, 2007 08:04 am
Steve 41oo wrote:
The position of the sceptics really puzzles me.

No-one[/b] denies that CO2 is a greenhouse gas. It's transparent to high frequency radiation from the sun, but absorbs the lower freqency radiation reflected from the earth's surface. Furthermore no one denies that there is considerably more CO2 in the atmosphere than before industrialisation. (When we started releasing billions of tonnes of CO2 in a geological blink of the eye, which had hitherto been trapped for eons).

The standard position is that warming is thus anthropogenic, i.e. is a result of man's activities.

But lets take the sceptical argument that warming has caused increased CO2 concentration, and that the Sun is the fundamental culprit. If[/b] that is the case, is that really justification for the continued and unregulated spewing out of carbon dioxide which we all agree is a greenhouse gas? If there is nothing we can do to turn the sun down a bit, dont we have just the same obligation not to make the situation worse by pumping out vast quantities of a known greenhouse gas?

The sceptics position seems to be one of despair. "There is nothing we can do about warming, so turn up the air conditioning while we still have enough fuel".


This is at least a reasonable question. But I think the question asked honorably must allow for all possible answers until we arrive at the provable right one.

If in fact the CO2 generated by industrialization turns out to be an insignificant amount of the CO2 driving global warming and/or elimination of industrialization would slow global warming by an insignificant number of months, years or whatever, then why should we turn down the air conditioning or otherwise significantly change our lifestyles? And even more importantly, why should we discourage developing countries from using the resources that can pull their people out of crushing poverty?

Absolutely we should continue to do the research to find and develop alternate and renewable forms of energy that will improve people's lives, protect the environment, and reap all sorts of other benefits beneficial to living things on earth.

We should absolutely not adopt policies that will harm or even inconvenience people if there is no practical reason to do so.
0 Replies
 
McTag
 
  1  
Reply Mon 5 Mar, 2007 08:13 am
Foxfyre wrote:

Absolutely we should continue to do the research to find and develop alternate and renewable forms of energy that will improve people's lives, protect the environment, and reap all sorts of other benefits beneficial to living things on earth.

We should absolutely not adopt policies that will harm or even inconvenience people if there is no practical reason to do so.


Yes, but, for the last fifty years or more we have known that we are running out of raw materials and fossil fuels, and we have done nothing during that time except accelerate the process.

Shortsighted? Blinkered? Blind? Criminally irresponsible? You choose.

Let not Americans be inconvenienced however, even though they consume more than four times other peoples per capita.

Rolling Eyes
0 Replies
 
parados
 
  1  
Reply Mon 5 Mar, 2007 08:21 am
McTag wrote:


Yes, but, for the last fifty years or more we have known that we are running out of raw materials and fossil fuels, and we have done nothing during that time except accelerate the process.

Shortsighted? Blinkered? Blind? Criminally irresponsible? You choose.

Let not Americans be inconvenienced however, even though they consume more than four times other peoples per capita.

Rolling Eyes

It's that "inconvenience" truth.
0 Replies
 
Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Mon 5 Mar, 2007 08:26 am
parados wrote:
McTag wrote:


Yes, but, for the last fifty years or more we have known that we are running out of raw materials and fossil fuels, and we have done nothing during that time except accelerate the process.

Shortsighted? Blinkered? Blind? Criminally irresponsible? You choose.

Let not Americans be inconvenienced however, even though they consume more than four times other peoples per capita.

Rolling Eyes

It's that "inconvenience" truth.


An inconvenient truth for those who cherry pick a phrase out of a post and use that instead of the entire post that explains and/or modifies the cherry picked line. Some of us might think such tactics are.....dishonest comes to mind? If not dishonest, then certainly opportunistic for those whose only pleasure in life seems to be trying to discredit or embarrass others instead of having a productive discussion on a topic.
0 Replies
 
Steve 41oo
 
  1  
Reply Mon 5 Mar, 2007 08:27 am
Foxfyre wrote:
.. But..the question must allow for all.. answers until we arrive at the ....right one.
We've been through this loop. Its called the IPCC. Who came up with an answer you dont like. Some how the phrase inconvenient truth comes to mind, cant think why.
0 Replies
 
Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Mon 5 Mar, 2007 08:30 am
Steve 41oo wrote:
Foxfyre wrote:
.. But..the question must allow for all.. answers until we arrive at the ....right one.
We've been through this loop. Its called the IPCC. Who came up with an answer you dont like. Some how the phrase inconvenient truth comes to mind, cant think why.


See my immediately previous post. And you might want to review all the MANY posts provided that disagree with the IPCC position. The inconvenient truth is that too many have decided they are unwilling to look at anything other than what they have decided they wish to believe.
0 Replies
 
georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Mon 5 Mar, 2007 10:25 am
McTag wrote:
georgeob1 wrote:
Gosh,

There is a whole complex world out there for the self-appointed carbon police to regulate. I'm sure they are breathless with anticipation. How exciting this must be for them and how truly important they must feel - the indispensable self-appointed regulators of everything.


Isn't that just a tad bitter, George? People are genuinely concerned that the glaciers are disappearing and the seas are coming up.
Any related topics are a legitimate subject for journalism, it seems to me.

Note, I did not comment on the article myself. Of course it takes more fuel to drive a bulk carrier than an aeroplane.


Not bitter at all. Only very skeptical of human folly. History is replete with stories of self-appointed reformers, all out ostensibly to save mankind in one way or another, but all revealed as most interested in their own power and self-fulfillment.

The article itself, so full of rather childish wonder at the sudden discovery of the ships that have been carrying human trade and commerce for centuries, and anticipation of the new field for regulation and reform (at their hands of course), unintentionally conveys this aspect of their motivation.

There is no doubt of the increase in CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere in the past century or so and the attendant 0.8 deg C apparent rise in our estimates of global temperatures. Undoubtedly CO2 is among the factors causing the rise. However the predictions of catastrophic warming, accompanied by rapid rises in ocean levels, major shifts in ocean currents, and sudden large excursions in climate are grossly exaggerated. They are not based on the science that is still not able to accurately forecast next month's weather. The intense interest in this subject, given all the far more pressing issues facing various segments of humanity is a very interesting, but hardly flattering, psychological phenomenon.
0 Replies
 
Steve 41oo
 
  1  
Reply Mon 5 Mar, 2007 10:58 am
Well its only recently that ships have been pumping out CO2 (excluding galley slaves that is Smile)

Quote:
However the predictions of catastrophic warming, accompanied by rapid rises in ocean levels, major shifts in ocean currents, and sudden large excursions in climate are grossly exaggerated.


A prediction can only be seen as exaggerated after the fact. Until then its just a prediction, as is your prediction that it will turn out to be exaggerated.

Quote:
They are not based on the science that is still not able to accurately forecast next month's weather.


Surely you mean they are based on the science...

Quote:
The intense interest in this subject, given all the far more pressing issues facing various segments of humanity is a very interesting, but hardly flattering, psychological phenomenon.


I agree some people are getting very agitated. Maybe we should all calm down and relax a little. Or maybe its the relaxed ones who dont understand the seriousness of the situation...

I've read many times by various eminent authorities that the question of global warming and climate change is without doubt the most pressing facing mankind. But then, what do they know...
0 Replies
 
parados
 
  1  
Reply Mon 5 Mar, 2007 11:41 am
Foxfyre wrote:

See my immediately previous post. And you might want to review all the MANY posts provided that disagree with the IPCC position. The inconvenient truth is that too many have decided they are unwilling to look at anything other than what they have decided they wish to believe.


You have done a good job of explaining how everyone you disagree with is refusing to look at facts. You don't seem to be willing to explore your own inability to look at facts you disagree with. When confronted with the factual problems in your theories you state you don't claim you know everything but then turn right back around and do the same thing all over again accusing others that don't agree with you of not looking at all the facts.

Your argument continues in its same circular fashion, over and over, round and round. "Look at all the facts." "Those aren't facts." "I don't know everything but look at all the facts."

As has just been pointed out, there are 9 scientists on one side and 1300 on the other. In my world 9 doesn't equal 1300. In your world we should give the more weight to the 9 than all the other science combined or we aren't being fair. It is YOU that is unwilling to look at things without bias Fox.
0 Replies
 
Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Mon 5 Mar, 2007 12:16 pm
parados wrote:
Foxfyre wrote:

See my immediately previous post. And you might want to review all the MANY posts provided that disagree with the IPCC position. The inconvenient truth is that too many have decided they are unwilling to look at anything other than what they have decided they wish to believe.


You have done a good job of explaining how everyone you disagree with is refusing to look at facts. You don't seem to be willing to explore your own inability to look at facts you disagree with. When confronted with the factual problems in your theories you state you don't claim you know everything but then turn right back around and do the same thing all over again accusing others that don't agree with you of not looking at all the facts.

Your argument continues in its same circular fashion, over and over, round and round. "Look at all the facts." "Those aren't facts." "I don't know everything but look at all the facts."

As has just been pointed out, there are 9 scientists on one side and 1300 on the other. In my world 9 doesn't equal 1300. In your world we should give the more weight to the 9 than all the other science combined or we aren't being fair. It is YOU that is unwilling to look at things without bias Fox.


The difference between you and me, as well as the fallacy in your argument, is that I haven't disagreed with any facts other than those conclusively disproved, nor have I adopted a side in this debate. I am looking at the disagreement that exists. And because of the very good points made by both sides, I am unwilling at this time to take a firm position on the issue because I'm still unashamedly in the "I don't know" camp despite your attempt to make that a negative thing. I also unashamedly lean toward the skeptics arguments at this time because they seem to have more credibility than the IPCC does at this time. A least to me. That is not the same thing as picking a side, however.

I am strongly in favor of majority rule when a decision does not affect anybody's unalienable, civil, or Constitutional rights. I don't think majority rule is a good way to do science.

Meanwhile, some of the IPCC support may be unraveling. If correct, here is a substantial crack in it (emphasis mine):

Quote:
Claude Allegre, one of France's leading socialists and among her most celebrated scientists, was among the first to sound the alarm about the dangers of global warming.

"By burning fossil fuels, man increased the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere which, for example, has raised the global mean temperature by half a degree in the last century," Dr. Allegre, a renowned geochemist, wrote 20 years ago in Cles pour la geologie.." Fifteen years ago, Dr. Allegre was among the 1500 prominent scientists who signed "World Scientists' Warning to Humanity," a highly publicized letter stressing that global warming's "potential risks are very great" and demanding a new caring ethic that recognizes the globe's fragility in order to stave off "spirals of environmental decline, poverty, and unrest, leading to social, economic and environmental collapse."

In the 1980s and early 1990s, when concern about global warming was in its infancy, little was known about the mechanics of how it could occur, or the consequences that could befall us. Since then, governments throughout the western world and bodies such as the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change have commissioned billions of dollars worth of research by thousands of scientists. With a wealth of data now in, Dr. Allegre has recanted his views. To his surprise, the many climate models and studies failed dismally in establishing a man-made cause of catastrophic global warming. Meanwhile, increasing evidence indicates that most of the warming comes of natural phenomena. Dr. Allegre now sees global warming as over-hyped and an environmental concern of second rank.

SOURCE
0 Replies
 
cjhsa
 
  1  
Reply Mon 5 Mar, 2007 12:27 pm
Global warming is becoming the abortion-like issue of the 21st century. Way too much emotion and not enough sound logic.

Fact is we'll all be gone for 25,000 years before any global warming or cooling trend can be effectively recorded, much less attributed to anything.

http://www.aperfectworld.org/cartoons/end_is_near.png
0 Replies
 
parados
 
  1  
Reply Mon 5 Mar, 2007 12:55 pm
Let me ask you a simple question Fox. On what basis do you think the skeptics have more credibility? Which skeptics do you believe have better science backing them up?
0 Replies
 
Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Mon 5 Mar, 2007 01:04 pm
parados wrote:
Let me ask you a simple question Fox. On what basis do you think the skeptics have more credibility? Which skeptics do you believe have better science backing them up?


I'm no scientist and therefore am not in a position to say who has the better science. My "leanings" are based on conversations with people I trust who do unerstand this stuff, with people like some here on A2K who make superior arguments, and the fact that I don't think you can name many, if any, credible climatologists who are advocating AGW as a significant problem unless their funding is depedent on that being a problem. That some non-climatologists have reviewed a paper and signed off that it looks good to them is not persuasive to me. I was quite aware of all this stuff during the global cooling hype of the 70's and there was broad consensus then too.

Why are you so sure the skeptics are using faulty science if that is at least in part a basis for your opinion?
0 Replies
 
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Mon 5 Mar, 2007 01:05 pm
Quote:
credible climatologists


What makes a climatologist, credible, in your non-scientific view? What bases do you look at to decide whether or not they are credible?

Cycloptichorn
0 Replies
 
Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Mon 5 Mar, 2007 01:07 pm
If nobody has been able to show they're crackpots--and I'm quite convinced that they would have been exposed by their critics if they were--then they're credible.
0 Replies
 
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Mon 5 Mar, 2007 01:13 pm
Foxfyre wrote:
That some non-climatologists have reviewed a paper and signed off that it looks good to them is not persuasive to me.


However, Allègre, a retired geochemist, is persasive. (He' still working with the Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris [geology, geochemistry, geophysics, and seismology], so the retirement is not a problem.)

Why in this case?
0 Replies
 
 

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